Boise State looking for fourth-straight win over struggling Wyoming

Mountain West play resumes as Boise State hosts Wyoming at ExtraMile Arena in Boise, Idaho, on Wednesday night.

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Boise State vs. Wyoming: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More


Broncos, Cowboys trending in different directions


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

This game could solidify both teams’ place in the Mountain West hierarchy

GAME DETAILS

WHO: Boise State (9-5, 1-1 MWC) vs. Wyoming (5-9, 0-2 WCC)

WHEN: Wednesday, January 1 — 6:00 P.M. MT / 5:00 P.M. PT

WHERE: ExtraMile Arena, Boise, ID

WATCH: Mountain West Network on Stadium

LISTEN: TuneIn

ALL-TIME: Boise State leads the series, 15-14

ODDS: Boise State -16, per KenPom

GAME NOTES

Mountain West play resumes for both teams in the New Year as the Broncos look to keep the celebration going into Wednesday night in Boise.

Leon Rice’s team has won three games in a row after losing to Georgia Tech in the opening round of the Diamond Head Classic in Hawaii last week. After dropping their game to the Yellow Jackets, Boise State responded with strong showings against Portland, UTEP, and Cal State Northridge.

One reason for their recent success is the debut of Abu Kigab, who transferred to Boise State after starting his career at Oregon. The junior was hled out of competition during the fall semester, but Kigab didn’t take long to make a big impact. He scored 33 points against CSUN in the team’s latest game. The outburst was especially encouraging for a team that was in need of a bit of size and scoring punch.

Boise State is in a good groove as conference play gets back underway, but their opponents haven’t had such a leisurely stroll over the past few games.

Wyoming has fallen to 5-9 and will almost assuredly spend the season fighting with San Jose State for 10th place in the Mountain West. The Cowboys have won two straight, although one of those wins came against Nebraska Wesleyan of Division III. Before a December 21 win over Denver, Wyoming had lost six in a row.

Their overtime victory against the Pioneers may have snapped the streak, but the Cowboys still look they are playing at a different level than the rest of their Mountain West peers.

And not in a good way.

This game could help solidify both the Broncos’ place in the top half of the league and Wyoming’s place in the cellar.

GAME PLAN

On THE BRONCOS’ POSSESSIONS…

The Broncos can attack teams in a number of ways, but they are at their best when they are raining threes down on their opponents. They’ve mostly thawed out of a cold spell that plagued that at the start of the season, and Justinian Jessup is always a threat to get hot from outside. Derrick Alston is the team’s primary scorer, though, and is good as anyone in the league at getting points from all over the court.

Boise State – and Jessup, in particular – takes very good care of the ball, and it is one of the reasons that Leon Rice has stuck with Marcus Dickinson in his backcourt, despite the senior’s limitations as a scorer.

In the frontcourt, RJ Williams has delivered an asbolutely fantastic performance on the season. Though he is relatively undersized at 6’7”, the senior has been one of the best rebounders in the country and has turned heads with his never-ending motor on the offensive end.

The Cowboys have certainly been better on the defensive end than they have been on offense, but that is a low bar to clear. Their best trait on defense has been their rebounding, but the Broncos should still be able to grab a few off the glass for some easy put-backs. And with Wyoming forcing turnovers at one of the lowest rates in America, expect Boise State to have plenty of opportunities to score against this pedestrian defense.

ON THE COWBOYS’ POSSESSIONS…

Well, it’s a pretty simple formula for Allen Edwards’ club: give the ball to Hunter Maldonado and let him work. And run out a lot of clock in the meantime. The Cowboys play one of the slowest tempos in the country, clocking in just outside of the bottom 10 nationally in possessions per game.

For his part, Maldonado has had no shortage of opportunities to advertise his offensive skills, racking up usage rates well over 30%. The offense moves – slowly – through the sophomore. Hunter Thompson and Jake Hendricks are the only other Wyoming players to have taken more than 100 shots on the year.

But while this dearth of shots can be mostly explained away by the slow pace and the Maldonado-centric offense, Wyoming has cost themselves a number of opportunities – and they almost never get second chances.

The Cowboys are slightly below average in terms of ball security, but the Broncos aren’t particularly opportunistic, so that won’t be as much of a liability as the team’s abysmal offensive rebounding will be. No team in the country has struggled on the glass more than Wyoming, and they won’t have an easy time against a tenacious Boise State club.

GAME PREDICTION

BOISE STATE 72, WYOMING 60

The Broncos should win this one going away, but if their hot shooters head into an early hibernation, they could find themselves in trouble. Alston, Jessup, and Maldonado could all put up video game numbers in this one, but with the way Wyoming plays, don’t expect the score to climb into the 80s.

Regardless of the final margin, Boise State should be moving to 2-1 in league play, while the Cowboys slip to 0-3.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind

Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of …

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Week 8 DPI Rankings: CSU hangs around, UNLV falls behind


Off-court turmoil could cause a shake-up in the top half


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Happy Holidays from Mountain West Wire! Enjoy the yuletide with this week’s installment of the DPI rankings.

It seems almost impossible that it’s already the holiday season, but here we are. There have been nearly two months of hoops already and the non-conference season is just about over.

And while we think we may have clarity now, league play is a horse of a different color. Teams that are on cloud nine right now may come crashing back to earth. Others that have been struggling might finally shake the demons free from their backs.

But as we inch ever closer to the official onset of the Mountain West season, let’s take one last look at how all the teams stack up with just a few buy-games left on the league’s non-conference docket.

As always, for a full rundown of how the Dieckhoff Power Index, or DPI, is calculated, head over to my site. And bear in mind, non-Division I games do not count toward the DPI, so all those games against Life Pacific and Portland Bible go out the window. These ratings are current through December 23.

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

http://www.dpihoops.net/sdsuwk8.png

The Aztecs had nearly two weeks off between their nailbiter against San Jose State and their next game versus Utah. Clearly, they used this time to reflect and improve. SDSU ran the Utes out of the building just days after the former Mountain West squad beat Kentucky. The defense continues to be the star of the show, but this team can score, too.

#2 — UTAH STATE

The Aggies have been dancing on the knife’s edge over the past few weeks, but they’ve come out on the other side mostly unscathed. In their past four games, Utah State has won in overtime, won by four points, won by two points in overtime, and won by three points. But margins notwithstandings, wins over Florida and South Florida solidified their at-large case.

#3 — NEW MEXICO

Oh, no. Things were going a little too well for the Lobos, weren’t they? After an impressive start, New Mexico announced over the weekend that starters Carlton Bragg and JJ Caldwell would be suspended indefinitely. Paul Weir was able to corral the rest of the team together and they won again over lowly Houston Baptist, but adversity has descended upon Albuquerque.

#4 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack are the prime candidate to take on third place in the league should the Lobos stumble during this tumultuous time. Their trio of is legitimately dangerous. They hung very tight with Saint Mary’s last week, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see them hang a big win over SDSU or Utah State this season. They’ve still got a lot of room to grow, though.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

You just can’t get rid of these Rams! Though they aren’t making many waves on the national scale, give them credit for sticking around the top half of the league for this long. Nico Carvacho is Nico Carvacho, and Isaiah Stevens has been a revelation in Niko Medved’s backcourt. Fellow freshman David Roddy started his first game in CSU’s 111-104 triple OT win over Tulsa.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Boise State has given a pretty good indication of where they are right now with their performance so far, both on the season as a whole and in the Diamond Head Classic. The Broncos lost to a wayward Georgia Tech club and then pummeled an up-and-down Portland team. They got a crummy Christmas gift, drawing a good UTEP team in their final game in Hawai’i.

#7 — FRESNO STATE

Because the DPI doesn’t count non-D1 games, the Bulldogs sit at just 3-8—yet they’ve managed to stay in seventh place, thanks to a slightly above-average defense. It was another heartbreaker for Justin Hutson on Monday, with Fresno State falling to San Francisco by just two points. That’s the sixth time the Bulldogs have either lost by one possession or lost in overtime.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons continue to struggle during this disappointing year, following up a narrow win over Denver with a loss to Drake. The offense has been good, but they haven’t been able to stop opponents from scoring. They rank near the bottom of the nation both in their ability to make teams miss and in their proclivity toward forcing turnovers.

#9 — UNLV

A rocky start to the season got worse at the start of the month with the news that grad transfer Elijah Mitrou-Long would miss six to eight weeks with a thumb injury. The Rebels are 1-2 without him, with losses to BYU and Pacific buoyed only by a forgettable triumph over Robert Morris. Fans may already be counting down the days until David Jenkins debuts in Vegas.

#10 — WYOMING

More of the same from the Cowboys, as Hunter Maldonado continues to pile up mounds of individual statistics while the team flounders. They did snap a six-game skid, though. To be clear, that’s not a knock on Maldonado. He has developed into a fine player; there’s just not enough talent throughout the roster. But their defensive metrics indicate that they’re putting forth the effort.

#11 — SAN JOSÉ STATE

Yeesh. The Spartans’ skid has extended to eight games after San Jose State fell to Santa Clara and UC Riverside last week. The shots just aren’t falling and they don’t take care of the ball. Seneca Knight is having a good year, but once again, the Spartans have separated themselves as the clear-cut lowest ranked team in the Mountain West.

That’s it for this week. Here’s wishing you all a safe and happy holiday from Mountain West Wire and the DPI.

But buckle up. Conference play starts next week.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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DPI Rankings Week 6: Aztecs take over the #1 spot

Mountain West Basketball: Week 6 DPI Computer Rankings San Diego State takes over, Nevada takes a big step Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Aztecs the league’s new #1 after close call Earlier than ever, the Mountain West basketball season …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 6 DPI Computer Rankings


San Diego State takes over, Nevada takes a big step


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Aztecs the league’s new #1 after close call

Earlier than ever, the Mountain West basketball season has officially started. And just as quickly, it’s back on hold as teams gear up to finish their out-of-conference schedules.

But even if it was just one week, there was plenty of intrigue.

We had three total overtimes between the New Mexico-Boise State and UNLV-Fresno State games. We had a few teams finally wake up from their long hibernation, while others still looked very much asleep.

And then of course, we had Malachi Flynn coming up in the clutch and ensuring that the league stays represented in the national polls.

The coming week will be light duty for most of the teams around the Mountain West, but there are still a few games to keep an eye on, including two tussles with BYU and some dates with the Pac-12.

So, as we embark further down the road of the 2019-20 campaign, let’s stop and take a look where the Mountain West teams stand heading into Week 6. I’ve provided some graphics that will hopefully give some context for the relative strengths and weaknesses of each team.

The rankings below reflect games played through Monday, December 9. For a rundown of how these rankings are calculated, head over to DPI Hoops. You can also find rankings for all 353 Division I teams.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

 

#1 — SAN DIEGO STATE

The Aztecs have taken over the top spot from Utah State, but they were just a few centimeters away from major disappointment on Sunday against San Jose State. Thankfully, Flynn’s last-second bomb found the bottom of the net and sent San Diego State to a perfect 10-0 record and a spot in the Top 25.

#2 — UTAH STATE

Even though they managed to win both of their games, the Aggies were ousted from the national polls on Monday while the Aztecs took their spot. Utah State could be on the brink of an absolute game-changer, though, with star big man Neemias Queta returning to action after a knee injury.

#3 — NEVADA

The Wolf Pack had a fantastic week and are looking more and more like they could separate themselves from the logjam in the middle of the Mountain West and settle into the #3 spot behind Utah State and SDSU. Jalen Harris, in particular, has been playing out of his mind. Five straight for Nevada.

#4 — NEW MEXICO

It wasn’t always a sure thing, but the Lobos managed to jump out to an early 2-0 mark in the Mountain West. New Mexico survived a boxing match against Boise State that went to overtime before dispatching Wyoming with ease in Laramie. JaQuan Lyle looks to have found his home in ABQ.

#5 — COLORADO STATE

For now at least, the Rams continue to surprise by sitting atop the logjam of teams behind the league’s top four. Nico Carvacho continues to impress, but Colorado State went 0-for-2 on the week, losing to San Diego State and Boise State. Those same Broncos are hot on their tail.

#6 — BOISE STATE

Thankfully for Leon Rice, his star shooter Justinian Jessup has finally woken up from his long slumber. Derrick Alston Jr. and RJ Williams have done an admirable job holding up the load, but the Broncos need to be firing on all cylinders to catch up to the league’s top four teams.

#7 — WYOMING

The Cowboys remain relatively high in the polls, but they are starting to slide backward. Losses to Air Force and New Mexico this past week certainly didn’t do them any favors. Hunter Maldonado might be deserving of all-MWC honors down the line, but this team as a whole is lacking.

#8 — AIR FORCE

The Falcons’ defense has been one of the worst in the nation to start the year, but the offense has been quite good. Those traits were on full display this week, as Air Force allowed both Wyoming and Nevada to set season-high scoring marks while generating an 85.5 points per game of their own.

#9 — UNLV

It took two overtimes, but the Rebels opened their Mountain West season with a win over Fresno State. Unfortunately, they must have used up all of their good karma, because they got absolutely flattened by BYU in Salt Lake City. Turnovers continue to haunt T.J. Otzelberger’s club.

#10 — FRESNO STATE

It’s hard to imagine a more hard-luck team than Fresno State. (Actually, we’ll reconsider that in a moment.) The Bulldogs played three periods of extra time against UNLV and Utah State, but came away with nothing to show for it. Quickly approaching a nightmare scenario in Fresno.

#11 — SAN JOSE STATE

OK, so maybe the Spartans’ bad luck can compete with Fresno State’s. San Jose State hung with Utah State for twenty minutes before giving up the ghost. Then on Sunday, despite the efforts of leading scorer Seneca Knight, the Spartans came up infinitesimally short against SDSU.

That’s it for this week, folks! Check back next week for another round of Mountain West DPI rankings.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings

Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire ‘Tis the season…for computer rankings Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone-and more …

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Mountain West Basketball: Week 5 DPI Computer Rankings


Aggies and Aztecs already separating themselves from the pack


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

‘Tis the season…for computer rankings

Now that Thanksgiving has come and gone—and more importantly, with nearly 1,200 Division I games having been played—it’s time to start looking at how teams are stacking up against one another.

To do so, allow me to introduce my analytics system, the Dieckhoff Power Index—or DPI, for short.

The DPI assigns teams an overall rating out of 100 points, which will hopefully make it easy to digest for people who, like me, have little to no knowledge of advanced math.

Without getting into too long an explanation, the DPI is a mixture of:

  • offensive efficiency
  • defensive efficiency
  • statistical performance in the “four factors”: shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounds, and free throws.

A deeper explanation of the history and methodology behind the system can be found at the DPI website. The site has the full rankings for all 353 teams and will feature bracketology projections later in the season.

But for our purposes here at Mountain West Wire, all you really need to know is this: high scores are good and low scores are bad. These ratings paint a picture of how the eleven teams in the MWC match up on both sides of the ball, nationally and within the league.

Updated DPI rankings for the Mountain West will be posted here weekly throughout the season. I will also give some insights into each team and track their movement in the standings.

Without further ado, here are the first batch of rankings for the DPI on the heels of the holiday weekend. The grades and rankings are current through all games played on Monday, December 2.

(Note: Games against non-Div. I opponents are not counted in the DPI.)

Utah State (#1 MW, #11 overall) — DPI GRADE: 86.50

  • Offense Grade: 88.9 (#1 MW, #11 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 83.9 (#2 MW, #19 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 86.7 (#2 MW, #45 overall)

Though it seems counter-intuitive with potential All-American Sam Merrill in the mix, Utah State’s weakest offensive trait so far has been its shooting. The defense has also struggled to force turnovers. But when the Aggies get Neemias Queta (knee) back, both of those marks should go up considerably. These issues are minor, though, as Utah State has been a top-20 team on either side of the ball. They’re still tops in the MW—for now.

Games this week: 12/4 @ San Jose State; 12/7 vs. Fresno State

San Diego StATE (#2 MW, #20 overall) — DPI GRADE: 84.95

  • Offense Grade: 80.9 (#2 MW, #61 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 85.8 (#1 MW, #8 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 88.1 (#1 MW, #32 overall)

Outside of Michigan, the Aztecs had probably the best weekend out of any team in the country. After garnering lukewarm NCAA Tournament consideration before the season, SDSU is already knocking on the door of the Top 25 polls after just four weeks. Their top-10 defense has been the key, with the Aztecs allowing the 17th-lowest effective field goal percentage in the country. They are charging hard for Utah State’s throne.

Games this week: 12/4 @ Colorado State; 12/8 vs. San Jose State

 

COLORADO STATE (#3 MW, #109 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 76.15

  • Offense Grade: 77.8 (#3 MW, #88 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.0 (#7 MW, #165 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.6 (#4 MW, #91 overall)

A bit of a shock here, as the Rams were picked to finish ninth in the preseason Mountain West poll. Colorado State has a couple regrettable losses already, but recent wins over Washington State and Loyola Chicago were encouraging. The team has shot the ball relatively well, but its secret to success so far has been getting to the free throw line. The Rams have already made more than 200 trips to the line, a top-10 mark nationally.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. San Diego State; 12/7 @ Boise State

NEW MEXICO (#4 MW, #110 overall) — DPI GRADE: 76.07

  • Offense Grade: 75.2 (#6 MW, #126 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 72.4 (#4 MW, #127 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 80.7 (#5 MW, #105 overall)

It’s been a mixed bag so far for Paul Weir’s new-look Lobos, but the results have been mostly positive. New Mexico would surely like to get that game to UTEP back, but their win over Wisconsin cancels out the loss to the Miners. The Lobos were above-average at mostly everything in November, but those numbers are boosted by some blowout victories. Early indications are that UNM will be closer to .500 than they will be to the NCAA Tournament.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Boise State; 12/7 vs. Wyoming

NEVADA (#5 MW, #120 OVERALL) — DPI GRADE: 75.63

  • Offense Grade: 75.6 (#5 MW, #120 overall)
  • Defense Grade: 69.5 (#5 MW, #159 overall)
  • 4-Factor Grade: 81.8 (#3 MW, #89 overall)

There’s precious little daylight separating Teams 3 through 5 in the Mountain West right now, as the Rams hold just a half-point edge over the Wolf Pack. New head coach Steve Alford has already experienced some turbulence, as Nevada has lost to its three best opponents so far. But their shooting and turnover stats indicate that they should be a Top 100 team soon.

Games this week: 12/4 vs. Santa Clara; 12/7 @ Air Force

Head to the page 2 for the back half of the standings.

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San Jose State at UCLA: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More

San Jose State at UCLA: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More Spartans looking to regain form against formidable foes Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire Prioleau has tinkered with his lineups, but can he find the right formula? …

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San Jose State at UCLA: Game Preview, TV, Radio, Live Stream, Odds, More


Spartans looking to regain form against formidable foes


Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

Prioleau has tinkered with his lineups, but can he find the right formula?

WHO: San Jose State (3-4, 0-0 MWC) at ULCA (5-3, 0-0 Pac-12)

WHEN: Sunday, December 1 — 5:00 P.M. PT / 6:00 P.M. MT

WHERE: Pauley Pavilion, Los Angeles, CA

WATCH: Pac-12 Network (cable subscription required); Get a free one-week trial of FuboTV.

LISTEN: TuneIn

ALL-TIME RECORD: UCLA leads the series, 8-1

ODDS: UCLA -17, per KenPom

PREVIEW: San Jose State will be looking for an upset victory on Sunday night as they travel down to Pauley Pavilion to do battle with UCLA.

The Spartans come into the game on the heels of two disappointing losses to Portland State and Oregon State. Things were looking up for Jean Prioleau’s team after beating Hofstra in the opener and snagging another early win over a Grambling State squad that could win the SWAC.

But the other shoe dropped hard, with SJSU losing their last two games by a combined 50 points.

This drop in production comes at an unideal time for a team that plays its next four games against UCLA, Utah State, San Diego State, and Stanford. In fact, the Bruins might be the easiest opponent of the Spartans’ upcoming slate.

The Bruins also find themselves in the midst of a slide. After starting the year at 4-0, UCLA has lost three of its last four. They picked up a cheap win over Chaminade, the host of the Maui Invitational, but otherwise dropped games against Hofstra, BYU, and Michigan State.

Mick Cronin’s side saw early success going inside to big man Jalen Hill, but the redshirt sophomore has gone quiet in the past two games. Hill scored in single digits against both the Cougars and the Spartans after a 24-point explosion against Hofstra.

Nobody else on the Bruins has consistently stepped up when Hill has struggled.

Prince Ali, Tyger Campbell, and Cody Riley are all capable options, but none of them appear to playing at a level to truly take over a game as the primary scorer. UCLA was able to skate through their first four games, but their lack of scoring punch outside of hill has exposed a weakness that other teams can and should exploit.

That means that the San Jose State frontcourt will have their work cut out for them on Sunday evening.

Prioleau ran out a new starting lineup for the first time against the Beavers on Wednesday, starting former Wake Forest big man Samuel Japhet-Mathias. The transfer center responded by scoring a team-leading 10 points. Omari Moore also started in place Seneca Knight but had little impact in just 15 minutes on the floor.

Knight and fellow double-digit scorer Richard Washington Jr. combined to shoot just 2-for-15 off the bench. They have been the Spartans’ leading scorers over the first handful of games, but were nowhere to be found in Las Vegas on Wednesday.

Shooting woes also followed Christian Anigwe, who shot 1-for-8 against Oregon State. The sophomore forward did secure 14 rebounds and block three shots, though.

But those issues are just about the shots they actually get off. Nearly a quarter of the Spartans’ possessions never make it that far, instead ending in a turnover. To put that in context, San Jose State ranks 308th in turnover rate, per KenPom.

There’s a lot that Jean Prioleau needs to get cleaned up if SJSU stands a chance at UCLA. But on the bright side for the Spartans, they’re catching the Bruins on a cold streak.

Prediction: UCLA 81, San Jose State 63

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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