NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 best underdog pick best upset prediction

March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Friday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

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Week 2 of March Madness is upon us. The madness? That’s mostly the upsets that happen in just about every bracket region every year. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Friday’s action includes games in the Midwest Region semifinals i Kansas City and the South Region semis i Louisville. The combatants come from chalky and not-so-chalky parts of the brackets. The best upset opportunity lies with a tweener seed in the South.

See Top 25: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:38 p.m. ET.

SAN DIEGO STATE +7.5 (-110) vs. Alabama – 6:30 p.m. ET.

The 5th-seeded Aztecs — the No. 18 team in the nation — are the champions of the Mountain West Conference. San Diego State has defeated 12-seed Charleston and 13-seed Furman this far in this tournament. It is 12-1 since the beginning of February.

Top-seeded and 2nd-ranked-nationally Alabama presents a different challenge for SDSU. The Aztecs have played 3 other KenPom top-20 teams this season. They registered losses by 17 points to Arizona (Nov. 22), 4 to Arkansas (Nov. 23) and 7 to Saint Mary’s (Dec. 10).

But this is a live underdog. San Diego State is likely due some shooting regression on offense, but its defense is tremendous. Over their last 13 games, the Aztecs have held opponents to 57.5 points per game on a 37.7% mark from the floor.

Alabama is the much younger team in this matchup. The Crimson Tide can be a bit inconsistent, and they often rely a great deal on a significant home-court edge.

Both of these teams defend the perimeter at elite levels. But that should affect Alabama’s offense — one that relies on triples to a great degree — much more than SDSU’s.

Then there is the pace of this matchup, with the Tide playing the rabbit and the Aztecs playing the turtle. Of its last 8 against-the-spread losses, 6 games were against slow-tempo foes.

This game going into the final minute would not be a surprise, and some bettors may want to pair the ATS play with some moneyline (SAN DIEGO STATE +260) action.

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March Madness: Thursday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

With a fun and upset-laden 1st week in the books, the NCAA Tournament rolls into week No. 2. After looking at Tipico Sportsbook’s NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks and predictions.

Thursday’s 4 Sweet 16 games will be held in Las Vegas at T-Mobile Arena and in New York at Madison Square Garden. The opener in Vegas features the best upset target of the night.

Check out: USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll

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Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:14 p.m. ET.

ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) vs. UConn – 7:15 p.m. ET.

Arkansas went 8-10 in a strong SEC and was ousted in the SEC Tournament after 1 win. When the Razorbacks entered this tourney, they came in having lost 4 of their last 5.

But this is also a UA team that from Jan. 21-Feb. 21 went 7-3 with wins over well-regarded teams like Kentucky and Texas A&M. Over that stretch, the Razorbacks registered a 67-64 loss at Baylor.

Analytic measures for Arkansas are solid. The UA team plays at a fast tempo, with efficient defense and abilities to force turnovers and block shots at standout levels. On offense, the Razorbacks like to get their points in 2-by-2 fashion. When they do get 3, it’s likely on an and-1; Arkansas is not a frequent launcher of triples (348th NCAA-I in frequency of 3-point attempts). Nor should it be: UA is shooting just 31.3% from distance.

UConn does shoot a lot of 3s. If the Huskies have a great night from beyond the arc, they’ll win and cover. But Arkansas is a top-25 squad in defending the perimeter. Over their last 9 games, the Razorbacks have held foes to a 25% mark from 3-point range. In a neutral-site contest, the contrasting-offensive-styles battle can often sway toward the side getting its buckets at the rim on the blocks.

UConn should have the edge on the boards, but the Huskies can be loose with the basketball. If Arkansas can stay on a roll in forcing turnovers, Connecticut can be had in the transition game. UA is 6-1 in its last 7 neutral-site games, and ARKANSAS +4.5 (-118) is solid play Thursday. Some aggressive bettors may want to pair this action with RAZORBACKS (+160) on the moneyline.

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March Madness: Friday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Friday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

Thursday’s Sweet 16 action brought upsets of No. 1 seeds Gonzaga and Arizona. So, who’s next?

After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Friday’s games include a blowout favorite (No. 3 seed Purdue by 12.5 points over No. 15 seed St. Peter’s ), a touchdown favorite (No. 1 seed Kansas by 7.5 over fourth-seeded Providence), and two one-possession lines (No. 4 seed UCLA by 2.5 over No. 8 seed North Carolina, and 10th-seeded Miami by 2.5 over No. 11 seed Iowa State ). That final game of the night is the most intriguing, and the mercurial Cyclones make for a solid straight-up upset play.

See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

Friday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at x:xx a.m. ET.

Iowa State +2.5 (-107) vs. Miami – 8:59 p.m. ET

ISU went 7-11 in a strong Big 12 field during the regular season. The Cyclones were then bounced by current-No. 11 Texas Tech in their league-tourney opener. After a week off, Iowa State returned to action with an 59-54 upset win over analytics darling LSU in the first round of the NCAA Tournament (March 18). The Cyclones then defeated No. 3 seed Wisconsin 54-49 in another low-scoring tussle to advance to this Midwest Region semifinal in Chicago.

Iowa State is certainly no offensive juggernaut. The Cyclones shot 34% over its three postseason games, but they play an elite-level, ballhawking defense. While, Miami does take care of the basketball, it figures to be challenged by this veteran ISU defense, which is adept at creating turnovers. Against very good competition, Iowa State has forced over 15 turnovers per game over its last five.

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If ISU can get some turnover-transition buckets and haul down a fair number of offensive rebounds (against a down-trending-on-the-boards Hurricane five), the Cyclones could very well be in front down the stretch. On offense, Iowa State is solid around the rim, and that’s a point of differential in this matchup. UM’s interior defense is nothing special.

The 2021-22 Cyclones have been a team of winning and losing streaks. IOWA STATE IS A SOLID PLAY ATS (+2.5, -107) and on the MONEY LINE (ISU +125).

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March Madness: Thursday’s best NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 underdog upset pick and prediction

Assessing Thursday’s NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 betting odds and lines, tabbing the best underdog upset pick and prediction.

The first crazy weekend of March Madness is sadly behind us. Now we’ll get a weekend with 12 high-stakes games starting on Thursday with No. 1 Gonzaga taking on No. 4 Arkansas. The Elite Eight will kick off on Saturday and go into Sunday.

After looking at NCAA Tournament odds and lines, here is Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick among our expert college basketball picks, predictions and bets.

Fans will be treated to two of the three remaining No. 1 seeds taking the court. In addition to the Zags and Arizona, No. 2 Villanova and No. 3 Texas Tech will enter as favorites for Thursday’s games.

Two games (Texas Tech-Duke and Arizona-Houston) are a mere 1.5-point spread while Gonzaga at 9.5 is the largest spread. That said, let’s break down an underdog to back on Thursday.

See also: Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports

Thursday’s best Sweet 16 upset pick

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Wednesday at 7:27 p.m. ET.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: March Madness Sweet 16 betting primer

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No. 5 Houston Cougars +1.5 (-107) vs. No. 1 Arizona Wildcats – 9:59 p.m. ET

The Houston Cougars beat the No. 12 UAB Blazers to kick off their run in the tournament. They then faced No. 4 Illinois, one of the best teams in the Big Ten with C Kofi Cockburn, who was second in the conference in points per game at 21.1.

The Cougars were undersized compared to Cockburn, but coach Kelvin Sampson’s game plan execution was perfect, holding the 7-foot center to 19 points and limiting the Fighting Illini’s other scoring options.

While their figures could be inflated due to a weak schedule in the AAC, Houston joins Gonzaga as the only team in the nation with both a top 10 offensive and defensive efficiency rating per Kenpom, which has the Cougars as the second-best team in the country.

Furthermore, the Cougars have the best offensive rebounding rate in the nation, per teamrankings. Considering that Arizona gave up 20 offensive boards to TCU, Houston’s dominance on the glass could be a major advantage.

Arizona is a solid side and has arguably the best scorer in the nation in G Bennedict Mathurin, who willed the Wildcats to victory with a last-possession three to force OT.

I wouldn’t bet on him doing that again. I’ll take the Cougars to continue their impressive tournament run.

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