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The New York Mets (41-46) open a 3-game road series against the San Diego Padres (41-46) Friday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Mets lead 2-1
The Mets are hot. New York has won 5 straight games — all against the NL West — and is coming off a 3-game sweep over the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks in the first half of a 6-game road trip. The Mets closed out the series with a 9-0 shutout win on Thursday.
The Padres are also coming off a series sweep. San Diego took all 3 games at home against the Los Angeles Angels, a series punctuated with a 5-3 victory on Wednesday. The Friars went 5-12 in the 17 games prior to their series with the Angels.
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Mets at Padres projected starters
RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Yu Darvish
Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 64 IP.
- Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home win over San Francisco Giants on Saturday
- Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 11 starts
Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 80 IP.
- Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 road loss to Giants on June 21
- Went 1-2 with 7.71 ERA in last 3 starts before missing a couple of turns due to a non-COVID-19 illness
Mets at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
- Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)
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Mets at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Mets 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
The Mets have allowed only 11 runs during their 5-game win streak and have won 4 of their last 5 road games. Verlander has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of 11 starts this season and only 1 run across his last 2 outings.
Darvish is making his first start since June 21 and had a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 outings.
BET METS (+105).
Run line/Against the spread
The Mets’ 36-51 ATS record is the 2nd-worst in the league, but they have covered the spread in 6 straight games and in 9 out of their last 12.
The Padres have covered the spread in 5 straight games but were 3-12 ATS in their previous 15. They are 10-15 ATS as home favorites.
However, since we’re going with the Mets to win outright Friday that’s a much better value than taking Mets +1.5 (-200) with the run of insurance.
PASS.
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Over/Under
Verlander’s last 4 starts, and 5 out of his last 6, had fewer than 8 total runs.
Nine out of the Padres’ last 10 games have reached at least 8 total runs.
Four of the Mets’ last 5 have reached at least 8 runs but 5 of their last 10 have not.
With how Verlander has been pitching, I LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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