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The Minnesota Twins (70-55) and San Diego Padres (71-55) meet Tuesday night in the middle game of their 3-game series. First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Twins vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: Padres lead 1-0
The Twins lost the series opener Monday night 5-3 and have lost 2 games in a row after a 3-game winning streak. They are 2 1/2 games behind the Cleveland Guardians for the AL Central lead and currently in a Wild Card spot.
The Padres, 3 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers for the NL West lead and in the NL’s top Wild Card spot, are 12-3 in their last 15 games. But they lost 2 of 3 games on the road against the Colorado Rockies before Monday’s series-opening win.
Twins at Padres projected starters
RHP Bailey Ober vs. LHP Martin Perez
Ober (12-5, 3.49 ERA) makes his 24th start. He has a 1.00 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 134 IP.
- Last start: No decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 3 BB, 3 K in 3-2 road win over Texas Rangers on Thursday
- Is 4-0 with 1.59 ERA over last 5 starts (34 IP)
- Career vs. Padres: 0-0, 4.50 ERA (6 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 0BB, 6 K) in 1 start
Perez (3-5, 4.62 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 101 1/3 IP.
- Last start: Win. 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 8-2 home win over Pittsburgh Pirates on Wednesday
- Is 1-0 with 1.96 ERA in 3 starts since acquired by Padres
- Is 0-4 with 5.40 ERA in 12 career games (7 starts) vs. Twins
Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.
Twins at Padres odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:57 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Twins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Padres -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
- Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Twins -1.5 (+150) | Padres +1.5 (-185)
- Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Tiwns at Padres picks and predictions
Prediction
Twins 4, Padres 3
Moneyline
The Padres have been red-hot and Perez has been good since the Padres acquired him, but Ober has been excellent. He has not allowed more than 2 runs in his last 5 starts, all wins for the Twins.
The Twins have not lost 3 games in a row since the All-Star break.
The Padres have not been as good at home (34-29) as they have been on the road (37-26). If the Padres are going to lose a game this series, this game is the one.
BET TWINS (-115).
Run line/Against the spread
The Twins have won by 2 or more runs in 4 of Ober’s last 5 starts and by 2 or more runs in 8 of the last 9 of his starts in which they have won.
But 2 of their last 3 wins have been by 1 run and 2 of the 3 losses the Padres have head in their last 15 games have been by 1 run.
With 2 starters pitching extremely well and 2 teams looking like playoff teams, don’t get greedy with the +150 odds for the Twins to cover the -1.5.
PASS.
Over/Under
The Twins’ last 3 wins and 4 of their last 6 games have stayed Under 8 total runs. Ober’s last 2 starts and 3 of his last 4 have also stayed Under 8.
Three of the Padres’ last 7 games have not reached 8 total runs.
BET UNDER 7.5 (-105).
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