The 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (0-1) try to even their Western Conference first-round playoff series with the 5-seed Dallas Mavericks (1-0) at Staples Center before heading to the Big D for Games 3 and 4. Tip-off is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Mavericks-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
Dallas jumped out to a 1-0 series lead primarily because PG Luka Dončić had his way with L.A.’s defense. He messed around and put up a 31-10-11 triple-double.
L.A.’s two All-Stars SF Kawhi Leonard and SG Paul George had respectable performances, but the Clippers shot just 27.5% from behind the 3-point arc as a team and were outscored in all four quarters.
Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:10 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mavericks +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | Clippers -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Mavericks +7 (-110) | Clippers -7 (-110)
- Over/Under: 215.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Mavericks at Clippers: Key injuries
Mavericks
- None.
Clippers
- None.
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Mavericks at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 117, Mavericks 114
Money line (ML)
PASS even though I “like” Dallas plus the points because I just cannot see the Mavericks (+240) stealing the two games in L.A.
I do envision this series going at least six games like it did last year but the Clippers (-300) should find a way to even the series.
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Against the spread (ATS)
BET the MAVERICKS +7 (-110) for 1 unit because there’s a narrative floating around NBA circles that the Clippers are going to assign Leonard to guard Luka and that’s just not the way L.A. has operated since acquiring him.
Maybe late in the game or later in this series Leonard will step up to the challenge of mitigating Doncic’s effectiveness but since L.A.’s 3-point shooting was the best in the NBA this season, I think the Clippers try to outscore the Mavs.
In Game 1, Clippers SF Nicolas Batum guarded Luka the most and Leonard spent the fourth-most time defending him. If the Clippers’ major adjustment from Game 1 is to improve their 3-point shooting then I don’t trust L.A. to win by a margin and cover the spread.
Furthermore, we have a “Pros vs. Joes” situation in the betting market as a majority of the money is on the Mavs to cover while more bets have been placed on the Clippers, according to Pregame.com.
Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money and fade the crowd of people.
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the OVER 215.5 (-110) for a half unit only because I think the Clippers’ role players knock down a few more threes than in Game 1 and the pace picks up this game.
I would go lightly if betting this total because the Under cashed in five straight Mavericks-Clippers meetings and four of those games went Under by at least 21 points.
Ultimately, I prefer the Over because of my read L.A. makes more offensive adjustments than defensive ones and the Clippers never have an answer for Doncic.
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