Tag: Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (48-84) and Colorado Rockies (49-84) play the 3rd game of a 4-game set at Coors Field Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 4-1

After losing the Monday opener 3-2 as +104 underdogs, the Marlins bounced back with a 9-8 win as +132 underdogs Tuesday with the Over (11.5) easily cashing. Miami scored 5 runs in the 9th after entering the inning with a 1.1% win probabilty, according to ESPN Analytics, trailing 8-4.

The Rockies led by as many as 6 runs in the 2nd inning. It was the 2nd time this season that Colorado has blown a lead of 5 or more runs to the Marlins — the other was a 7-6 Miami home win in 10 innings April 30.

The Marlins and Rockies own the worst and 2nd-worst records, respectively, in the NL.

Marlins at Rockies projected starters

RHP Max Meyer vs. LHP Kyle Freeland

Meyer (3-3, 5.44 ERA) makes his 10th start. The rookie has a 1.36 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 46 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-3 home victory vs. Chicago Cubs Friday
  • 2024 road stats: 1-2, 5.68 ERA (19 IP, 12 ER), 1.42 WHIP, 7.6 K/9 in 4 starts
  • Has never faced Rockies

Freeland (3-6, 5.70 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.49 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 7.1 K/9 in 79 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER (3 R), 5 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 3-0 defeat at New York Yankees Friday
  • 2024 home stats: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (37 1/3 IP, 16 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 7 starts
  • Career vs. Marlins: 2-0, 3.60 ERA (25 IP, 10 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 7.2 K/9 in 6 appearances (4 starts), including 0-0 with 3.60 ERA (5 IP, 2 ER) in 1 start last year

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Marlins at Rockies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:37 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rockies -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-190) | Rockies -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 11 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Rockies 5, Marlins 4

Moneyline

Colorado (-130) will probably win with Freeland taking the mound. However, I wouldn’t want to pay more than -120 on the Rockies. Freeland has allowed 3 ER or fewer in 4 of his last 5 starts overall and 2 ER in each of his last 2 outings against Miami.

PASS on the ML. Bet KYLE FREELAND UNDER 3.5 EARNED RUNS (-140).

Run line/Against the spread

Miami +1.5 (-190) will likely cover the run line, but it’s hard to stay profitable long term betting into lines with this much vig.

PASS. Bet Freeland’s ER prop and/or the total instead.

Over/Under

While Freeland’s ER prop is somewhat of a derivative of the full-game total, the Under is still a good bet at this number. Freeland has allowed a total of just 4 runs in 18 2/3 IP over his last 3 starts, and the Rockies have scored 3 or fewer in 8 of their last 10 games.

BET UNDER 11 (-115).

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Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (19-27) face the Colorado Rockies (22-26) Tuesday in the 2nd of their 3-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Colorado won Monday’s series opener 7-1 thanks to a 4-run 7th and a 3-run 8th after Miami SP Pablo Lopez exited the game with a 1-0 lead.

Season series: Colorado leads 1-0.

Marlins at Rockies projected starters

RHP Edward Cabrera (projected, not official) vs. RHP German Marquez

Miami has yet to officially announce a starter but Cabrera is expected to make his major league debut Tuesday.

  • 2022 Minor League stats: 1-2 with a 3.90 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 4.9 BB/9 and 12.7 K/9 in 27 2/3 IP over 6 starts while pitching for Miami’s Triple-A and Single-A affiliates.

Marquez is 1-5 with a 6.30 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 50 IP over 9 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 7-3 Thursday at the Washington Nationals with 6 IP, 5 ER, 6 H, 3 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Marlins: One start, a 14-2 home win Aug. 6 with 6-scoreless IP, 2 H, 1 BB and 7 K.

Marlins at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:02 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | Rockies -135 (bet $100 to win $135)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (-175) | Rockies -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

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Marlins at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Rockies 6, Marlins 3

Money line

LEAN ROCKIES (-135) only because the Marlins (+110) have a much more reliable bullpen and Miami’s lineup is far more productive vs. right-handed pitching than Colorado’s.

But, Coors Field is the most notorious hitter-friendly ballpark and one of the worst venues for a rookie pitcher to make his MLB debut. Also, the Rockies are 15-11 overall at home while the Marlins are 6-11 as road underdogs.

Lastly, Marquez’s numbers are due for progress up to the mean because his FIP (4.54) is nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA (6.30) and he was an All-Star last season so he’s proven he can hang in the big leagues.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Rockies -1.5 (+140) are just 6-7 RL as home favorites, Marquez is off to the worst start in his career and Colorado’s bullpen is atrocious while the Marlins +1.5 (-175) are 12-5 RL as road underdogs.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 10.5 (-112) only because of Colorado’s aforementioned pitching woes, the Rockies are 6-3 O/U in Marquez’s 9 starts and 9-4 O/U as home favorites and because the Over has cashed in 4 of the past 5 Marlins-Rockies meetings.

However, this Under being more expensive despite the starting pitching matchup suggests the oddsmakers are laying a trap for bettors taking the Over.

The UNDER 10.5 (-112) is my favorite wager in the Marlins-Rockies since the public doesn’t usually bet Unders at Coors Field.

Also, the weather forecast is predicting a cool night in Denver (temperatures in the low-to-mid-50s) with double-digit mph winds blowing in from center field.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Colorado Rockies (21-26) host the Miami Marlins (19-26) Monday at Coors Field for the 1st of their 3-game set. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami is 3-7 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games. It has lost 4 of the last 5 games, including Sunday’s 6-3 loss in the rubber match of a 3-game set at the Atlanta Braves.

Colorado is also 3-7 SU in the last 10 and has lost 7 consecutive series with the last 2 coming against the Washington Nationals and Pittsburgh Pirates, both of whom are in last place in their respective divisions.

The Memorial Day game is their first meeting this season. The Rockies were 4-2 SU last season vs. the Marlins and swept the 3-game set in Colorado. The Rockies outscored the Marlins by 20 (34-14) in that series.

Marlins at Rockies projected starters

RHP Pablo Lopez vs. RHP Ryan Feltner 

Lopez is 4-2 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 in 53 IP across 9 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 4-0 Tuesday at the Tampa Bay Rays with 7 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 3 HR, 0 BB and 9 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Rockies: One start, a 6-2 home win June 8 with 8 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 8 K.

Feltner is 0-1 with a 5.40 ERA (10 IP, 6 ER), 10 H, 1 HR, 4 BB and 14 K in 2 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision in Wednesday’s 10-5 loss at the Pittsburgh Pirates with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 7 K.

Marlins at Rockies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:33 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins -155 (bet $155 to win $100) | Rockies +125 (bet $100 to win $125)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+102) | Rockies +1.5 (-125)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Rockies picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Rockies 4

Money line

RISK 1 unit on the MARLINS (-155) instead of betting 1 unit because of the price and the Rockies (+125) play much better at Coors Field. But Miami has a 3-phase edge over Colorado in starting and relief pitching and hitting.

Lopez’s fastball-changeup combination has been gnarly this season and he ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate and 86th percentile in whiff rate, according to Statcast.

Also, Colorado’s bullpen is last in ERA (5.10) whereas Miami’s bullpen has a 3.23 ERA (ranked 6th), 33.6% outside-the-zone swing rate (6th) and 13.2% swinging-strike rate (4th), per FanGraphs.

Finally, Miami’s lineup ranks 4th in wRC+ (113) and 5th in wOBA (.326) vs. right-handed pitching while Colorado has an 85 wRC+ (ranked 26th), according to FanGraphs.

If your standard unit is $100 then risk that on the MARLINS (-155) to earn a $64 profit since the Rockies (+125) are a much different team in Coors Field.

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS. 

The Marlins -1.5 (+102) are 1-5 RL as road favorites and Miami has lost 4 of Lopez’s last 5 starts despite his All-Star-caliber form and the Rockies +1.5 (-125) are 7-5 RL as home underdogs.

Over/Under

PASS.

Miami’s pitching staff is one of the best in baseball but Coors Field is a launching pad and Colorado’s bullpen is terrible. Also, the Marlins are 9-14 O/U on the road and the Rockies are 14-11 O/U at home. There isn’t a lot of value on either side of this 10.5-run total.

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Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

After suffering a 14-2 drubbing Friday night, the Miami Marlins (47-63) hope to even the series against the Colorado Rockies  (49-61) Saturday night in the second of their three-game series. First pitch for tonight’s game at Coors Field is 8:10 p.m. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo (3-4, 6.70 ERA) makes his eighth start of the year but only his second for Miami. He has a 1.61 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 43 IP.

  • He was acquired in the trade that sent OF Starling Marte to the Oakland A’s before the trade deadline.
  • He picked up the win in his debut with the Marlins Monday, pitching five innings and allowing three runs in a 7-4 win over the New York Mets.

Rockies LHP Austin Gomber (8-6, 4.04 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.11 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 91 1/3 IP.

  • He lasted only an inning in his last start while allowing four runs on four hits and two walks. He had won five straight decisions before that, and the Rockies had won five of his six previous starts.
  • He faced the Marlins June 9 and scattered five hits over five innings allowing only one run. He picked up the decision in a 4-3 win.

Marlins at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:30 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Rockies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-150) | Rockies -1.5 (+120)
  • Over/Under: 10.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Rockies 6, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

Miami is 20-36 on the road this season and has lost seven of their last 10 road games.

Meanwhile, the Rockies play very well at home. They are 36-21 at Coors Field this season. They have the league’s third-highest home winning percentage and are tied for the second-most home wins. They have won four of their last five home games.

Take the ROCKIES (-160).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Miami is 58-51 ATS this season and 29-26 ATS on the road. They are 9-6 ATS in their last 15 games.

The Rockies are 58-52 ATS overall this season and have the best home cover percentage in all of baseball at 61.4% and beat the spread by an average of 1.3 runs at home. They are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.

Take the ROCKIES -1.5 (+120).

Over/Under (O/U)

Despite the reputation for high-scoring games, Coors Field only has a 43.6% Over percentage this season, the fifth-lowest in the majors.

Friday night’s game went Over, and three of the Rockies’ first four games of their homestand have finished with 11 or more runs.

Only two of the last 10 games for the Marlins have finished with totals of 11 runs or more.

Take UNDER 10.5 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (47-62) visit the Colorado Rockies (48-61) Friday to start a three-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami took three of four against the New York Mets earlier this week following a four-game losing skid and is 5-5 in its last 10 games.

Colorado is also 5-5 in the past 10 games and has won four of the past six games including two games of a three-game series vs. the Chicago Cubs.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-1.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 6-9 with a 3.12 ERA (132 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No decision in a 3-1 loss, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K Sunday against the New York Yankees.
  • 2021 road splits: 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB in 11 starts.

RHP German Marquez makes his 23rd start for the Rockies. Marquez is 9-8 with a 3.58 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Saturday at the San Diego Padres.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 13 starts.

Marlins at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rockies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Rockies -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Rockies 6, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) because Marquez and Colorado have been awesome at home while Alcantara and Miami have struggled on the road.

For instance, Marquez’s impressive home splits come despite him making his home starts at the launching pad of Coors Field. He’s allowed just four home runs this year at Coors, three less than he’s given up on the road, and Marquez has pitched 22 innings more at home.

Furthermore, the Rockies have the highest winning percentage as a home favorite (18-5 overall record) and the Marlins are just 17-26 as a road underdog.

Also, compare Alcantara’s road numbers above to these home splits: 2.58 home ERA, 0.94 home WHIP and a 4.2 K/BB at home with a .555 opponent’s home OPS (.712 opponent’s OPS on the road).

On top of that, according to Pregame.com Colorado’s money line has been steamed up from -143 at open to the current number so “sharp” money is backing the Rockies.

However, I can only “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) for a half unit at this price because it’s too far off the consensus market. Several books are offering Colorado’s money line in the -155 to -160 range.

Perhaps Tipico is ahead of the market or has more liability with the Rockies than other sportsbooks but I cannot ignore the price difference. Hopefully, Tipico is just offering a “sharp” money line because at least I’d feel better about my Colorado “lean”.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager if at all because all six of Marquez’s wins at home have been by at least 2 runs.

However, I wouldn’t bet Colorado’s run line too heavily because Miami is 26-17 ATS as a road dog and the Rockies are 11-12 ATS as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-107) for light wager for trendy reasons such as these teams being a combined 16-24 O/U with these starters on the mound, Miami’s 19-22-2 O/U record as a road dog and Colorado is 8-15 O/U as a home favorite.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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