The Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning play Game 5 of the 2021 Stanley Cup Final Wednesday. Puck drop is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET at Amalie Arena. Below, we analyze the Canadiens vs. Lightning Stanley Cup Final Game 5 odds and lines, with NHL picks and predictions.
There was some worry the Canadiens and Lightning might be delayed traveling back from Montreal to Tampa due to Hurricane Elsa, now a tropical storm. The storm should be well out of the area by the time the puck drops.
The Canadiens staved off elimination with an overtime win in Game 4 on home ice Monday, but playing at Amalie Arena is a different animal.
The Lightning had a golden opportunity heading into OT in Game 4 on a double-minor high-sticking call to Canadiens D Shea Weber. Lightning RW Nikita Kucherov misfired on an open net to the left of G Carey Price, and the Habs were able to kill the penalty and then get a winner from RW Josh Anderson a few moments later.
Canadiens at Lightning: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:05 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Canadiens +190 (bet $100 to win $190) | Lightning -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread/ATS: Canadiens +1.5 (-145) | Lightning -1.5 (+120)
- Over/Under: 5 (O: -135 | U: +110)
Canadiens at Lightning: Projected starting goalies
Carey Price (12-7-5, 2.64 GAA, .901 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Andrei Vasilevskiy (31-10-1, 2.21 GAA, .925 SV%, 5 SO). Stats from regular season.
Price easily had his best outing of the series in Game 4, by turning aside 32 of the 34 shots he faced, and he received a little help from the goalie’s best friend, the crossbar.
Vasilevskiy wasn’t terrible in Game 4, but he wasn’t amazing, either, while allowing 3 goals on 21 shots. He and his Tampa Bay teammates now get an opportunity to win the Cup on home ice.
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Canadiens at Lightning: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Lightning 3, Canadiens 1
Money line (ML)
The Lightning (-250) will cost you two and a half times your potential return, and while I believe they get it done Wednesday, that’s too heavy of a risk.
AVOID, and look to the puck line instead.
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Against the spread (ATS)
The LIGHTNING -1.5 (+120) are a much better play on the puck line, although it won’t be easy.
In fact, I expect that it will require an empty-net goal to salt this game away, and then the celebration will kick off in Tampa, which is quickly becoming the new Titletown U.S.A.
Over/Under (O/U)
UNDER 5 (+110) is the play here. I think Price will continue his outstanding play, holding the Lightning down, and Vasilevskiy will be hungry after losing Game 4. The scoring chances will be fewer and further between, which is commonly the case as a series goes longer and longer.
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