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What ten college football games appear to be the best bets and the best picks against the spread going into Week 13? Here you go. Enjoy.
Week 13 Fearless Predictions, Game Previews
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– CFN Fearless Predictions & Game Previews
– Week 13 Expert Picks & Predictions
Contact @PeteFiutak
10 Best ATS Picks So Far: 65-58
Click on each game for the game preview and fearless prediction.
And the ten games that appear to be a wee bit favorable are …
10. Samford at Auburn
LINE: Auburn -48.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Samford
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
For those of you new to the program, here’s the tried-and-true, blind-faith belief system that’s worked really, really well this year.
If the world wants to give a team 40 points or more, you take them, you say “thank you,” and you move on.
There are a whole slew of things that have to happen to win by more than 40 points – it’s actually hard to do.
Sometimes a team shows mercy – like Ohio State did against Rutgers last week – and sometimes a team isn’t good enough to win by a bazillion, like Northwestern not covering against UMass.
However, there are a few things to take into account when it comes to the FBS vs. FCS matchups late in the season. 1) Is it the final home game for the FBSer? If it is, the starters will likely stay in a bit longer. Alabama is coming to Auburn next week. 2) Does the team need a week off to rest everyone?
You ready to play the deep cut on this?
The last two times Auburn played a wipeout paycheck game at home before going to Alabama, it won it brutal blowouts – by 53 over Liberty last year, and 55-0 against Alabama A&M in 2016. However …
The last few times it was the game BEFORE Senior Day – like it is this year? 42-14 over ULM in 2017, 56-34 over Idaho in 2015, 35-16 over Samford in 2011, 62-24 over UT Chattanooga in 2010, and 37-20 over UT Martin in 2008.
The gods are handing you 48.5 points AND a wacky trend/streak?
In this case, Samford actually has a fun enough offense that it can luck its way into a touchdown or two against the backups.
And from the Department of Oh Screw It, We’ve Come This Far With The Theme …
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9. Arkansas at LSU
LINE: LSU -43.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Arkansas
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Take everything that was just said about the FBS vs. FCS thing, and apply it to this.
The Arkansas Razorbacks will get up Saturday morning up 43.5-0.
LSU can win the SEC West with a victory, but it has bigger fish to fry next week against Texas A&M and the week after against Georgia in – most likely – the SEC Championship.
It’s not Senior Day – that’s next week – so this is just about coming up with an instant wipeout and then sitting everyone possible. Also, as dominant as LSU has been, it hasn’t won a game by more than 43 against an FBS team since the 55-3 win over Georgia Southern in the opener.
One more thing. After what happened last week to Tua Tagovailoa, but watch out for some teams to be a bit spooked about how long the superstar starting quarterback keeps playing in a blowout.
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8. Pitt at Virginia Tech
LINE: Virginia Tech -3.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Virginia Tech
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Stick with the hot hand. It’s the last home game of the year for a Virginia Tech team that’s in the thick of the ACC Coastal hunt. Pitt is, too, but the Hokies have rolled in their last two games, played Notre Dame well, and has won five of their last six games. Pitt is hot, too – winning six of its last seven – but the Hokies are sharper. You’re only giving away an extra half point taking the home team.
7. Nevada at Fresno State
LINE: Fresno State -14
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Nevada
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
This isn’t the Fresno State of the last two years. The defense isn’t nearly as nasty, it lost three of its last four, and the only win so far by more than 14 is over UNLV. The Bulldogs just played San Diego State – and lost – while Nevada has had two weeks off since winning on the road in San Diego. The Wolf Pack were blown away by Utah State and Wyoming on the road by a total score of 67-13 in their previous two road games, but the Bulldogs just aren’t that potent.
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6. Nebraska at Maryland
LINE: Nebraska -4.5
Live Stream: fuboTV (click to watch for free)
ATS PICK: Nebraska
– Bet on this, BetMGM latest line
Nebraska has last four straight and five of its last six. It can’t seem to do much of anything right, and that includes only scoring 13 in a win over a miserable Northwestern team. However, the offense started to click last week against Wisconsin, Adrian Martinez played well, and the team wasn’t that bad in a 37-21 loss.
Maryland is rested after two weeks off, and it’s the home finale, but it hasn’t come closer than six of anyone but Rutgers since losing to Temple 20-17 back in mid-September. Basically, Nebraska is bad, but Maryland is a whole lot worse.
