Tag: Miami Marlins vs. Chicago Cubs odds predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Miami Marlins (4-15) and Chicago Cubs (11-7) open a 4-game series at Wrigley Field Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: First meeting; Marlins won 4-2 last season

The Cubs finished their 3-game series with the Arizona Diamondbacks Wednesday, winning 5-3 as +113 underdogs in the final matchup. Chicago has played 9 straight games on the road and is 5-1 straight up at home. It is 13-5 against the spread (ATS) this season.

The Marlins lost to the San Francisco Giants 3-1 Wednesday, failing to pull off the upset as +103 underdogs. They have lost 3 of their last 4 games and closed as underdogs in 12 straight. Miami is 6-13 ATS.

Marlins at Cubs projected starters

LHP AJ Puk vs. RHP Jameson Taillon

Puk (0-3, 5.91 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 2.44 WHIP, 11.8 BB/9 and 6.7 K/9 in 10 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 5 BB, 2 K in 3-2 road loss to New York Yankees April 9
  • Marlins have been outscored 20-6 in his 3 starts
  • 2023 road splits: 3-2, 2.22 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 16 H, 4 BB, 27 K in 24 relief appearances

Taillon (8-10, 4.84 ERA in 2023) makes his 1st start of 2024. He had a 1.28 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 in 154 1/3 innings in 2023.

  • Cubs were 12-18 in his 30 appearances last season
  • 2023 home splits: 4-6, 4.62 ERA (78 IP, 40 ER), 92 H, 19 BB, 78 K in 15 starts

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Marlins at Cubs odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins +132 (bet $100 to win $132) | Cubs -156 (bet $156 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Cubs -1.5 (+132)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -118 | U: -104)

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Marlins at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Cubs 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Cubs (-156) are fine to play on the moneyline here, but the preferred value for this one is on the spread.

Run line/Against the spread

BET CUBS -1.5 (+132).

The Cubs are the best team ATS in MLB, having covered in 13 of 18 games. The Marlins, on the other hand, are the worst team ATS in MLB at 6-13. They are 6-6 ATS as underdogs, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS as a favorite.

Puk has struggled immensely, and the Marlins have typically been blown out in his starts. While Taillon is making his 1st start, he is a veteran and should be able to perform well.

The Cubs are also 4-2 ATS at home. Considering those trends and given the plus-money value on the home favorites, back CUBS -1.5 (+132).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-118).

The Cubs have gone Over in 9 of 18 games and tallied 16 runs in their last 2. They have scored at least 8 runs in 7 of 18 games as well.

The Marlins are 11-8 O/U on the season and have alternated going Over and Under in 7 straight games. Miami has gone Over in 2 of Puk’s 3 starts.

Back OVER 7.5 (-118).

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Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Marlins (16-18) wrap up a 3-game road series with the Chicago Cubs (17-16) Sunday. First pitch from Wrigley Field is at 2:20 ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 3-2

The Cubs won 4-2 Saturday. Chicago entered the 8th inning down 2-1 before 3B Nick Madrigal hit a 2-run single to secure the victory and get the home team within 1 game from a series sweep. Chicago has only swept the lowly Oakland Athletics so far this season but has rebounded nicely since returning home Friday after a 1-6 road trip.

The Marlins have dropped 5 straight games since a 3-game sweep of the Cubs between April-28-30. They were swept by the Braves before coming to Wrigley Field but they can still get it done and manufacture runs with above-average base stealing.

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Marlins at Cubs projected starters

RHP Sandy Alcantara vs. RHP Hayden Wesneski

Alcantara (1-3, 5.09 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 7.9 K/9 through 35 1/3 IP.

  • Last start:  Loss, 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 3 B, 5 K vs. Atlanta Braves Tuesday
  • .315 OBA when the batter swings at the 1st pitch and .190 OBA when batters take the 1st pitch in 2023

Wesneski (2-1, 4.45 ERA) makes his 7th start. He has a 1.38 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 5.4 K/9 through 28 1/3 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 0 BB, 2 K at Washington Nationals Tuesday
  • 1.97 WHIP at home vs 1.02 WHIP on the road

Marlins at Cubs odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:30 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Cubs -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+150) | Cubs +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Marlins at Cubs picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 4, Cubs 1

Moneyline

The Marlins haven’t had trouble making contact but they have been unlucky on the base paths. Miami has grounded into a league-leading 35 double plays.

Miami has only been swept once this season and prevented a sweep twice in a series finale.

BET MARLINS (-115).

Run line/Against the spread

The Marlins are tied for the league’s 2nd worst run line covering percentage, going 12-22 ATS (35.3%), they are a league-worst 6-9 ATS (40.0%) on the road and are the 2nd worst in the league after a loss (5-12 ATS, 29.4%).

AVOID.

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Over/Under

The Marlins’ recent trends lean toward the Over. They are 4-0 in their last 4 road games against a right-hander and 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a starter with at least a 1.30 WHIP.

However, I’m skeptical about Sunday’s Over. Miami is not an offensive juggernaut, scoring an MLB-worst 3.3 runs per game, and the Cubs have gone Under 4 games in a row after a win.

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (31-39) try to complete a three-game sweep of the host Chicago Cubs (39-32) Sunday at Wrigley Field. First pitch will be at 2:20 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami has pummelled Chicago in the first two games of the series, winning both games by a combined score of 21-3.

Marlins LF Adam Duvall has raked this series. He’s 5-for-8 with 4 home runs and 10 RBIs in the first two games.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-0.

RHP Zach Thompson makes his third career start for the Marlins. He is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA (8 IP, 2 ER), 1 BB and 7 K this year.

He lost his MLB debut against the Boston Red Sox but won his second start against the Atlanta Braves. He pitched 5 scoreless innings.

RHP Alec Mills is the projected starter for the Cubs. He is 2-1 with a 6.11 ERA (28 IP, 19 ER), 1.54 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 across two starts and 12 relief appearances.

  • Last outing: Loss, 3-2, with 4 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 6 K Tuesday at the New York Mets.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
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Marlins at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Cubs -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-155) | Cubs -1.5 (+125)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: +100 | U: -120)

Prediction

Marlins 7, Cubs 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS (+125) for a half unit since I like Miami’s First 5 Innings run line price given how poor Chicago’s pitching staff has looked recently.

For instance, the Cubs are giving Mills the start Sunday. He is used more as a reliever and is most likely setting up a “bullpen day”, but the Cubs bullpen is overworked and has stunk lately. Over the past week, Chicago’s bullpen is 26th in K-BB% and SIERA.

Also, Chicago’s lineup has also struggled over the last seven days. The Cubs are last in WAR and second-to-last in wOBA and wRC+ while having the highest K%.

Thompson was dialed in for his second start against the Braves’ stacked lineup, and he has to be confident coming into this one given how well his team has played through the first two games of the set.

Furthermore, more than 90% of the early morning money wagered has been on the Cubs, according to Pregame.com, which opens the door for a “contrarian play” against the market.

I’m OK fading such a lopsided market since I’d assume the Chicago backers are just doing so because the Cubs are a popular team, the Marlins are not and bettors refuse to believe Miami can sweep them.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS +0.5 (-115) on the FIRST 5 INNINGS line since we are getting a good price for a half-run worth of insurance on a pitching matchup favoring Miami.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS because of the limited data we have on Thompson and Chicago’s bullpen being far better than this recent stretch has indicated.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Chicago Cubs and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Chicago Cubs (39-30) host the Miami Marlins (29-39) Friday for the first game of their three-game series at Wrigley Field. First pitch will be at 8:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Cubs odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami had an off-day Thursday but was just swept in a three-game series at the St. Louis Cardinals and has lost four straight games.

Chicago had its five-game winning streak snapped earlier this week with three straight losses against the New York Mets but prevented a four-game sweep with a 2-0 win Thursday.

Season series: 0-0.

RHP Cody Poteet makes his sixth start for the Marlins. He is 2-2 with a 3.75 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 through 24 IP.

  • Last outing: Loss, 9-2, with 2 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H, 4 BB and 2 K June 4 at the Pittsburgh Pirates.

RHP Zach Davies takes the hill for the Cubs. Davies is 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA (67 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 5.7 K/9 across 14 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 2-0, with 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 2 BB and 6 K Sunday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 77 at-bats with a .312/.346/.390 slash line, 9/4 K/BB, 1 HR and 8 RBIs.

MLB betting offers/promotions

BetMGM Sportsbook offers available in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV and Washington D.C. New customer offers, terms and conditions apply.

  • Bet just $1 on either team’s money line, WIN $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a home run during the game. Bet now!
  • RISK-FREE FIRST BET. Place your first bet, if it loses you’ll get up to $600 in free bets. Bet now!

Marlins at Cubs odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:40 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Cubs -165 (bet $165 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-140) | Cubs -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Prediction

Cubs 5, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the CUBS (-165) for a half unit. Chicago’s bullpen has the second-highest WAR while the Marlins are eighth.

Davies has put it together for his past two starts, pitching 12 2/3 scoreless innings and giving up just 3 hits, 4 walks and striking out 10 batters.

Furthermore, the Cubs are first in the NL Central and were playing like one of the best teams in the league before running into an even hotter Mets team earlier this week. Chicago is 20-10 over the past 30 games.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

There were no odds listed at the time of writing.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 8.5 (-105) because both bullpens are top-tier units, Davies has been on-point lately and the Cubs’ recent hot streak is due to their pitching, not their hitting.

Over the last 30 days, Chicago’s lineup is a bottom-10 unit in WAR, wRC+ and wOBA, but the pitching staff has the best WAR and second-best FIP over that time span.

Additionally, both the Marlins and the Cubs played to the Under in four of their last five games.

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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