NCAA Bracketology: Is San Diego State Still a #1 Seed?

San Diego State fell from the ranks of the unbeaten over the weekend, but did they also lose their spot as a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament?

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NCAA Bracketology: Is San Diego State Still a #1 Seed?

Comparing the Aztecs’ resume to other top teams

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

SDSU has just one loss, but did they just lose their spot on the one line?

For months, as San Diego State’s unbeaten streak grew and grew, the Aztecs became more comfortable with the idea of being a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

But after Saturday’s loss to UNLV, Brian Dutcher’s club has fallen from the annals of history—but perhaps not from the top line. With the top six teams having separated themselves to this point of the season, and with four of those teams losing last week, the debate surrounding the top seeds is growing to a fever pitch.

In order to determine whether the Aztecs should retain their place on the one-line, let’s take a gander at how they stack up against the other teams in the conversation. But any investigation of a team’s case starts with their own resume.

San Diego State

San Diego State still has the fewest losses in the country after Gonzaga and Baylor also incurred defeats over the weekend. They have 25 wins against Division I opponents, including a perfect 9-0 record in games falling in the NCAA’s Quadrants 1 and 2.

The Aztecs also went 4-0 against their Quadrant 1 opponents—even more impressively, all four of those games were played away from Viejas Arena.

Their opening week win over BYU has aged beautifully, as has a Thanksgiving break romp over Creighton and Iowa in which San Diego State won both games by a combined 41 points. A January win in Logan over Utah State was the only truly valuable win for the Aztecs in league play.

As of Monday night, San Diego State was ranked in the top ten of every major advanced metric except the Kevin Pauga Index, which primarily rewards teams that play difficult schedules.

That brings up the question of the Aztecs’ schedule.

Their season-long strength of schedule is rated outside of the top 100 nationally. Before blaming that on their playing in a middling Mountain West conference, note that San Diego State’s non-conference SOS is also outside the top 100.

This aspect of San Diego State’s resume is their weakest, but it’s still a very strong profile. The real question is: how does it stack up against the other teams in the mix for a top spot?

The Competition

For ease of argument, let’s say that Kansas and Baylor have locked in two of the #1 seeds already. Each of those teams boasts ten-plus wins in Quadrant 1. They are ranked 1-2 in five of six metrics, with only the BPI ranking the Bears outside of the top two.

They’re pretty much locked in at this point, barring some unforeseen disaster.

But after the Big 12’s big two, the conversation opens up quite a bit.

Currently, the main competitors facing off with the Aztecs for those last two spots on the top seed line are Gonzaga, Duke, and Dayton. Others such as Maryland, Florida State, and Creighton might still have an outside shot at getting a top seed, but they are all currently on a tier just below the top six.

For now, we’ll focus on the three teams bunched most closely with San Diego State, starting with the team that is geographically closest to them.

Gonzaga

Of the quartet, Gonzaga likely has the strongest case to get a #1 seed. The Bulldogs are 27-2 and their only losses have come against NCAA tournament locks BYU and Michigan. While it may be tempting to compare the Zags’ loss to BYU against San Diego State’s win over the Cougars, bear in mind that star big man Yoeli Childs was not in action against the Aztecs. (Also, Gonzaga crushed the Cougars in the first matchup, winning 92-69 in Spokane. That seems important.)

Gonzaga has the edge in the analytics over San Diego State, rating higher in every major metric except for KPI, where the Zags are one spot behind the Aztecs at #15. So, that’s a check in the win column for the Bulldogs.

But while the computers may prefer Gonzaga, their best wins are no better than SDSU’s. They both have wins over BYU, and while the Zags also have wins away from home over Oregon, Arizona, and Saint Mary’s, the Aztecs’ wins over Creighton, Iowa, and Utah State are just as good or better.

The similarities between Gonzaga and San Diego State don’t stop there.

The average NET ranking of San Diego State’s triumphs is 158, the second-worst number among the handful of teams vying for a #1 seed. Only Gonzaga’s average NET win is worse, at 163.

It’s hard to tease the two teams apart. Their respective resumes have similar strengths and weaknesses, so any argument against one team can likely be used against the other. For the moment, though, Gonzaga’s edge in the computer rankings likely has them ahead of the Aztecs by a nose.

Dayton

Dayton is also in that neighborhood, with their average NET win coming in at 140. The Flyers have played a tougher schedule than either the Aztecs or Zags, but they lack a true marquee victory. There were chances for glory, most notably in neutral-site games against Kansas and Colorado, but Dayton fell to both in overtime.

Their best wins have come against some of the country’s best mid-major programs, including Saint Mary’s, Rhode Island, Richmond, VCU, and Saint Louis. They also scored wins over top 100 programs in Virginia Tech and Georgia.

But while Dayton’s wins might not jump off the page, the Flyers do perform well in the computer rankings. As of Monday night, they were ranked in the top four of both the KPI (#3) and the NET (#4). That’s higher than San Diego State ranks in any metric, although it does bear mentioning that the Aztecs do better than Dayton in predictive ratings such as KenPom, Sagarin, and BPI.

Led by potential Naismith winner Obi Toppin, the Flyers are very fun to watch. But without a signature win to hang their hat on, it’s hard to see them surpassing Gonzaga or San Diego State in the race for a #1 seed—especially with the rest of the Atlantic 10 faltering down the stretch. No matter who Dayton draws in the A-10 Tournament, they won’t get another opponent that compares to the top wins of the top six.

Duke

That just leaves Duke. Do the Blue Devils have what it takes to steal a spot on the top line?

Mike Krzyzsewski has another winner on his hands in Durham, with Duke currently sitting at 23-4 on the season. The Blue Devils have one of the best wins available this season, and they got it on opening night when they beat Kansas during the Champions Classic in Indianapolis. Only Baylor’s victory over the Jayhawks in Lawrence is better, on paper.

Duke also holds a home victory over Florida State and a road win against Michigan State. Their trio of top wins outclasses San Diego State’s grouping of Creighton, BYU, and Iowa. Still, like the Aztecs, the Blue Devils have just four Quadrant 1 wins.

Duke also joins SDSU as the only teams in the top six that have a Q3 loss.

The Blue Devils’ much-maligned home loss to Stephen F. Austin has actually aged quite gracefully, moving from Quadrant 4 to being a borderline Quadrant 2 game. While the Lumberjacks would still need to climb at least dozen spots in NET rankings to move this game up to Q2, they are currently about 25 spots higher in the NET than UNLV is.

Coach K also has the advantage in the analytics, with his team averaging out to be a top 5 team across the six major metrics. They are currently #1 in the BPI, and their lowest ranking is a #9 placement in ESPN’s Strength of Resume measurement. They are also in the top four of both the KenPom and KPI rankings.

The differences between the teams are quite slim. One of the main distinguishing factors that plays in San Diego State’s favor is that, while the Aztecs are undefeated against top competition, Duke has three losses in Quadrant 1. They have had more opportunities for such games, but the road losses to NC State and Clemson might be an anchor that keeps Duke from rising to the top.

That said, the ACC Tournament could provide the Blue Devils with plenty of opportunities for high-quality wins, so winning out could earn them a #1 bid. It remains to be seen which of the western teams they would push out—Gonzaga or San Diego State?

The Verdict

In view of the explanations above, here is how the selection committee might currently view the top six teams:

Kansas
Baylor
Gonzaga
San Diego State
Duke
Dayton

As of right now, as long as San Diego State wins out and takes home the MWC Tournament title, they should hold on to the #1 seed that they earned with their incredible start to the season. The same can be said for Gonzaga. Those teams are the front-runners for the final two spots on the top line right now. The Bulldogs’ edge in the computer rankings likely has them sitting ahead of SDSU at the moment.

The biggest threat to the Aztecs’ top seeding, then, will be Duke. The Blue Devils could possibly surpass SDSU (and/or Gonzaga) if they win the ACC Tournament and score wins over Louisville and Florida State in the process. Dayton is also still in the conversation thanks to a great record, good metrics, and one of the most electrifying players in the country.

But for San Diego State, the mandate to earn a #1 seed is clear: win and you’re in.

Andrew is a current USBWA member, covering college basketball for multiple outlets, including Mountain West Wire of the USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Busting Brackets of the FanSided Network. He also runs the Dieckhoff Power Index, a college basketball analytics system, and provides bracketology predictions throughout the season.

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Utah State Leads The Race for #2 Seed in MW Tournament

The Mountain West title has already been won, but a battle is brewing for 2nd place – and a spot on the other side of the bracket from SDSU.

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Utah State Leads Six Teams Vying for #2 Seed in MW Tourney

Aggies have the inside track, but any slip-ups could cause chaos

Contact/Follow @andrewdieckhoff & @MWCwire

SDSU has already clinched the top spot, but how will things play out beneath them?

With the Mountain West regular season title already locked up by San Diego State—and with the Aztecs focusing on bigger things, like a potential #1 seed and a chance to cut down the nets in Atlanta—the major storyline in the league has shifted to who will finish in second place.

Currently, there are five teams leading the fight for the Mountain West’s silver medal: Utah State, Colorado State, Nevada, Boise State, and UNLV. The Aggies currently hold a half-game edge over the Rams and Wolf Pack, with the Broncos a full game back. UNLV is in sixth place, but their 8-6 record is only one and half games off Utah State’s pace.

Why is the race for second place so important?

Because with undefeated San Diego State on the other side of the bracket, the teams that finish in second and third will have a few extra games before they have to play the Aztecs. The teams that earn the #4 and #5 seed will face the difficult task of playing an above-average team in their first game and SDSU in the next.

With just two weeks remaining in the regular season, each game holds massive sway over seeding for the Mountain West Tournament. To give you an idea of just how contentious these next few weeks will be, take a look at some of the big matchups remaining on the schedule:

2/18 – Nevada @ New Mexico
2/18 – Colorado State @ UNLV
2/22 – UNLV @ San Diego State
2/23 – New Mexico @ Boise State
2/25 – Colorado State @ San Diego State
2/26 – Boise State @ UNLV
2/29 – San Diego State @ Nevada
2/29 – Utah State @ New Mexico

With so many important games remaining, there are myriad scenarios of how the standings will look on March 1. Here’s a quick investigation into how each team can find their way to second place in the Mountain West.

NEW MEXICO (17-10, 6-8 MW)

Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Nevada, 2/23 @ Boise State, 2/26 @ Air Force, 2/29 vs. Utah State

Yes, that’s right. The Lobos are still in it.

New Mexico is currently in seventh place and below .500 in league play, but they have just enough rope that if everything goes right—and it really is almost everything—they could end up finishing in second place.

Here’s how: Wyoming would need to beat Utah State and Nevada. San Jose State would need to beat Colorado State, Utah State, and UNLV. Air Force would need to beat the Rams in Fort Collins. If all of that happens, and New Mexico takes care of its own business against the Wolf Pack, Broncos, and Falcons, it would set up a spectacular season finale in The Pit.

If the Lobos could win that game, then New Mexico, Utah State, Nevada, Boise State, and Colorado State would all finish with a league record of 10-8. Tiebreaking procedures dictate that the team with the best record against these opponents will receive the highest seed. The Lobos and Aggies would move into a two-way tiebreaker by virtue each having gone 4-2 against these opponents.

The tiebreaker then moves to head-to-head record, which would give New Mexico the advantage—the final game of the season would be the only regular-season meeting of the two teams.

There is virtually no chance that all of that would happen. But the mere fact that it is even still a possibility is amazing, considering how quickly the Lobos have fallen off the map after their 15-3 start to the season.

UNLV (13-14, 8-6 MW)

Remaining Schedule: 2/18 vs. Colorado State, 2/22 @ San Diego State, 2/26 vs. Boise State, 2/29 @ San Jose State

It would still take some major chaos in the Mountain West for the Rebels to finish in second place, but it’s not as far-fetched as New Mexico’s bid. UNLV has plenty of roads into second place—even without a win over San Diego State.

Like New Mexico, the Rebels would really need Utah State to fall apart down the stretch, with the other three teams currently ahead of them stumbling as well. But UNLV could lose to the Aztecs and still finish 11-7. A handful of scenarios could see the Rebels sitting clear of everyone else in the #2 position.

Interestingly, if the Rebels can’t land in the #2 or #3 spot, they may actually have better luck down as the #6 or #7 team. They could stay away from San Diego State and will still have the benefit of playing at home for the Mountain West Tournament.

These scenarios are much, much more likely than the Rebels finishing second. But even more likely is that one of the next four teams will take home the silver. [CONTINUED]

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Miraculous comeback by Boise State sinks Aggies’ at-large hopes

RayJ Dennis scored all of his career-high 19 points in the final 3:23 of regulation as Boise State fought back from a late 19-point deficit.

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Game Recap: Boise St. 88, Utah St. 83 (OT)

Broncos erase 19-point deficit in stunning fashion

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High drama in Boise means high stress for Utah State

It seemed for all the world that Utah State was moving past its early struggles in the Mountain West, leading comfortably in Boise with just a few minutes to play.

But a late Boise State surge propelled the Broncos to one of the most unlikely wins of the season in college basketball, the home team escaping with an 88-83 overtime win in ExtraMile Arena.

Freshman guard RayJ Dennis led the comeback charge for Boise State, scoring all of his career-high 19 points in the final three-plus minutes of regulation. Dennis shot 5-for-5, including four three-pointers. He was also a perfect 5-for-5 at the free throw stripe.

It was one of the most electrifying individual performances of the season—not just in the MW, but in the nation—and it came from one of the most unassuming players on the court.

This win wasn’t just unlikely—it was all but impossible.

According to Ken Pomeroy, the win probability for Utah State (14-6, 3-4 MW) peaked at 98.8% after Justin Bean’s free throws put them up 18 points with 4:10 remaining. The Broncos’ 0.2% shot at victory was about as slim as it gets.

But on some nights, college basketball simply refuses to be penned in by such limits.

Utah State’s collapse spoiled a season-high scoring night from its star player, Sam Merrill, who finished with 30 points on the night. Bean had a double-double with 18 points and 10 rebounds, and Neemias Queta added 12 points before fouling out, but those performances weren’t enough to stave off the Broncos’ late push.

The gut-wrenching loss may be the final straw that breaks the back—and heart—of the Aggies.

With just over six minutes to play in regulation, Queta hit two free throws to give the Aggies a 62-43 lead over Boise State, matching the Aggies’ largest lead of the game at 19 points. Over the next two minutes, the Broncos only managed to chisel one point off of that deficit, with Utah State leading 66-48 with four minutes to play.

Then it happened.

RJ Williams drew a foul on Queta, the fifth of the game for the Portuguese sophomore. Over its next few possessions, Utah State alternated between missed shots and turnovers, resulting in a 14-0 run for Boise State that cut the Aggie lead to four points with one minute remaining.

After two Abel Porter free throws with eight seconds to play, Utah State held a 75-70 lead and looked like they would be able to survive Boise State’s big haymaker.

But Dennis came down and capped off his out-of-the-blue explosion, nailing a three-pointer with four seconds remaining.

Boise State’s comeback hinged on forcing one last turnover.

Justinian Jessup didn’t disappoint.

The senior sharpshooter was able to intercept Diogo Brito’s inbounds pass, and he quickly layed the the ball in with 1.3 seconds on the clock, tying the game at 75.

The two teams would take that scoreline with them into overtime. With the wind fully at their backs, Boise State drew first blood in the extra period—and never gave the lead back.

Jessup and Williams both finished in double figures for the Broncos, with Derrick Alston also chipping in 19 to tie Dennis for the team-high in scoring.

The win moves Boise State (12-6, 4-4 MW) to .500 in league play—something Utah State can no longer claim. The Broncos have had issues with depth at times this year, but the big plays out of RayJ Dennis and Max Rice down the stretch is a sign of growth for Leon Rice’s bench.

It’s a step in the right direction for a Broncos team coming off two straight losses to San Diego State and Air Force. Consistency hasn’t been this team’s strong suit this season, but any indications of progress are encouraging. If nothing else, it seems unlikely that Boise State will repeat its dismal showing in the Mountain West after last season’s mess.

For the Aggies, the loss not only hands them a losing record in conference play—it might have completely dashed any remaining hopes that Utah State had to get an at-large bid in the upcoming NCAA Tournament.

Craig Smith’s team came into the season with massive expectations, but the Aggies have fallen well short of them. Utah State was pegged to win the league going away, with San Diego State a distant second in the league. Questions lingered about how the team would fare with Queta on the mend from a summer knee injury, but a 7-0 start to the season for the Aggies quelled those fears.

But since Thanksgiving, that narrative has been completely flipped on its head, with Utah State going just 7-6 in games since their holiday trip to Montego Bay for the Jamaica Classic. And things are getting worse in 2020, with the Aggies having won just one game in five tries so far in the new year. Those games include losses to Air Force and UNLV.

Even on the road, those were games the Aggies were supposed to win.

At this point, preseason projections have to be thrown out. Though it’s not entirely clear what is wrong with the Aggies, they are nowhere near where the prognosticators—myself included—thought they would be.

The Aztecs, meanwhile, are still standing as the last undefeated team in the nation.

Utah State does hold wins over LSU and Florida, but those victories won’t be enough to buoy the Aggies’ chances at getting an at-large bid. At this point, they may need to run the table the rest of the way to have a shot at one. Failing that, Utah State’s only way forward will likely be through the Mountain West Tournament.

They will have plenty of competition there, though, with San Diego State having already all but locked up their ticket to the Big Dance. No other team in the league can make such a claim, so the stakes will be enormous at the Thomas & Mack Center in March.

Let’s hope that all of those games can be exciting as this one was.

UP NEXT

Boise State: The Broncos will have something of a light week compared to their recent forays against SDSU, Air Force, and Utah State. On Saturday, Boise State hosts Fresno State (6-12, 2-5 MW), who has struggled to the tune of a 2-5 start in league play. The Bulldogs have weapons, though. Leon Rice would do well to remind his team not to rest on their laurels, especially with no midweek game to keep them sharp.

Utah State: The Aggies will look to right the ship at home against Air Force (9-10, 3-4 MW). Remember: this team beat the Aggies by 19 points just two weeks ago. The Falcons’ offense has been impressive behind the play of Ryan Swan and Lavelle Scottie, but Dave Pilipovich has yet to field a consistent winner on the year. Utah State will also host San Jose State (6-13, 2-5 MW) next Saturday.

It’s not a stretch to say that these are must-win games for Utah State if they are to have any hope at getting into the NCAA Tournament through the front door.

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