Nationals Cubs odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Washington Nationals (37-56) and Chicago Cubs (43-49) open up a 3-game set at Wrigley Field Monday. First pitch is at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Nationals lead 3-1

The Nats have played a bit better of late, though they’re 3-7 over the last 10. They have 9 wins in their last 20 games. SS CJ Abrams has came out of the All-Star break raking, going 6-for-13 (.462), with 3 extra-base hits and 2 steals.

The Cubs have been stuck in neutral, unable to string wins together. They’re 5-5 and 9-11 over the last 10 and 20 games, respectively, and have fallen 8 games out of the NL Central. This will be a big week in determining their course of action for the trade deadline with a 7-game homestand against the Nats and St. Louis Cardinals.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

LHP MacKenzie Gore vs. LHP Drew Smyly

Gore (4-7, 4.42 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.46 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 89 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K – in a rain-shortened appearance against the Cincinnati Reds on July 6
2 career starts vs. Cubs: 0-2, 7.00 ERA, 1.78 WHIP, 10 K in 9 IP

Smyly (7-6, 4.31 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.36 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 in 94 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 4 BB, 3 K against New York Yankees July 8
Last 5 starts vs. Nationals: 2-0, 3.04 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 20 K in 26 2/3 IP

Nationals at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:08 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Nationals +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Cubs -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-175) | Cubs -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Nationals 3

Moneyline

The Cubs are much better against left-handed pitchers than the Nats. Chicago is 16-11 against southpaws, and the Nats are just 11-24. Add in that Smyly has given up just 9 ER in 26 2/3 innings over his last 5 starts against Washington, and we have a heavy lean to Chicago.

Gore had his worst start of the year two starts back, his last start was cut short due to rain, and the All-Star break came after. So he has really only pitched 4 innings in 3 weeks.

Take the CUBS (-140).

Run line/Against the spread

Half of the last 10 games between the sides have been decided by 1 run. I don’t trust the Nats enough to pay -175 for them to keep it close, though.

So one prop that has some traction is Smyly’s K’s. He has only struck out 5 batters once in his last 8 starts and only did it once in his last 5 against the Nationals. I’ll take DREW SMYLY UNDER 4.5 K’S (-135).

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Over/Under

The Over is 4-6 in this matchup over the last 10 games. We haven’t seen 8 runs in a contest between these clubs this year or in their last 5 meetings overall. The only worry that I have is that Smyly has given up 14 ER in 11 1/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and Gore could be rusty from throwing 4 innings in 3 weeks. There also could be a light breeze blowing out at Wrigley.

I’m going to PASS.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-75) and Chicago Cubs (44-64) meet Tuesday at 8:05 p.m. ET for the middle contest of a 3-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Cubs lead 1-0

Washington was doubled up 6-3 in Monday’s series opener and has been outscored 51-20 while losing 6 straight games. The Nats are just 7-27 with a bloated 5.94 ERA in their last 34 games.

Chicago has played well at home lately. The Cubs own a 1.39 ERA and a 6-3 record over their last 9 games at Wrigley Field.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Paolo Espino vs. RHP Marcus Stroman

Espino (0-4, 4.20 ERA) has appeared in 30 games and made 10 starts. He owns a 1.27 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 through 70 2/3 IP.

Owns a 5.52 ERA and 1.43 WHIP as a starter vs. a 2.03 ERA and 1.01 WHIP as a relief pitcher.
Roughed up for 5 runs on 7 hits over 4 innings in his last start at the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday.

Stroman (3-5, 4.00 ERA) is making his 15th start of the season. He has registered a 1.14 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 through 74 1/3 IP.

Owns a 1.67 ERA and 1.00 WHIP since returning from the IL (shoulder) July 9.
Owns a 7.94 ERA and 1.50 WHIP at home albeit in the small sample size of 22 2/3 IP.

Nationals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:45 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +165 (bet $100 to win $165) | Cubs -205 (bet $205 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 5, Nationals 3

Money line

Over his recent stretch of success, Stroman has induced a lot more ground balls (51.6% last 30 days) while pounding the strike zone with first-pitch strikes. The Cubs’ righty has faced all top-end offensive clubs over his 5-game surge and he draws a Nationals foe Tuesday which is anything but.

The Cubs are playing well at home and have an edge in the starter matchup and bullpen are a decent play up to -195. Otherwise, STEER CLEAR.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Nats play in a below-average number of 1-run games.

BACK THE CUBS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

Both offenses have some growth potential in run scoring based on their quality of contact and support analytics. However, Tuesday’s weather report featuring an inbound breeze and the Stroman half of the starting mound equation work against that Over lean.

PASS.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (36-74) and Chicago Cubs (43-64) meet Monday at 8:05 p.m. ET to launch a 3-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; Cubs won 4 of 7 from the Nationals in 2021

The Nationals have struggled mightily of late. Washington has been outscored 45-17 in losing 5 straight games. The Nats are just 7-26 with a bloated 5.92 ERA in their last 33 games.

The Cubs got off to a good start in the 2nd half, but they head into this game coming off a 3-0 Sunday loss and a 2-6 mark in their last 8 games. Chicago has played well at home lately. The Cubs own a 2.77 ERA and an 11-9 record in their last 20 games at Wrigley.

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Nationals at Cubs projected starters

RHP Anibal Sanchez vs. RHP Keegan Thompson

Sanchez (0-4, 7.65 ERA) is making his 5th start after missing all of 2021 and the front half of this season with a neck injury. He has a 1.50 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 20 IP.

Owns a 3.18 ERA, 1.18 WHIP in 6 career starts at Wrigley Field
Has allowed a career home-runs-per-9 rate of 1.06, but early on has coughed up 2.70 HR/9 in 2022.

Thompson (8-5, 3.48 ERA) has a 1.27 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 93 IP in 22 games (14 as a starter).

Has appeared in 20 career games as a starter, posting a 4.54 ERA on an .810 OPS allowed. Has logged 34 games in relief, notching a 2.00 ERA on a .620 OPS.
Allowed 5 runs on 10 hits over 4 2/3 IP in his last start Tuesday at the St. Louis Cardinals).

Nationals at Cubs odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:04 p.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Cubs -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Nationals +1.5 (-130) | Cubs -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

Nationals at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Nationals 3

Money line

The Cubs (playing well at home, starter matchup, bullpen) are a lean, but look for a price of -185 or better.

Otherwise, STEER CLEAR.

Run line/Against the spread

Washington is 1-9 across its last 10 series openers. The 9 losses have been by a combined 49 runs. And overall, the Nats play in few 1-run games.

The run line play on the home 9 is worth half a unit. BACK THE CUBS -1.5 (+105).

Over/Under

A cooled-off inward breeze is tamping this total down, but the price on the OVER 7.5 (-120) is workable.

Both offenses have some growth potential in run scoring based on their quality of contact and support analytics.

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Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (50-55) and Washington Nationals (48-55) continue their three-game set at Nationals Park Saturday with the second game’s first pitch scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Cubs vs. Nationals odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Washington beat Chicago in the series opener Friday, 4-3, as Nationals starting RHP Paolo Espino allowed just 1 earned run over 5 1/3 innings of work and Washington’s bullpen held off the Cubs late-inning rally.

Season series: Cubs lead 3-2.

RHP Kyle Hendricks is Chicago’s projected starter. Hendricks is 12-4 with a 3.85 ERA (121 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 21 starts.

Last outing: No-decision with 4 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Chicago’s 6-5 victory over the Cincinnati Reds Monday.
2021 road splits: 6-1 with a 3.34 ERA (62 IP, 23 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 4.4 K/BB over 10 starts.

RHP Joe Ross makes his 18th start for the Nationals. Ross is 5-8 with a 3.80 ERA (92 1/3 IP, 39 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 this year.

Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in Washington’s 6-5 loss at the Philadelphia Phillies Monday.
Ross took a loss at the Cubs May 20 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 3 K in Washington’s 5-2 defeat.
2021 home splits: 2-4 with a 4.99 ERA (39 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.21 WHIP and 5.5 K/BB in seven starts.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Cubs at Nationals odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 2:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cubs +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Nationals -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cubs -1.5 (+165) | Nationals +1.5 (-200)
Over/Under: 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Prediction

Cubs 7, Nationals 4

Money line (ML)

Ehh, ya know? Saturday’s Cubs-Nationals game is akin to an NBA Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Detroit Pistons game in the middle of April. Both teams offloaded a ton of talent at the trade deadline and are in rebuild mode.

That being said, Hendricks is the differentiator in this matchup and provides value for the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS. Despite it being a lost year in Chicago, Hendricks is still a “top of the rotation” guy who figures to be part of the Cubs’ future.

Also, Ross has been awful at home and he has a .798 opponent’s OPS in Washington compared to a .624 opponent’s OPS on the road.

However, I’m sticking with the CUBS (+100) FIRST 5 INNINGS because Chicago traded away its three best bullpen arms at the trade deadline and the Cubs relievers have the fifth-worst FIP following the All-Star Break.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the CUBS -1.5 (+165) for a tiny wager because it’s a chunky payout, Hendricks is that much better than Ross and Washington’s bullpen is even worse than Chicago’s thus far in the second half.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the OVER 8 (-105) for 1 unit because there’s been a “sharp line move” towards the Over as the total opened at 7.5 before it was steamed up to the current number.

As alluded to before, Washington’s bullpen has the highest FIP and home run per nine-inning rate following the All-Star Break with the lowest left-on-base percentage.

The Nationals also parted ways with two of their best bullpen arms at the trade deadline in former closer Brad Hand and reliever Daniel Hudson.

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Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Washington Nationals at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Washington Nationals (17-22) and Chicago Cubs (21-21) meet for a Thursday matinee (2:20 p.m. ET) to close out a four-game series at Wrigley Field. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Nationals vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Joe Ross is the projected starting pitcher for the Nationals. Ross is 2-3 with a 5.80 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, and 4.3 BB/9 in 35 2/3 IP over 7 starts.

The Nats right-hander is looking to bounce back from a shaky four-frame outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks on Saturday (8 runs allowed on 8 hits and 3 walks).

RHP Trevor Williams is the projected starter for the Cubs. He is 2-2 with a 6.27 ERA, 1.82 WHIP, 10.1 K/9, and 4.9 BB/9 in 33 IP over 8 starts.

Like Ross, Williams is also looking to rebound from an iffy start in his last. He was pulled after 2 IP in Detroit on Saturday. He has allowed 11 runs in his last 8 2/3 IP. Albeit in a small dose, current Washington bats own a .996 OPS against Williams.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Nationals at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:35 a.m. ET.

Money line: Nationals +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Cubs -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Nationals +1.5 (-185) | Cubs -1.5 (+150)
Over/Under: 10 ( O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Nationals 5, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

The Cubs took the first two games of the series by scores of 7-3 and 6-3. Washington battled back with a 4-3 win on Wednesday.

The Nats offense has performed well on the road with a high-contact .729 OPS and overall has Statcast figures that tell the story of a team hitting the ball better than the production shows in the scoring column. The Cubs’ Statcast numbers swing the other way.

Add in a strength-of-schedule component that calls for a Chicago fade. BACK WASHINGTON (+105).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on a juice-drowned run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over has gotten some attention early with lesser starters on the bump and with a 12-mile-an-hour breeze out to left in the weather forecast.

But a bit more respect for the starters than what shows in surface stats, Chicago’s quality bullpen (and one that generates a lot of ground balls), and the state of Major League Baseball in 2021 make for some contrarian bent here.

TAKE the UNDER 10 (-105).

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