Now that the first round is finally behind us, we can turn all of our attention to the conference semifinals. The Boston Celtics and Toronto Raptors square off in Game 3 of their series and Game 1 of the Denver Nuggets, Los Angeles Clippers second-round series tips off Thursday.
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Kawhi to score 30+ points & Clippers win (+150)
“Playoff” Kawhi Leonard is a real thing. He’s jumped up to 32.8 points and 10.2 rebounds per game on .538% field goal shooting per game from regular season marks of 27.1 points and 7.1 rebounds on .470% shooting.
Kawhi scored 30-plus points in five of the six games in the first round against the Dallas Mavericks. His Usage % is down to 30.8 to 33 USG % in the regular season, but he’s still 12 points more efficient per 100 possessions, a 50-point higher True Shooting %, and a 32.2 PER (26.9 PER in regular season).
The one thing absent from his game in these playoffs, and in the regular-season meetings with Denver, is his 3-point shooting. Kawhi shot under .294% from deep in the first round and only .250% in his three games this season versus the Nuggets. Also, the main factor for this BetMGM special parlay price is due to Kawhi only scoring 30 points in one of those games.
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But Denver and their first-round opponent, the Utah Jazz, are tied for the playoff-lead in 3-point % (.421%). And the Nuggets were league-average this season in most defensive categories.
If you think those percentages look good, you should see the Clippers’ implied win probability (82%) which is calculated by their moneyline price (Clippers -455). But in a weird way, we are rooting for the Nuggets +9 (-110) spread wager to pay out and the Clippers win in a close game.
There is a better chance of higher Kawhi usage if the game is tighter. It would be in our benefit if the Clippers got down early because of poor shooting from role players and then Kawhi decided to take over the game in the second half. That’s how this ticket cashes.
We are chasing the value but GIMME KAWHI 30+ POINTS & CLIPPERS TO WIN (+150). New to sports betting? A $100 wager on the Kawhi prop and Los Angeles victory profits $150 if Kawhi scores 30-plus points and the Clippers win Game 1.
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