Florida State at Michigan NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 Odds, Picks and Prediction

A spot in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament will go to either the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (20-4) or the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (16-6) when the teams meet in a East Region bracket matchup.

A spot in the Elite 8 of the NCAA Tournament will go to either the No. 1 Michigan Wolverines (20-4) or the No. 4 Florida State Seminoles (16-6) when the teams meet in a East Region bracket matchup. Oddsmakers think Michigan will claim victory, naming the Wolverines as 2.5-point favorites. The action starts at 5:00 PM ET on Sunday at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, airing on CBS.

The Wolverines were led by Chaundee Brown’s 21 points last time out in an 86-78 win against LSU on Monday. They covered the spread as 4.5-point favorites, while the teams scored a combined 164 points to hit the over on the 148 over/under.

Last time out, Anthony Polite scored 22 points as the Seminoles earned a 71-53 win against Colorado on Monday. The teams combined to score 124 points to hit the under on the 141.5 point total by sportsbooks, while the Seminoles were 1-point favorites and covered the spread.

Florida State at Michigan: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list.
Lines last updated at 3:30 PM ET on March 28, 2021.

  • Money line: Florida State +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Michigan -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Florida State +2.5 (-110) | Michigan -2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 142.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Michigan: Three things to know

  • The Wolverines points and rebounds leader is Hunter Dickinson. He puts up 14.2 points per game and grabs 7.5 rebounds. Isaiah Livers is the top three-point shooter for the team, knocking down 2.2 per game.
  • The Wolverines record 76.8 points per game, 7.9 more points than the 68.9 the Seminoles allow.
  • When Michigan puts up more than 68.9 points, it is 17-0 against the spread and 20-0 overall.

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Florida State: Three things to know

  • M.J. Walker leads the Seminoles in scoring, averaging 12.3 points per game. Walker leads the squad with a team-high 1.9 made three-pointers per game.
  • The Seminoles put up an average of 78 points per game, 12.1 more points than the 65.9 the Wolverines give up.
  • Florida State is 13-0 against the spread and 17-5 overall when it scores more than 65.9 points.

Florida State at Michigan: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Michigan 74, Florida State 71

Money line

The model and BetMGM both have the Michigan Wolverines as the favorite in this matchup.

Against the spread (ATS)

The model and MGM both have the Wolverines taking home the victory, but the model has them winning by slightly more (3 points). Lean towards taking the Wolverines with the points.

Over/Under (O/U)

MGM and the model are extremely close in their point total projections for this game, with the model just coming Over the projected total.

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March Madness: Michigan vs. Florida State odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Sunday’s Michigan Wolverines vs. Florida State Seminoles odds and lines, with March Madness Sweet 16 picks and predictions.

The top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (22-4) take on the No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles (18-6) in an East Region Sweet 16 game Sunday. Tip-off is slated for 5 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ Bankers Life Fieldhouse and will be aired on CBS. Below, we analyze the Michigan-Florida State odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.

The Wolverines beat No. 16 seed Texas Southern 82-66 in the first round and fended off eighth-seeded LSU 86-78 in their next game. While they didn’t cover the 24.5-point spread in the opener, the Big Ten regular-season champs covered as 4-point favorites vs. LSU.

Michigan is without senior F Isaiah Livers, who suffered a season-ending stress fracture in his foot in UM’s Big Ten Tournament opener. Livers started all 23 games he played this season, averaging 13.1 PPG and 6.0 RPG, while hitting a team-best 50 3-pointers (shooting 43.1% behind the arc).

Junior F Brandon Johns Jr. has started in Livers’ place. He has averaged 9.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG in Michigan’s two tourney games, while senior G Eli Brooks averaged a team-high 16.0 PPG and Big Ten Freshman of the Year C Hunter Dickinson chipped in 14.0 PPG.

FSU defeated 13th-seeded UNC Greensboro 64-54 in the first round but came up a “hook” short as a 10-point favorite. The Seminoles had no problem covering as 1-point faves in their next game, cruising past No. 5 seed Colorado 71-53.

Junior F RaiQuan Gray‘s 17 points and 7 rebounds led the way in the opener, while  junior G Anthony Polite knocked down a game-high 22 points vs. Colorado and is averaging a team-best 17.0 PPG in the tourney.

Michigan is ranked No. 4 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. Florida State is 14th.

The winner advances to a Tuesday Elite Eight showdown against either second-seeded Alabama or 11th-seeded UCLA, who also play Sunday.

Michigan vs. Florida State: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Michigan -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Florida State +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Michigan -2.5 (-110) | Florida State +2.5 (-110)
  • Over/Under: 143.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Michigan vs. Florida State: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Florida State 72, Michigan 69

Money line (ML)

Bet a HALF-UNIT on FLORIDA STATE (+125). The Big Ten, which had nine teams make the tourney, has been a total flop as Michigan is the only  team remaining. Behind that trend and with Livers out, there’s no reason to believe the Wolverines don’t get shown the door like the rest of their Big Ten peers.

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Against the spread (ATS)

FLORIDA STATE +2.5 (-110) is the way to go. Losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC title game might be the best thing that could have happened to the Seminoles.

They’re refocused and now get the chance to avenge a 58-54 Elite Eight game 2018 loss to Michigan.

ATS records: Michigan 18-8 | Florida State 12-10-2

Over/Under (O/U)

The UNDER 143.5 (-110) is also worth a HALF-UNIT bet. FSU allowed 53.5 PPG in its two tourney games. Michigan’s offense averaged 84.0 PPG in its two tourney wins, but this isn’t against Texas Southern or LSU.

O/U records: Michigan 11-15 | Florida State 14-8-2

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JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD W-L SP ROI
College hoops since Jan. 1 73-65-1 34-36 +2.175
2021 record (all sports) 93-79-1 46-39 +12.5
*SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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