NBA odds lines picks predictions – Page 2

Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Utah Jazz at Memphis Grizzlies Game 3 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 8-seed Memphis Grizzlies host the 1-seed Utah Jazz on Saturday at FedExForum in Game 3 of their Western Conference First Round playoff series, with things all squared up at one. Tip-off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Jazz-Grizzlies odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Utah evened the series with a double-digit Game 2 blowout, 141-129, covering as 10-point home favorites despite Memphis outscoring the Jazz 43-29 in the third quarter and bringing the game within a few buckets.

It was Jazz All-Star PG/SG Donovan Mitchell‘s first game in the series after a controversial pre-game scratch for Game 1.

Mitchell immediately made a difference, scoring a team-high 25 points on 55.3% effective field goal shooting.

Grizzlies second-year phenom, PG Ja Morant, continued to assert his will on the Jazz, dropping a franchise-record 47 points on 57.7% shooting with 7 assists.

Jazz at Grizzlies: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:32 p.m. ET.

Money line: Jazz -210 (bet $210 to win $100) | Grizzlies +170 (bet $100 to win $170)
Against the spread/ATS: Jazz -5 (-110) | Grizzlies +5 (-110)
Over/Under: 224.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Jazz at Grizzlies: Key injuries

Jazz

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Grizzlies

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

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Jazz at Grizzlies: Odds, lines, predictions, and picks

Prediction

Jazz 122, Grizzlies 114

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I feel Utah should win because Morant has been able to get anywhere on the floor he’s wanted through two games, thus making Jazz (-210) a little too expensive.

Utah’s offensive precision was surgical in Game 2, setting a franchise playoff record for points scored despite scoring just three fast-break points and five points off of turnovers.

The Jazz shot 65% effective field goal percentage and seven of the nine Utah players that ran in Game 2 scored at least 14 points. It was an offensive clinic by the Jazz.

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Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the JAZZ -5 (-110) for a quarter unit, because the five points could be covered easily in final-minute free throws, and Utah’s depth is crushing Memphis.

Morant and SG Dillon Brooks aren’t getting enough help from the Grizzlies’ supporting cast, especially the other backcourt players, none of which are scoring more than 6.5 points per game.

Memphis big Jonas Valančiūnas has been playing okay but Utah’s C Rudy Gobert‘s defense has been more impactful, while PF/C Jaren Jackson shot poorly in Utah (35.7% field goal shooting and 28.6% from three in this series).

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 224.5 (-110) for 1 unit because I expect the Grizzlies’ role players to have better shooting performances in Memphis, coupled with Utah’s offense looking unstoppable with Mitchell back in the lineup.

Six of the past seven Jazz-Grizzlies meetings have gone Over the total and Memphis’s offense can somewhat keep up with the Jazz. What the Grizzlies lack in outside shooting they make up in hustle and aggressiveness.

For instance, Memphis leads the postseason in fast-break points per game and is third in both points off of turnovers and paint points per game. Also, both teams are in the top-4 of FTA/FG rate and tied for 5th in pace in the playoffs.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Game 4 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Game 4 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 3-seed Milwaukee Bucks (3-0) go for a sweep against the Miami Heat (0-3) Saturday in Game 4 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series at American Airlines Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 1:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Bucks-Heat odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Not only are the Bucks up 3-0, but they are thoroughly dominating this series from a statistical standpoint as well.

Milwaukee is owning the glass—31.3% in offensive-rebounding rate compared to Miami’s 17.3%—and outshooting the Heat 54.1% to 44.9% in effective field-goal percentage.

No one on Miami has gotten it going offensively and Milwaukee SF Giannis Antetokounmpo has made it a point to shut down SF Jimmy Butler, who’s averaging just 15.3 points per game on 40.4% true shooting (.306/.308/.667).

Bucks at Heat: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:26 a.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Heat +160 (bet $100 to win $160)
Against the spread/ATS: Bucks -4.5 (-115) | Heat +4.5 (-105)
Over/Under: 221.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Bucks at Heat: Key injuries

Bucks

SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (groin) probable

Heat

None

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Bucks at Heat: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Bucks 116, Heat 103

Money line (ML)

PASS even though Milwaukee is clearly the right side because I’d rather just lay it with the Bucks -4.5 (-115) than play the money line of -190.

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Against the spread (ATS)

GIMME the BUCKS -4.5 (-115) for 1 unit because they are imposing their will on the Heat with size and defensive tenacity.

Everyone in Milwaukee’s starting five has a defensive rating of 99 or below and Miami doesn’t have a key contributor taller than 6-foot-10 whereas the Bucks have a legit 7-footer in C Brook Lopez and Giannis stands at 6-10.

Furthermore, Bucks’ first-year PG Jrue Holiday seems to be worth the draft capital Milwaukee sent to the New Orleans Pelicans for him, and the massive contract he was signed to following his arrival to the Bucks.

Holiday is averaging 16.7 points per game on 52.5% shooting, 7.0 rebounds, and 10.0 assists per game with a plus-30 net rating in this series.

Equally as important is how Holiday is defending Heat starting PG Goran Dragic, who has a minus-13 net rating and just 2.3 assists per game.

Finally, I don’t see a gentleman’s sweep in this series (when the team up 3-0 gives up Game 4 but goes on to win the series 4-1 in Game 5) because of the embarrassing nature of Milwaukee’s upset loss to Miami last postseason in the bubble.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 221.5 (-110) for a half unit because that’s where the “sharp” side of the market is betting and Miami could turn Game 4 into a “rock fight” since it cannot shoot the ball like last season in the bubble.

According to Pregame.com, nearly 70% of the money wagered is on the Under, but a majority of the bets placed have been on the Over. Typically in sports gambling, it’s wiser to follow the money rather than the crowd.

Also, Miami is 11th in 3-point shooting this postseason and 19th during the regular season whereas the Heat were second in 3-point shooting last season.

Miami played at the second-slowest pace during the regular season and it should slow this game down since the Heat will probably get scorched if Game 5 turns into a shootout.

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Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Friday’s Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks Game 3 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 5-seed Dallas Mavericks (2-0) host the 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (0-2) Friday in Game 3 as their Western Conference First Round playoff series heads to the Big D for the next two games. Tip-off at American Airlines Center is scheduled for 9:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Clippers-Mavericks odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

The story of this series through two games has been Luka Doncic and Dallas’ hot shooting as the Mavs have six players shooting 40% or better from behind the arc and a 65.5% effective field goal shooting (eFG%) as a team.

Also, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George are averaging a combined 59 points per game (PPG) this series but aren’t getting much help from the Clippers’ role players.

Forward Marcus Morris Sr. is scoring just 6.5 PPG on 29.4% shooting and PG Pat Beverley is getting abused by Doncic, posting a 130 defensive rating while adding just 6.5 PPG himself.

Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:14 p.m. ET.

Money line: Clippers -140 (bet $140 to win $100) | Mavericks +115 (bet $100 to win $115)
Against the spread/ATS: Clippers -2.5 (-110) | Mavericks +2.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 219.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Clippers at Mavericks: Key injuries

Mavericks

PF Serge Ibaka (back) questionable

Clippers

PF Maxi Kleber (Achilles) questionable
SG J.J. Redick (Achilles) out

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Clippers at Mavericks: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Clippers 119, Mavericks 111

Money line (ML)

BET the CLIPPERS (-140) for 1 unit because both their terrible outside shooting and the Mavs’ red-hot outside shooting have to come back to the mean eventually in this series.

As basic as it sounds, Beverley, Morris, and Reggie Jackson cannot play any worse and there are rumors that Rajon Rondo could replace Pat Bev in the starting 5, which would be ideal in my opinion.

Also, L.A. is ahead in three of the “four factors” (turnover, rebounding and FT/FGA rates) so if Mavs’ role players like Tim Hardaway Jr. and Dorian Finney-Smith are just a smidge off Friday, the Clippers will win.

Finally, as I mentioned in this week’s Bet Slippin’ Podcast, I have a hard time believing the Mavs are getting the brooms out for the Clippers.

If they do then once this series is over let’s shop for “Kawhi Leonard’s 2021-22 team” future prices.

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Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. I’d listen to the case for just laying it with the Clippers -2.5 (-110) if you want to be cheap but I’d prefer to stick with L.A.’s money line here given the stakes of Game 3.

Dallas has a chance to effectively end this season for the Clippers if it goes up 3-0, but if L.A. can steal this game they’ll be back in the series. I’d rather not fuss with the points because I could see this game ending on the final possession.

Over/Under (O/U)

Game 3’s total is 3 points higher than last game’s total and I still don’t think it’s high enough. The Mavs lit up the Clippers on their home floor and generally role players shoot better at home.

While I don’t think that’s necessarily the case here, Kawhi, and to a lesser extent PG, have proven they can get buckets vs. the Mavs and will at least help L.A.’s role players get open looks.

However, it’s a slight “LEAN” to the OVER 219.5 (-110) for a quarter unit because the market is barreling into the Over and I hate following crowds in sports betting while both teams played at a bottom-10 pace this season.

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Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics Game 3 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Friday’s Brooklyn Nets at Boston Celtics Game 3 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 2-seed Brooklyn Nets and 7-seed Boston Celtics play Game 3 of their Eastern Conference first-round series Friday at TD Garden in Boston; the Nets hold a 2-0 series lead. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Nets vs. Celtics odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

The Nets picked up rather easy victories in the first two games of this series at Barclays Center where they covered spreads of 8.5 and 9 points. Both of Brooklyn’s victories have been by at least 11 points.

Boston has struggled putting points on the board this series, averaging just 100.5 PPG in the two games in Brooklyn. The Celts also turned the ball over 12 times in Game 1 and 15 times in Game 2 while shooting 37% or worse from long distance in both games – a bad combination.

Nets at Celtics: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:49 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nets -335 (bet $335 to win $100) | Celtics +260 (bet $100 to win $260)
Against the spread/ATS: Nets -7.5 (-110) | Celtics +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 226.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Nets at Celtics: Key injuries

Nets

SF Jeff Green (foot) out

Celtics

PG Kemba Walker (knee) questionable

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Nets at Celtics: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nets 119, Celtics 107

Money line (ML)

Nets (-335) will cost you over three times your potential return, and that’s just not a good long-term betting strategy, even if the Celtics (+260) do not match well and are likely headed for a third straight loss in the series.

AVOID.

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Against the spread (ATS)

The NETS -7.5 (-110) are a much better play laying the four buckets in Game 3. The Celtics +7.5 (-110) haven’t been able to keep it within single digits yet in the series and there is no reason to believe a move to New England will suddenly awaken their offense.

Brooklyn is not only 5-0 SU in the three regular-season meetings and two playoff games against Boston this season, they’re also 5-0 ATS, too.

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 226.5 (-110) is the lean here, ever so slightly. The Under had connected in the first four meetings this season before a Game 2 Over result. Brooklyn isn’t likely to drop a 130 on Boston on the road like they did against them in Game 2 at home.

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Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers Game 2 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Clippers Game 2 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (0-1) try to even their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks (1-0) at Staples Center before heading to the Big D for Games 3 and 4. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Dallas jumped out to a 1-0 series lead primarily because PG Luka Dončić had his way with L.A.’s defense. He messed around and put up a 31-10-11 triple-double.

L.A.’s two All-Stars SF Kawhi Leonard and SG Paul George had respectable performances, but the Clippers shot just 27.5% from behind the 3-point arc as a team and were outscored in all four quarters.

Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mavericks +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Clippers -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +7 (-110) | Clippers -7 (-110)
Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Mavericks at Clippers: Key injuries

Mavericks

None.

Clippers

None.

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Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Clippers 117, Mavericks 114

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I “like” Dallas plus the points because I just cannot see the Mavericks (+240) stealing the two games in L.A.

I do envision this series going at least six games like it did last year but the Clippers (-300) should find a way to even the series.

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Against the spread (ATS)

BET the MAVERICKS +7 (-110) for 1 unit because there’s a narrative floating around NBA circles that the Clippers are going to assign Leonard to guard Luka and that’s just not the way L.A. has operated since acquiring him.

Maybe late in the game or later in this series Leonard will step up to the challenge of mitigating Doncic’s effectiveness but since L.A.’s 3-point shooting was the best in the NBA this season, I think the Clippers try to outscore the Mavs.

In Game 1, Clippers SF Nicolas Batum guarded Luka the most and Leonard spent the fourth-most time defending him. If the Clippers’ major adjustment from Game 1 is to improve their 3-point shooting then I don’t trust L.A. to win by a margin and cover the spread.

Furthermore, we have a “Pros vs. Joes” situation in the betting market as a majority of the money is on the Mavs to cover while more bets have been placed on the Clippers, according to Pregame.com.

Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money and fade the crowd of people.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-110) for a half unit only because I think the Clippers’ role players knock down a few more threes than in Game 1 and the pace picks up this game.

I would go lightly if betting this total because the Under cashed in five straight Mavericks-Clippers meetings and four of those games went Under by at least 21 points.

Ultimately, I prefer the Over because of my read L.A. makes more offensive adjustments than defensive ones and the Clippers never have an answer for Doncic.

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Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets Game 2 odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Tuesday’s Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets Game 2 NBA odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The 2-seed Brooklyn Nets (1-0) hosts the 7-seed Boston Celtics (0-1) Tuesday for Game 2 of their Eastern Conference first-round playoff series at Barclays Center. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Celtics-Nets odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.

Brooklyn rallied back from a first-half deficit to win and cover Game 1 vs. Boston, 104-93, as 8.5-point home favorites.

Both teams shot terribly from the field — the Celtics had .435 effective field goal shooting (eFG%) and the Nets .464 eFG% — but Brooklyn significantly outrebounded Boston 50-40.

The only All-Star for either team that produced more than their season average was Nets’ Kyrie Irving who scored 29 points on 11-of-20 shooting. Brooklyn has won and covered each of its four meetings with Boston this season.

Celtics at Nets: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Celtics +350 (bet $100 to win $350) | Nets -455 (bet $455 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Celtics +9.5 (-110) | Nets -9.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 227.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Celtics at Nets: Key injuries

Celtics

None.

Nets

None.

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Celtics at Nets: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Nets 118, Celtics 113

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I “lean” to Boston plus the points because I don’t trust Brooklyn to win this game by a margin given its lack of continuity and the Celtics’ postseason experience.

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Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the CELTICS +9.5 (-110) for a half unit because there are paths to Boston covering this game.

First, the “backdoor” is wide open given Brooklyn’s occasional defensive lapses and the volume of 3-point shooting in today’s NBA.

Also, the Celtics are an elite offensive rebounding team (fifth in offensive rebounding rate) who score the ninth-most second-chance points per game while the Nets are 21st in defensive rebounding rate and 29th in second-chance points allowed per game.

Brooklyn’s edge in rebounding in Game 1 should be an outlier and if Boston makes it a point to crash the glass in this meeting the Celtics could score a bunch of easy buckets.

If the Nets find themselves getting crushed on the boards it could force them to pack in their perimeter defense, making it tougher to contest Celtics 3-point attempts.

Finally, wait closer until tip-off before betting this game because the market is backing Brooklyn and very few basketball pundits give Boston a chance to cover or win a game.

However, all of Brooklyn’s edges are baked into the line and the majority of the market rarely beat the oddsmakers in gambling so my instinct is to take the contrarian approach to handicapping Celtics-Nets.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 226.5 (-115) for 1 unit because both teams should improve offensively in Game 2 and Brooklyn’s impressive defensive effort in Game 1 was more a product of the Nets not hitting shots than anything else.

For instance, if the Nets are knocking down shots I’d expect their defense to sag and give the Celtics quality looks.

Additionally, Boston could score easy points by crashing the glass against Brooklyn’s weak rebounding, but the Nets also figure to spend a lot of time at the charity stripe.

The Celtics have the fourth-worst defensive FTA/FG rate and the Nets have the fifth-best FTA/FG rate. It would make sense for both teams to attack the defense more aggressively since they both had off-shooting nights.

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