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The Navy Midshipmen (4-0) and Air Force Falcons (1-3) meet at Falcon Stadium Saturday. Kickoff is scheduled for noon ET (CBS/Paramount+). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s college football odds around the Navy vs. Air Force odds, and make our expert college football picks and predictions.
Navy is off to a perfect 4-0 start this season after a decisive 41-18 win over UAB, easily covering as a 4.5-point favorite and exceeding the 56-point total. QB Blake Horvath had a standout game, completing 9 of 11 passes for 225 yards with 2 TDs while leading the team in rushing with 84 yards and a score on 13 carries.
The defense stepped up, limiting UAB to just 18 points. As Navy averages 46 points per game but allows 23.5, it’ll need its 68th-ranked defense to tighten up to keep its winning streak alive.
Air Force started strong with a 21-6 win over Merrimack in the opener, but has struggled since. It’s coming off a 31-19 loss as a 4-point favorite at Wyoming Sept. 28. The offense has been underwhelming, totaling only 41 points in the last 3 games.
QB John Busha completed 6 of 13 passes for 115 yards while RB Aiden Calvert rushed for 54 yards and a TD. With an average of only 12.5 points per game (131st in the nation) and a defense allowing 21.3 points (49th), Air Force needs a strong performance to turn its season around.
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Navy at Air Force odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college football odds. Lines last updated at 12:26 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Navy -375 (bet $375 to win $100) | Air Force +290 (bet $100 to win $290)
- Against the spread (ATS): Navy -10 (-110) | Air Force +10 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 36.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Navy at Air Force picks and predictions
Prediction
Navy 24, Air Force 10
Moneyline
PASS.
Navy (-375) will win and cover Saturday as the heavy favorite, which is why I’ll save my wager for the spread.
Against the spread
BET NAVY -10 (-110).
While the Falcons will undoubtedly bring their rivalry spirit to the game, their recent struggles can’t be overlooked. With only 2 covers in their last 10 games, they are in a downward spiral.
On the flip side, the Midshipmen are riding high with 3 consecutive covers and have one of the top offenses in college football.
Even though Air Force has had success against Navy in recent years, this matchup feels different. The underdog has performed well historically, but given Air Force’s current state, NAVY -10 (-110) looks like a solid bet for a decisive road victory.
Over/Under
BET UNDER 36.5 (-105).
It’s that time again — service academy Unders!
Betting the Under when Navy and Air Force clash has been a goldmine, with a record of 44-9-1 (83%) in the last 54 matchups between service academies. Sure, a trend alone isn’t enough to justify a bet, but the reasoning behind it is solid.
Both teams rely heavily on run-first offenses that eat up the clock, and they’re built to stop each other’s style of play. Over the last 3 seasons, these games averaged a total of 37.5 points, but only saw 24 combined points scored. Even with a line set at 36.5, there’s still value in betting the Under.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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