Tag: MLB moneyline against the spread ATS Over Under OU total run line

ALCS Game 3: New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians meet in Game 3 of their best-of-7 ALCS Thursday at Progressive Field. First pitch is scheduled for 5:08 p.m. ET (TBS / truTV / Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

ALCS: Yankees lead 2-0; Yankees won regular-season series 4-2

The Yankees doubled up the Guardians 6-3 in Game 2 Tuesday, cashing as a moderate favorite (-159) with the Over (7) cashing behind Yankees SP Gerrit Cole (4 1/3 IP, 2 ER) and 4 relievers (4 2/3 IP, 1 ER). New York led wire to wire, with CF Aaron Judge swatting a 2-run HR and finishing with 3 RBIs.

While New York was just 2-for-10 with runners in scoring position in Game 2, Cleveland went 0-for-7 RISP.

The Guardians received a solo HR from 3B Jose Ramirez in the top of the 9th, but he is just still 4-for-24 (.167) with a 2B, 2 solo HRs, 2 RBIs, 4 runs and an SB in 7 postseason games.

Yankees at Guardians projected starters

RHP Clarke Schmidt vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Schmidt (5-5, 2.85 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.18 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.8 K/9 in 85 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 3-2 win at Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the ALDS Oct. 9 — only 2024 postseason appearance
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 3-3, 1.39 ERA (45 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 17 BB, 46 K, .211 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 8 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 1-0, 3.52 ERA (15 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.89 WHIP, 10.6 K/9 in 3 starts (4 appearances)
  • 2024 vs. Guardians (regular season): 1 start, win, 5 IP, 1 ER (2 R), 3 H, 5 BB, 7 K in 3-2 road victory April 13
  • Career postseason: 0-2, 6.43 ERA (7 IP, 5 ER), 1.71 WHIP in 1 start and 3 relief appearances

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 7-3 home victory in Game 5 of the ALDS vs. Detroit Tigers Saturday
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 1-1, 2.25 ERA (20 IP, 5 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 4 BB, 23 K in 4 starts
  • 2024 vs. Yankees (regular season): 1 start, no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H (2 HR), 4 BB, 2 K in 9-5 road win in 12 innings Aug. 20
  • 2024 postseason: 0-0, 0.00 ERA , 6 2/3 IP, 3 BB, 10 K, 1.20 WHIP in 2 starts

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Yankees at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:01 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Yankees -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Guardians -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+150) | Guardians +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -125 | U: +105)

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Yankees at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Guardians 3, Yankees 2

Moneyline

The GUARDIANS (-105) are worth playing lightly in Game 3 as the home ‘dog as they look to keep their season alive.

Yes, they wouldn’t be eliminated with a loss, but going into a 3-0 hole in a series against the powerful Yankees is basically a death knell.

Cleveland catches a slight break against Schmidt, certainly not the strongest starter in the New York pitching arsenal, and the Yankees were just 21-23 in the regular season vs. left-handers.

Run line/Against the spread

The Guardians +1.5 (-185) will set you back nearly 2 times the potential return. That’s too much risk and not enough reward.

Cleveland should play with some urgency returning home after falling into a 2-0 hole. If you like the Guardians, just play them straight up — on the moneyline.

PASS on the spread.

Over/Under

UNDER 7 (+105) is a solid value at plus-money in Game 3.

We should see a decent pitching performance from the home team as the Yankees struggled against southpaws. Of course, Boyd didn’t go terribly deep into 2 starts for manager Stephen Vogt in the ALDS.

The Over is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games for Cleveland, but just 3-2-2 in 7 postseason games. New York has cashed Unders at a 3-2-1 pace in 6 playoff outings.

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NLCS Game 3: LA Dodgers at New York Mets odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s LA Dodgers at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The LA Dodgers and New York Mets play Game 3 of their best-of-7 NLCS Wednesday. First pitch from Citi Field is set for 8:08 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Dodgers vs. Mets odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Tied 1-1

New York won 7-3 in Los Angeles on Monday to tie the series while covering as a +140 road underdog. SS Francisco Lindor opened up the scoring with a solo HR in the top of the 1st and the Mets made it 6-0 before the end of the 2nd when 3B Mark Vientos hit a grand slam.

The Dodgers run of 3 straight shutouts and record-tying 33 consecutive scoreless innings in the playoffs ended on Lindor’s HR. LA was doubled-up in hits (10-5) and home runs (2-1) and trailed 18-8 in total bases.

Dodgers at Mets projected starters

RHP Walker Buehler vs. RHP Luis Severino

Buehler (1-6, 5.38 ERA) made 16 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.55 WHIP, 3.4 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 75 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 6 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 0 K in a 6-5 loss Tuesday at San Diego Padres in Game 3 of the ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 0-1, 10.80 ERA, 1.60 WHIP in 5 IP
  • Career vs. Mets: 1-1, 5.00 ERA (27 IP, 15 ER), 24 H, 8 BB, 28 K in 5 starts

Severino (11-7, 3.91 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.24 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 in 182 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 7 K in a 7-6 loss at Philadelphia Phillies on Oct. 6 in Game 2 of the ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 4.50 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 12 IP
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 0-1, 10.50 ERA (6 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 2 appearances (1 start)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Dodgers at Mets odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 12:27 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Dodgers -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Dodgers -1.5 (+155) | Mets +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Dodgers at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Dodgers 5

Moneyline

LEAN METS (-110).

New York has won both of its home games this postseason and is 3-1 in its last 4 playoff games. But this is only a lean because the Dodgers were the better team this season and because LA has won its last 3 games vs. the Mets in New York.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Mets will cover here as +1.5 (-190) underdogs, but they are not worth the risk. I advise passing on this bet and playing the ML and/or total instead, but if you are comfortable playing the spread here then you can divvy up units between the run line and ML.

Over/Under

BET OVER 7.5 (-115).

The Over has hit in each of the 1st 2 games this series and is 5-1 in New York’s last 5 games this postseason, also being 7-2 in all of its 9 games this playoffs. For LA, the Over is 5-1-1 in its 7 games during the postseason.

The Over has also hit in each of the last 3 NY-LA matchups.

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ALCS Game 2: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees play Game 2 of the best-of-7 ALCS Tuesday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Yankees lead 1-0 | Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2

The Yankees won the Monday opener 5-2 as -161 home favorites while the total (7) pushed. RF Juan Soto and DH Giancarlo Stanton each homered, and SP Carlos Rodón allowed 1 ER on 3 hits and no walks with 9 K’s to get his 1st postseason win.

The Guardians threw 5 wild pitches and walked 9 batters in Monday’s setback. Cleveland has lost 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Yankees, including 3 straight.

Guardians at Yankees projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. RHP Gerrit Cole

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 regular-season starts. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 5-4 win at Detroit Tigers Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 0-0, 2.08 ERA (8 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 8 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season road stats: 7-4, 2.76 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.05 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 15 starts
  • Career vs. Yankees: 0-0, 1 road start (May 2, 2023), 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 4-2 road loss in 2nd MLB start

Cole (1-0, 3.00 ERA) made 17 regular-season starts. He had a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 3-1 victory at Kansas City Royals Thursday in Game 4 of ALDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 3.00 ERA (12 IP, 4 ER), 1.25 WHIP, 6.0 K/9 in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season home stats: 3-2, 4.31 ERA (48 IP, 23 ER), 1.27 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 9 starts
  • 2024 vs. Guardians: 1-0, 1 home start (Aug. 22), 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 6-0 win
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 7-2, 2.82 ERA (73 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.96 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 11 starts
  • Career postseason stats vs. Guardians: 4-0, 1.98 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 0.77 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Guardians at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:33 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Yankees -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 3, Guardians 2

Moneyline

The Yankees (-175) most likely win with Cole taking the mound in Game 2, but the bid-ask difference is too high to recommend a play.

PASS. Bet the run line and/or total instead.

Run line/Against the spread

The Yankees are averaging just 3.8 runs per game this postseason and already covered a -1.5 run line against Cleveland in Game 1.

We know that Cole will make it difficult for Cleveland to score runs — as he has in the postseason throughout his career — but it’s unlikely the Yankees will score enough to cover as run-line favorites for a 3rd straight game.

BET GUARDIANS +1.5 (-160).

Over/Under

This total is low, and I normally wouldn’t recommend betting the Under on a key number like 7. However, with Bibee and Cole taking the mound, it’s hard to consider playing the Over.

The Yankees have scored 3 or fewer runs in 3 of their last 4 games, and Bibee has allowed 2 ER or fewer in 4 straight starts.

BET UNDER 7 (-115).

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NLCS Game 2: New York Mets at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets and LA Dodgers meet Monday in Game 2 of the best-of-7 NLCS. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is scheduled for 4:08 p.m. ET (FOX/FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Dodgers lead 1-0 | Regular-season series: Dodgers won 4-2

After winning back-to-back games against the Philadelphia Phillies to clinch the NLDS, the Mets struggled mightly in a 9-0 loss at the Dodgers in Game 1 Sunday as +144 underdogs. New York was held to just 3 hits, and SP Kodai Senga allowed 3 earned runs on 2 hits and 4 walks with no K’s in 1 1/3 innings to pick up the loss.

The Dodgers have won 3 games in a row after Sunday’s victory as -157 home favorites. RF Mookie Betts led the way on offense with 3 RBIs, 1 of 5 LA players to drive in at least 1 run. SP Jack Flaherty allowed just 2 hits and 2 walks with 6 K’s in 7 scoreless innings to pick up the win.

Mets at Dodgers projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. TBD

Manaea (12-6, 3.47 ERA) made 32 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.08 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 181 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 7-2 home victory vs. Phillies Tuesday in Game 3 of NLDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 2.25 ERA (12 IP, 3 ER), 0.92 WHIP, 7.5 K/9 in 2 starts
  • 2024 regular-season road stats: 6-3, 3.17 ERA (88 IP, 31 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 16 starts
  • 2024 vs. LA: 0-0, 1 road start (April 19), 5 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 9-4 win
  • Career vs. Dodgers: 1-5, 7.09 ERA (47 IP, 37 ER), 1.51 WHIP, 8.0 K/9 in 11 appearances (8 starts)

LA had not yet announced a starter, but RHP Ryan Brasier (1-0, 3.54 ERA in regular season) is expected to serve as the opener. He had a 0.96 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 28 innings in 29 regular-season appearances (4 starts).

  • Last start: No-decision, 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 8-0 victory at San Diego Padres Wednesday in Game 4 of NLDS
  • 2024 postseason stats: 1-0, 4.91 ERA (3 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 3 appearances (1 start)
  • 2024 regular-season home stats: 0-0, 3.24 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 6 ER), 1.02 WHIP, 7.0 K/9 in 17 appearances (3 starts)
  • 2024 vs. Mets: 0-0, 10.80 ERA (1 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 2 relief appearances
  • Career vs. Mets: 1-0, 6.14 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 7 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 8 relief appearances

Mets at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Monday at 9:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -125 | U: -105)

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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Dodgers 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

BET DODGERS (-145).

LA has shut out its opponent in 3 straight games.

In Game 1, the Mets struggled to drive in runs while the Dodgers had their best offensive performance of the postseason. Manaea has struggled against LA in his career, and with the DODGERS (-145) winning back-to-back home games, their moneyline is the best wager.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

There is better value on the Dodgers’ moneyline.

Over/Under

BET OVER 8 (-125).

The Dodgers are 4-1-1 O/U in their last 6 games and have scored 8 or more runs in 2 of their last 3.

The Mets have hit the Over in 3 of their last 5 games and should be expected to bounce back from Sunday’s poor offensive performance. They have scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 6 games.

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ALCS Game 1: Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Cleveland Guardians at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees meet Monday in Game 1 of the best-of-7 ALCS. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is set for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS/truTV/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Regular-season series: Yankees won 4-2

The Guardians emerged victorious in the divisional round after a hard-fought series against the Detroit Tigers, winning 7-3 in Game 5 on Saturday.  Cleveland took control when CF Lane Thomas hit a grand slam in the 5th inning. The Guardians are making their 1st ALCS appearance since 2016.

The Yankees advanced to the ALCS by defeating the Kansas City Royals in 4 games, closing out the series with a 3-1 win in Game 4 behind RHP Gerrit Cole (7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 0 BB, 4 K). RF Juan Soto, 2B Gleyber Torres, and DH Giancarlo Stanton each drove in runs while RHP Luke Weaver secured his 3rd postseason save. This is the Yankees’ 4th ALCS since 2017.

Guardians at Yankees projected starters

RHP Alex Cobb vs. LHP Carlos Rodon

Cobb (2-1, 2.76 ERA) made 3 starts in 2024. The 13-year veteran had a 1.04 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 in 16 1/3 IP.

  • Last regular season start: Win, 6 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 2 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 6-1 victory over the Pittsburgh Pirates on Sept. 1
  • Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 3-0 defeat at the Detroit Tigers Wednesday in ALDS Game 3
  • Career vs. Yankees: 7-5, 3.19 ERA (115 2/3 IP, 45 R (41 ER), 95 H, 19 HR, 27 BB, 92 K in 20 starts
  • Career postseason: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (14 2/3 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 16 H, 0 HR, 4 BB, 12 K in 3 starts

Rodon (16-9, 3.96 ERA) made 32 starts in 2024. The 10-year veteran had a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 175 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 3 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 4-2 loss against Kansas City Royals Oct. 7 in ALDS Game 2
  • 2022 home splits: 9-2, 3.11 ERA (81 IP, 31 R (28 ER), 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 in 14 starts
  • Career vs. Guardians: 8-5, 2.81 ERA (125 IP, 42 R (39 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 124 K in 21 games (19 starts)
  • Career postseason stats: 0-2, 11.37 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 11 H, 1 HR, 4 BB, 10 K in 3 games

Guardians at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at Sunday 10:13 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Yankees -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-160) | Yankees -1.5 (+135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Guardians at Yankees picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 4, Guardians 2

Moneyline

PASS.

It’s hard not to like the Yankees (-160) straight up to take Game 1 at home, but I’ll take my bet to the run line with better odds.

Run line/Against the spread

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+135).

Backing the Yankees is a solid play. The Yankees breezed through the ALDS, easily dispatching the Royals, while the Guardians had to battle back to get past the Tigers. New York has dominated this matchup recently, outscoring Cleveland 14-1 in their last 2 regular-season games.

Rodon has been strong against Cleveland, going 3-0 in his last 4 starts and allowing fewer than 2 runs per game. Meanwhile, Cobb hasn’t beaten the Yankees since 2018 when he pitched for the Balitmore Orioles.

Given New York’s recent edge and Rodon’s track record, the Yankees have a good chance to cover the -1.5 spread.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 7.5 (-110).

I’m leaning toward the Under in Game 1. The Yankees hit the Under in 3 of their 4 postseason games against the Royals, while the Guardians went 2-2-1 on the Under vs. the Tigers.

With the pressure of Game 1 in the ALCS, it’s common to see nerves and a slower offensive start. In fact, 4 of the last 5 ALCS Game 1 matchups have ended with 7 runs or fewer. Given the history and the situation, the Under is a solid play in this game.

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NLCS Game 1: New York Mets at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets and LA Dodgers open up the National League Championship Series Sunday. First pitch from Dodger Stadium is slated for 8:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: 0-0 | Regular-season series: Dodgers won 4-2

The Mets stunned the Philadelphia Phillies 3-1 in their NLDS matchup. SS Francisco Lindor reestablished himself as a superstar this season, and he crowned that jewel with a go-ahead grand slam in the 6th inning of Game 4 to lift the Mets in a series they were dogs in.

The Dodgers came back from a 2-1 deficit to dispatch the San Diego Padres in 5 games. Yes, they have the best team money can buy, but give them credit. They won the final 2 games by a combined score of 10-0 with an injury-ridden pitching staff. OF Teoscar Hernandez was 6-for-18 (.333) with 2 homers and 7 RBIs in the series.

Mets at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Jack Flaherty

Senga (1-0, 3.38 ERA) made 1 start in the regular season. He had a 0.56 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 15.2 K/9 across 5 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: No-decision, 2 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-2 win at Phillies Oct. 5 in Game 1 of NLDS
  • 1 career start vs. Dodgers: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 5-1 home loss July 15, 2023

Flaherty (13-7, 3.17 ERA) made 28 starts in the regular season with the Detroit Tigers and Dodgers. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 162 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 10-2 home loss vs. Padres Oct. 6 in Game 2 of NLDS
  • 1 career start vs. Mets: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 5-4 road win in 10 innings June 13, 2019, with St. Louis Cardinals

Mets at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Saturday at 2:13 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Dodgers -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-165) | Dodgers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mets at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Dodgers 5

Moneyline

The Mets took 2 of 3 in LA early in the year, but the Dodgers won the last 4 meetings by a combined 28-5. The Dodgers could go with Flaherty or RHP Walker Buehler here, and neither of them provide much confidence. The Dodgers could absolutely win a slugfest, but for the price, I’m taking the METS +135.

The 2 games the Padres won against the Dodgers last series? Buehler allowed 6 ER, and Flaherty was dropping F bombs on the way to a 10-2 loss. Flaherty has been very pedestrian in his postseason career at 1-4 with a 4.15 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in 30 1/3 IP.

Run line/Against the spread

I’m taking FRANCISCO LINDOR OVER 1.5 H+R+RBIs (-120). He is 0-for-5 lifetime against Flaherty and 1-for-2 with a homer off Buehler. The way he’s swinging the bat, that feels like a bargain.

Over/Under

With this pitching matchup, we’re going Over. The Dodgers are 6-3-1 O/U in their last 10 and 3-1-1 in their last series. The Mets went 3-1 O/U in their division series. The wind is also slated to be blowing out at 9 mph.

Take the OVER 8 (-120).

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ALDS Game 5: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians meet Saturday to wrap up their best-of-5 ALDS and determine who will move on to face the New York Yankees in the ALCS. Saturday’s 1st pitch at Progressive Field is slated for 1:08 p.m. ET  (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: Tied 2-2 | Regular-season series: Cleveland won 7-6

Detroit took Games 2 and 3 of this series, but Cleveland forced this Game 5 with a 5-4 victory Thursday in Detroit. The Tigers are looking to avoid losing back to bac games for just the 2nd time since Sept. 5. Detroit’s late-season surge and early playoff run has included 15 wins in the club’s last 20 road games.

Cleveland is 1-3 over its last 4 home games, but that stands as more of an anomaly when viewed against the Guardian’s 50-30 regular-season mark at Progressive Field. Cleveland has slashed a mere .214/.270/.336 (.605 OPS) in this series and owns a lackluster .660 OPS since Sept. 4.

Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. LHP Matthew Boyd

Skubal (18-4, 2.39 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He authored a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 across 192 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 8 K in 3-0 win at Guardians Monday
  • Career vs. Guardians (regular season): 2-2, 3.46 ERA (41 2/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 K
  • Per ESPN, has held current Cleveland batters to an aggregate .564 OPS
  • Has pitched 13 scoreless innings in the 2024 postseason; dating back to Sept. 12, has allowed 2 runs over his last 31 innings

Boyd (2-2, 2.72 ERA) made 8 starts in the regular season. He logged a 1.13 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 in 39 2/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 3-0 home loss vs. Tigers Monday
  • Career vs. Tigers (regular season): 0-0, 0.00 ERA (4 IP), 0 H, 1 BB, 5 K in 2 relief outings in 2022
  • Pitched for the Tigers from 2015-23
  • Began season on IL with elbow injury before making his Cleveland debut Aug. 13

Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Friday at 9:15 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Tigers -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Guardians +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+155) | Guardians +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 5, Guardians 2

Moneyline

Skubal is the talent difference in this matchup. And while Boyd-plus-Cleveland bullpen is not a bad counter, the Detroit port-sider has the stamina, stuff, and competitiveness to carry a large part of this eventual result.

The lefty-lefty matchup is a net gain for Cleveland: Detroit has a bottom-5 offense against southpaws. But the Bengals are going just slightly better with the bats. That hasn’t always popped in this ALDS that has seen them go 4-for-34 with runners in scoring position. But the Tigers are doing what they need to do to create traffic on the bases.

The margin here is razor-thin, but DETROIT (-120) is the value side of this contest.

Run line/Against the spread

More juice is added to the equation here, and the betting value is negated. PASS.

Over/Under

The run total here is ultra-low because of the particulars on the mound, including a lockdown Guardians relief corps. But there are enough hidden scoring upside factors that the Over is a lean.

Much will be made about both starting hurlers going on 4-days’ rest. Yes, their numbers take a slight hit when looking at career splits, but in Skubal’s case, he has pitched frequently on such rest in 2024 and his 2023-24 numbers on short rest show marked improvement over his earlier years.

Where a little offense comes into the equation would be in Cleveland potentially seeing Skubal a 3rd time through the order. The Guardians have exhibited a better-than-average uptick in those situations. Add in both teams hitting change-ups with decent production (both starters usually feature a lot of changes) and the Tigers having improved numbers against fly-ball pitchers (which Boyd is), and there are enough reasons to tilt this one toward the OVER 6 (-105).

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NLDS Game 5: San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s San Diego Padres at LA Dodgers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The San Diego Padres and LA Dodgers meet in a decisive Game 5 of their best-of-5 NLDS Friday at Dodger Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 8:08 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Padres vs. Dodgers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoffs series: Tied 2-2; Padres won regular-season series 8-5

The winner heads to the NLCS to face the New York Mets. These teams split the regular-season series in Los Angeles 3-3.

With a 2-1 series lead, the Padres had the Dodgers on the ropes Thursday, but LA picked up an 8-0 victory in Game 4 as a moderate underdog (+118) while the total pushed (8) at most shops. The Over is 3-0-1 in this series.

The Dodgers piled up 12 hits in Game 4, with OF Mookie Betts, C Will Smith and 2B Gavin Lux each swatting HRs while picking up 2 RBIs apiece. LA used 8 pitches, going no more than 1 2/3 IP, while the Padres used 7 arms.

Padres at Dodgers projected starters

RHP Yu Darvish vs. RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto

Darvish (7-3, 3.31 ERA) made 16 regular-season starts. He had a 1.07 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 81 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 0 BB, 2 K in 10-2 road victory in Game 2 in L.A. on Sunday in 1st postseason start of 2024
  • 2024 road splits (regular season): 4-0, 2.63 ERA (27 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.95 WHIP, 7 BB, 25 K, .198 opponents’ batting average (OBA) in 5 starts
  • Career vs. Dodgers (regular season): 5-5, 2.27 ERA (91 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 0.85 WHIP, 10.2 K/9 in 15 starts
  • 2024 vs. Dodgers (regular season): 1-0, 1.72 ERA (15 2/3 IP, 3 ER), .145 OBA, 1 HR, 6 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
  • Career postseason: 5-6, 3.88 ERA (65 IP, 57 K, 1.06 WHIP) in 12 starts

Yamamoto (7-2, 3.00 ERA) made 18 regular-season starts. He had a 1.11 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 in 90 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 3 IP, 5 ER, 5 H (1 HR), 2 BB, 1 K in 7-5 home victory in Game 1 vs. L.A. Saturday in his 1st career postseason start
  • 2024 home splits (regular season): 3-1, 3.88 ERA (46 1/3 IP, 20 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 9 BB, 55 K in 10 starts
  • 2024/Career vs. Padres (regular season): 0-1, 12.00 ERA (6 IP, 2 ER), 1.67 WHIP, 2 BB 8 K in 2 starts

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Padres at Dodgers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 6:19 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Padres +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Dodgers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Padres +1.5 (-185) | Dodgers -1.5 (+150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Padres at Dodgers picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 3, Dodgers 2

Moneyline

The PADRES (+120) are worth a look as short ‘dogs in this decisive Game 5.

Backing the veteran Darvish against the Dodgers (-145) is a good move, especially with the rookie Yamamoto making just his 2nd career postseason start. He likely won’t have a very long leash, and the L.A. bullpen used 7  pitchers in the Game 4 win, so its bullpen is a little more taxed than San Diego’s.

Run line/Against the spread

The Padres +1.5 (-185) will cost you nearly 2 times your potential return, and that’s quite expensive. The risk is just too great for the small reward if you require insurance and just can’t back the underdog straight up.

PASS.

Over/Under

UNDER 8 (-115) might be the best play on the board in Game 5.

We should have a lot of nerves all around, and both of these pitches are capable of throwing a lot of donuts. If they don’t, neither manager is likely to hesitate to go another way, similar to Game 4 where no pitcher lasted very long if things started going south.

We have had a lot of offense in this series, with the Dodgers averaging 5.4 runs per game (RPG), and the Padres going for 5.3 RPG. While that seems to scream Over, this is an elimination game for both teams, and everyone should be a bit on the tight side.

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ALDS Game 4: New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Yankees at Kansas City Royals odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals meet Thursday in Game 4 of their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch at Kauffman Stadium is slated for 7:38 p.m. ET (TBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Yankees vs. Royals odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Series: New York leads 2-1; won regular season series 5-2

The Yankees took Games 1 and 3, winning both in 1-run fashion. Since Sept. 11, New York has gone a combined 13-7 with a 3.23 ERA.

Kansas City pitching has issued 17 free passes in the club’s 2 losses in the series. And Wednesday’s loss, a 3-2 affair that saw the Royals collect just 6 hits and 2 walks, marked K.C.’s 7th in a row at Kauffman Stadium.

Yankees at Royals projected starters

RHP Gerrit Cole vs. RHP Michael Wacha

Cole (8-5, 3.41 ERA) made 17 starts in the regular season. He authored a 1.13 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 95 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 5 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 6-5 win vs. Kansas City Royals Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Royals (regular season): 4-1, 2.77 ERA (52 IP, 16 ER), 0.86 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 8 starts
  • Owns a 3.05 ERA in 109 1/3 career playoff innings

Wacha (13-8, 3.35 ERA) made 29 starts in the regular season. He registered a 1.19 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 in 166 2/3 IP.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 6-5 loss at New York Yankees Saturday (ALDS Game 1)
  • Career vs. Yankees (regular season): 2-1, 2.97 ERA (57 2/3 IP, 19 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 9.4 K/9 in 11 appearances (9 starts)
  • Has registered a 5.36 ERA over 42 career playoff innings

Yankees at Royals odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:40 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Yankees -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Royals +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Yankees -1.5 (+110) | Royals +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Yankees at Royals picks and predictions

Prediction

Yankees 5, Royals 4

Moneyline

The Yankees were a -210 favorite with this same pitching matchup in Game 1 at Yankee Stadium. Neither hurler fared well, and New York earned a 6-5 victory in the series lid-lifter.

New York had a plus-18 run differential vs. Kansas City in the regular season. Per ESPN, the Cole has held Kansas City to an aggregate .603 OPS with a hefty strikeout rate.

Wacha logged some generous rates around the margins in posting his regular-season ERA, and his expected-ERA numbers were more-than-a-half-run higher. The K.C. righty has pitched quite well at Kauffman Stadium (2.89 ERA), and he does have a history of faring well in home starts. But his Game 1 performance and overall postseason line leave enough doubt in this spot.

The Royals offense was productive at home this season. But lately, Kansas City has struggled mightily on home turf. The ballclub is winless (0-7) at Kauffman since Sept. 16. Over those 7 games, the Royals offense has cranked out a whiff-laden .541 OPS.

BACK YANKEES (-155).

Run line/Against the spread

No interest here due to CF Aaron Judge struggles (1-for-14 in this series, .467 OPS across last 12 postseason games) and the likely Thursday unavailability of New York closer Luke Weaver, who got the final 5 outs in Wednesday’s win.

PASS.

Over/Under

Game 4 gets a slight temperature warm-up. Both starters are good, but slight fades compared to their surface numbers. Bullpens are a few days used and seen.

TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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ALDS Game 4: Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Cleveland Guardians at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Cleveland Guardians visit the Detroit Tigers Thursday for Game 4 in their best-of-5 ALDS. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 6:08 p.m. ET (TNT/Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Playoff series: Detroit leads 2-1

Detroit took the series lead with a 3-0 win Wednesday while covering as a +105 home underdog. The Tigers used 6 pitchers Wednesday with LHP Brant Hurter (3 1/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 1 K) getting the win. It was the 2nd straight 3-0 shutout win and the 1st time in Detroit’s history it had 2 shutouts in a single playoff series.

Cleveland has gone 20 innings without scoring since its 7-0 win in the opener of this series. The Guardians left 8 runners on base in Wednesday’s loss.

Guardians at Tigers projected starters

RHP Tanner Bibee vs. TBD

Bibee (12-8, 3.47 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He had a 1.12 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 173 2/3 IP.

  • Career vs. Detroit: 1-3, 5.28 ERA (30 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 31 H, 9 BB, 27 K in 6 starts
  • Only career postseason start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in Saturday’s series opener vs. Detroit

No Detroit pitcher announced at time of publishing. RHP Reese Olson (4-8, 3.58 ERA) is a possibility. He pitched in Game 1 of the series (5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 4 K).

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Guardians at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated Wednesday at 11:03 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Guardians -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Tigers -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians -1.5 (+155) | Tigers +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Guardians at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 2, Guardians 1

Moneyline

LEAN TIGERS (-105).

Detroit is the hotter team, being 7-3 in its last 10 overall and 4-1 in the playoffs thus far while Cleveland is only 4-6 in its last 10 and 1-4 in its last 5 overall.

I expect the Tigers’ “Cinderella” run to continue here and carry on into the ALCS.

This is a lean because the Guardians are the slightly better team on paper and because Cleveland is 2-1 in its last 3 matchups vs. the Tigers in Detroit.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

Detroit will cover here as a +1.5 (-190) underdog, but a line set that high is not worth the risk of betting on, especially when the team has better odds on the ML.

I recommend passing here as betting on the ML and/or total instead, but if you are okay with the risk, you can divvy up units between the run line and moneyline.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 6.5 (+100).

The Under is 2-0-1 in the 3 games in this series and has hit in the last 2 games beween these squads in Detroit. For the Tigers, the Under is 4-0-1 in the playoffs and 7-2-1 in its last 10 overall. For Cleveland, the Under is 8-1-1 in its last 10 outings.

Be aware that this bet comes with risk as betting on an Under number as low as 6.5 is always risky. Especially without knowing Detroit’s starter, although if it’s Olson he did keep the Guardians in check in Game 1.

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