New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings odds and lines, with expert NFL picks, predictions and best bets.

The New England Patriots (6-4) face the Minnesota Vikingss (8-2) as Minnesota hosts a Thanksgiving game for the 1st time in its history. Thursday’s kick at US Bank Stadium is 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock). Below, we analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Patriots vs. Vikings and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.

Both teams are coming off unusual games that made history.

The Patriots and Jets didn’t score an offensive touchdown and it took an 84-yard punt return touchdown by rookie Marcus Jones with 5 seconds left to give the Patriots an improbable 10-3 win over New York.

On the flip side, the Vikings suffered their worst home defeat in 60 years in a 40-3 humbling by the Dallas Cowboys that has Minnesota’s postseason stock sinking like a rock despite an 8-2 record and the current No. 2 playoff seed in the NFC.

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Patriots at Vikings odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:27 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Patriots +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Vikings -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Patriots +3 (-117) | Vikings -3 (-103)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 42 (O: -111 | U: -109)

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Patriots at Vikings key injuries

Patriots

  • C David Andrews (thigh) questionable
  • WR DeVante Parker (knee) questionable
  • G Isaiah Wynn (foot) out

Vikings

  • CB Andrew Booth Jr. (knee) out
  • OT Christian Darrisaw (concussion) out
  • DT Dalvin Tomlinson (calf) questionable

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Patriots at Vikings picks and predictions

Prediction

Vikings 23, Patriots 17

Moneyline

PASS

The only way this bet makes sense is if you believe the Patriots will win. I do not, so I’ll look for better return on Minnesota laying a field goal.

Against the spread

VIKING -3 (103)

The Vikings have specialized in finding ways to win close games and this game has all the looks of falling into that category.

The Patriots offense doesn’t have game-breaking stars, but a collection of role players who do their job at a high level. Minnesota has more star talent on both sides of the ball capable of making the big play that tilts a game in their favor.

Both teams saw their offenses exposed last week so one or both needs to prove that last week was an outlier and not what to expect moving forward.

Over/Under

UNDER 42 (-109)

This bet is a combination of a couple of things. The Patriots have allowed 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 6 games. Their defense has remained strong despite an offense that runs hot and cold.

The Vikings have been in many more high-scoring games, but the Patriots will force their secondary players to do more because a specialty of Bill Belichick is to take away a team’s most dynamic offense player, which for the Vikings is wide receiver Justin Jefferson.

The loss of Darrisaw will hurt Minnesota’s offense, but the Patriots will be without Wynn and possibly Andrews on their O-line, which should play to the advantage of defenses. It may take a defensive or special teams touchdown to go Over so take the Under 42 (-109).

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