Tag: mwc rankings

Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind

Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of …

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind

Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of the DPI rankings.

It seems almost impossible that it’s already the holiday season, but here we are. There have been nearly two months of hoops already and the non-conference season is just about over.

And while we think we may have clarity now, league play is a horse of a different color. Teams that are on cloud nine right now may come crashing back to earth. Others that have been struggling might finally shake the demons free from their backs.

But as we inch ever closer to the official onset of the Mountain West season, let’s take one last look at how all the teams stack up with just a few buy-games left on the league’s non-conference docket.

As always, for a full rundown of how the Dieckhoff Power Index, or DPI, is calculated, head over to my site. And bear in mind, non-Division I games do not count toward the DPI, so all those games against Life Pacific and Portland Bible go out the window. These ratings are current through December 23.

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

http://www.dpihoops.net/sdsuwk8.png

The Aztecs had nearly two weeks off between their nailbiter against San Jose State and their next game versus Utah. Clearly, they used this time to reflect and improve. SDSU ran the Utes out of the building just days after the former Mountain West squad beat Kentucky. The defense continues to be the star of the show, but this team can score, too.

#2 — UTAH STATE

The Aggies have been dancing on the knife’s edge over the past few weeks, but they’ve come out on the other side mostly unscathed. In their past four games, Utah State has won in overtime, won by four points, won by two points in overtime, and won by three points. But margins notwithstandings, wins over Florida and South Florida solidified their at-large case.

#3 — NEW MEXICO

Oh, no. Things were going a little too well for the Lobos, weren’t they? After an impressive start, New Mexico announced over the weekend that starters Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell would be suspended indefinitely. Paul Weir was able to corral the rest of the team together and they won again over lowly Houston Baptist, but adversity has descended upon Albuquerque.

#4 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack are the prime candidate to take on third place in the league should the Lobos stumble during this tumultuous time. Their trio of is legitimately dangerous. They hung very tight with Saint Mary’s last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang a big win over SDSU or Utah State this season. They’ve still got a lot of room to grow, though.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

You just can’t get rid of these Rams! Though they aren’t making many waves on the national scale, give them credit for sticking around the top half of the league for this long. Nico Carvacho is Nico Carvacho, and Isaiah Stevens has been a revelation in Niko Medved’s backcourt. Fellow freshman David Roddy started his first game in CSU’s 111-104 triple OT win over Tulsa.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Boise State has given a pretty good indication of where they are right now with their performance so far, both on the season as a whole and in the Diamond Head Classic. The Broncos lost to a wayward Georgia Tech club and then pummeled an up-and-down Portland team. They got a crummy Christmas gift, drawing a good UTEP team in their final game in Hawai’i.

#7 — FRESNO STATE

Because the DPI doesn’t count non-D1 games, the Bulldogs sit at just 3-8—yet they’ve managed to stay in seventh place, thanks to a slightly above-average defense. It was another heartbreaker for Justin Hutson on Monday, with Fresno State falling to San Francisco by just two points. That’s the sixth time the Bulldogs have either lost by one possession or lost in overtime.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons continue to struggle during this disappointing year, following up a narrow win over Denver with a loss to Drake. The offense has been good, but they haven’t been able to stop opponents from scoring. They rank near the bottom of the nation both in their ability to make teams miss and in their proclivity toward forcing turnovers.

#9 — UNLV

A rocky start to the season got worse at the start of the month with the news that grad transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long would miss six to eight weeks with a thumb injury. The Rebels are 1-2 without him, with losses to BYU and Pacific buoyed only by a forgettable triumph over Robert Morris. Fans may already be counting down the days until David Jenkins debuts in Vegas.

#10 — WYOMING

More of the same from the Cowboys, as Hunter Maldonado continues to pile up mounds of individual statistics while the team flounders. They did snap a six-game skid, though. To be clear, that’s not a knock on Maldonado. He has developed into a fine player; there’s just not enough talent throughout the roster. But their defensive metrics indicate that they’re putting forth the effort.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE

Yeesh. The Spartans’ skid has extended to eight games after San Jose State fell to Santa Clara and UC Riverside last week. The shots just aren’t falling and they don’t take care of the ball. Seneca Knight is having a good year, but once again, the Spartans have separated themselves as the clear-cut lowest ranked team in the Mountain West.

That’s it for this week. Here’s wishing you all a safe and happy holiday from Mountain West Wire and the DPI.

But buckle up. Conference play starts next week.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings

Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire ‘Tis the season…for computer rankings Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone-and more …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings

Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

‘Tis the season…for computer rankings

Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone—and more importantly, with nearly 1,200 Division I games having been played—it’s time to start looking at how teams are stacking up against one another.

To do so, allow me to introduce my analytics system, the Dieckhoff Power Index—or DPI, for short.

The DPI assigns teams an overall rating out of 100 points, which will hopefully make it easy to digest for people who, like me, have little to no knowledge of advanced math.

Without getting into too long an explanation, the DPI is a mixture of:

  • offensive efficiency
  • defensive efficiency
  • statistical performance in the “four factors”: shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws.

A deeper explanation of the history and methodology behind the system can be found at the DPI website. The site has the full rankings for all 353 teams and will feature bracketology projections later in the season.

But for our purposes here at Mountain West Wire, all you really need to know is this: high scores are good and low scores are bad. These ratings paint a picture of how the eleven teams in the MWC match up on both sides of the ball, nationally and within the league.

Updated DPI rankings for the Mountain West will be posted here weekly throughout the season. I will also give some insights into each team and track their movement in the standings.

Without further ado, here are the first batch of rankings for the DPI on the heels of the holiday weekend. The grades and rankings are current through all games played on Monday, December 2.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

Utah State (#1 MW, #11 overall) — DPI GRADE: 86.50

  • Offense Grade: 88.9 (#1 MW, #11 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 83.9 (#2 MW, #19 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 86.7 (#2 MW, #45 overall)

Though it seems counter-intuitive with potential All-American Sam Merrill in the mix, Utah State’s weakest offensive trait so far has been its shooting. The defense has also struggled to force turnovers. But when the Aggies get Neemias Queta (knee) back, both of those marks should go up considerably. These issues are minor, though, as Utah State has been a top-20 team on either side of the ball. They’re still tops in the MW—for now.

Games this week: 12/4 @ San Jose State; 12/7 vs. Fresno State

San Diego StATE (#2 MW, #20 overall) — DPI GRADE: 84.95

  • Offense Grade: 80.9 (#2 MW, #61 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 85.8 (#1 MW, #8 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 88.1 (#1 MW, #32 overall)

Outside of Michigan, the Aztecs had probably the best weekend out of any team in the country. After garnering lukewarm NCAA Tournament consideration before the season, SDSU is already knocking on the door of the Top 25 polls after just four weeks. Their top-10 defense has been the key, with the Aztecs allowing the 17th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. They are charging hard for Utah State’s throne.

Games this week: 12/4 @ Colorado State; 12/8 vs. San Jose State

 

COLORADO STATE (#3 MW, #109 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 76.15

  • Offense Grade: 77.8 (#3 MW, #88 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.0 (#7 MW, #165 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.6 (#4 MW, #91 overall)

A bit of a shock here, as the Rams were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Colorado State has a couple regrettable losses already, but recent wins over Washington State and Loyola Chicago were encouraging. The team has shot the ball relatively well, but its secret to success so far has been getting to the free throw line. The Rams have already made more than 200 trips to the line, a top-10 mark nationally.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. San Diego State; 12/7 @ Boise State

NEW MEXICO (#4 MW, #110 overall) — DPI GRADE: 76.07

  • Offense Grade: 75.2 (#6 MW, #126 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 72.4 (#4 MW, #127 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 80.7 (#5 MW, #105 overall)

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Paul Weir’s new-look Lobos, but the results have been mostly positive. New Mexico would surely like to get that game to UTEP back, but their win over Wisconsin cancels out the loss to the Miners. The Lobos were above-average at mostly everything in November, but those numbers are boosted by some blowout victories. Early indications are that UNM will be closer to .500 than they will be to the NCAA Tournament.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Boise State; 12/7 vs. Wyoming

NEVADA (#5 MW, #120 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 75.63

  • Offense Grade: 75.6 (#5 MW, #120 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.5 (#5 MW, #159 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.8 (#3 MW, #89 overall)

There’s precious little daylight separating Teams 3 through 5 in the Mountain West right now, as the Rams hold just a half-point edge over the Wolf Pack. New head coach Steve Alford has already experienced some turbulence, as Nevada has lost to its three best opponents so far. But their shooting and turnover stats indicate that they should be a Top 100 team soon.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Santa Clara; 12/7 @ Air Force

Head to the page 2 for the back half of the standings.

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