Nikola Jokic probably lost his 3rd MVP trophy during the Nuggets 4-game losing streak and it’s all because of defense

Nikola Jokic’s defense just opened up the NBA MVP debate

There aren’t too many arguments you could make against Nikola Jokic for winning his 3rd MVP right now. At least, not when it comes to basketball.

The Nuggets center is averaging a triple-double with 11.9 rebounds, 10 assists and 24.7 points per game. He’s shooting 63% from the floor, 40% from 3-point range and 81% from the free-throw line. And those are just his counting stats — we haven’t even talked about the advanced numbers that people hate so much yet.

But after this last week in the NBA, there is a case to be made against Jokic. And it revolves around his defense.

The Nuggets have been awful over the last week. Denver has lost four in a row to teams it has no business losing to — the Spurs, the Raptors, the Bulls and the Nets. All fine teams, but they shouldn’t be dominating the Nuggets the way they all have.

The problem has been simple — it’s the defense. The Nuggets have given up 125.2 points per 100 possessions over the last four games. The defense was already poor, but it’s been worse over this latest stretch.

At the center of it all has been Nikola Jokic. Teams have legitimately been going at him over and over and over again, forcing the big man to constantly defend. He’s been awful.

Folks have been roasting him online for it. Here’s a supercut of how terrible Jokic was against the Raptors on Tuesday.

The same happened against the Spurs.

Look, supercuts of terrible defense from Jokic doesn’t necessarily represent Jokic’s defensive output constantly. There are metrics out there that say he’s actually a pretty good defender. And this doesn’t mean that he can’t be the MVP — plenty of defensively-challenged greats have won it before.

But, look. This race is tight. Joel Embiid’s MVP odds just continue to rise as the 76ers climb the standings. Giannis Antetkounmpo just lead the Bucks to become the first team to clinch a playoff spot this season and Milwaukee looks like the best team in the league behind his play.

This year’s MVP race — for the second season in a row — will require voters to split hairs. Things like head-to-head matchups, defensive play, and even the player’s individual history will come into play.

Unfortunately for Jokic and Nuggets fans, the center just gave voters a lot to think about.

ESPN straw poll brings the NBA MVP race into focus for bettors

There’s a steep drop-off after the top two of the MVP race.

If you’re looking for an edge in NBA MVP betting, ESPN just dropped one in the form of a straw poll conducted from Sunday to Tuesday.

One hundred league insiders cast their ballots on who they would vote for, and Jayson Tatum came out as the early favorite with 47 first-place votes and 759 total points. He was followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo, who received 36 first-place votes, and Luka Doncic with 10 first-place votes.

The top three matched For The Win’s latest MVP ladder, though there are slight deviations after that. Stephen Curry, who was recently ruled out for several weeks with a shoulder injury, was fourth in the poll and Nikola Jokic was fifth.

The top three also matches MVP odds at BetMGM where Tatum leads the way at +250, followed by Antetokounmpo at +300 and Doncic at +350.

There’s a steep drop from there, though. Joel Embiid, who was is 10th in both the poll and FTW’s rankings, has the next best odds at +900. Jokic is fifth at +1400.

Six through nine of ESPN’s poll are Ja Morant, Kevin Durant, Zion Williamson and Devin Booker. Donovan Mitchell, Anthony Davis and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander also received votes.

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ESPN: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander mentioned in MVP straw poll results

SGA received a fifth-place vote for MVP through the 1/3 mark of the season.

The highlight of the season for the Oklahoma City Thunder is the superstar leap Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has made.

After averaging 18.2 points on 47.3% shooting in his first four seasons combined, Gilgeous-Alexander is having a career year. He is averaging 31 points on 50.6% shooting, 5.8 assists and 4.6 rebounds in 26 games this season. The Thunder are 11-17 and in 13th place in the Western Conference.

It seems Gilgeous-Alexander’s season is getting recognition at a national level.

ESPN’s Tim Bontemps published the first straw poll edition of the 2022-23 NBA season. The straw poll is conducted during every third of an NBA season with 100 NBA media members from all 28 markets filling out a ballot with five players.

The point system goes as follows: 10 points for each first-place vote, seven points for second, five points for third, three points for fourth and one point for fifth.

Gilgeous-Alexander received his first vote in Bontemps’ straw poll system with one fifth-place vote. In total, 13 players received at least one point.

Boston Celtic star Jayson Tatum leads the way with 759 points. Milwaukee Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo is second at 687 points.

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2022-23 NBA MVP Ladder, Vol. 4: Anthony Davis is having a moment

AD is averaging more than 40 points in his last four games.

Just when I was ready to submit to what an awesome season Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is having and add him back to the ladder despite OKC’s 11-16 record, another player on a team well below .500 came shooting up the rankings. And well, there’s simply too many good players on winning teams for me to add both Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Davis to my ladder.

So, it’ll be Davis cracking the top 10 on this edition, joining Joel Embiid in replacing Tyrese Haliburton and Devin Booker. Booker was a tough player to knock, but a recent hamstring injury threatens to keep him sidelined a little while and he was only averaging 14 points on less than 35% shooting in the three games before that, all losses.

So maybe, SGA makes it next time around. I also expect Zion Williamson to crack the rankings soon with the way he’s been playing lately.

(Odds via BetMGM)

The NBA’s best MVP candidates might not make the playoffs this season and things could get weird

How bad can an NBA MVP’s team be before he shouldn’t be an MVP anymore? It’s a question worth asking.

Welcome to Layup Lines, our basketball newsletter where we’ll prep you for a tip-off of tonight’s action, from what to watch to bets to make. Subscribe here to get it delivered to your inbox every afternoon

What’s happening, people? It’s Sykes, once again, with another edition of Layup Lines to usher you into the weekend. Hope that Thanksgiving turkey was amazing.

I want to talk a bit about the MVP race so far. Obviously, it’s still early. We’re nowhere near deciding who could potentially be the NBA’s MVP so far. But I think, with how crowded the races has been, this is a good question to ask.

And that question is how low can the win threshold get for an NBA MVP?

Typically, the MVP goes to the best player on one of the best teams in the league. That’s always been the tradition. But, obviously, that’s changed quite a bit over the last few years.

Nikola Jokic won MVP last year on a 46-win Denver Nuggets team that won the 6 seed. A few years before that, Russell Westbrook won it on another 46-win team by averaging a triple-double and being one of the best players in the clutch we’ve ever seen. That was the lowest win total for an MVP’s team since Moses Malone won it with the 46-win Rockets in 1981-82.

But can things go even lower? With the way things are shaping up, that might be something that has to be considered down the line.

Just take a look at the NBA’s MVP ladder today. Luka Doncic is at the top on a 10-seeded Dallas Mavericks team that sits just one game over .500. Stephen Curry isn’t very far behind in 5th on a team that is one game below .500. Anthony Davis is in the top 10 despite playing on a team that doesn’t look like it’s close to being playoff ready.

There are plenty of other candidates to choose from. If you want to go with the best player from the best team, Jayson Tatum looks like he’ll be more than worthy of taking home the award. You’ve also got Giannis Antetkounmpo and Donovan Mitchell within range.

But it’s hard to argue against Doncic’s case at this point. He’s already scored 40 points 4 times this season. There’s no team that depends on their star more — he’s got a usage rate of 38.5%. Yet he’s still crushing every advanced metric out there and giving historic performances every single night. You could say much of the same about Steph Curry, too, on the Warriors end.

Again, it’s still early. A lot of this will correct itself. But the thought exercise of “would a player on a 42-win team be worthy of an MVP?” seems to certainly be worth entertaining right now with the way things stand.

That’s just my two cents.

The Tip-Off

Some NBA goodness from around the USA TODAY Sports network.

Zion Williamson knows the vibe for Thanksgiving. Obviously, he’s had issues with his weight before and that’s led to a ton of memes and jokes about him as well as speculation about how seriously he takes his job.

So when he was asked about what he was going to eat for Thanksgiving, Zion did not bite. Pun intended. My colleague Charles Curtis has more.

“If he were to tell the world about his favorite Thanksgiving food — something that divides the country, from turkey (is it overrated?) to side dishes (just ask us after our Thanksgiving food draft earlier this week) — he would be trending for all the wrong reasons.

“Zion loves turkey? So basic!” they’d say.

“Zion loves dinner rolls?” they might say on Twitter, with awful jokes about his weight.

So Williamson, when asked on Wednesday night, made the right call.”

Good on Zion. Hope he had a great Thanksgiving.

One to Watch

(All odds via Tipico.)

Kings (+255) vs. Celtics (-7.5, -310), O/U 237.5, 8 PM ET

(AP Photo/Carlos Osorio) ORG XMIT: MICO109

I know, I know. Kings-Celtics doesn’t really seem like it’ll be a good one. But don’t get it twisted — the Sacramento Kings are very, very good. These are the two hottest teams in the NBA right now with the Kings being 8-2 in their last 10 and the C’s being 9-1. They’ve got the two best offenses in the league by a mile. A whole lot of points will be scored in this one. Take the over.

Shootaround

— Patrick Beverley has been suspended 3 games for his altercation with the Suns that caused a stir earlier this week

— It’s probably a good time for Jaylen Brown to chill.

— Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is going to make a lot of Michael Jordan fans mad with this one.

— A lot of teams have had some chaotic starts to the year. Here’s how they’re doing so far 

That’s all, folks. Enjoy the basketball tonight.

NBA awards odds entering the 2022-23 season: Luka Doncic is favored to take home the MVP

Top 10 odds for every award entering the NBA season.

Bookmark this link. It’ll make for a fun exercise at the end of the NBA season to go back and see how wrong (or right?!) bookmakers were about awards in 2022-23.

This is a peek at top 10 odds for MVP, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, Most Improved Player and Coach of the Year.

We all think we have a handle on where things are headed, but how many people are willing to put their money on it? These odds from BetMGM show just how much money your opinions are worth.

(Odds are from before the season-opening games Tuesday.)

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5 stats that explain Nikola Jokic’s MVP 2021-22 season

Nikola Jokic is the 2021-22 NBA most valuable player. Explore the stats behind his MVP season.

Nikola Jokic is the NBA’s 2021-22 regular season MVP, beating out both Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid to capture his second most valuable player award. The 27-year old becomes just the fourteenth player to win multiple MVPs in a career.

Both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. were sidelined with injuries all year long, and it was Jokic who was left to pick up the pieces. His herculean effort during the 21-22 season kept Denver out of the lottery and firmly in the in the West. Again and again Jokic kept the Nuggets afloat and at times thriving.

The highlight reel passes and heroic clutch performances only tell part of the story. Nikola Jokic’s 2021-22 regular season statistics help underscore how dominant his MVP run really was. Let’s explore some of the most telling stats from Jokic this year.

Joel Embiid was accidentally called the MVP in a recap of Game 3 on the NBA’s official website

Or was it an accident? Hmmmm.

Joel Embiid was one of the best players in the world this season and was one of the three finalists for the NBA MVP award along with Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo.

You could make legitimate arguments for all 3 of them and you’d be absolutely correct. But everyone has been waiting and waiting just to find out who will actually win it.

Despite knowing that we won’t know who the MVP is until the season is actually over, fans are holding on to every sign of which one of the three of them might actually win it — even if we’re reaching conspiracy levels with this stuff.

Like this NBA.com recap article that accidentally listed Joel Embiid as MVP after Game 3 against the Miami Heat.

Yes, this happened.

OH MY WORD. RING THE ALARM. SEND THE SMOKE SIGNAL. IT IS DONE….Or not.

Look, this was just an accident. Embiid might still very well win MVP. But the NBA isn’t going to leak that through a game recap article. That’s just not how this works.

The article was eventually updated to say “MVP finalist” instead of MVP. This was just an accident by someone. Basketball News was on it.

Still, fans lost their minds over this.

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Winner’s Circle: NBA MVP is a regular season award, so why are we talking about the playoffs?

Joel Embiid and Nikola Jokic made their cases already.

Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column by Bet For The Win senior writer Prince J. Grimes. Here, you’ll read about stats and trends that can help you make informed betting predictions for the week ahead and beyond. Got something you want to see in the next Winners Circle, shoot Prince a message and check back next week for the response.

I’m sold. The NBA Play-in Tournament should be here to stay.

I wasn’t much of a fan when it was first introduced a couple years ago because frankly it’s a little silly to give the Nos. 9 and 10 teams in each conference a shot at making the playoffs. But upon further review, there isn’t much difference between them and the No. 7 and 8 teams. In most years, 7 and 8 don’t give us any excitement as they make the playoffs simply to get swept in the first round. They barely even earn their spots in the playoffs, often finishing under .500 and only outlasting the teams under them. At least with the play-in tournament, they can play some meaningful basketball and give us something worth watching…and betting on. Playoff futures provided value all the way to the end thanks to the play-in.

And there’s another component to this that I hadn’t considered until this year. The play-in serves as a catch-all for teams that were incomplete throughout the season due to injuries or other circumstances, a place where we get to sort out who’s putting it all together at the right time. The Cleveland Cavaliers were great all year but banged up towards the end, which is why they slid into the play-in group. As fun as they were to watch, nobody wanted to see an incomplete Cavs team in the playoffs. And the Nets were in the play-in because they were incomplete a lot of the year but got healthy at the right time. They were able to prove their playoff worth to create one of the most exciting No. 2 vs. No. 7 matchups ever. Through the play-in tournament, these things were sorted out.

The same thing likely would have happened in the West with the Clippers, who had been incomplete all year. They got Paul George back just in time for the play-in and seemed on track to make a playoff push until he was ruled out of the second game due to COVID-19. They lost to the Pelicans, who were a more complete team for one game, but would the Clippers have beaten New Orleans with Paul George and given the Suns a better series? Maybe. These are the things the play-in tournament sorts out. The stakes are higher, which makes the basketball better. Everybody wins.

Here are a few more things I’m looking at in the week ahead.

[tipico]

OKC Thunder social media: Josh Giddey ratios a random

Oklahoma City Thunder rookie guard Josh Giddey ratio’d a random on Twitter after tweeting about what constitutes as an MVP.

Oklahoma City Thunder rookie guard Josh Giddey — who was officially ruled out for the remaining eight games in the regular season on Saturday — went to Twitter to express his definition of what the MVP should be.

Using an old Peyton Manning quote, Giddey said that the most valuable player is the player that makes the most players valuable. This basically means that the player that helps makes his teammates better should be the MVP. Which is quite the argument to make considering Giddey’s strength as a player involves passing and playmaking abilities.

Giddey would then respond to an account saying that they saw Giddey’s deleted tweet of him quote tweeting the Manning quote. Giddey would respond by saying that he can also see this ratio.

For those who don’t know, a ratio means that a reply to a tweet vastly outnumbers the likes and retweets, which means that the replied tweet is considered poor by public opinion.

Giddey rarely uses Twitter so it was nice to see some personality from the 19-year-old, who is arguably the best TikToker in the NBA.