Reed Sheppard is the exact same player right now that he was last week.
There is no other way to put it: Kentucky’s Reed Sheppard simply did not perform well when his team was upset by Oakland in March Madness.
Even though fans perhaps shouldn’t have been so surprised by the win, the poor performance from Sheppard was a bit more shocking. He ended with just 3 points (1-of-5 FG) and a couple turnovers in 26 minutes. It was likely his worst game played in college.
Kentucky head coach John Calipari had no match for the zone defense that Oakland played against his backcourt. It stopped Sheppard and his teammate Rob Dillingham from ever getting much momentum.
Obviously, that was a pretty lousy showing in an elimination game from a prospect who was recently projected as the No. 1 overall pick in the 2024 NBA Draft. But even if that prediction was a bit ambitious and aggressive, this was hardly a game that should make teams reconsider their evaluation of Sheppard.
The reality is that evaluators have far more data points to look at than just one match when it comes to the standout Kentucky freshman. While that was perhaps the first time that many fans caught of glimpse his game, he is someone that NBA teams have studied for a much larger sample size.
Sheppard averaged 15.5 points, 5.1 rebounds, 5.6 assists, and 3.1 steals per 36 minutes as a freshman. He shot 53.6 percent from the field, 52.1 percent on 3-pointers and 83.1 percent from the free-throw line. His versatility and productivity are undeniable.
Among all freshmen listed at 6-foot-5 or shorter since 2008, per Bart Torik, here are the only players to perform better in the catch-all metric box plus-minus: James Harden and D’Angelo Russell.
When playing in a set offense, Sheppard was still one of the most efficient players in all of college basketball. His catch-and-shoot jumper makes him an elite threat when playing off the ball and he also manages ways to fill the stat sheet in other meaningful ways as well.
Sheppard probably doesn’t have the size or the athletic burst to make a real case as one of the first few names called in the 2024 NBA Draft. But he can shoot from NBA distance as well as any prospect in the nation.
Perhaps a team is more weary about selecting Sheppard with one of the first few picks in this class. But especially in a draft full of uncertainty, virtually every prospect will have some negative traits in their scouting report.
If he decides to declare for the 2024 NBA Draft and remain in, which he likely will and should, the trajectory looks about the same for Sheppard as it did before the dud against Oakland. Remember: This is the same player who was torching Tennessee for 27 points earlier this month.
He generally fared well against top opponents and while March Madness didn’t go well, his resumé is still strong enough to earn lottery consideration.
So long as he does well in the pre-draft process and impresses during interviews and workouts and measurements, Sheppard’s draft stock should look exactly the same as it did last week. Now, he has added motivation and a chip on his shoulder.
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