Projecting the rest of the Duke football season using ESPN FPI

Breaking down the latest record projection for Duke football using the Football Power Index produced by ESPN.

Even with three losses in their past four games, the Duke Blue Devils already did the hard part of reaching six wins for the 2024 college football season.

Now, with three games left ahead on the schedule, the only question for first-year head coach [autotag]Manny Diaz[/autotag] and his team is how many wins they can stack before the end of the regular season.

While the ESPN Football Power Index remains pretty pessimistic on the Blue Devils as a whole, keeping them outside of the top 60 teams in the country and the top 10 of the ACC despite their 6-3 record, Duke is still projected to finish with 7.6 wins. In fact, ESPN Analytics thinks there’s more than a 14% chance that Diaz wins his last three games for a 9-3 record in his debut season.

Here’s a breakdown of the final three games on the schedule and Duke’s chances to emerge with a win in the eyes of ESPN FPI.

NC State Wolfpack (Week 11)

Estimated Win Percentage: 54.4%

The Wolfpack have won each of their past two games to pull themselves to 5-4, and true freshman quarterback CJ Bailey has played a major role in the late-season reemergence. The first-year passer has thrown for 1,141 yards and nine touchdowns in his past four games, including a three-touchdown performance during last week’s 59-28 win over Stanford.

However, this two-game win streak has come against California and Stanford, two teams with a combined 1-9 conference record, and the Golden Bears came within a missed 28-yard field goal of winning anyway. Duke should be favored, even if the oddsmakers disagree.

Record: 7-3 (3-3)

Virginia Tech Hokies (Week 13)

Estimated Win Percentage: 38.7%

The Hokies fell to 5-4 on Saturday thanks to an overtime loss to Syracuse, but quarterback Kyron Drones and star running back Bhayshul Tuten both didn’t touch the ball during the defeat. Considering that the duo is responsible for 1,274 yards and 18 touchdowns on the ground, even ignoring Drones’ passing production, and the Hokies still took a 6-2 Syracuse team to extra time on the road paints a good picture of why this Virginia Tech team is so scary.

Record: 7-4 (3-4)

Wake Forest Demon Deacons (Week 14)

Estimated Win Percentage: 66.3%

In a similar situation to the Wolfpack, Wake Forest beat Connecticut and Stanford to pull itself back to 4-4 for the season so far. However, the Demon Deacons beat the Cardinal by three points thanks to a late interception on the final drive. During Stanford’s six-game losing streak, the other five teams won by an average of 30.6 points. Wake Forest would need another conference win or two before this game to close this gap.

Record: 8-4 (4-4)

Broadcast information revealed for Duke football game against NC State in Week 11

The ACC revealed its Week 11 television schedule on Saturday, including a game time and channel for Duke vs. NC State.

The Duke Blue Devils travel to Raleigh next weekend for an in-state battle with the NC State Wolfpack, and the ACC officially gave the game a kickoff time on Saturday.

Duke and NC State will play at 3:30 p.m. Eastern time on Saturday, November 9. The game will broadcast on ACC Network.

The Wolfpack have won two straight games to improve to 5-4 for the season, beating the Stanford Cardinal 59-28 on Saturday to move back above .500. True freshman quarterback CJ Bailey was thrust into the starting role after injuries forced Coastal Carolina transfer Grayson McCall to retire, and the 6-foot-6 newcomer has responded well to the challenge. He threw for 234 yards and three touchdowns against Stanford, giving him 1,141 yards, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions over his last four games.

Despite the recent improvement, the Wolfpack have yet to beat a Power Four team with a winning record.

Duke beat NC State handily in Durham last year, a 24-3 victory anchored by 123 rushing yards from Jordan Waters. Waters, of course, transferred to the Wolfpack this offseason, and he’s compiled 375 yards and four touchdowns with his new team in 2024.

North Carolina State QB Grayson McCall hangs up the cleats, medically retires

It is unfortunate that this talented quarterback had to step away from the game he loves so much.

On Wednesday night it was announced that North Carolina State quarterback Grayson McCall would retire from the game of football for medical reasons. McCall hasn’t played in a game since Oct. 5 against Wake Forest. He left the game with a concussion after only throwing five passes, the Demon Deacons went on to win the game, 34-30.

Since that date, the Wolfpack have waited for McCall to get healthy and return to the team as the starter. 247Sports reported the news.

“Brain specialists, my family and I have come to the conclusion that it’s in my best interest to hang the cleats up,” McCall said.

“As I feel like my whole world is being taken from me, I feel some sense of contentment. Every time my feet hit the grass, I left every single ounce of myself on that field. I always played my hardest and to the best of my ability because I never knew what play would be my last. I have no regrets throughout my career and that is something I can be proud of. I want to use this time to show my appreciation to everyone who has been along for the ride. To my family, friends, teammates, fans and all the coaches who have poured into me over the years, I want to say thank you from the bottom of my heart. Without you all, none of this would have ever been possible.”

McCall transferred from Coastal Carolina over the offseason, where he played for five seasons. During that time he threw for 10,005 yards with 88 touchdowns to 14 interceptions. This season with the Wolfpack, McCall threw for 518 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions in four games.

I strongly doubt this is the last we hear from Grayson McCall. His strong passion for the game will likely lead him back to the game in some capacity.

NC State quarterback announces his retirement from football due to injury

NC State quarterback Grayson McCall announced his retirement from the sport on Wednesday, citing medical advice following a recent injury.

Grayson McCall, who entered the 2024 college football season as the starting quarterback for the NC State Wolfpack, announced his retirement through an Instagram post on Wednesday.

“I have battled injuries my whole career, but this is one that I cannot come back from,” McCall wrote. “Brain specialists, my family, and I have come to the conclusion that it is in my best interest to hang the cleats up.”

McCall had not played since an October 5 game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons when he took a scary hit to the head. A trio of defenders closed on him at the same time, knocking off his helmet during the tackle. He was carted off the field and taken to a hospital, but he was released later that same day.

It was the second time McCall left a game and went to a hospital with a head injury over the past two seasons. As the quarterback for Coastal Carolina in 2023, he spent a night in a hospital after a hit against Arkansas State last October.

“I look forward to taking my passion and love for the game into the coaching space to serve and lead the next group of kids with a dream,” McCall wrote on Wednesday.

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The Blue Devils are scheduled to play NC State in Raleigh on November 9.

Trio of ACC head coaches on the hot seat heading into Week 5

Three ACC coaches are feeling the pressure as the hot seat warms up heading into Week 5 of the college football season.

The 2024 college football season is roughly one third of the way over, giving fans enough time to determine which programs are legit contenders and who might need to reevaluate things at the end of the year – if not sooner.

There’s a little bit of both in the ACC, with Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes looking like legit contenders to not only win the ACC, but to compete for a national championship.

The Clemson Tigers stumbled in Week 1 but have looked much better under Dabo Swinney, while much has been made about the massively surprising early season struggles seen by Mike Norvell’s Florida State Seminoles.

Three ACC coaches are feeling their seat get a little warmer after about one month of game action, and we detail what a buyout would look like for each coach and what they need to do the rest of the season to keep their job heading into 2025:

Mack Brown – North Carolina Tar Heels

North Carolina has a Mack Brown problem. Brown of course took the Tar Heels from complete obscurity to national relevance in the 1990’s, going 1-10 in 1988 and 1989 and then 67-26-1 from 1990-1997, a streak which included Peach Bowl, Carquest Bowl, and Gator Bowl victories.

Brown returned to Chapel Hill in 2019 after a five year absence, having spent 1998-2013 leading Texas to 158 wins and 10 bowl victories. Brown helped revitalize North Carolina football for a second time, leading the Tar Heels to five straight seasons of bowl eligibility – although UNC is just 1-4 in said games.

Now, after the team was properly thrashed by James Madison at home in Week 4, losing 70-50, it’s clear North Carolina needs to make a change.

Brown is a college football legend, and has a huge role in the history of North Carolina football – a role it would be sad to see him tarnish by hanging on too long. His contract runs through 2027, and would cost the ‘Heels $20 million to buyout, but perhaps a mutual parting of ways is the best path forward for both parties.

Dave Doeren – NC State Wolfpack

Brown isn’t the only ACC coach in the state of North Carolina who is feeling the pressure so far this season. Dave Doeren is under fire after a disaster start to the season for NC State. The Wolfpack are 2-2 so far this year, suffering a 41 point loss at home against Tennessee in Week 2 and then giving up a whopping 59 points to Clemson in Week 4, losing by 24 points.

Doeren has long had difficulty winning big games, and for the Wolfpack to ever compete for more than just bowl eligibility they need someone who can lead them to big time victories.

Buying out Doeren would cost the school just under $35 million, a hefty sum for a coach who has won eight or more games in six of the past seven seasons. It’s unlikely, but if this team fails to qualify for a bowl game there will be unrest in Raleigh.

Mike Norvell – Florida State Seminoles

Mike Norvell felt his seat cool thanks to a Week 4 victory over Cal, although it certainly didn’t inspire a ton of confidence. Coming into the season with expectations of competing for a national championship and going undefeated, Florida State hasn’t looked anywhere near that level this month.

FSU offensive coordinator Alex Atkins returned in Week 4 after a three-game suspension, but the ‘Noles managed just 14 points at home against the Golden Bears – a clear sign the offense still has a lot of work to do.

It would cost Florida State roughly $65 million to move on, and for a school that has had financial instability, firing a coach who led them to an undefeated regular season and ACC championship last year seems very unlikely.

Still, it’s fair to say any momentum Norvell gained last year is now completely gone, and while this team could still right the ship and qualify for a bowl game, his seat will remain on the warm setting all season long.

Duke basketball hosts NC State and North Carolina in consecutive home games

The 2024-25 Duke men’s basketball schedule was revealed on Tuesday night, and the two biggest home games come within one week of each other.

The Duke men’s basketball schedule for the 2024-25 season was revealed on Tuesday, and the two biggest home games on the calendar come within six days of each other.

The Blue Devils host NC State, their in-state rival who eliminated them from last year’s NCAA Tournament, at Cameron Indoor Stadium on Monday, January 27. The very next game? The first of two battles against the North Carolina Tar Heels the following Saturday, also on home court.

The Blue Devils built a 27-21 lead after the first half in last year’s Elite Eight battle, but NC State scored 55 points over the final 20 minutes to storm back and win the South Region as the No. 11 seed.

The Wolfpack also bounced Duke from the ACC Tournament to even reach the March Madness field.

UNC swept Duke in their 2023-24 rivalry matchups, first a 93-84 win in Chapel Hill before clinching the regular-season conference title in Durham with an 84-79 win in the finale.

The Blue Devils only return two starters from last year’s team, so it’ll be up to top-ranked freshman [autotag]Cooper Flagg[/autotag] to exact revenge on the two programs, but fans will certainly have that week circled.

Eight ACC football teams receive votes in new Associated Press Top 25

Florida State completely dropped out of the AP Top 25 on Tuesday, but five other ACC teams made the rankings with three others receiving votes.

After Florida State started the 2024 college football season with back-to-back unranked losses, the power structure of the entire ACC came into question.

According to the new Associated Press Top 25 released on Tuesday, the Miami Hurricanes have moved ahead as the team to beat in the conference. Quarterback Cameron Ward seems like a serious Heisman candidate, and after a 41-17 road victory over Florida, the Hurricanes jumped up seven spots to No. 12 in the rankings.

Georgia, who has won two of the last three national championships, remained in the top spot after a blowout 34-3 win over Clemson. The Bulldogs received 57 out of a possible 62 first-place votes, with No. 2 Ohio State receiving the other five. Texas, Alabama, and Notre Dame joined them inside the top five.

Miami was the only ACC team in the top 20, but the conference landed four consecutive teams to round out the rankings: Louisville (No. 22), Georgia Tech (No. 23), NC State (No. 24), and Clemson (No. 25).

Boston College, fresh off an upset road win over the Seminoles, finished as the second-highest team in the Receiving Votes category. SMU and North Carolina also earned votes from the panel.

Four ACC football teams included in new US LBM Coaches Poll

With Florida State falling flat out of the gate, the newest US LBM Coaches Poll released on Tuesday featured four ACC teams.

Through one full week of college football, one thing is exceptionally clear: the ACC is there for the taking.

Florida State, last year’s undefeated conference champion, has already lost to Georgia Tech and Boston College, and the Seminoles went from the preseason top 10 to effective elimination in nine days. Clemson and two-time national champion Dabo Swinney got embarrassed by Georgia at a neutral site, a 34-3 drubbing that seemingly made it clear that the Tigers aren’t what they were eight years ago.

USA TODAY Sports released the updated US LBM Coaches Poll on Tuesday, and no team benefitted from all of the ACC upheaval more than Miami. The Hurricanes demolished Florida on the road in Week 1, a 41-17 victory led by a 385-yard, three-touchdown performance from new quarterback Cameron Ward.

The Hurricanes came in at No. 15 in the new Coaches Poll, the highest-ranked team in the conference. Clemson, despite the blowout loss, narrowly held on to the top 25 at No. 22 with NC State (No. 23) and Louisville (No. 24) rounding out the conference’s representation.

Here’s a breakdown of the complete Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.

Ranking Team Record Points
1 Georgia Bulldogs 1-0 1,371 (51)
2 Ohio State Buckeyes 1-0 1,316 (3)
3 Texas Longhorns 1-0 1,245 (1)
4 Alabama Crimson Tide 1-0 1,172
5 Ole Miss Rebels 1-0 1,081
6 Oregon Ducks 1-0 1,080
7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish 1-0 1,079
8 Penn State Nittany Lions 1-0 987
9 Michigan Wolverines 1-0 919
10 Missouri Tigers 1-0 848
11 Utah Utes 1-0 779
12 Tennessee Volunteers 1-0 753
13 Oklahoma Sooners 1-0 705
14 USC Trojans 1-0 655
15 Miami Hurricanes 1-0 650
16 Kansas State Wildcats 1-0 537
17 Oklahoma State Cowboys 1-0 499
18 Arizona Wildcats 1-0 348
19 LSU Tigers 0-1 341
20 Kansas Jayhawks 1-0 295
21 Iowa Hawkeyes 1-0 260
22 Clemson Tigers 0-1 223
23 North Carolina State Wolfpack 1-0 154
24 Louisville Cardinals 1-0 101
25 Washington Huskies 1-0 95

How to buy No. 22 North Carolina State vs. No. 15 Tennessee college football tickets

In just one of two matchups featuring top-25 teams in Week 2, NC State hosts Tennessee and tickets still remain for as little as $70.

After an exciting week of college football, fans can turn their attention to Week 2.

One of two games between ranked teams this weekend, No. 15 Tennessee travels to No. 22 North Carolina State on Saturday, Sept. 7.

The Wolfpack overcame an early deficit and opened the season with a 38-21 win over Western Carolina.

The Vols had less trouble with Chattanooga, dispatching the Mocs 69-3.

Now these two undefeated teams will put their records on the line in Charlotte and limited tickets are still available.

[afflinkbutton text=”Shop NC St vs. Tennessee football tickets” link=”https://stubhub.prf.hn/l/RlB0DXe”]

How to buy NC State vs. Tennessee football tickets

At the time of publication, the cheapest available Tennessee vs. North Carolina State tickets would cost you $70.

When: Saturday, Sept 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Charlotte, NC

Tickets: $70 on StubHub

[afflinkbutton text=”Shop NC St vs. Tennessee tickets at StubHub” link=”https://stubhub.prf.hn/l/RlB0DXe”]

How to buy No. 15 Tennessee vs. No. 22 North Carolina State college football tickets

In just one of two matchups featuring top-25 teams in Week 2, the Tennessee travels to NC State and tickets still remain for as little as $70.

One of two games between ranked teams this weekend, No. 15 Tennessee travels to No. 22 North Carolina State on Saturday, Sept. 7.

The Vols had little trouble with Chattanooga, dispatching the Mocs 69-3 on Saturday.

The Wolfpack played a closer game and overcame an early deficit and before pulling away from Western Carolina 38-21.

Now these two undefeated teams will put their records on the line in Charlotte and limited tickets are still available.

[afflinkbutton text=”Shop Tennessee vs. NC State football tickets” link=”https://stubhub.prf.hn/l/RlB0DXe”]

How to buy Tennessee vs. NC State football tickets

At the time of publication, the cheapest available Tennessee vs. North Carolina State tickets would cost you $70.

When: Saturday, Sept 7 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Charlotte, NC

Tickets: $70 on StubHub

[afflinkbutton text=”Shop Tennessee vs. NC State tickets at StubHub” link=”https://stubhub.prf.hn/l/RlB0DXe”]

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