The top-seeded Michigan Wolverines (22-4) take on the No. 4 seed Florida State Seminoles (18-6) in an East Region Sweet 16 game Sunday. Tip-off is slated for 5 p.m. ET at Indianapolis’ Bankers Life Fieldhouse and will be aired on CBS. Below, we analyze the Michigan-Florida State odds and lines, with March Madness NCAA Tournament picks and predictions.
The Wolverines beat No. 16 seed Texas Southern 82-66 in the first round and fended off eighth-seeded LSU 86-78 in their next game. While they didn’t cover the 24.5-point spread in the opener, the Big Ten regular-season champs covered as 4-point favorites vs. LSU.
Michigan is without senior F Isaiah Livers, who suffered a season-ending stress fracture in his foot in UM’s Big Ten Tournament opener. Livers started all 23 games he played this season, averaging 13.1 PPG and 6.0 RPG, while hitting a team-best 50 3-pointers (shooting 43.1% behind the arc).
Junior F Brandon Johns Jr. has started in Livers’ place. He has averaged 9.0 PPG and 3.5 RPG in Michigan’s two tourney games, while senior G Eli Brooks averaged a team-high 16.0 PPG and Big Ten Freshman of the Year C Hunter Dickinson chipped in 14.0 PPG.
FSU defeated 13th-seeded UNC Greensboro 64-54 in the first round but came up a “hook” short as a 10-point favorite. The Seminoles had no problem covering as 1-point faves in their next game, cruising past No. 5 seed Colorado 71-53.
Junior F RaiQuan Gray‘s 17 points and 7 rebounds led the way in the opener, while junior G Anthony Polite knocked down a game-high 22 points vs. Colorado and is averaging a team-best 17.0 PPG in the tourney.
Michigan is ranked No. 4 in the Ferris Mowers Coaches Poll powered by USA TODAY Sports. Florida State is 14th.
The winner advances to a Tuesday Elite Eight showdown against either second-seeded Alabama or 11th-seeded UCLA, who also play Sunday.
Michigan vs. Florida State: Odds, spread and lines
Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 7:10 a.m. ET.
- Money line: Michigan -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Florida State +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
- Against the spread/ATS: Michigan -2.5 (-110) | Florida State +2.5 (-110)
- Over/Under: 143.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Michigan vs. Florida State: Odds, lines, predictions and picks
Prediction
Florida State 72, Michigan 69
Money line (ML)
Bet a HALF-UNIT on FLORIDA STATE (+125). The Big Ten, which had nine teams make the tourney, has been a total flop as Michigan is the only team remaining. Behind that trend and with Livers out, there’s no reason to believe the Wolverines don’t get shown the door like the rest of their Big Ten peers.
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Against the spread (ATS)
FLORIDA STATE +2.5 (-110) is the way to go. Losing to Georgia Tech in the ACC title game might be the best thing that could have happened to the Seminoles.
They’re refocused and now get the chance to avenge a 58-54 Elite Eight game 2018 loss to Michigan.
ATS records: Michigan 18-8 | Florida State 12-10-2
Over/Under (O/U)
The UNDER 143.5 (-110) is also worth a HALF-UNIT bet. FSU allowed 53.5 PPG in its two tourney games. Michigan’s offense averaged 84.0 PPG in its two tourney wins, but this isn’t against Texas Southern or LSU.
O/U records: Michigan 11-15 | Florida State 14-8-2
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| JOHNNY PARLAY’S RECORD | W-L | SP | ROI |
| College hoops since Jan. 1 | 73-65-1 | 34-36 | +2.175 |
| 2021 record (all sports) | 93-79-1 | 46-39 | +12.5 |
| *–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment | |||
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