Newcastle United (18 wins, 4 losses, 11 draws) welcomes Arsenal (24-4-6) to St. James’ Park Sunday. Kickoff is set for 11:30 a.m. ET. Below, we preview BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Newcastle United vs. Arsenal odds, and make our best EPL bets, picks and predictions.
Arsenal had been atop the Premier League for most of the season, but the Reds are just 1-1-3 over their last 5 games, allowing surging Manchester City to take over 1st place.
Arsenal did win its last outing, a 3-1 home victory over Chelsea Tuesday. Currently in 2nd place, Arsenal is led offensively by F Martinelli, who has a team-best 15 goals. MF Martin Odegaard (14 goals), F Bukayo Saka (13) and F Gabriel Jesus (10) are the other Arsenal players with double-digit goals.
Newcastle United’s strength has been its defense as the Magpies have allowed the fewest goals in the league (27). Offensively, they’ve scored 61 goals and have the 3rd-best goal differential (+34). Newcastle United is 3rd on the table, behind Man City (79 points) and Arsenal (78). Newcastle is 10-1-5 at home this season and has won 8 of its last 9. The Magpies have won 4 straight home matches, including a 6-1 win over 7th-place Tottenham Hotspur April 23.
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Newcastle United vs. Arsenal odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 6:21 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Newcastle United +150 (bet $100 to win $150) | Arsenal +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Draw +260
- Over/Under: 2.5 (O: -165 | U: +120)
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Newcastle United vs. Arsenal picks and predictions
Prediction
Newcastle United 3, Arsenal 2
Moneyline (ML)
BET NEWCASTLE UNITED (+150).
Newcastle has been absolutely shredding teams lately, and the games really haven’t been close. It had double its opponents’ expected goals in 3 straight games, tripling its opponent in 2 of the 3.
Newcastle beat Tottenham 6-1, Everton 4-1 and Southampton 3-1 in the past few weeks. It also defeated Man U 2-0 and Wolverhampton 2-1 along with Tottenham and Southampton in its last 4 home games.
Newcastle is just playing much better right now than Arsenal. The Reds bounced back against Chelsea, which has struggled all season. Arsenal has lost to both Man City and Man U on the road, its only other games against top-4 EPL sides.
Put it all together and TAKE NEWCASTLE UNITED (+150).
Over/Under (O/U)
LEAN OVER 2.5 (-165).
The logic is to bet Over 2.5, but the value isn’t with the juice being -165.
Newcastle has gone Over in 8 of its last 9 and has allowed at least 1 goal in 12 of its last 13 EPL matches. It will take on an aggressive offense. Newcastle has also averaged over 3 goals per game across its last 6 games.
Arsenal has gone Over this total in 10 straight matches and has scored 2 or more goals in 9 of those contests.
Both teams should be able to score in this battle, and OVER 2.5 (-165) is the only way I would play this but only for a small unit given the value.
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