Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Marlins (47-34) and Boston Red Sox (40-41) wrap up their 3-game series on Thursday as Miami goes for the sweep in Boston. First pitch from Fenway Park will be at 6:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-0, outscoring the Red Sox 16-3

The Marlins are one of the hottest teams in baseball, winning their last 4 games and 18 of their last 25 to pull within 6 1/2 games of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. They won the 1st 2 games against the Red Sox in convincing fashion, 10-1 and 6-2.

The Red Sox are trending in the opposite direction, losing their last 4 games and 6 of their last 7 to fall below .500. They sit in last place in the AL East, 14 games back of the leading Tampa Bay Rays, despite scoring the 8th-most runs in MLB.

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Marlins at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Jesus Luzardo vs. RHP RHP Brayan Bello

Luzardo (6-5, 3.77 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 90 2/3 innings.

  • Was dominant in his last start: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 9 K and no-decision in a 3-1 loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Friday
  • He’s 2-2 with a 3.99 ERA this month

Bello (5-4, 3.27 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.27 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 in 66 innings.

  • Hasn’t allowed more than 3 ER in a start since 1st start in April
  • Has a 2.36 ERA in June, allowing just 7 ER in 26 2/3 IP

Marlins at Red Sox odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Marlins -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Red Sox -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+140) | Red Sox +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Marlins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 5, Red Sox 3

Moneyline

It was surprising to see the Red Sox initially open as the slight favorites in this matchup, given the way they’ve played as of late. Bello should be their stopper during this 4-game losing skid, but the Marlins are red hot.

Luzardo was outstanding in his last start against the Pirates and I expect him to have similar success against Boston. BET MARLINS (-115) to win outright.

Run line/Against the spread

Only 2 of the Marlins’ last 10 wins have been by 1 run, so they’ve done a nice job of beating their opponents in fairly dominant fashion with 2 wins by 9-plus runs. I like the value of taking Miami to win by at least a couple of runs, as it did in the first 2 games of the series.

BET MARLINS -1.5 (+140).

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Over/Under

According to Covers, the Under is 5-0 in the Marlins’ last 5 games when scoring at least 5 runs in their previous game. It’s also 7-0 in the Red Sox’s last 7 games when allowing at least 5 runs in their previous game.

I think the Marlins will come back down to earth a little bit against Bello after scoring 10 runs on Wednesday. BET UNDER 9 (-105).

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Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Miami Marlins at Boston Red Sox odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (46-34) and Boston Red Sox (40-40) meet Wednesday for the 2nd game of a 3-game interleague set at Fenway Park. First pitch is slated for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Marlins vs. Red Sox odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Marlins lead 1-0

In Tuesday’s lid-lifter, Miami drubbed Boston 10-1. The victory marked the Marlins 3rd in a row and their 5th in a row on the road. Miami has allowed just 2.42 runs per game in going 9-3 since June 14.

The Red Sox have lost 3 in a row and 5 of their last 6. Over those half-dozen games, Boston has managed just 2.17 runs per game on a .548 OPS, while the pitching staff has posted a 5.19 ERA.

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Marlins at Red Sox projected starters

LHP Braxton Garrett vs. RHP Kaleb Ort

Garrett (3-2, 3.64 ERA) is making his 15th start of the 2023 season. He has a 1.15 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9 through 76 2/3 innings across 15 games (14 starts).

  • Yielded 11 ER in start vs. Atlanta Braves May 3, allowing 14 H, 2 BB with 3 K in 14-6 home loss
  • Owns 2.50 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 14 ER), 0.87 WHIP since that defeat (9 starts) — with 2-1 record, while Marlins went 7-2
  • 2023 road split: 2.18 ERA (41 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 1.09 WHIP in 8 starts

Ort (1-1, 5.79 ERA) likely serves as an opener for the Red Sox. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 10.1 K/9 through 18 2/3 innings in 16 relief appearances and 1 start this season.

  • Owns a 6.08 career ERA (43 games)
  • Last outing: 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 1 K in 4-1 loss at Chicago White Sox Sunday
  • June 2023: 0-1, 2.84 ERA (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER), 4 H, 1 HR, 3 BB, 9 K in 5 games (1 starts)
  • LHP Chris Murphy (0.00 ERA in 8 IP) is another early-game option for BoSox

Marlins at Red Sox odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 3:38 p.m. ET.

  • Moneyline: Marlins -130 (bet $130 to win $100) | Red Sox +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins -1.5 (+120) | Red Sox +1.5 (-144)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Marlins at Red Sox picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 6, Red Sox 5

Moneyline

Garrett has been on a role. He’s pitched in an around a high .328 batting average with runners in scoring position and a 16.4 home runs/fly balls rate.

On the surface, Boston is quite good against lefties (.774 OPS), but that’s with the aid of a .318 BABIP.

The Fish have been all-around-solid of late. This price offers some leverage. BACK MIAMI (-130).

Run line/Against the spread

Both teams play a lot of 1-run games. Both also have the back ends of the bullpens geared up for action. A loose, summer-at-Fenway game may be in the offing, but hold off on trying to get plus money on the visitors unless the return gets to +130 or higher.

PASS.

Over/Under

BACK OVER 9.5 (-110).

Both teams have indicators that would say more offense is coming. On a warm, humid night at Fenway — with a wind helping balls over the Green Monster — figure this one having a decent shot of getting into double figures.

This figure is on the higher end in the market, though. There’s some value as long as the line doesn’t climb to 10.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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