MLB betting odds lines picks predictions best bets – Page 341

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Atlanta Braves (78-70) go for their third win in a row in the second game of a four-game series against the Arizona Diamondbacks (48-102) Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET at Chase Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Braves vs. Diamondbacks odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Braves will go with a bullpen game as RHP Jessee Chavez (3-2, 2.67 ERA) opens the game for his second start of the season. He has a 1.04 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 through 27 IP across one start and 26 relief appearances.

Allowed 2 earned runs over 2 1/3 innings in a loss during his previous appearance as an opener.
Has given up only 1 run over 8 2/3 innings across his last nine outings.

Diamondbacks RHP Luke Weaver (3-5, 4.42 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 55 IP.

This is his fourth start since coming off the injured list.
Has allowed 6 earned runs over 9 innings through his last two starts.

Braves at Diamondbacks odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Diamondbacks +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
Against the spread/ATS: Braves -1.5 (+100) | Diamondbacks +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Prediction

Braves 7, Diamondbacks 3

Money line (ML)

The Braves took the series opener Monday 11-4. They are now 2-2 against the Diamondbacks.

Arizona has lost its last six, and eight of its last nine, games at home. The Diamondbacks have just four wins in their last 21 games and are 28-44 at home and 28-67 against teams with a winning record.

Take the BRAVES (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Braves are 70-78 ATS overall and have covered the spread in three of their last four games. However, they are 8-9 ATS in their last 17 games and are 1-3 ATS against Arizona.

The Diamondbacks, despite being 28-44 straight up at Chase Field, are 38-34 ATS at home but are just 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games.

Arizona has been dropping games against the spread in bunches recently. It has not been able to avoid consecutive ATS losses since August 24, resulting in multiple streaks of at least 3 ATS losses in a row. Their 11-4 loss to the Braves on Monday ended a three-game cover streak, so if the trend continues, they will not cover tonight either.

Betting the Diamondbacks on the money line or the spread is just not a good bet at this time of year. Take the BRAVES -1.5 (+100).

Over/Under (O/U)

Chase Field has the highest Over percentage of any ballpark at 60.9%. Seven of the last nine games there have had totals of 10 runs or more.

Monday’s game was the first in four matchups between the two teams to have more than 10 combined runs.

Each of Weaver’s three starts since coming off the IL had totals of 10 or more runs.

Take OVER 9.5 (-107).

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Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Seattle Mariners (81-69) and Oakland Athletics (82-68) meet Tuesday to continue a four-game AL West series at Oakland Coliseum. First pitch is slated for at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mariners vs. Athletics odds with MLB picks and predictions.

LHP Marco Gonzales is the projected starting pitcher for the Mariners. He is 8-5 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 6.9 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 across 124 1/3 IP through 22 starts.

Current Oakland batters own an aggregate .774 OPS against him.
Coming off making a season-high 110 pitches in his last start (3 ER over 6 IP against the Boston Red Sox).
Owns a second-half ERA of 2.53 through 11 starts.

RHP Paul Blackburn is the projected starting pitcher for the Athletics. Blackburn is 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, 5.9 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9 over 27 1/3 IP across six starts.

Has been hindered by a .341 batting average on balls in play.
Has allowed 2 or fewer earned runs in three of his last five starts. That includes an Aug. 23 turn against Seattle (5 2/3 IP, 2 ER).

Mariners at Athletics odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:27 p.m. ET.

Money line: Mariners +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Athletics -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mariners +1.5 (-180) | Athletics -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Athletics 5, Mariners 3

Money line (ML)

The Mariners are continuing with a road trip that opened by taking two of three games at Kansas City over the weekend. In a stretch that includes Seattle sweeping a two-game set at Oakland Aug. 23-24 and taking Monday’s series opener 4-2 the Mariners are 13-5 over their last 18 road games.

The Athletics were 12-8 over their previous 20 games before dropping Monday’s opener.

Seattle holds a 9-4 lead in the season series, but the A’s are a solid play with the way they’ve hit Gonzales. TAKE OAKLAND (-140).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The risk here is well-rewarded, and the A’s have notched solid offensive numbers of late (.748 OPS in September).

BACK the ATHLETICS -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under (O/U)

The Under was a solid winning play on Monday. There are a few cross signals for this one, though. A batter’s breeze (which hurts Gonzales as a fly-ball pitcher) is added to the mix. PASS.

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San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Francisco Giants (97-53) travel down the coast to start a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (76-73) at Petco Park. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Giants vs. Padres odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Giants lead 7-6.

RHP Kevin Gausman makes his 31st start for the Giants. Gausman is 14-6 with a 2.78 ERA (175 IP, 54 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.7 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Loss, 7-4, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 7 K Thursday vs. the Padres.
Gausman is 2-1 in four starts against San Diego this year with a 2.64 ERA (24 IP, 7 ER), 1.08 WHIP and 6.3 K/BB.
Road splits: 8-2 with a 2.11 ERA (98 1/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.5 K/BB in 17 starts.

RHP Joe Musgrove is projected to get the nod for the Padres. Musgrove is 11-9 with a 2.99 ERA (165 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 across 28 starts and one relief appearance.

Last outing: Win, 9-6, with 6 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 3 BB and 4 K Wednesday at the Giants.
Musgrove is 1-2 in three starts against San Francisco this season with a 6.75 ERA (16 IP, 5 ER), 17 H, 5 BB and 17 K.
Home splits: 6-4 with a 2.42 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 1.02 WHIP and 4.9 K/BB in 14 starts.

Giants at Padres odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:57 p.m. ET.

Money line: Giants -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Padres -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Giants -1.5 (+145) | Padres +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

Prediction

Giants 4, Padres 2

Money line (ML)

Slight “LEAN” to the GIANTS (-112) for a tiny unit – if at all – because the Padres’ playoff hopes hang in the balance and Musgrove has been awesome at home this season. However, the Under is my favorite play in this game.

Outside of San Diego’s obvious motivation angle, which is accounted for in the oddsmakers’ pricing, there aren’t many reasons to back the Padres.

The Giants have an edge in the three most important phases of the game (starting and relief pitching and hitting) and also are motivated to beat the Los Angeles Dodgers in their NL West divisional race.

San Diego is just 10-25 overall as an underdog and 3-7 as a home underdog while San Francisco is 24-13 overall as a road favorite.

There has to be value in the GIANTS (-112) at a near coin-flip price since they have the best record in baseball and their ace on the hill Tuesday. It seems that the market is undervaluing San Francisco and overrating San Diego, even in September.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I only “lean” to San Francisco’s money line and don’t like this spot enough to lay it with the Giants -1.5 (+145). On top of that, San Francisco is just 16-21 ATS as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 7.5 (-112) for 1 unit because the Giants are 13-22-2 O/U as road favorites, the Padres are 1-7-2 O/U as home underdogs and San Diego’s lineup has been atrocious this month.

The Padres hitters have the third-lowest WAR and rank 27th in both wOBA and wRC+ in September.

This total is suspiciously low considering how poorly both bullpens have been this month and the Over cashing in eight of the last nine Giants-Padres meetings. Maybe I’m overthinking it but I’m expecting a majority of the market to be on the Over by the time this game starts.

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Texas Rangers at New York Yankees odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Texas Rangers at New York Yankees odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Texas Rangers (55-95) and New York Yankees (84-67) tangle Tuesday at 7:05 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Let’s analyze the lines around the Rangers vs. Yankees odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Dane Dunning is the projected starting pitcher for the Rangers. He is 5-8 with a 4.28 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 107 1/3 IP spanning 24 games (22 starts).

Rejoins the starting rotation after making two relief appearances and hasn’t started a game since Aug. 20. Allowed 10 base runners and 5 runs over 4 2/3 IP at the Boston Red Sox.
Owns a 6.65 ERA and 1.73 WHIP on the road.
Has been undone by a .344 BABIP.

LHP Jordan Montgomery is the projected starting pitcher for the Yankees. He is 5-6 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 through 144 IP over 27 starts.

Struck out a season-high 12 batters while allowing 1 run over 5 2/3 IP Thursday at the Baltimore Orioles. Owns a 15.1 K/9 over his last three starts.
Has posted a 3.25 ERA and 1.13 WHIP at Yankee Stadium.

Rangers at Yankees odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 3:05 p.m. ET.

Money line: Rangers +230 (bet $100 to win $230) | Yankees -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Rangers +1.5 (+105) | Yankees -1.5 (-130)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Prediction

Rangers 5, Yankees 4

Money line (ML)

New York defeated Texas 4-3 in Monday’s series opener and sent the Rangers to their fifth loss in their last six games. A slugging Texas offense owns a .541 OPS over that stretch.

The Yankees have gone just 8-15 over their last 23 games with a 4.58 team ERA over that stretch. Over their last 10 games, though, the Bronx Bombers hit 24 home runs and logged a .814 OPS.

There is some downside to relying much on Dunning, but there is some expected-ERA lean toward him and away from Montgomery. The Yankees lefty threw 99 pitches in his last outing. His next-time-out starts after 95-plus pitches are not too sharp.

The price here is attractive enough to warrant a play on TEXAS (+230).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line. Shoot for the full outright reward for the best leverage.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Texas offense is woeful and that’s been due, in large part, to a terrible .651 road OPS. But the Rangers have posted a solid .728 OPS over their last 15 games away from Arlington.

Add to that — and the Yankees’ offense of late — unimpressive analytics on both bullpens: take the OVER 8.5 (-102).

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Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Houston Astros (89-61) meet the Los Angeles Angels (72-78) Tuesday for the second game of their four-game series at Angel Stadium. First pitch is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Astros vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Houston took the series opener Monday 10-0

Season series: Astros lead 11-5.

RHP Jose Urquidy takes the mound for the Astros. Urquidy is 7-3 with a 3.38 ERA (90 2/3 IP, 34 ER), 0.98 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 in 18 starts.

Last outing: Win, 7-2, with 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 6 K Wednesday at the Texas Rangers.
Urquidy earned a no-decision in Houston’s 9-1 home win over L.A. May 12 with a stat line of 3 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 0 BB and 4 K.
vs. Angels on the current roster (19 PA): 5.39 FIP with a .421 batting average, .460 wOBA, .567 expected slugging percentage, 15.8 K% and 85.1 mph exit velocity.

RHP Packy Naughton is on the hill for the Angels. Naughton is 0-2 with a 4.32 ERA (16 2/3 IP, 8 ER), 19 H, 8 BB and 11 K across three starts and two relief appearances in his rookie season.

Astros at Angels odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:47 p.m. ET.

Money line: Astros -230 (bet $230 to win $100) | Angels +180 (bet $100 to win $180)
Against the spread/ATS: Astros -2.5 (+105) | Angels +2.5 (-130)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Prediction

Astros 8, Angels 3

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Astros (-230) because they are clearly the right side since it’s September so Houston is ramping up for the postseason and L.A. is planning offseason vacations.

However, the Astros are just a little too expensive for an outright win and I’m hesitant to include them in a parlay because of their price as a road favorite.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ASTROS -2.5 (+105) for a tiny wager because their lineup ranks in the top 3 of wOBA, wRC+ and WAR this month whereas L.A.’s lineup is dead-last in each of those metrics for Sept.

Furthermore, this is a “pros” and “joes” play with both sides of the market laying it with the Astros, which has caused sportsbooks to increase Houston’s money line.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (+105) because the “pros” and “joes” are on the Over as well and have steamed the total up from the 9-run opener.

Also, the Astros-Angels have played to the Over in 10 of their last 14 meetings in L.A., Houston is 10-5 O/U when Urquidy gets the start and the Astros are 39-24-4 O/U against AL West teams.

I’d feel stronger about the OVER 9.5 (+105) if L.A.’s lineup wasn’t a complete no-show over the past three weeks.

However, as we saw Monday, the Astros are dialed in at the plate and the Angels’ bullpen is weak enough that Houston can push this game Over the total itself.

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Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Toronto Blue Jays (84-66) meet the Tampa Bay Rays (93-58) Tuesday to continue their three-game series at Tropicana Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Blue Jays vs. Rays odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Tampa beat Toronto in the series opener 6-4 as Rays IF Yandy Diaz stood out, hitting for 3-for-4 with 1 home run, 1 double and 3 RBIs.

Season series: Rays lead 10-7.

RHP Alek Manoah makes his 18th start for the Blue Jays. Manoah is 6-2 with 3.39 ERA (93 IP, 35 ER), 1.03 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 this year.

Last outing: Win, 8-1, with 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB and 10 K Sept. 13 vs. Rays.
Manoah is 2-1 in three starts against Tampa this year with a 0.96 ERA (18 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 29 K.
vs. Rays on the current roster (66 PA): 0.87 FIP with a .102 batting average (BA), .171 wOBA, .234 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 39.4 K% and 87.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Drew Rasmussen gets the nod for the Rays. Rasmussen is 3-1 with a 3.00 ERA (66 IP, 22 ER), 1.15 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across eight starts and 25 relief appearances.

Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 5 IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 3 K Sept. 14 vs. Blue Jays.
Rasmussen is 1-0 against Toronto this year with a 0.00 ERA (7 IP), 3 H, 1 BB and 5 K in one start and one bullpen outing.
vs. Blue Jays on the current roster (23 PA): 2.07 FIP with a .091 BA, .122 wOBA, .437 xSLG, 21.7 K% and 92.1 mph EV.

Blue Jays at Rays odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:03 p.m. ET.

Money line: Blue Jays -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Rays -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) | Rays +1.5 (-180)
Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

Prediction

Blue Jays 7, Rays 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the BLUE JAYS (-108) because Manoah is an ace, their lineup has been a little better against right-handed pitching and Toronto’s bullpen has been one of the best units in baseball this month.

Manoah’s pitching peripherals vs. active Tampa hitters are as amazing as his basic numbers. He grades in 93rd percentile in hard-hit rate, 85th in EV and 84th in xSLG while Rasmussen ranks in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate and 8th percentile in EV.

Toronto’s lineup has been by far the most productive in baseball this month. The Blue Jays’ 149 wRC+ in September is 14 higher than the next closest team, their .393 wOBA is 28 percentage points more than the second-place team and they are way out in front of WAR too.

It’s only a “lean” toward Toronto because Tampa is the best team in the AL and Manoah is less effective on the road compared to at home. Manoah has 0 ER in 15 IP with 20/1 K/BB in two home starts vs. the Rays but gave up 2 ER over 3 2/3 IP in his visit to Tampa.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS with a slight “lean” on the Blue Jays -1.5 (+145) because this price-point is almost big enough to take a stab at Toronto’s run line. However, Tampa is 10-6 ATS as a home underdog and Toronto is 18-20 as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 8.5 (-112) for a tiny wager because I much prefer the Toronto side than the total in this spot. However, the market is hammering the Over and I’d prefer to fade the one-sided action than follow it.

The situation (high stakes game between division rivals with playoff implications) lends itself more so to a lower-scoring affair. Both of these bullpens have been dialed in this month and each starter has “top of the rotation” caliber stuff.

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Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Dodgers (96-54) have won eight of their last nine games to pull within a game of first in the NL West, and they’ll look to continue that success against the Colorado Rockies (70-79) Tuesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET at Coors Field. Let’s analyze the lines around the Dodgers vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Dodgers LHP Julio Urias (18-3, 2.99 ERA) makes his 30th start. He has a 1.03 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 168 1/3 IP.

Leads the majors with 18 wins and is on quite a run over the past two months. He has put up a 1.44 ERA with 58 K and just 3 homers allowed in 56 1/3 IP in his last 10 starts.
He has faced the Rockies three times this season, twice at Coors Field. In those starts he has allowed 9 ER in 18 2/3 IP (4.34 ERA) and recorded a 15/4 K/BB.

Rockies RHP Antonio Senzatela (4-9, 4.06 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 6.3 K/9 through 144 IP.

Has recorded a quality start in seven straight outings and posted a 2.60 ERA over that span, albeit with just 29 K across 45 IP (5.8 K/9).
Allowed 11 ER across 6 IP while being roughed up in two starts against the Dodgers in April. He fared much better against them Aug. 29 when he tossed 7 scoreless innings in Colorado.

Dodgers at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:06 a.m. ET.

Money line: Dodgers -220 (bet $220 to win $100) | Rockies +175 (bet $100 to win $175)
Against the spread/ATS: Dodgers -2.5 (+100) | Rockies +2.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -125 | U: +100)

Prediction

Dodgers 6, Rockies 4

Money line (ML)

The Dodgers come into this contest red-hot, they have a lot on the line in a tight division race, and they also have the pitching edge.

The Rockies are 45-27 at home on the season though, which checks in as the 6th-best home win percentage in the league.

The Dodgers should win, but the price here is just a little too steep so PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Senzatela is by no means dominant but he does an excellent job of keeping the ball in the park and limiting free passes. He has a respectable 3.89 ERA over 13 home starts, typically works pretty deep into games, and has allowed more than 3 ER just once in his last 12 starts.

Senzatela is likely to avoid disaster Tuesday and keep his team in the game. The ROCKIES +2.5 (-120) should stay close enough to cash on this run line bet.

Over/Under (O/U)

Neither starting pitcher is likely to completely shut down the opposition, but both should be able to limit the damage, even in a tough environment. The Dodgers are good but not elite vs RHP (7th in wRC+) and the under is actually 34-16-6 in their last 56 games vs. a right-hander.

Meanwhile, the under is 7-2 in Colorado’s last nine against a lefty, and they’re facing a tough one today. The final score will probably end up very close to the total, but UNDER 10.5 (+100) looks like the side to take.

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Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with expert MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago White Sox (85-65) and Detroit Tigers (73-78) play the second game of their three-game series Tuesday afternoon at Comerica Park, with the first pitch coming at 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the White Sox vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

White Sox LHP Dallas Keuchel (8-9, 5.23 ERA) makes his 29th start and 30th appearance. He has a 1.47 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 151 1/3 IP.

Keuchel has struggled this month, posting a 7.36 ERA through three September starts. He allowed 12 earned runs in his last 14 2/3 innings, with just 7 strikeouts and 8 walks.
In two starts against the Tigers this season, Kuechel allowed 8 runs across 10 innings with 5 strikeouts and 4 walks.

Tigers LHP Tyler Alexander (2-3, 4.13 ERA) makes his 13th start and 39th appearance. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.6 K/9 through 89 1/3 IP.

Hasn’t pitched more than 5 2/3 innings in five outings since Aug. 20 but allowed just 8 earned runs over his last 24 1/3 innings.
He has allowed 3 earned runs over 8 innings out of the bullpen against the White Sox this season.

White Sox at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:55 a.m. ET.

Money line: White Sox -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Tigers +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
Against the spread/ATS: White Sox -1.5 (+100) | Tigers +1.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

Prediction

White Sox 6, Tigers 3

Money line (ML)

The White Sox have dropped three straight games to the Tigers after losing 4-3 Monday.

This is a winnable game for them with Anderson on the bump for Detroit. He’s not going to go deep into this game, and with Chicago’s bats, the White Sox should be able to get into the bullpen relatively early.

Bet the WHITE SOX (-170) to win outright.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Yes, the White Sox have been bad against the spread lately, going just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games. The Tigers, on the other hand, are 7-3 in that same stretch. Chicago should be able to put enough runs across to make up for Keuchel’s potential struggles on the road.

I like the WHITE SOX -1.5 (+100) to win by at least 2 runs.

Over/Under (O/U)

Keuchel showed some signs of turning things around in his last start, in allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings against the Los Angeles Angels.

Though he still hasn’t won a start since Aug. 16, and has just two victories since the middle of June, he’ll keep the Tigers in check.

Bet the UNDER 9.5 (-130).

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New York Mets at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (73-77) and Boston Red Sox (86-65) open a brief two-game series Tuesday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET at Fenway Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Red Sox odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Marcus Stroman (9-12, 2.88 ERA) makes his 32nd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.0 K/9 through 169 IP.

Has recorded a sub-3.00 ERA both on the road and at home this season, although the skills haven’t been quite as good across his 16 road starts. He has a 2.81 ERA and 7.8 K/9 and benefited from a .258 BABIP on the road.
He has always been good at suppressing homers and sports an excellent 0.7 HR/9 on the season. He hasn’t allowed a single home run over his last five starts.

Red Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (11-8, 5.00 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.4 K/9 through 142 1/3 IP.

Has struggled to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in 11 home starts this season, however his 65/15 K/BB in 52 2/3 IP is very strong and he doesn’t have a history of struggling at Fenway, so we’ll chalk this up to a small sample.
Had a stretch in which he recorded double digit swinging strikes in 9 of 11 starts, but followed that up by reaching the mark just once in his last six tries.

Mets at Red Sox odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Red Sox -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-170) | Red Sox -1.5 (+135)
Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Prediction

Red Sox 5, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

The Mets have lost eight of their last 11 games and are pretty much eliminated from playoff contention. Boston just completed a weekend sweep of the Baltimore Orioles to extend its win streak to five games and it looks well on its way to locking down a wild card spot.

The Red Sox are 47-29 at home this season and have scored a league-best 5.83 runs per game at home. They also rank top five in both OPS and wRC+ against right-handed pitching.

The RED SOX (-145) should win their sixth in a row Tuesday.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Stroman has been pitching well all season, and despite the tough matchup, he should be able to keep his team close. There’s not enough value on either side of this line so PASS on the run line.

Over/Under (O/U)

Rodriguez has pitched better than his ERA would suggest, as all of the ERA estimators show he’s deserving of a sub-4.00 ERA. He has been victimized by a .358 BABIP and 67.1% LOB% that have inflated his numbers.

On the other side, Stroman has allowed more than 3 ER just three times all year, and never more than 5 ER in an outing. The Boston offense had a big weekend against Baltimore, but they’re not likely to have a huge day in this one.

A small play on UNDER 9.5 (-120) is the call.

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St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The St. Louis Cardinals (80-69) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-59) play the second game of a four-game series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Cardinals vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Cardinals RHP Jake Woodford (2-3, 4.30 ERA) makes his sixth start and 24th appearance. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 6.9 K/9 through 52 1/3 IP.

Allowed 3 earned runs over 13 1/3 innings with 4 walks and 8 strikeouts through two starts and one relief appearance since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis in September.
Held Milwaukee scoreless over 7 innings across two relief appearances, the most recent of which was 5 1/3 innings Sept. 4.

Brewers RHP Brandon Woodruff (9-9, 2.55 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 0.96 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.5 K/9 through 169 1/3 IP.

Has a 4.34 ERA through 29 innings across his last five starts and allowed 6 earned runs over 5 innings in a start at St. Louis to start that span.
Does an excellent job of limiting hard contact and ranks in the 92nd percentile in HardHit rate and 94th percentile in average exit velocity.

Cardinals at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:15 a.m. ET.

Money line: Cardinals +180 (bet $100 to win $180) | Brewers -230 (bet $230 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Cardinals +1.5 (-117) | Brewers -1.5 (-103)
Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Prediction

Brewers 5, Cardinals 4

Money line (ML)

The analysis on Tuesday’s game can pull in a number of directions.

Woodruff should provide Milwaukee a starting pitching advantage over Woodford, but he is having one of his worst stretches of the season over his last five outings. His worst start of the year was Aug. 19 against the Cardinals.

These relief corps are both top-10 units considering SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% in September.

St. Louis has been hitting the ball significantly better in September than Milwaukee. The Cardinals are top-10 in wRC+, OPS and wOBA over the last three weeks, while the Brewers are 18th or worse in those categories over that span.

Ultimately, Milwaukee is simply too expensive in this spot. St. Louis has won nine straight games and if anything warrants a play as a value-based bet on the Cardinals (+190) but this is a PASS for me.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

St. Louis has just been running too hot lately to believe with much confidence that they’re going to get blown out Tuesday. The Cardinals have won three of their last five meetings with the Brewers outright, all as underdogs, and covered the spread in one of their two losses.

The relief corps for the Cardinals has been excellent in September and should be able to help keep things within reach should Woodford not extend beyond the fifth inning.

St. Louis has been more productive as a road underdog against the spread than Milwaukee has as a home favorite, although I don’t put too much stock into those numbers.

A small play on the CARDINALS +1.5 (-117) is my “lean” here.

Over/Under (O/U)

This total feels a run too low for me. Woodruff hasn’t been as sharp over his last few starts and Woodford is unlikely to escape unscathed as he did in relief against the Brewers at the start of the month.

American Family Field is one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the league, trailing only Coors Field in Denver in run production.

I like the OVER 7.5 (-115).

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