Tag: Nationals Mets odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (9-14) wrap up a 3-game series against the New York Mets (14-11) on Thursday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 2-0

The Nationals defeated the Mets 4-1 on Wednesday to give them 2 straight wins to begin the series. Washington has won 4 of its last 5 contests.

The bats of the Mets continued to struggle Wednesday, mustering up just 4 hits. New York has now lost 4 straight games.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Trevor Williams vs. LHP Joey Lucchesi

Williams (1-1, 3.38 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 through 21 1/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 or more ER in 3 of his first 4 starts
  • Credited with a win in only 3 of his last 13 starts dating back to last season

Lucchesi (1-0, 0.00 ERA) makes his 2nd start. He has a 0.86 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.6 K/9 through 7 IP.

  • Tossed 7 scoreless IP with 4 H and 2 BB with 9 K at the San Francisco Giants Friday, his first start since 2021
  • Hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in a start since May 3, 2021, although that’s a span of just 7 starts due to injury

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +195 (bet $100 to win $195) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+100) | Mets -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets (-250) are expected to secure the victory on Thursday, but wagering on them isn’t advised as the risk isn’t worth the reward with the odds being well over -200.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-120) is the pick in this contest as it is hard to expect New York to get swept by Washington at home. While the Mets have struggled to generate runs in this series thus far, Williams is allowing a career-worst 13.2% barrel percentage this season.

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Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-105) is the lean in this NL East matchup as the Nationals have scored 4-plus runs in each of the first 2 games of the series. Meanwhile, I expect the Mets to finally score a decent number of runs to finish out the series.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Nationals (8-14) play the 2nd game of a 3-game series against the New York Mets (14-10) on Wednesday at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 1-0

The Nationals beat the Mets 5-0 on Tuesday with RHP Josiah Gray tossing 6 scoreless IP with 4 H with 1 BB and 9 K. Washington has won 3 of its last 4 games.

Six Mets’ batters struck out multiple times Tuesday. New York is amid a 3-game losing skid despite winning 6 of its last 10 games.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Mackenzie Gore vs. RHP Kodai Senga

Gore (2-1, 3.43 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 21 IP.

  • Struck out at least 6 batters in each of his first 4 starts
  • Tallied 4 BB or more in 3 of his first 4 starts

Senga (3-0, 4.29 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 6.0 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 21 IP.

  • Issued 3 BB or more in each of his first 4 starts
  • Allowed a combined 8 ER on 12 H with 8 BB and 11 K in 9 2/3 IP in his last 2 starts.

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +170 (bet $100 to win $170) | Mets -210 (bet $210 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-115) | Mets 1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Mets (-210) should win Wednesday, but wagering on their moneyline at the current odds isn’t worth the risk.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-105) has solid value as I expect New York to bounce back after Tuesday’s shutout loss. The Mets have hit 12 HRs against LHP this season, which is the 3rd most in baseball.

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8 (-120).

Even though both Gore and Senga have been solid to start the season, walks could be an issue in Wednesday’s NL East showdown. The Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams and 7-3-1 in their last 11 meetings in New York.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 2 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 2 odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (55-104) and New York Mets (98-61) play the second game of a 3-game set as part of a doubleheader Tuesday at Citi Field. Game 2 is expected to begin around approximately 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets Game 2 odds with MLB picks and predictions.

(Stats and records don’t include the first game of Tuesday’s doubleheader)

Season series: Mets lead 11-5

The series opener was postponed Monday due to rain and will be made up as part of a doubleheader Tuesday.

The Nationals dropped 3 of 4 games vs. the Philadelphia Phillies after a rain-shortened 8-1 loss at home Sunday.

Washington is 3-7 in its last 10 games.

The Mets still have a slim chance to win the NL East after getting swept in a 3-game series at the Atlanta Braves over the weekend. New York’s sole path to the division is a 3-game sweep of the Nationals coupled with a Miami Marlins sweep over the Braves.

Mets 2B Jeff McNeil is batting .326 on the season, 1 point ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers 1B Freddie Freeman for the MLB lead.

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Nationals at Mets Game 2 projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Espino (0-8, 4.30 ERA) makes his 19th start and 42nd appearance. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 through 113 IP.

  • Last start: Loss vs. the Atlanta Braves last Tuesday with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K
  • 2022 vs. the Mets: 0-0 with a 1.42 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 1 ER) in 3 relief appearances

Walker (12-5, 3.59 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 through 153 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision vs. the Marlins Wednesday with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 8 K
  • Last start vs. the Nationals: Win on the road May 12 with 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB and 1 K

Nationals at Mets Game 2 odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:45 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +215 (bet $100 to win $215) | Mets -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-101) | Mets -1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -101 | U: -120)

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Nationals at Mets Game 2 picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Nationals 1

Moneyline

PASS.

The price on Mets (-280) moneyline is a bit steep. Bet on the run line or the total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

BET METS -1.5 (120).

The Mets should have no problem winning by margin vs. the league-worst Washington Nationals. Six of New York’s last 7 wins have been by multiple runs.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).

The Under is 5-0-1 in Washington’s last 6 road games and the Nationals are bottom-10 in MLB in runs per game on the road (3.87). Washington’s inability to manufacture runs away from home should help this game go Under the total.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (55-104) begin a 3-game series with the New York Mets (98-61) to conclude the season Monday at Citi Field. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 11-5

The Nationals have had a forgettable season in 2022. Washington has lost 7 of its last 10 games, though they could hurt the chances of New York winning the NL East with a win Monday.

The Mets had an opportunity to extend their lead in the NL East in their most recent 3-game series against the Atlanta Braves, only to get swept. If the season were to end right now, New York would be 2 games back from Atlanta in the NL East and would have the No. 1 wild-card spot in the NL.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

RHP Cory Abbott vs. RHP Carlos Carrasco

Abbott (0-4, 5.11 ERA) makes his 9th start and 16th appearance. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 44 IP.

  • Has given up 4 ER in each of his last 2 starts
  • Aug. 2 vs. Mets: 5 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 3 K

Carrasco (15-7, 3.95 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.32 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 148 IP.

  • Has given up 7 runs over 7 innings across his last 2 starts
  • Sept. 4 vs. Nationals: 2 2/3 IP, 6 H, 5 R (1 ER), 2 BB, 2 K

Nationals at Mets odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Nationals +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Mets -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (+110) | Mets (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 3

Moneyline

Go ahead and PASS on the moneyline in this game as the Mets are heavy favorites at home. Taking New York straight up doesn’t make sense given the team’s current odds to win.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (-135) seems to be the ideal run-line wager in this game as New York is desperate to win the rest of its games in hopes to reclaim the top spot in the NL East. The Mets also have a massive advantage on the mound and the Nationals don’t have anything to play for as they conclude the season.

In the previous 16 meetings between the Nationals and the Mets this season, the winner of each game has won by multiple runs.

Over/Under

The Under is 5-1 in the Nationals’ last 6 road games and 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter; the Mets have hit the Over in 6 of their last 7 games.

Give me OVER 7.5 RUNS (-107) as New York should be able to score a decent number of runs with Abbott on the mound.

The Over is 9-0 in Carrasco’s last 9 starts in the first game of a season series. On top of that, the Over is 5-2-1 in the previous 8 meetings between the Nationals and the Mets in New York.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (45-87) take on the New York Mets (85-48) in the second game of a 3-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citi Field is at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 11-3

The Nationals enter Saturday’s NL East showdown having lost 4 of their last 7 games, including Friday’s series opener. RHP Josiah Gray struggled for Washington Friday as he gave up 6 ER on 6 H and 4 BB with just 2 K across 5 IP.

The Mets remain one of the best teams in baseball and have won 6 of their last 8 contests. New York owns the 2nd-best record in the NL while they sit atop the NL East with a 3-game lead over the Atlanta Braves.

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Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Max Scherzer

Corbin (5-17, 6.56 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 1.76 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 127 2/3 IP.

  • Last 10 starts: 46 IP, 1-7 record, 7.43 ERA, 71 H, 15 BB, 10 HR, 38 K
  • Aug. 1 vs. Mets: 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 K

Scherzer (9-4, 2.27 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 0.93 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 through 122 2/3 IP.

  • Has pitched 6 or more innings in 14 of his last 15 starts
  • Aug. 1 at Nationals: 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 5 K

Nationals at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +330 (bet $100 to win $330) | Mets -450 (bet $450 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +2.5 (-115) | Mets -2.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +100 | U: -125)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 9, Nationals 2

Money line

AVOID wagering on the money line in this game as while the Mets (-450) should have no issues taking care of the Nationals at home, it’s not worth taking their money line straight up.

Run line/Against the spread

Some people may refrain from taking teams that have -2.5 run spreads, but METS -2.5 (-105) is an intriguing bet. The Nationals have been outscored 17-3 in Corbin’s last 2 starts vs. the Mets.

For those that don’t want to take the -2.5 spread for the entire game, METS -1.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS (-113) is a nice alternative.

Over/Under

All signs point toward the Under being the play in this game. However, we saw 10 runs scored in the last meeting between Corbin and Scherzer back on Aug. 1. So give me OVER 7.5 (+100) as the Mets could produce 8 or more runs single-handedly against the shaky southpaw.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions

The Washington Nationals (18-32) and New York Mets (33-17) meet Tuesday for the second game of a 3-game set at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: The Mets won the series opener Monday by a 13-5 count, running their record to 6-2 in 8 meetings with the Nationals this season.

The Nationals dropped the series opener and are just 2-6 in their last 8 road games.

The Mets have averaged 8.5 runs per game across a 4-game win streak. New York has scored 8 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 outings.

Nationals at Mets projected starters

LHP Patrick Corbin vs. RHP Trevor Williams

Corbin (1-7, 6.30 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.66 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 50 IP.

  • Posted just his 3rd quality start in 10 outings last time out in a win against the Colorado Rockies Thursday, allowing 3 runs in 6.1 IP.
  • Is a dismal 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and .312 opponent batting average through 21 IP over 4 road outings.

Williams (0-3, 4.37 ERA) makes his 4th start and 9th appearance. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 22 2/3 IP.

  • Has allowed 2 unearned runs on 4 hits and a walk with 2 strikeouts across 4 2/3 IP across two relief appearances against the Nationals this season.
  • Is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA in 1 start and 2 relief appearances while striking out 13 batters across 8 1/3 IP at home.

Nationals at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:56 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Nationals +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Mets -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Nationals at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 7, Nationals 4

Money line

The Mets (-180) are a little too pricey for my liking straight up. It’s a little difficult to trust Williams, although Corbin has won just one time for the Nationals, and overall the 32-year-old has looked really lost this season.

PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread

The METS -1.5 (+110) are a little better of a value on the run line. New York’s bats came alive with a 13-5 pounding of Washington in the series opener Monday.

That’s now 4 wins in a row for the Mets and 6 straight victories at home. Three of the 4 straight victories have been by 3 or more runs, and the average margin of victory is 4.3 runs per outing during the 4-game streak.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (+105) is the lean, and it’s a little surprising to see plus-money. The Mets have cashed in the Over in 7 straight outings, while the Nats have cashed the Over in 4 of their last 5 contests and 7 of their last 9.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (61-67) host the Washington Nationals (55-72) Saturday at Citi Field for the second game of their three-game series. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington won the series opener Friday 2-1 in what was New York’s fourth straight game it has scored 2 or fewer runs. All the Nationals needed was a 2-run 3rd inning to win the contest.

Season series: Tied 6-6.

LHP Sean Nolin makes his third start for the Nationals. Nolin is 0-2 with a 9.00 ERA (7 IP, 7 ER), 14 H, 3 BB and 7 K across starts at the Mets (Aug. 12) and at the Milwaukee Brewers (Sunday).

RHP Marcus Stroman is New York’s projected starter. Stroman is 9-12 with a 2.85 ERA (145 1/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 26 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB and 6 K at the Los Angeles Dodgers Sunday.
  • Stroman is 1-1 against Washington this season with a 4.82 ERA (9 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 12 K in two starts.
  • vs. Nationals on the current roster (56 PA): 4.03 FIP with a .280 batting average, .346 wOBA, .451 expected slugging percentage, 25.0 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:37 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-120) | Mets -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS even though New York is the right side because there’s no way Mets (-220) has any value based on their recent form.

However, New York is still nine games above .500 at home this season, Washington is 15 games below .500 on the road and the Mets have a sizable edge in pitching.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-105) for a one-third unit despite the Mets being 14-33 ATS as a home favorite and the Nationals 25-23 ATS as a road underdog. Also, New York’s lineup is 18th in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching.

That said, Stroman is the far better starter and Washington’s bullpen ranks dead-last in K-BB%, xFIP and SIERA following the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (+105) for a half unit because we are a little late to the party as the Nationals-Mets opened with an 8.5-run total before both “sharp” and public money steamed it down the current number.

Furthermore, New York is 13-29-3 O/U as a home favorite, 21-30-2 O/U vs. NL East teams and 8-15 O/U when Stroman gets the start. The Under has cashed in Stroman’s last five starts as a favorite.

On top of that, the Mets are 7-13-2 O/U as a money line home favorite of -150 or greater with an average total of 7.0 runs scored. Also, Citi Field has the second-lowest runs scored by park factors in the majors.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (54-72) stop by Citi Field Friday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (61-66); first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington has lost two straight road series and four of its last five games against the Miami Marlins and Milwaukee Brewers.

New York lost six of its last seven games to the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers and has dropped 11 of its last 13 games.

Season series: Mets lead 6-5.

RHP Paolo Espino is Washington’s projected starter. He is 3-4 with a 4.28 ERA (75 2/3 IP, 36 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 12 starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 6 K in Washington’s 9-6 loss against the Brewers Saturday.
  • Espino is 1-0 against New York this season with 7 IP 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB and 3 K in two starts and one relief outing.

LHP Rich Hill is on the mound for the Mets. He is 6-5 with a 4.13 ERA (122 IP, 56 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 24 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB and 2 K Saturday at the Los Angeles Dodgers.
  • Hill lost to Washington June 29 (4-3) while pitching for the Tampa Bay Rays with a stat line of 6 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 2 K.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Mets -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Mets -1.5 (+105)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 5

Money line (ML)

PASS even though I agree with New York being a sizeable favorite here because the Mets (-200) are a little too expensive given how terrible they’ve been over the past month.

New York is just 9-21 over its last 30 games, which is the same previous 30-game mark as Washington, but the Mets were first in the NL East before their freefall whereas the Nationals were sellers at the trade deadline.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the NATIONALS +1.5 (-130) for a half unit because Washington is a much wiser wager in this spot.

The Nationals are 24-23 ATS as road underdogs and 28-28 ATS vs. NL East teams. While the Mets are 14-32 ATS as home favorites despite being 29-17 outright as a home favorite. They’re also just 20-32 ATS against divisional foes.

It’s only a “lean” toward Washington because the Nationals’ bullpen has the worst WAR, xFIP, K-BB% and SIERA in the second half.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-125) for a half unit because of the aforementioned struggles with Washington’s bullpen and the Nationals’ hitting numbers against left-handed pitching. For example, Washington’s lineup ranks second in wRC+ and first in wOBA against left-handed pitching.

However, my reason for just “leaning” to the Over is most of the applicable situational trends point to this being a lower-scoring affair and the sharps are backing the Under while the public is betting the Over, according to Pregame.com.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-63) and New York Mets (57-55) got in one game Wednesday, a come from behind 8-7 victory for the Mets, however the nightcap was rained out so now the teams will play a doubleheader Thursday. First pitch for Game 1 is set for 12:10 p.m. ET at Citi Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Nationals are calling on LHP Sean Nolin (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to make his first major league appearance since 2015. He made six starts that season for Oakland and recorded a 5.28 ERA, 1.62 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 4.7 K/9 in 29 IP.

  • Nolin has a 3.80 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 across 47 1/3 IP in nine starts and two relief appearances at Triple-A this season.
  • The 31-year-old has just eight big league appearances to his name and has compiled a 6.89 ERA and a poor 15/13 K/BB in 31 1/3 IP.

Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (7-11, 2.83 ERA) makes his 25th start of the season. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 through 127 1/3 IP.

  • Stroman has made 12 starts at home this season, where he has recorded a 3.07 ERA and 7.6 K/9 across 55 2/3 IP.
  • Though he lacks dominant stuff, Stroman does a great job of limiting walks and keeping the ball in the park. He has surrendered just 5 walks and 3 homers in 38 2/3 IP over his past seven starts.

Nationals at Mets Game 1 odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:50 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Mets -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-135) | Mets -1.5 (+110)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 5, Nationals 3

Money line (ML)

Both teams have struggled lately with the Nationals losing seven of their last eight games and the Mets seven of their last nine.

New York comes into the game with a 34-20 record at home, while Washington has struggled to a 21-33 record on the road.

Even so, the line here is pretty steep, so PASS on the money line. 

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets have the clear pitching edge in this matchup. Stroman carries a sub-3.00 ERA and the ability to chew up innings while Nolin hasn’t appeared in the majors in six years and has never had success at the highest level.

New York’s offense hasn’t been great lately, as yesterday’s game marked the first time since July 21st it scored more than 5 runs in a game. However, the Mets are in a great spot today against Nolin and a suspect relief corps that will back him up.

Side with the METS -1.5 (+110) as they should do enough to win by more than a single run.

Over/Under (O/U)

The total has gone over in nine of the last 10 for Washington, thanks in large part to their poor pitching that has allowed 6.2 runs per game during that time.

There’s a good chance we see another rough outing on the mound from the Nationals today. Even in a seven-inning game, this total is too low so take OVER 6.5 (-108).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (50-62) stop by Citi Field Tuesday to start a three-game series with the New York Mets (56-55) at 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Nationals vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Nationals lead 5-3.

RHP Paolo Espino takes the mound for the Nationals. Espino is 3-3 with a 3.66 ERA (66 1/3 IP, 27 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 6.6 K/9 in nine starts and 16 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-5, with 5 IP, 6 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 3 K against the Philadelphia Phillies Wednesday.
  • 2021 road splits: 0-0 with a 4.71 ERA (21 IP, 11 ER), 1.19 WHIP and 4.3 K/BB in two starts and 10 bullpen outings.

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his third start for the Mets. Carrasco is 0-0 with a 3.24 ERA (8 1/3 IP, 3 ER), 8 H, 1 BB and 9 K this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 5-3 win at the Miami Marlins Wednesday.

Nationals at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Nationals +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | Mets -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-112) | Mets -1.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Nationals 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Mets (-250) since they are obviously the right side because New York is 12 games above .500 against righty starters and 13 games above .500 at home.

Furthermore, there’s no way I can risk two-and-a-half times my potential return on a Mets team that’s in the midst of a freefall.

New York is 2-8 in the last 10 games, 7-13 in the past 20, and has fallen 2.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies for first place in the NL East.

It would appear this is your typically cursed Mets season but since Carrasco is in his first season in New York maybe he hasn’t gotten the memo.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS -1.5 (-108) for a tiny wager because New York has an edge in the three most important phases of the game (bullpen, starting pitching and hitting) and is obviously a better price point.

Washington also moved several quality bullpen arms at the trade deadline. Not so coincidently, the Nationals bullpen has the third-most blown saves, second-worst SIERA, second-worst xFIP and second-worst K-BB% since the trade deadline.

It’s only a “lean” because despite New York being buyers at the trade deadline and Washington sellers, the Mets lineup has been much worse than the Nationals since then.

Also, New York has the fourth-worst cover rate against divisional foes at 19-30 ATS and is 13-28 ATS as a home favorite whereas Washington is 21-19 ATS as a road underdog.

For instance, Washington is middle of the pack in hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and WAR while New York ranks in the bottom 6 in each of those categories since the trade deadline.

That said, the Mets’ lineup has a lot more talent and has the third-highest BB/K rate in the second half of the season, which really helps against a Washington pitching staff that’s lost the plate since the All-Star Game.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-115) because the market is barreling into the Over yet we have a “line freeze” and if anything the total is moving in the opposite direction.

According to Pregame.com, more than 90% of the cash wagered is on the Over but the total is still at the 8.50-run opener and the Under is juiced heavier.

The reason for this live movement, or lack thereof, could be the Mets playing in the highest rate of Unders in divisional games and the Nationals playing to the Under at the third-highest rate against NL East foes. And again, both lineups have been terrible this month.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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