DPI Rankings Week 6: Aztecs take over the #1 spot

Mountain West Basketball: Week 6 DPI Computer Rankings San Diego State takes over, Nevada takes a big step Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Aztecs the league’s new #1 after close call Earlier than ever, the Mountain West basketball season …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 6 DPI Computer Rankings


San Diego State takes over, Nevada takes a big step


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Aztecs the league’s new #1 after close call

Earlier than ever, the Mountain West basketball season has officially started. And just as quickly, it’s back on hold as teams gear up to finish their out-of-conference schedules.

But even if it was just one week, there was plenty of intrigue.

We had three total overtimes between the New Mexico-Boise State and UNLV-Fresno State games. We had a few teams finally wake up from their long hibernation, while others still looked very much asleep.

And then of course, we had Malachi Flynn coming up in the clutch and ensuring that the league stays represented in the national polls.

The coming week will be light duty for most of the teams around the Mountain West, but there are still a few games to keep an eye on, including two tussles with BYU and some dates with the Pac-12.

So, as we embark further down the road of the 2019-20 campaign, let’s stop and take a look where the Mountain West teams stand heading into Week 6. I’ve provided some graphics that will hopefully give some context for the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.

The rankings below reflect games played through Monday, December 9. For a rundown of how these rankings are calculated, head over to DPI Hoops. You can also find rankings for all 353 Division I teams.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

 

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

The Aztecs have taken over the top spot from Utah State, but they were just a few centimeters away from major disappointment on Sunday against San Jose State. Thankfully, Flynn’s last-second bomb found the bottom of the net and sent San Diego State to a perfect 10-0 record and a spot in the Top 25.

#2 — UTAH STATE

Even though they managed to win both of their games, the Aggies were ousted from the national polls on Monday while the Aztecs took their spot. Utah State could be on the brink of an absolute game-changer, though, with star big man Neemias Queta returning to action after a knee injury.

#3 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack had a fantastic week and are looking more and more like they could separate themselves from the logjam in the middle of the Mountain West and settle into the #3 spot behind Utah State and SDSU. Jalen Harris, in particular, has been playing out of his mind. Five straight for Nevada.

#4 — NEW MEXICO

It wasn’t always a sure thing, but the Lobos managed to jump out to an early 2-0 mark in the Mountain West. New Mexico survived a boxing match against Boise State that went to overtime before dispatching Wyoming with ease in Laramie. JaQuan Lyle looks to have found his home in ABQ.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

For now at least, the Rams continue to surprise by sitting atop the logjam of teams behind the league’s top four. Nico Carvacho continues to impress, but Colorado State went 0-for-2 on the week, losing to San Diego State and Boise State. Those same Broncos are hot on their tail.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Thankfully for Leon Rice, his star shooter Justinian Jessup has finally woken up from his long slumber. Derrick Alston Jr. and RJ Williams have done an admirable job holding up the load, but the Broncos need to be firing on all cylinders to catch up to the league’s top four teams.

#7 — WYOMING

The Cowboys remain relatively high in the polls, but they are starting to slide backward. Losses to Air Force and New Mexico this past week certainly didn’t do them any favors. Hunter Maldonado might be deserving of all-MWC honors down the line, but this team as a whole is lacking.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons’ defense has been one of the worst in the nation to start the year, but the offense has been quite good. Those traits were on full display this week, as Air Force allowed both Wyoming and Nevada to set season-high scoring marks while generating an 85.5 points per game of their own.

#9 — UNLV

It took two overtimes, but the Rebels opened their Mountain West season with a win over Fresno State. Unfortunately, they must have used up all of their good karma, because they got absolutely flattened by BYU in Salt Lake City. Turnovers continue to haunt T.J. Otzelberger’s club.

#10 — FRESNO STATE

It’s hard to imagine a more hard-luck team than Fresno State. (Actually, we’ll reconsider that in a moment.) The Bulldogs played three periods of extra time against UNLV and Utah State, but came away with nothing to show for it. Quickly approaching a nightmare scenario in Fresno.

#11 — SAN JOSE STATE

OK, so maybe the Spartans’ bad luck can compete with Fresno State’s. San Jose State hung with Utah State for twenty minutes before giving up the ghost. Then on Sunday, despite the efforts of leading scorer Seneca Knight, the Spartans came up infinitesimally short against SDSU.

That’s it for this week, folks! Check back next week for another round of Mountain West DPI rankings.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings

Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire ‘Tis the season…for computer rankings Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone-and more …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings


Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

‘Tis the season…for computer rankings

Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone—and more importantly, with nearly 1,200 Division I games having been played—it’s time to start looking at how teams are stacking up against one another.

To do so, allow me to introduce my analytics system, the Dieckhoff Power Index—or DPI, for short.

The DPI assigns teams an overall rating out of 100 points, which will hopefully make it easy to digest for people who, like me, have little to no knowledge of advanced math.

Without getting into too long an explanation, the DPI is a mixture of:

  • offensive efficiency
  • defensive efficiency
  • statistical performance in the “four factors”: shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws.

A deeper explanation of the history and methodology behind the system can be found at the DPI website. The site has the full rankings for all 353 teams and will feature bracketology projections later in the season.

But for our purposes here at Mountain West Wire, all you really need to know is this: high scores are good and low scores are bad. These ratings paint a picture of how the eleven teams in the MWC match up on both sides of the ball, nationally and within the league.

Updated DPI rankings for the Mountain West will be posted here weekly throughout the season. I will also give some insights into each team and track their movement in the standings.

Without further ado, here are the first batch of rankings for the DPI on the heels of the holiday weekend. The grades and rankings are current through all games played on Monday, December 2.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

Utah State (#1 MW, #11 overall) — DPI GRADE: 86.50

  • Offense Grade: 88.9 (#1 MW, #11 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 83.9 (#2 MW, #19 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 86.7 (#2 MW, #45 overall)

Though it seems counter-intuitive with potential All-American Sam Merrill in the mix, Utah State’s weakest offensive trait so far has been its shooting. The defense has also struggled to force turnovers. But when the Aggies get Neemias Queta (knee) back, both of those marks should go up considerably. These issues are minor, though, as Utah State has been a top-20 team on either side of the ball. They’re still tops in the MW—for now.

Games this week: 12/4 @ San Jose State; 12/7 vs. Fresno State

San Diego StATE (#2 MW, #20 overall) — DPI GRADE: 84.95

  • Offense Grade: 80.9 (#2 MW, #61 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 85.8 (#1 MW, #8 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 88.1 (#1 MW, #32 overall)

Outside of Michigan, the Aztecs had probably the best weekend out of any team in the country. After garnering lukewarm NCAA Tournament consideration before the season, SDSU is already knocking on the door of the Top 25 polls after just four weeks. Their top-10 defense has been the key, with the Aztecs allowing the 17th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. They are charging hard for Utah State’s throne.

Games this week: 12/4 @ Colorado State; 12/8 vs. San Jose State

 

COLORADO STATE (#3 MW, #109 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 76.15

  • Offense Grade: 77.8 (#3 MW, #88 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.0 (#7 MW, #165 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.6 (#4 MW, #91 overall)

A bit of a shock here, as the Rams were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Colorado State has a couple regrettable losses already, but recent wins over Washington State and Loyola Chicago were encouraging. The team has shot the ball relatively well, but its secret to success so far has been getting to the free throw line. The Rams have already made more than 200 trips to the line, a top-10 mark nationally.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. San Diego State; 12/7 @ Boise State

NEW MEXICO (#4 MW, #110 overall) — DPI GRADE: 76.07

  • Offense Grade: 75.2 (#6 MW, #126 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 72.4 (#4 MW, #127 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 80.7 (#5 MW, #105 overall)

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Paul Weir’s new-look Lobos, but the results have been mostly positive. New Mexico would surely like to get that game to UTEP back, but their win over Wisconsin cancels out the loss to the Miners. The Lobos were above-average at mostly everything in November, but those numbers are boosted by some blowout victories. Early indications are that UNM will be closer to .500 than they will be to the NCAA Tournament.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Boise State; 12/7 vs. Wyoming

NEVADA (#5 MW, #120 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 75.63

  • Offense Grade: 75.6 (#5 MW, #120 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.5 (#5 MW, #159 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.8 (#3 MW, #89 overall)

There’s precious little daylight separating Teams 3 through 5 in the Mountain West right now, as the Rams hold just a half-point edge over the Wolf Pack. New head coach Steve Alford has already experienced some turbulence, as Nevada has lost to its three best opponents so far. But their shooting and turnover stats indicate that they should be a Top 100 team soon.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Santa Clara; 12/7 @ Air Force

Head to the page 2 for the back half of the standings.

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