Tag: Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers odds predictions pick betting line spread

Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (60-56) and the Detroit Tigers (51-63) wrap up a 4-game series Thursday at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 6-4

The Twins sit atop the AL Central, 4 1/2 games clear of the 2nd-place Cleveland Guardians. It’s no thanks to the lowly Detroit Tigers, however, who have topped the Twins in each of the past 2 games and 6 of 10 meetings overall this season. The Over and Under have alternated in each of Minnesota’s last 6 games.

The Tigers have scored 15 runs in the 2 wins against the Twins, the most runs in consecutive games since plating 18 runs at Coors Field in 2 games from July 1-2. The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 games for Detroit.

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Twins at Tigers projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. RHP Reese Olson

Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 10.9 K/9 in 59 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 2 H, 0 BB, 7 K in 12-1 home win vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Saturday
  • 2023 road splits: 1-4, 3.16 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 11 ER – 4 HR), .205 opponent batting average (OBA) in 7 starts
  • 2023 vs. Detroit: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 8 K in a 4-1 road win June 23

Olson (1-5, 4.94 ERA) makes his 10th start and 13th appearance. He has a 1.17 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 8-0 home loss vs. Tampa Bay Rays Friday
  • 2023 home splits: 1-3, 5.68 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 20 ER – 7 HR), .234 OBA in 5 starts and 2 relief appearances

Twins at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:11 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Tigers 4

Moneyline

The TWINS (-150) look to level the 4-game series at 2 games apiece in the finale, and they’re a good bet behind Maeda. While his overall results have been rather uneven, he’s twirled 5 scoreless frames against Detroit back in late June. The pitching scales are tipped slightly in Minnesota’s favor in this getaway game, as Olson has just been too erratic.

While Olson did top the Twins in a start earlier this season, he is 0-2 with a 7.30 ERA across 12 1/2 IP across 3 starts and 1 relief appearance under the sun.

Run line/Against the spread

The TWINS -1.5 (+115) are worth a look on the run line.

While Minnesota has failed to win or cover the run line in the past 2 games as a favorite, the Twins are a respectable 3-3 across the past 6 games on the run line as favorites.

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Over/Under

OVER 8.5 (-115) is the lean, but go very lightly.

The Over has alternated in each of the past 6 games for the Twins, with an 11-5 edge to the Over in the previous 16 road outings.

For the Tigers, the Over is 3-1 in the past 4 games overall.

The Over has cashed in 3 of the past 4 head-to-head meetings, too.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (59-54) open a 3-game series against the Detroit Tigers (49-62) on Monday at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 4-3

The Twins defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 5-3 Sunday to extend their winning streak to 4 games. Minnesota is 4 1/2 games ahead of the Cleveland Guardians for 1st place in the AL Central.

The Tigers lost 10-6 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Sunday as they were outscored 20-10 in the 3-game series. Detroit is 9 games back of Minnesota in the division.

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Twins at Tigers projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. LHP Joey Wentz

Lopez (6-6, 4.01 ERA) makes his 23rd start. He has a 1.12 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 134 2/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 5 K in 3-2 road victory vs. St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • 2023 road stats: 3-4, 3.39 ERA (71 2/3 IP, 27 ER) over 12 starts
  • One career start vs. Tigers: Loss, 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB, 10 K in a 3-2 road loss on June 24

Wentz (2-9, 6.37 ERA) makes his 16th start (18th appearance). He has a 1.60 WHIP, 3.8 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 76 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 4 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 6 K in a 5-0 road win over the Miami Marlins on July 29
  • Home stats: 0-3, 6.18 ERA (39 1/3 IP, 27 ER) in 8 starts and 1 relief appearance
  • Career vs. Twins: 0-2, 2.29 ERA (19 2/3 IP, 5 ER) across 4 starts

Twins at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Tigers +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (-105) | Tigers +1.5 (-115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Twins at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Tigers 3

Moneyline

While the Twins (-165) should extend their winning streak on Monday, I’ll PASS on taking their money line unless you can get it at -160 or better odds.

Run line/Against the spread

TWINS -1.5 (-105) is how I’d wager on the run line as Minnesota should have success against Wentz. In the first 7 meetings between these teams this season, the winner has won by multiple runs in 6 of them.

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Over/Under

UNDER 8.5 (-120) is the pick in this divisional bout as Lopez should limit the Tigers on Monday. Besides Lopez’s expected success on the mound, the Twins have the 20th-best wOBA (.303) and wRC+ (93) against left-handed pitching since the start of July.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Minnesota Twins (39-38) and Detroit Tigers (32-42) meet Saturday for game 2 of a 3-game series. First pitch from Comerica Park is set for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 3-2

Minnesota won 4-1 as a -123 road favorite Friday in the series opener. SP Kenta Maeda threw 5 scoreless innings, including 8 K’s and only 2 walks. The Twins got out to an early 3-0 lead by the end of the 2nd inning and later took a 4-0 lead in the 6th, a lead that proved to be insurmountable for Detroit.

The Twins have now won 3 straight after previously losing 3 in a row. Detroit is now 3-2 in its last 5 overall games and 2-2 in its last 4 at home. Minnesota sits at 16-19 on the road this season while the Tigers have a 17-20 home record.

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Twins at Tigers projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Reese Olson

Lopez (3-4, 4.40 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 in 90 innings.

  • Last outing: Loss, 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 9 K in 9-3 home loss Monday vs. Boston Red Sox
  • First career start vs. Detroit

Olson (0-2, 5.59 ERA) makes his 4th start and 5th appearance. He has a 1.09 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 19 1/3 innings.

  • Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 6-4 home win Monday vs. Kansas City Royals
  • First career start vs. Minnesota

Twins at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:23 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Tigers +135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+100) | Tigers +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Twins at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Tigers 6, Twins 4

Moneyline

LEAN TIGERS (+135). 

The Twins are the hotter team in terms of win streak, but both teams are actually 5-5 in their last 10 matchups. Both teams are also pretty even when it comes to road vs. home record this season, but where the Tigers have the edge is in recent matchups. Detroit is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings overall and 2-1 in the last 3 meetings in Detroit.

Run line/Against the spread

BET TIGERS +1.5 (-120). 

With teams as evenly matched as these, it’s easy for me to believe that this will be a close game, especially considering the season series currently sits at 3-2 Detroit. The Tigers should be able to cover here, even if they don’t take the overall win, but the O/U is still your safest play.

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Over/Under

BET OVER 8.5 (-110). 

For Minnesota, the Over is 4-0 in Lopez’s last 4 starts on grass and 4-0 in his last 4 starts vs. a team with a losing record. For Detroit, the Over is 7-0 in its last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record, 4-0 in its last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning record, and 6-0 in its last 6 games following a loss, all per covers.com.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Detroit Tigers (32-41) welcome the Minnesota Twins (38-38) Friday to Comerica Park. First pitch is set for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tigers lead 3-1

The Twins have won 2 straight games, but have won just 3 of their last 8. Minnesota is just 15-19 on the road this season and is 4-6 in its last 10 away from home.

The Tigers are 17-19 at home and 6-4 in their last 10 games. Detroit has won 5 of its last 7 games as well.

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Twins at Tigers projected starters

RHP Kenta Maeda vs. LHP Joey Wentz

Maeda (0-4, 9.00 ERA) makes his 5th start. He has a 1.63 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 in 16 innings.

  • The 35-year-old, who missed last season with an injury, has not started since April 26
  • In that last start vs. the New York Yankees: 3 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, 2 BB, 2 K

Wentz (1-7, 6.82 ERA) makes his 15th appearance and 14th start. He has a 1.56 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 8.3 K/9 in 62 innings.

  • The 25-year-old has struggled this season after going 2-2 in 7 starts and having a 3.03 ERA as a rookie last year.
  • Last start: Loss, 5 IP,  6 H, 2 ER, 1 BB, 9 K in 2-0 loss to Minnesota Twin on Saturday
  • Tigers are 5-9 with Wentz on the mound

Twins at Tigers odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 12:02 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Twins -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Tigers +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+110) | Tigers +1.5 (-135)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Twins at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 6, Tigers 5

Moneyline

PASS.

The Twins haven’t been great on the road this season, and they haven’t played well against the Tigers either.

Couple that with starting Maeda, and it’s not a great recipe for success. They are still the better side, so I would prefer to play the underdog Detroit on the run line in this situation.

Run line/Against the spread

BET TIGERS +1.5 (-135).

Maeda is older and has struggled in half of his starts this season and he has not pitched since April 26. That may not bode well for Minnesota here.

Detroit is also 18-18 on the run line as the home team which actually ranks tied for the 7th-best cover rate in the MLB. Detroit is also 34-30 on the run line as an underdog. Minnesota is 23-28 on the run line as a favorite.

Considering the trends and the value here, take TIGERS +1.5 (-135).

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Over/Under

LEAN OVER 8.5 (-115).

Neither pitcher has been great this season, and their lacking support is reason enough to think the Over is the better play.

On top of that, the Tigers are 39-32-2 O/U and have topped the total in 3 of their last 4 games. The Twins have gone Over in 6 of their last 8 games and are 4-1 O/U in their last 5.

Take the OVER 8.5 (-115).

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (30-21) meet the Detroit Tigers (19-30) Wednesday for 4th game of their 5-game set at Comerica Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Detroit has won 2 of the first 3 games of this series, taking the series opener 7-5 Monday then splitting a doubleheader Tuesday, losing the first 8-2 and winning the second game 4-0.

The Twins lead the season series with the Tigers 6-3 and Minnesota has a plus-13 run differential in those meetings.

Twins at Tigers projected starters

RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Tarik Skubal 

Ober is 1-1 with a 3.25 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 6 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 10-7 home win vs. the Kansas City Royals Friday with 3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Tigers: No-decision in 7-1 home win April 28 with 3 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 3 K.

Skubal is 3-2 with a 2.44 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 in 51 2/3 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in 4-3 home win vs. the Cleveland Guardians Thursday with 7 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB and 5 K.
  • 2022 vs. the Twins: No-decision in 7-1 loss at Minnesota April 28 with 5 IP, 5 ER (6 R), 7 H, 2 BB and 4 K.

Twins at Tigers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:58 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Twins -117 (bet $117 to win $100) | Tigers -103 (bet $103 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+145) | Tigers +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Twins at Tigers picks and predictions

Prediction

Twins 5, Tigers 3

Money line

BET the TWINS (-117) because they have a significant edge in hitting and most of the market is betting the Tigers, per Pregame.com, and I love the idea of fading a public team that’s 11 games below .500.

Detroit’s lineup is 29th in wOBA (.274) and dead-last in both wRC+ (78) and WAR (minus-0.8), according to FanGraphs. The Tigers are the only lineup that has a WAR below plus-1.5.

Minnesota’s lineup is ranked 8th or better in WAR (plus-8.0), wRC+ (112), wOBA (.321), hard-hit rate (42.1%) and BB/K rate (0.43).

Ober’s basic and advanced pitching numbers vs. the Tigers are better than Skubal’s against the Twins. Ober has a better hard-hit rate, exit velocity, whiff rate and chase rate than Skubal according to Statcast.

Minnesota has won 4 consecutive Ober starts and 4 consecutive Ober starts vs. American League Central foes.

BET 1 unit on the TWINS (-117).

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Run line/Against the spread

LEAN TWINS -1.5 (+145) because the gap between these two lineups is massive and 3 of Detroit’s 4 losses in Skubal starts have been by at least 5 runs.

Minnesota’s bullpen also has better swing-and-miss and contact rates and Detroit’s second-best bullpen ERA (2.91) is due in large part to a fortunate .249 BABIP (ranked 29th).

Minnesota’s ML is my favorite wager in this game but there’s some value in the TWINS -1.5 (+145).

Over/Under

PASS.

This feels like a sharp total, Comerica Park is a very hitter-friendly 6th in park factor but the Tigers are 0-4-1 O/U in Skubal’s 5 starts.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (57-73) and Detroit Tigers (62-69) meet Monday for a makeup of a July 16 postponement. First pitch is set for 2:10 p.m. ET at Comerica Park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Bailey Ober is the projected starting pitcher for the Twins. He is 1-2 with a 4.06 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 9.4 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9 through 68 2/3 IP across

  • Is coming off 5 scoreless innings in his last start and owns a 2.78 ERA in the second half.
  • Struggled in a July 10 outing against Detroit: 3 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 2 home runs allowed.

RHP Casey Mize is the projected starting pitcher for the Tigers. He is 7-6 with a 3.55 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 7.0 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 over 129 1/3 IP in 24 starts.

  • Pitched 5 scoreless innings against the St. Louis Cardinals in his last start. That turn came after posting a 6.08 ERA over his previous three starts.
  • Has benefited from a .253 batting average on balls in play.

Twins at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:29 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS:  Twins -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Twins 5, Tigers 3

Money line (ML)

The Twins are coming off a weekend home stand against the Milwaukee Brewers where they took two of three games and will be returning to Minneapolis for a two-game interleague set against the Chicago Cubs after Monday’s contest in the Motor City.

The Tigers dropped two of three games against the Toronto Blue Jays over the weekend and are in the middle of a seven-game stretch on home turf. Bengal pitching has been solid of late as they’ve recorded a 3.35 ERA in August, but Detroit has gone just 12-12 because of a slumping offense that has a .662 OPS along that span.

The Twins and Tigers have thus far played a taut season series. Minnesota is up eight games to seven and is a plus-9 in run differential.

With Ober as a starter to leverage and Mize an opposing mounds-man to fade, and with the two clubs having some slack to match in their records (favoring Minnesota and knocking Detroit), TAKE THE TWINS (-135).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

More play in the numbers reveals the Minnesota bullpen to be undervalued. The opposite holds true for the Tigers offense, which has benefited from some inflated BABIP figures in clutch situations.

Bettors willing to take on the risk of the run-line proposition should CONSIDER ACTION ON MINNESOTA -1.5 (+115).

Over/Under (O/U)

The lean here is on the Under, but it would be best to avoid the pricing on that premium at 9.5 runs. PASS.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (39-52) and Detroit Tigers (42-51) close out their three-game series Sunday at Comerica Park. The first pitch of the series finale is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Detroit swept Saturday’s doubleheader, shutting out Minnesota 1-0 in the opener (7 innings) and taking the nightcap 5-4 in extra frames (8 innings).

Season series: Twins lead 7-4.

LHP J.A. Happ is Minnesota’s projected starter. Happ is 5-4 with a 5.90 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 54 ER), 1.48 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 across 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 7 IP, 3 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 8 K vs. Detroit July 8.
  • Happ is 1-0 against the Tigers this season with a 3.27 ERA (11 IP, 4 ER), 11 H, 4 BB and 12 K in two starts.
    • vs. Tigers on the current roster: 128 at-bats with a .281/.336/.406 slash line, 34/9 K/BB, 3 HR and 7 RBIs.

RHP Wily Peralta is on the mound for the Tigers. Peralta is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA (26 IP, 6 ER), 0.89 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 5.5 K/9 over five starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Detroit’s 12-9 loss at Minnesota July 11 with 5 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 2 K.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 51 at-bats with a .177/.259/.275 slash line, 8/6 K/BB, 1 HR and 2 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Twins at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:41 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Tigers +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+115) | Tigers +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 10 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Tigers 8, Twins 5

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Tigers (+115) First 5 Innings since I “lean” to Detroit’s First 5 Innings run line and because Happ has been terrible on the road this season. Happ is 1-3 with an 8.29 ERA (33 2/3 IP, 31 ER), 1.78 WHIP and 3.4 K/BB rate in seven road starts.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Happ has the fifth-highest home run per nine-inning rate amongst qualified starters (minimum of 80 IP) and grades out in the 18th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, expected wOBA, expected slugging percentage, exit velocity, whiff rate and barrel rate.

“LEAN” to the TIGERS +0.5 (-120) FIRST 5 INNINGS for a half unit because Detroit’s lineup can do damage to Happ and Peralta exited his previous start against the Twins after the fifth inning with a 4-1 lead before Minnesota’s lineup nuked Detroit’s bullpen.

Over/Under (O/U)

The OVER 10 (-115) for 1 unit is my favorite play in Twins-Tigers partially because there’s been “sharp line movement” towards the Over as it’s been juiced up to -115 since the opener.

Also, these teams have a combined 14-6 O/U record when these starters are on the mound (Twins are 11-4 O/U in Happ starts) and Minnesota has played to the highest rate of Overs in division games and road games.

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Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Game 1 odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers Game 1 odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Minnesota Twins (39-50) and Detroit Tigers (40-51) start their three-game series with the first game of a seven-inning doubleheader Saturday at Comerica Park in Detroit. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Twins vs. Tigers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This originally was slated to be a four-game series but Friday’s doubleheader was rained out and only one of those games will be made up this weekend.

Season series: Twins lead 7-2.

LHP Charlie Barnes makes his MLB debut Saturday for the Twins. The 25-year-old lefty was a fourth-round pick for Minnesota in the 2017 MLB Draft.

In Triple-A this season, Barnes was 5-2 with a 3.88 ERA (58 IP, 25 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 across 11 starts.

RHP Jose Urena is Detroit’s projected starter. Urena is 2-8 with a 6.43 ERA (77 IP, 55 ER), 1.69 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 5.8 K/9 across 16 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 10-5, with 4 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 4 BB and 3 K at the Texas Rangers July 6.
  • Urena is 0-1 vs. the Twins this year with an 8.59 ERA (7 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 13 H, 6 BB and 8 K in two starts.
  • vs. Twins on the current roster: 44 at-bats with a .341/.420/.523 slash line, 11/6 K/BB, 2 HR and 8 RBIs.

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Twins at Tigers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:46 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Twins -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Tigers +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Twins -1.5 (+135) | Tigers +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Twins 6, Tigers 3

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the TWINS (-120) for a half unit since Urena is having an awful season with pitching peripherals as terrible as his basic numbers and Detroit’s lineup struggles against left-handed pitching.

For instance, the Tigers rank in the bottom 8 of the majors vs. lefty pitching in advanced hitting categories such as wRC+, wOBA, OPS and BB/K.

Furthermore, Urena has a 6.41 FIP against current Twins hitters with a .410 expected wOBA, .570 expected slugging percentage and 91.1 mph exit velocity.

We don’t really know what we are getting from Barnes since it’s his major league debut but you could argue that Urena should be optioned to the minor leagues based on his 2021 first-half performance.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t see any value in taking the Twins -1.5 (+135) when their starter is making his first-ever big league start, this being a seven-inning game and Minnesota having the worst run line record in MLB (34-55 ATS).

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the OVER 7.5 (-115) for a half unit because I prefer the Minnesota side more than the total.

However, since I don’t have much confidence in either starter, both bullpens rank in the bottom 7 of WAR and the Twins have a league-high 70.0% Over percentage in division games (28-12-3 O/U).

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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