For a brief moment in time, Chino Hills was a basketball mecca. The California town with a population of 80,000 housed some of the nation’s most exciting basketball. In 2016, fans packed in to watch the best high school basketball team in the country dominate opponents on a nightly basis.
The Ball brothers — Lonzo, LiAngelo and LaMelo — headlined that 2016 juggernaut, dazzling crowds with virtuoso passes, busted ankles and Mariana-deep threes. Buttressing the paint was a freshman big from East Los Angeles by the name of Onyeka Okongwu.
Four years later, Okongwu is back in the spotlight, tearing up the hardwood a mere 40 miles away from his high school at USC. The 19th ranked recruit per RSCI, the freshman center has eviscerated his competition, emerging as one of the best big men in the country and earning my vote as the top big man in the 2020 NBA Draft, ahead of higher-ranked recruits like James Wiseman and Isaiah Stewart. Posting a per 100 line of 36 points, 18.1 rebounds, 5.8 blocks and 2.2 steals per game, a 65.3 true shooting percentage and 13.7 gBPM, he’s passed every test college basketball has tossed his way.
The center position in 2019 is an enigma. With the position becoming ever-more fungible, finding centers who shine in unique ways is more important than ever. While traditional rim-runner types still have value in this league, they aren’t difficult to find and are losing viability in high-leverage situations. Okongwu’s array of traits and skills inspire confidence for him as a serious value-add in the postseason. A physical specimen in the truest sense, Okongwu’s tools juxtaposed with his offensive arsenal project him as a good NBA player.
Beyond any level of nuance, one of the strongest predictors of NBA success is progress at the college level, especially paired with age. At 18 years old, Okongwu is producing like one of the best players in the country and in recent college basketball history.
The list of players since 2008 with college seasons of at least 10 gBPM, 65 TS%, 2 STL%, 5 BLK% and 20 dunks includes the following: Zion Williamson, Anthony Davis, Brandon Clarke, Udoka Azubuike, Xavier Tillman, Jordan Bell, DJ Stephens, Joel Embiid and Onyeka Okongwu. Though it is important to note Okongwu’s competition so far, he occupies the same company as some of the best college players ever, two of which are NBA stars and two more are ultra-promising rookies.
Notably, the only players in this group who hit those benchmarks in their freshmen seasons were Williamson, Davis and Embiid. It will be important to see whether Okongwu can sustain his level of production or something close to it but a spot on this list is noteworthy nonetheless.
Herculean in stature, Okongwu is a physical monster, not even considering his age. Standing 6-foot-9, 245 pounds with a seven-foot plus wingspan, Okongwu can play center at the NBA level despite his height. He annihilates his competition athletically; his frame combined with his powerful leaping, sturdy lower body and rare mobility is special.
Those tools fuel his elite defensive upside. We’ll begin with a highlight from the Orlando Invitational against Marquette in which nothing much happens, just a solid hedge and recover. This play encapsulates Okongwu’s freakish mobility and fluidity for a human of his size and strength. Okongwu moving around the floor is mesmerizing; he dances around the floor with speed and lightness of foot rarely seen among big men:
Comically large, Okongwu inundates smaller and less athletic opponents with his size alone. His length shuts down passing lanes without trying; he sticks his paws out and forces a turnover:
Okongwu’s primary allure on the defensive end is his projection as a high-level rim protector, with length, a springy vertical leap and acute help instincts protecting the rim. Sporting a 12.1% block rate, Okongwu blocks out the sun, swallowing any shot that approaches the rim. When ballhandlers pierce the lane, Okongwu springs into action, turning his hips, rising up and spiking the layup off of the glass:
Routinely guarding large swathes of the painted area, Okongwu’s sheer size has overwhelmed his competition. His timing hunting blocks and positioning in the paint are both impeccable; he steps up to help on the drive, flips around to face the ball and pins this shot:
His length pops off of the screen constantly; Markus Howard dribbles into a floater to combat the rim protection, but Okongwu doesn’t care and flicks his shot away from the rim:
Standing on two tree trunks, Okongwu is immovable in the post for most big men seeking buckets in his vicinity. That lower body strength helps him hold position and his length and vertical explosion clean up:
One of the more impressive facets of Okongwu’s defensive package is his discipline, verticality on contests and his aversion for fouls. Okongwu is fouling 4.9 times per 100 possessions, a staggeringly low number, especially for freshmen.
He’s fouling less than recent one-and-done bigs Jaxson Hayes (8.6), Jaren Jackson (8.6), Mo Bamba (5.0), Wendell Carter (6.0), Karl-Anthony Towns (8.8) and Joel Embiid (8.9). His ability to elevate and contest vertically is the cherry on top of his rim protection:
The ground Okongwu can engulf in a flash makes him a threat to erase shots ostensibly out of his vicinity. He surprises shooters unprepared to deal with his speed and length, sprinting out to knock this three off of its trajectory:
Okongwu’s ballerina feet and hip mobility aid him as a perimeter defender and make him legitimately switchable, an ultra-rare trait for a center. Watch and marvel as the behemoth Okongwu flips his hips, slides with the attacker, slips under the screen and calmly blocks his shot:
Graceful on the perimeter and domineering in the paint, Okongwu’s ultra-fluid feet and slippery hips allow him to routinely stick with penetrating wings and even some guards. When his speed isn’t enough, his stride length and wingspan are excellent corrective tools:
Aside from the occasional motor inconsistency, Okongwu’s positioning defending the pick and roll is just about average. With his violent hedges, Okongwu can overextend himself, sliding himself out of position, too far up to contain the drive. He stops a tad too high here and is blown by:
On the offensive end, Okongwu’s physical tools are the foundation for his offensive prosperity thus far in his college career. He’s too strong, mobile and explosive for many of his opponents. With real estate above the rim, Okongwu is a monster lob threats as a roll man on cuts. Though he isn’t a high volume roller (9.2% of his possessions come on the roll), his athleticism projects him well in that role in the NBA:
Adding to Okongwu’s potential as a roll man is his hands. Okongwu snares passes anywhere in his vicinity, holding onto balls in traffic and snagging dishes and converting layups:
As a scorer, Okongwu’s primary method of attack is out of the post. He’s obliterating defenders down low, placing in the 96th percentile on post-ups, shooting 77.6% at the rim with 20 dunks. Okongwu is one of two players this season with 20 dunks so far, only trailing the human Everest, Udoka Azubuike. Assuming he plays 30 games, which is conservative, he is on pace for 66 dunks, a feat only 56 players since 2008 have accomplished.
Aside from pure physical dominance, Okongwu sports elite touch and a deadly jump hook, floating in shots around the rim. Heavy pressure doesn’t deter Okongwu as he finishes tough shots through contact. He’s ambidextrous as a finisher, scoring comfortably with both hands:
Okongwu’s post scoring holds some value in an NBA context, but it is diminished in a league favoring pace and space. The important points to glean from his interior scoring are his finishing ambidexterity and, more importantly, his wizard touch. Touch and free throw percentage — he’s shooting a solid 76.5% — are the two strongest predictors of future shooting development.
Given Okongwu’s absurd displays of touch, it is difficult to envision a scenario where he doesn’t extend his range to the 3-point line and shoot at a fairly high clip on good volume. He’s already comfortable out to 20 feet or so:
Okongwu’s rebounding is another plus on his profile; he’s posting a 22 defensive rebound percentage and a 13.3 offensive rebounding percentage. He traps shots ricocheting off of the glass in his awaiting arms, keeping possessions alive:
The darkest blemish on Okongwu’s offensive game is his passing feel and the overall quality of his decisions. With a below-average 0.5 assist-turnover ratio, he is in score-first mode all of the time, which works out more than it doesn’t due to his tools and touch. Often times Okongwu will miss passes like this (granted this lob would require an advanced decision, but it’s makeable), but he draws the foul anyways
However, there are times when he needs to pass out of the post or make a pass he misses. There are obvious lanes to kick out to shooters on many of his trips to the hole, but Okongwu has tunnel vision and misses them often:
He has some warts handling double teams. When Okongwu can’t overwhelm two defenders, his decision making isn’t great, he falls into the double here and loses the ball:
As smart people like the Stepien’s Ross Homan have pointed out, Okongwu possesses some passing feel suggesting more playmaking upside than he’s shown. The film backs up this claim. In certain instances, Okongwu will flash glimmers of passing acumen which often doesn’t materialize into anything, like this post skip:
Or this pass to a cutting Agbonkpolo from a faceup position:
One situation where Okongwu does well as a passer is on high-low reads. USC plays two bigs on the floor for many of their minutes and Okongwu has improved finding bigs sealing on the inside:
The optimal decision here is to pass out to Utomi, exploiting the dig, but Okongwu’s inner daredevil shines through here. With the weak side defender facing half-court, Okongwu feathers a pass away from and over him, throwing the shooter open on a pristine feed:
Through the first nine games of his college career, Onyeka Okongwu has made his case as the 2020 draft’s top center. More than any other big, he combines the physical tools to hold up at the five along with a projectable offensive skillset necessary to survive in the modern NBA.
It will be interesting to see how Okongwu fares against conference opponents. For the moment, though, Okongwu looks like the best big in the class and a lottery pick.
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