The Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-2, 0-1 SEC) travel to College Station, Texas, for an SEC West contest against the No. 13 Texas A&M Aggies (3-1, 0-1) Saturday. Kickoff at Kyle Field is slated for 7 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mississippi State vs. Texas A&M odds and lines, and make our expert college football picks, predictions and bets.
Mississippi State is coming off back-to-back one-score losses, most recently a 28-25 loss to the LSU Tigers Saturday. MSU lost that game despite logging 29 first downs to LSU’s 15 and outgaining the Tigers 486 to 343 in total yards. The Bulldogs are 2-5 across seven regular-season one-score contests dating back to last season.
The Aggies dominated in three straight wins to start the season before falling 20-10 with just 272 total yards against the Arkansas Razorbacks Saturday. A substandard Aggies passing game failed to generate opportunities after the Razorbacks jumped out to a 17-0 lead. Texas A&M heads into this game ranked 105th in the nation with a 55.2% passing accuracy mark.
Rankings courtesy of the AFCA Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports.
Mississippi State at Texas A&M odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 4:20 p.m. ET.
- Money line: Mississippi State +250 (bet $100 to win $250) | Texas A&M -320 (bet $320 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mississippi State +7.5, -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Texas A&M -7.5, +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
- Over/Under (O/U): 45.5, O: -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | U: -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
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Mississippi State at Texas A&M odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Texas A&M 28, Mississippi State 17
Money line
Early-week money has been flowing more to the A&M side. Profit leverage looks to be covered, so a PASS is recommended on the money line.
Against the spread
The Bulldogs are 1-8 ATS over their last nine road games against teams with a winning home record. The Aggies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an ATS loss. The home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven series games between these two programs dating back to 2015.
The unexpected Texas A&M setback against Arkansas is making for some “bet-on-gravity” opportunity here. A&M went a combined 4-for-15 on third and fourth downs last week.
The Aggies beat the Bulldogs 28-14 in last year’s game, and A&M outgained MSU, 186 yards to minus-2, on the ground. Look for an angry home side to get back to a run game that dominated in the last month of the 2020 season.
Texas A&M will have to do so against a Mississippi State team that has stopped the run so far but those stops came against no teams ranked in the rushing top-40 and two ranked outside the top-90.
BACK THE AGGIES -7.5 (+100).
Over/Under
The total has edged downward early in the week. There is just a sliver of value on an UNDER 45.5 (-110) lean.
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