The 1-seed Utah Jazz (2-1) meet the 4-seed Los Angeles Clippers (1-2) at Staples Center Monday for Game 4 of their Western Conference Semifinal playoff series. Tip-off is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze the Jazz-Clippers odds and lines, with NBA picks and predictions.
L.A. got its first win of the series in Game 3, 132-106, and was propelled by superstar performances by their All-NBA-caliber leaders Kawhi Leonard and Paul George.
Kawhi and PG combined for 65 points on 54.2% shooting (26-for-48) with 15 rebounds and 10 assists while George sunk a game-high six 3-pointers.
Utah got a fourth-quarter scare when All-Star Donovan Mitchell rolled the same ankle that forced him to miss the last 16 games of the regular season as well as Game 1 of the Jazz’s first-round playoff series vs. Memphis.
He only played 4:55 in the fourth quarter and didn’t return to the game after the tweak, but reportedly was available to and was held off the court by the coaching staff out of caution. Mitchell is in Utah’s projected lineup and will play through the injury.
Jazz at Clippers: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:39 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Jazz +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Clippers -225 (bet $225 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Jazz +5.5 (-110) | Clippers -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 223.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
Jazz at Clippers: Key injuries
Jazz
- PG Mike Conley (hamstring) questionable
Clippers
- PF Serge Ibaka (back) out
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Jazz at Clippers: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Clippers 116, Jazz 103
Money line (ML)
PASS even though L.A. is the right side because the Clippers (-225) is a little out of my price range.
I’m not crazy about laying it with L.A.’s spread but Utah’s shooting and Conley’s possible return are the reasons why I’m passing on the Clippers’ money line.
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Against the spread (ATS)
GIMME the CLIPPERS -5.5 (-110) for 1 unit since L.A. trampled Utah in Game 3 even though the Jazz connected on 43.2% of their 3-pointers (19-for-44) because the Clippers outshot, out-rebounded, and had much better ball movement than the Jazz.
The Jazz’s offense is built on a house of cards in this series because they are hitting a high degree of difficult jump shots.
Utah has 48 assists to 34 turnovers while L.A. has 62 assists to 28 turnovers and, despite being down 1-2, the Clippers are leading all “four factors” in this series. The Jazz need Conley back in the lineup although his status is questionable and his effectiveness would be questionable as well.
Furthermore, Utah was first-place in the regular season in part because it suffered no major injuries up until Mitchell’s 16-game absence and had elite offensive execution.
However, the crux of my argument for the Clippers to win this series when they were down 0-1 on my Bet Slippin’ Podcast last week was L.A. had the highest 3-point percentage this season, and their 83.9% free throw percentage was the highest regular-season mark ever.
With how well L.A. shoots the ball and how reliable they are at the charity stripe there’s a good chance they can beat the Jazz by margin.
BET the CLIPPERS -5.5 (-110).
Over/Under (O/U)
“LEAN” to the UNDER 223.5 (-110) for a half unit as a contrarian play against the market and because this series has been played at a snail’s pace.
According to Pregame.com, nearly three-fourths of the money wagered is on the Over but the total hasn’t budged from the opening number, which indicates the oddsmakers are comfortable with their number.
Also, the Pace of this series has been 93.9 possessions per 48 minutes. In contrast, the New York Knicks played the slowest pace in the Association during the regular season at 95.9 possessions per 48 minutes.
For the Over to cash in Jazz-Clippers, both teams’ shooting has to be on-point because just one off-shooting quarter is enough to keep this game Under the total.
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