The Minnesota Twins (4-1) and Miami Marlins (2-4) meet Wednesday to put a bow on a 3-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is slated for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Tied 1-1
The Twins, who went just 32-49 (.395) away from home last season, opened with 4 straight road win, but after scoring 11 runs on Monday, they failed to score a run in Tuesday’s 2nd game.
On Monday, Miami scored just 1 run on 12 hits. On Tuesday, the Marlins and Twins combined for just 6 hits. The Fish scored 1 again, but it was enough in a 1-0 victory as ace Sandy Alcantara pitched a complete game allowing just 3 hits, 1 BB with 5 K’s.
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Twins at Marlins projected starters
RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Jesus Luzardo
Lopez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is making his 2nd start of the season. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9 and 13.5 K/9 through 5 1/3 IP.
- Pitched the last 5 years for the Marlins; had a 3.75 ERA, 1.17 WHIP in 180 IP for the Marlins last season
- Owns a career 3.45 ERA in Miami’s home park
- Has held opposing batters to a .567 OPS in 17 career March/April games.
Luzardo (1-0, 0.00 ERA) is tabbed for his 2nd start. He owns a 1.06 WHIP, 6.4 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 5 2/3 IP.
- Had a breakthrough in 2022 with a 3.32 ERA in 18 starts covering 100 1/3 IP
- Owns a 3.88 ERA across 10 career games in March/April
Twins at Marlins odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:56 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Marlins -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Marlins +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7 (O: -120 | U: +100)
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Twins at Marlins picks and predictions
Prediction
Miami 4, Minnesota 2
Moneyline
Peg the Twins as being a little schedule-overrated so far. This game ends the road trip and their home opener at Target Field is Thursday. Minnesota went 2-9 over its last 9 road get-away games last season.
Both starters are solid, but figure the Marlins offense — stuck on 2.00 runs per game so far — as being unlucky around the margins (low batting average on balls in play in leadoff and scoring situations).
MARLINS (-105) or better is the overall value side here.
Run line/Against the spread
A Miami lean and the quality pitching here makes the RL something to look into … until we see the price. Too much juice floats that tag, and its best to STEER CLEAR of this play.
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Over/Under
Good starters, rested bullpens on a get-away day. Both starters have pitched well in early-season games in the past. Lopez figures to have some local knowledge in his return to South Florida.
TAKE THE UNDER 7 (+100).
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