The Miami Heat hope to bounce back from a 116-98 beatdown they took from the Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Game 2 tips off in the Orlando bubble at 9:00 p.m. ET.
BetMGM Sportsbook has NBA odds and NBA props for all NBA games, so we’re bringing you locks throughout the NBA playoffs.
Anthony Davis Over 32.5 points & assists (-112)
If Game 1 was any indication of how the rest of this series will be played, I’d say Anthony Davis to win Finals MVP would be a great ticket to be holding. Don’t get me wrong, this is LeBron’s team but the offense figures to run through AD even more so now that Bam Adebayo will miss at least Game 2.
He’s had his way with Miami this year with Adebayo in the lineup: AD averaged 29.5 points, nine rebounds and four assists on .595% field goal shooting during the regular season. Davis put up 34 on 11-of-21 shooting and 10-of-10 from the free throw line in Game 1.
I am taking the Anthony Davis Over 32.5 points and assists prop (-115) because the Heat know they have to pay extra attention to AD so he might have to pass out of double teams or make kick-out passes to keep Miami’s defense honest. AD has combined for 33 or more points and assists in nine of his 16 playoff games this season so I think we are getting a good number here.
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Tyler Herro Over 2.5 threes made (+115)
Tyler Herro looked as bad in Miami’s Game 1 drubbing. He only connected on 2-of-8 threes and had the worst +/- in the game at -35. But the absence of Dragic is going to create more opportunities for Herro. The Heat are going to need threes to go down so he’ll be taking the shots needed to cash an Over here. I don’t see Herro being too eager to penetrate against LA’s bigs with no Adebayo to throw a lob to.
Also, BetMGM has baked his usage and Dragic’s absence into their Herro player prop line for his points, which is 18.5 (Over -110, Under -115). Herro averaged 13.5 points per game in the regular season, he’s averaging 16.3 PPG in the playoffs and the Lakers are an elite defensive team.
In normal circumstances, Herro’s points prop would be priced at 14.5-15 and it’s a good bet that the additional three will come from behind the arc.
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