NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bet: Heat beat Lakers to 20 points

Looking at the best NBA Finals bets to make, today we focus on the race to 20 points in Game 4 of Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat’s Game 3 upset win over the Los Angeles Lakers was essentially a must-win and gave them heartbeat in the NBA Finals. Jimmy Butler had an all-time performance putting up a 40-point triple-double and willed the Heat past the Lakers, 115-104.

Butler did his part in keeping the Heat in this series but it would be a major development if either Bam Adebayo or Goran Dragic could play in Game 4 (both are listed on the injury report as game-time decisions).

Miami looks to even the series in Game 4, Tuesday, in the Orlando bubble at 9 p.m. ET.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Race to 20 points, Heat (+155)

Miami has the momentum coming into this one after stealing Game 3 and I think they are going to come out chucking in Game 4. The Heat have beaten the Lakers to 20 points in two of the three Finals games and that’s partially due to their bevy of three-point shooters that Lakers need to adjust to. Duncan Robinson, Jae Crowder and Tyler Herro are all capable of hitting a few early threes before the Lakers get set on defense.

Also, Bam Adebayo has missed the past two games and his replacement C Meyers Leonard has connected on a three inside the first three minutes of each game. The rationale is simple: Lakers are backing off of Leonard, giving him an open look, to worry about the Heat’s starting three-point specialists.


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It would be awesome if the trend continued in Game 4 and Los Angeles leaves Leonard—who’s shooting .414% from three this season—wide open. If Adebayo is healthy enough to start, then we are getting an All-Star back from injury which is a motivator.

Either way, the Heat will win the race to 20 points (+155) in Game 4. New to sports betting? A $100 bet on the Heat to score 20 points faster than the Lakers (+155) pays a $155 profit.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Finals Game 3 Best Bet: Cashing Jimmy Butler, KCP player props

Looking at the best NBA Finals bets to make, today we focus on player props in Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Miami Heat in Game 3.

The Los Angeles Lakers look to take a commanding 3-0 lead in the NBA Finals against the Miami Heat in the Orlando Bubble at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Miami snuck in the backdoor (covered the spread) in a Lakers’ 124-114 Game 2 win that was never as close as the score indicates. The deck is really stacked against the Heat, who could be without its leading-scorer in Goran Dragic and All-Star Bam Adebayo in Game 3.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Jimmy Butler Over 38.5 points, rebounds & assists (-106)

I’m pushing the numbers aside for a second in this handicap to take a drive through narrativeville.

Miami is banged up right now and it goes without saying that the Heat are going to need a Herculean effort from Jimmy Butler if they have any hope of getting a game in this series. Sure the role players need to hit threes and every Heat player will need to do their part at reducing the rebounding margin.

Questions were answered this season about Butler’s place among NBA stars. He has gelled perfectly with this team and he’s got the talent to fill the box score. Butler’s season average for points, rebounds and assists combined is 32.6.

But as the team’s star, it’s important for Butler to take the reins in Game 3. He had a great Game 2—putting up 25 points, 8 rebounds and 13 assists—and since Game 3 production is needed, Game 3 production is what we’ll get from Butler.


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Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Over 1.5 three-pointers (-176)

The volume isn’t and should not be the issue for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope’s three-pointers made player prop. KCP is leading the Lakers in three-point attempts and is third in minutes played in the Finals. He’ll probably get even more minutes in Game 3 since the other shooting guard Danny Green is playing through a hip injury that forced him to just play 22 minutes in Game 2.

Miami is getting killed in the paint through two games and judging by the injury report it probably won’t get much better in Game 3. As much as 2020 NBA is about the three-ball, the Heat cannot just get bullied and hope this series continues so I figure they’ll be collapsing inside when the ball is in the point.

Anthony Davis has an offensive rating of 144, LeBron James is at 139 and most of their damage has been done on the interior. To compensate the Heat have been playing a lot of zone and zone defense’s biggest flaw is being to able to effectively guard three-point shots.

If Miami uses a zone in Game 3 and Green is hampered with a hip issue, expect KCP to easily clear two threes and I like it up to 2.5 threes made if BetMGM lists a line at plus-money.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Finals Game 2 Best Bet: Cashing Anthony Davis, Tyler Herro player props

Looking at the best NBA Finals bets to make, today we focus on player props in Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Miami Heat in Game 2.

The Miami Heat hope to bounce back from a 116-98 beatdown they took from the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Game 2 tips off in the Orlando bubble at 9:00 p.m. ET.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Anthony Davis Over 32.5 points & assists (-112)

If Game 1 was any indication of how the rest of this series will be played, I’d say Anthony Davis to win Finals MVP would be a great ticket to be holding. Don’t get me wrong, this is LeBron’s team but the offense figures to run through AD even more so now that Bam Adebayo will miss at least Game 2.

He’s had his way with Miami this year with Adebayo in the lineup: AD averaged 29.5 points, nine rebounds and four assists on .595% field goal shooting during the regular season. Davis put up 34 on 11-of-21 shooting and 10-of-10 from the free throw line in Game 1.

I am taking the Anthony Davis Over 32.5 points and assists prop (-115) because the Heat know they have to pay extra attention to AD so he might have to pass out of double teams or make kick-out passes to keep Miami’s defense honest. AD has combined for 33 or more points and assists in nine of his 16 playoff games this season so I think we are getting a good number here.


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Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes made (+115)

Tyler Herro looked as bad in Miami’s Game 1 drubbing. He only connected on 2-of-8 threes and had the worst +/- in the game at -35. But the absence of Dragic is going to create more opportunities for Herro. The Heat are going to need threes to go down so he’ll be taking the shots needed to cash an Over here. I don’t see Herro being too eager to penetrate against LA’s bigs with no Adebayo to throw a lob to.

Also, BetMGM has baked his usage and Dragic’s absence into their Herro player prop line for his points, which is 18.5 (Over -110, Under -115). Herro averaged 13.5 points per game in the regular season, he’s averaging 16.3 PPG in the playoffs and the Lakers are an elite defensive team.

In normal circumstances, Herro’s points prop would be priced at 14.5-15 and it’s a good bet that the additional three will come from behind the arc.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Heat cover Game 1 vs. Lakers

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus the Game 1 NBA Finals meeting between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers.

Game 1 of the first-ever NBA Finals meeting between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat tips off, Wednesday, at 9 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble.

LeBron James is making his ninth Finals appearance in 10 years, and 10th overall, against his former team. The 2019-20 Miami Heat is yet another masterful creation from all-time NBA legend Pat Riley.

Piece-by-piece the Heat were assembled via free agency, drafting and trade deadline acquisitions and armed Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra with the arsenal he needs to take down LeBron and co.

Series Price: Lakers (-358) | Heat (+300)

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Heat +4.5 (-110) vs. Lakers 

There’s been an accurate narrative over this century about the Western Conference being superior to the Eastern Conference, which has been reinforced upon LeBron’s arrival in 2018. However, that narrative is going to be challenged in these NBA Finals as it should.

Miami is playing like the perfect 2020 team. They have the fourth-highest three-point percentage and hold opponents to the fifth-lowest three-point percentage (both ahead of the Lakers). Plus the Heat has the highest free throw attempt rate in the NBA during the regular season and is ranked second in these playoffs.

The Lakers struggled in their first two Game 1s this postseason because they used that game to assess their opponents and adjust. They ended a back-to-back Game 1 losing streak by rolling the Denver Nuggets in the opening game of the Western Conference Finals. My read on that is the Nuggets have more of a straightforward team rotation that the Lakers don’t need to adjust much too.


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The Heat’s versatility and a bevy of scoring options are going to pose a threat to Los Angeles. All they need are two players from the crop of Jae Crowder, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Duncan Robinson to get hot from three and they’ll be in games.

Also, this is your standard Pros vs. Joes matchup in betting markets. The Lakers with LeBron James are the definition of a public team yet on 53% of the money and 54% of the bets are on Los Angeles, according to pregame.com. Furthermore, Los Angeles opened as 5.5-point favorites, but big bets on Miami has taken it down to 4.5. The only explanation for this movement is that sharp money is on the Heat and public money is on the Lakers. We are following the sharp money.

I LIKE Miami to pull off an upset and “LOVE” HEAT +4.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Heat +4.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if Miami wins outright … or loses by four or fewer points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Anthony Davis drops 30, Lakers beat Nuggets

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Los Angeles Lakers vs. the Denver Nuggets.

The Denver Nuggets come into Game 3 of the Western Conference Finals down 2-0 to the Los Angeles Lakers thanks to a buzzer-beater by Anthony Davis to beat them, 105-103. Tip-off is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. ET in the Orlando bubble.

Let’s take a shot at BetMGM’s exclusive prop they call Lions Boost with our Lakers-Nuggets handicap.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Anthony Davis to score 30+ points and Lakers (+250) — ‘Lions Boost’

The Lakers inexplicably gave up a 10-point lead heading into the break and needed Anthony Davis to save them at the end of regulation to be up 2-0. I mentioned in my Lakers-Nuggets Game 2 handicap how the Nuggets have given up the most dunks and layups to opponents this postseason. 

Well, Denver held LA to just 34 points in the paint (the Lakers average second-most points in the paint per game at 52.2 points) and eight fastbreak points (the Lakers averaged the second-most fastbreak points per game at 17.9), yet still lost.

It’s a tough blow to withstand but the Nuggets have the freakish resilience of a crappy horror movie villain. Coming back from 3-1 deficits in two straight series highlights that.

The Nuggets got 30 points from Nikola Jokic, 25 points from Jamal Murray and an efficient 15 points from Michael Porter Jr. Denver can’t squander games like that from their All-Stars and hopeful future franchise cornerstone in Porter Jr.


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AD is averaging 30.8 points per game on 54% field goal shooting in six games, including the playoffs, against Denver this season. In 15 career games against Jokic, AD is averaging 29.6 points per game and he failed to score in six minutes during his first game against Jokic. Davis has a 50-point game, two 40-point games and five 40-point games out of his 15 career games versus Jokic.

The Nuggets have a lot of fight in them so I am weary of laying seven points to bet the Lakers against the spread. However, I am very confident in AD’s ability to get buckets plus getting LA without needing to win by a certain margin at a +250 payout is too exciting to pass up.

A $100 wager on this Lion’s Boost BetMGM special bet for Anthony Davis to score 30-plus points and the Lakers to win outright (+250) pays a $250 profit if they happen.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Miami Heat cover Game 3 vs. Boston Celtics

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Boston Celtics vs. the Miami Heat.

The Miami Heat are up 2-0 on the Boston Celtics in their Eastern Conference Finals series heading into Game 3 Saturday. Emotions ran hot in Boston’s locker room following its Game 2 loss, 106-101.

The Celtics need to harness that intensity and use it to avoid going down an insurmountable 3-0 series deficit.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.

Heat +2.5 (-110) vs. Celtics

The Celtics -2.5 (-110) entered this series as a slight favorite and I don’t think the market accurately weighed the discrepancy in depth between the two rosters. 

Gordon Hayward has been sidelined with a sprained ankle he suffered in Game 2 of Boston’s first-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers. Hayward being upgraded to “questionable” is welcomed news, but if he cannot give it a go or struggles in his return than Boston isn’t getting enough help.


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Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker, Jaylen Brown and Marcus Smart are all scoring north of 19 points per the first two games, but the Heat +2.5 (-110) have been just too dynamic. Miami has six players averaging double-digit points per game, they have 16 more assists and are shooting 23 percentage points higher from three-point land than Boston in this series.

The tension with the Celtics players linked above is a sign of their frustration with Miami’s style. The Heat are moving the ball, setting screens for shooters and running dribble handoffs, all in an effort to create open looks for their second-ranked three-point shooting team. Goran Dragić, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and Duncan Robinson are all shooting 40% or better from three. Two of those guys could have a bad game and Miami still shoots well from three as a team.

Also see: Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat Game 3 odds, picks and best bets

There COVID-altered NBA atmosphere makes it hard to come off of gambling reads in my opinion. There is no travel or many outside influences that could affect the prices. It’s only the market’s action that is dictating these prices and I’m on Miami in this series. They are 10-1 in these playoffs and are completely in rhythm.

It’s an absolute must-win for the Celtics so I’ll layoff the money line. But I have to BET HEAT +2.5 (-110) in Game 3. New to sports betting? A $110 wager on the Heat +2.5 (-110) returns a $100 profit if Miami wins or loses by two or one points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Toronto Raptors to win Game 5 vs. Boston Celtics

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Boston Celtics vs. the Toronto Raptors.

Monday’s NBA card features two tied series in each conference. The Boston Celtics meet the Toronto Raptors in Game 5 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals and the Los Angeles Clippers play the Denver Nuggets in the Western Conference Semifinals.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Raptors (EVEN/-100) to beat the Celtics

OG Anunoby’s buzzer-beater to win Game 3 was one of the signature moments of the NBA restart and single-handedly reversed the course of this series. The Raptors were down 2-0 and no team has come back from 3-0 to win a series.

Toronto carried that momentum into Game 4 and got gutsy performances out of Kyle Lowery, Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet. One of the adjustments NBA Coach of the Year, Nick Nurse, has made is the extended playing time for Lowery and VanVleet.

Both have played more than 45 minutes in the past two games. According to the NBA community, Nurse’s rationale for this is all the officiating replays and huddles providing hidden breaks for his players.


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Nick Nurse is showing why he was named NBA’s Coach of the Year in this series. Toronto is finally looking like the defensive team we saw in the regular season (2nd in defensive efficiency) and held Boston to under 100 points for the first time in the series.

In regard to the defensive adjustments, Nurse said:  “We’re trying to provide help and we’re trying to show them different looks and different matchups and things to try to keep some rhythm in our favor.

Whatever zone or help schemes Nurse is employing are working. The Celtics shot a combined 32-77 from deep in the first two games, while they were just 16-64 in Games 3 and 4.

While Anunoby’s buzz-beater can be reasoned as lucky, I’d argue that Marcus Smart’s five 3-pointer fourth quarter in Game 2 was a lucky turn of events for Boston. Jayson Tatum may very well be the Eastern Conference player of the playoffs (I just made that up); but the battle-tested Raptors have figured out his co-stars. Toronto’s depth and experience are what will push them past Boston. 

This is a great matchup, bet the RAPTORS (EVEN/-100) TAKE GAME 5 and control of the series.   

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Houston Rockets, Los Angeles Lakers go Under in Game 2

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Houston Rockets vs. the Los Angeles Lakers.

The Los Angeles Lakers are in a familiar position heading into Game 2 of their Western Conference Semifinals series against the Houston Rockets (down 1-0). In a major playoff plot twist, the Miami Heat look to complete a sweep of 1-seed Milwaukee Bucks.

Our action is going on the West’s second-round matchup.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Under 222.5 (-110) in Rockets vs. Lakers

If you are paying attention to the NBA restart then you’ve heard people talk about Houston’s defensive awakening and Los Angeles’ offensive struggles. The Rockets have seamlessly transitioned into a hardnose defensive team.

They have the best defensive rating in the playoffs and are ranked 2nd in opponent’s 3-point percentage and 5th in opponent’s free throw attempts. We saw these manifest in Game 1 where the Lakers only attempted 19 free throws and shot .289% from three.

Los Angeles supposedly fixed its offense after Game 1 of their first-round series against the Portland Trail Blazers, when they scored 93 points, but that was a far worse defensive team that was also banged up.


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We got some trendy reasons to like the Under 222.5 (-110) in the Rockets-Lakers. Houston has a 3-5 Over/Under record and the lowest O/U margin in the playoffs (-10.6). Los Angeles is 2-4 O/U themselves and has a -6 O/U margin. The total has gone Under in four of  Lakers’ last five games against the Rockets and 11 of Houston’s last 15 games this season. 

There’s a wide discrepancy between the sharps and joes on the total as well. According to Pregame.com, 76% of the total money wagered has been on the Under compared to just 58% of the tickets being on the Under. The amount of money wagered is sharper than the tickets because sharps bet more money than you or I. 

Defenses will pace Game 2, TAKE UNDER 222.5 (-110). New to sports betting? A $110 bet on Under 222.5 (-110) pays a $100 profit if the Rockets-Lakers combine for 222 or fewer total points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Houston Rockets cover versus Los Angeles Lakers

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Houston Rockets vs. the Los Angeles Lakers.

The 1-seeds take center stage in the NBA Friday. The Milwaukee Bucks hope to get back into their second-round series against the Miami Heat after dropping the first two games and the Los Angeles Lakers versus Houston Rockets begin their series.

Let’s hone in on the Western Conference Semifinals for today’s bet.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Houston Rockets +6 (-110) versus LA Lakers

The most impressive aspect of the Rockets’ +6 (-110) first-round series win over the Oklahoma City Thunder was their tenacious defense. Houston had the best defensive rating in the first round and James Harden punctuated its incredible defensive effort with a decisive block of Lu Dort’s 3-point attempt at the end of Game 7.

That defensive ferociousness will need to carry over against the Lakers -6 (-110), who struggled offensively against a healthy Portland Trail Blazers and at the end of the regular season restart. Houston won and covered in two of the three regular-season games versus Los Angeles.


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Russell Westbrook has ripped through the Lakers this season:  38 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6 assists on .627% shooting in two games versus Los Angeles. He’s played in the final three games of Houston’s first-round series against the Oklahoma City Thunder after missing six straight.

Westbrook’s minutes and volume have increased over those games and a fully ramped up Westbrook is bad news for Houston. The best part about Westbrook’s games against the Lakers was that he only attempted two 3’s in both games. He was aggressive about attacking the rim and if plays like that it should open up looks for Rockets role players.

The Rockets are 4-1 ATS when getting 5-7 points and the Lakers are 6-9 ATS when laying that many points. Houston has the 4th-highest cover % as an underdog in the NBA.  If Houston can give a weak Lakers offense some challenges and knock down some open 3’s the ROCKETS +6 (-110) WILL CASH.

New to sports betting? A $110 bet on the Rockets +6 (-110) pays a $100 profit if Houston wins or loses by five or fewer points.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

NBA Best Bet of the Day: Kawhi Leonard drops 30, LA Clippers win

Looking at the best NBA playoffs bets to make each day, today we focus on the Denver Nuggets vs. the Los Angeles Clippers.

Now that the first round is finally behind us, we can turn all of our attention to the conference semifinals. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors square off in Game 3 of their series and Game 1 of the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers second-round series tips off Thursday.

BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you the best bet for every day of the NBA playoffs.

Kawhi to score 30+ points & Clippers win (+150)

Playoff” Kawhi Leonard is a real thing. He’s jumped up to 32.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on .538% field goal shooting per game from regular season marks of 27.1 points and 7.1 rebounds on .470% shooting.

Kawhi scored 30-plus points in five of the six games in the first round against the Dallas Mavericks. His Usage % is down to 30.8 to 33 USG % in the regular season, but he’s still 12 points more efficient per 100 possessions, a 50-point higher True Shooting %, and a 32.2 PER (26.9 PER in regular season).

The one thing absent from his game in these playoffs, and in the regular-season meetings with Denver, is his 3-point shooting. Kawhi shot under .294% from deep in the first round and only .250% in his three games this season versus the Nuggets. Also, the main factor for this BetMGM special parlay price is due to Kawhi only scoring 30 points in one of those games.


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But Denver and their first-round opponent, the Utah Jazz, are tied for the playoff-lead in 3-point % (.421%). And the Nuggets were league-average this season in most defensive categories. 

If you think those percentages look good, you should see the Clippers’ implied win probability (82%) which is calculated by their moneyline price (Clippers -455). But in a weird way, we are rooting for the Nuggets +9 (-110) spread wager to pay out and the Clippers win in a close game.

There is a better chance of higher Kawhi usage if the game is tighter. It would be in our benefit if the Clippers got down early because of poor shooting from role players and then Kawhi decided to take over the game in the second half. That’s how this ticket cashes.

We are chasing the value but GIMME KAWHI 30+ POINTS & CLIPPERS TO WIN (+150). New to sports betting? A $100 wager on the Kawhi prop and Los Angeles victory profits $150 if Kawhi scores 30-plus points and the Clippers win Game 1.

Get some action on this game or others by placing a legal NBA bet in CO, IN, NJ and WV at BetMGM Sportsbook.

For more NBA sports betting tips and advice, visit SportsbookWire. Follow @Geoffery_Clark on Twitter, and follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like them on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]