Tag: Miami Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (1-1) face the Miami Marlins (1-1) Saturday in the 3rd game of a 4-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 1-1.

Miami came away with a 2-1 victory Friday to draw both of these squads back to .500 baseball. 1B Pete Alonso hit his first HR of the season in the 9th inning in Friday’s loss.

The Marlins LHP Jesus Luzardo notched 5 K and 0 ER in 5 2/3 IP in his season debut Friday. Miami’s 2 runs came from HRs by OF/2B Jazz Chisholm Jr. and OF/DH Jorge Soler.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

Mets at Marlins projected starters

RHP Tylor Megill vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Megill posted a 4-2 record in 9 starts and 6 relief appearances during the 2022 season. He finished with a 5.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 47 1/3 IP.

  • Hasn’t made a start since June 16 of last season vs. the Milwaukee Brewers as he ended the 2022 campaign in the bullpen.
  • Allowed 2 or more ER in 6 of his 9 starts in 2022.

Cabrera registered a 6-4 record in 14 starts during the 2022 season, finishing with a 3.01 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 in 71 2/3 IP.

  • Tallied 5 or more K’s in 8 of his 14 starts in 2022.
  • Logged 6 or more IP in only 3 of his 14 starts last season.

Mets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:53 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -120 (bet $120 to win $100) | Marlins +100 (bet $100 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Marlins +1.5 (-165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Following a loss to the Marlins on Friday, I’ll side with the METS (-120) to secure the victory on Saturday. Both teams have inexperienced pitchers on the mound, so I’ll take the better lineup in this NL East showdown.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (+140) is the pick in this game with New York looking to avoid starting the season with a 1-2 record. Eight of the last 10 meetings between these clubs have been decided by 2 or more runs.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

Even though it’s early in the season and it’s a decently high total, OVER 8 -105) is how I’d wager. Both pitchers involved in this game are inexperienced and could allow a decent number of base runners and give way to the bullpen early.

We’ve seen 8 or more runs scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings between these teams.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow Skyler Carlin on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (1-0) will face the Miami Marlins (0-1) in the 2nd game of a 4-game series on Friday at loanDepot Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 1-0.

The Mets defeated the Marlins 5-3 on Opening Day Thursday with RHP Max Scherzer allowing 3 ER in 6 IP while striking out 6 batters. OF Brandon Nimmo led the way offensively with 3 RBIs.

The Marlins lost with reigning NL Cy Young winner RHP Sandy Alcantara on the mound. He finished with 2 K, 4 BB, and 3 ER in 5 2/3 IP.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3011″ ]

[gambcom-standard rankid=”3012″ ]

[betwidget_tipico]

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo

Peterson went 7-5 in 19 starts during the 2022 season. He finished with a 3.83 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.1 BB/9, and 10.7 K/9 in 105 2/3 IP.

  • Won the final spot in New York’s rotation with RHP Justin Verlander and LHP Jose Quintana dealing with injuries
  • Has recorded 15-plus starts for the Mets in back-to-back seasons

Lazardo recorded a 4-7 record in 18 starts in 2022, finishing with a 3.32 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9, and 10.8 K/9 in 100 1/3 IP.

  • Was 0-1 with 6.75 ERA in 2 starts vs. Mets last year, allowing 10 H, 7 ER in 9.1 IP
  • Registered at least 6 IP in 11 of his 18 starts last season

Mets at Marlins nickname odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW23 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2023. Subscribe today and start winning!

Mets at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 3

Moneyline

Back the METS (-108) in this NL East matchup despite being on the road. Both teams will have southpaws on the mound, but New York has a lineup that is more adept to hit lefties and Miami’s bullpen isn’t a reliable unit.

The Mets have won 6 of their last 7 road meetings against the Marlins.

Run line/Against the spread

METS -1.5 (+150) has some value, despite many expecting a solid season from Luzardo. Peterson is a formidable pitcher in his own right and New York has enough firepower in its lineup to win by 2-plus runs.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Over/Under

OVER 7.5 (-105) is how I’d wager on the total as it remains to be seen how long the starting pitchers go in this game this early in the season. The Over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these teams.

[gambcom-standard rankid=”5″ ]

For sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Plus, try out the USA TODAY Parlay Calculator and please gamble responsibly.

Follow Skyler Carlin on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Texas Rangers at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Texas Rangers (41-49) and Miami Marlins (43-48) meet Thursday at loanDepot park in Miami. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10 p.m. ET (ESPN+). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Rangers vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: This is the first meeting since July 2017 and the first in Miami since 2014. The Marlins host the Rangers in this standalone game, a contest necessitated by the MLB lockout and delay to begin the 2021 season.

The Rangers wrapped up the first half getting swept in 4 games by the Seattle Mariners and have lost 12 of their last 17 contests. Texas is 8-7 in interleague games this season.

Miami was also swept prior to the break, losing a 3-game home set to the Philadelphia Phillies. The Marlins are 5-7 vs. AL teams.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Rangers at Marlins projected starters

RHP Jon Gray vs. RHP Pablo Lopez

Gray (6-4, 3.71 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.13 WHIP, 2.7 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 through 89 2/3 IP.

  • Has managed a 2-4 record with a 4.12 ERA and 58 K across 59 IP in 11 road outings.
  • Is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA and .210 opponent batting average with 29 K through 26 2/3 IP across 5 daytime starts.

Lopez (6-4, 2.86 ERA) makes his 19th start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 104 IP.

  • Is 3-1 with a 2.35 ERA and .180 OBA with 46 K through 46 IP across 8 home starts.
  • Has allowed just 7 ER, 13 H and 10 BB with 22 K and a .160 OBA across 24 1/3 IP over 4 daytime starts with no decisions.

Rangers at Marlins odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Rangers +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Marlins -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Rangers -1.5 (+170) | Marlins +1.5 (-210)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: +112 | U: -140)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Rangers at Marlins picks and predictions

Prediction

Rangers 6, Marlins 3

Money line

The RANGERS (+100) are worth a play behind the right-hander Gray in this standalone game. Gray won each of his previous 2 outings, including 7 scoreless IP with 1 H, 0 BB and 9 K against the Oakland Athletics last time out July 13.

Texas is also 8-7 against the NL this season, while Miami has a losing record against AL foes.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for 20% OFF full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 8/31/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

The RANGERS -1.5 (+170) are worth a roll of the dice in Miami. It’s been a while, but the Rangers are 5-1 in the past 6 trips to South Florida. More importantly, Texas is 23-10 in the past 33 against the NL East, while posting 5 wins in its last 7 interleague road outings.

Over/Under

The OVER 7.5 (+112) is the play there, as these teams are rested and raring to go after the break.

The Over has hit in 4 straight series openers for the Rangers while going 7-3 in the past 10 games overall.

The Over is 5-1-1 in the past 7 interleague starts vs. RHP for the Marlins while cashing in 4 of the past 5 outings following a scheduled day off. The Over has cashed in 9 of the last 12 meetings between these teams.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
BaseballHQ Fantasy Baseball
BaseballPress.com: Your source for every MLB lineup

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (5-8) meet the Atlanta Braves (7-8) Saturday for the second game of their  three-game series at Truist Park for a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Braves odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Atlanta beat Miami 3-0 in the series opener Friday thanks to a game by Braves RHP Kyle Wright who went 6-scoreless IP with 4 H, 1 BB and 11 K.

Season series: Atlanta leads 1-0.

Marlins at Braves projected starters

RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. RHP Ian Anderson

Hernandez (1-1, 4.22 ERA) got his first win Sunday versus the Philadelphia Phillies. He threw 6 IP with 1 ER on 5 H and 1 BB with 5 K in the 11-3 victory.

  • 2021 vs. Braves: No-decision in Miami’s 6-4 victory in Atlanta with 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 4 K in 1 start.
  • vs. Braves on current roster: 1.77 FIP with a .239 batting average (BA), .276 wOBA, .226 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 28.0 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV) in 50 plate appearances (PA).

Anderson (1-1, 6.48 ERA) won at the San Diego Padres last Saturday 5-2 going 5 2/3 IP, allowing 1 ER on 2 H and 1 BB with 7 K.

  • 2021 vs. Marlins: 1-1 with. 6.57 ERA (12 1/3 IP, 9 ER), 17 H, 11 BB and 19 K across 3 starts.
  • vs. Marlins on current roster: 3.55 FIP with a .312 BA, .366 wOBA, .373 xSLG, 25.6 K% and 85.2 mph EV in 86 PA.

Marlins at Braves odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130) | Braves -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-165) | Braves -1.5 (+133)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Braves picks and predictions

Prediction

Marlins 3, Braves 2

Money line

LEAN MARLINS (+130) because these teams are performing at a similar form entering Saturday so there’s value in betting the team with a plus-money payout.

There’s also a line freeze in the betting market because a vast majority of the action is on the Braves but the oddsmakers haven’t really moved the number. It appears that the sportsbooks are confident in their pricing and are inducing more pro-Atlanta action.

However, the Braves have a much higher ceiling since their lineup could start raking at any time and Miami’s First 5-inning RL is my favorite wager in this game hence the LEAN to the MARLINS (+130).

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

BET 1 unit on the MARLINS +0.5 FIRST 5-INNING RL (-120) because Anderson has struggled versus Miami in his young career whereas Hernandez has very solid pitching peripherals against Atlanta.

Miami’s lineup also ranks 10th in both wRC+ and wOBA versus right-handed pitching (per FanGraphs), ahead of Atlanta’s lineup in both metrics.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-107) because the weather forecast is predicting nearly double-digit mph winds blowing in from centerfield, the Marlins are 0-4 O/U in their last 4 games and the Braves are 0-3-1 O/U in Anderson’s last 4 starts as a favorite.

However, it’s only a LEAN to the UNDER 7.5 (-107) since roughly 90% of the cash is on the Under (according to Pregame.com) and I hate following the herd in sports betting.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Los Angeles Angels (1-3) host the Miami Marlins (1-2) Monday for the opener of their two-game interleague miniseries. First pitch from Angel Stadium is scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Marlins vs. Angels odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Angels dropped their first series to the AL West rival Houston Astros by a combined score of 20-10. L.A.’s only win was SP Noah Syndergaard‘s debut for the Angels. Syndergaard got the win with 5 1/3 IP, 2 H, 2 BB and 1 K.

Miami lost the rubber match with the defending NL West champion San Francisco Giants 3-2 Sunday to drop its first series. The Marlins were outscored by the Giants 10-9 and all three meetings were 1-run games.

Marlins at Angels: Projected starters

Miami RHP Elieser Hernandez vs. L.A. RHP Michael Lorenzen

Hernandez was 1-3 in 2021 with a 4.18 ERA (51 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 across 11 starts last season.

  • Hernandez has never pitched against the Angels

Lorenzen was 1-2 last season with a 5.59 ERA in 2021 (29 IP, 18 ER), 1.38 WHIP, 4.3 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 in 27 relief appearances for the Cincinnati Reds.

  • 2021 vs. Marlins: 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA over 3 2/3 IP with 2 H, 1 BB and 2 K in three games.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster: 2.48 FIP with a .128 batting average (BA), .150 wOBA, .235 expected slugging percentage, 17.1 K% and 84.2 mph exit velocity in 41 plate appearances.

Marlins at Angels odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:57 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Marlins +115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Angels -140 (bet $140 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Marlins +1.5 (-175) | Angels -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Marlins at Angels prediction and picks

Prediction

Angels 7, Marlins 4

Money line

BET the ANGELS (-140) because Hernandez is a bottom of the rotation starter and L.A.’s bullpen is sneaky good. Hernandez’s meatball rate was 1.4% higher than the MLB average and his barrel rate is 2.3% higher, per Statcast.

Angels 3B Anthony Rendon also mashed against Hernandez while playing in the NL East for the Washington Nationals. He has 2 home runs and a double in 10 PA versus Hernandez.

Rendon performing to his contract is major for L.A.’s lineup this season and his dominance over Hernandez means Angels’ 3-hole hitter 1B Jared Walsh should get some meatballs.

The ANGELS (-140) is my favorite wager in this game.

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! Use the couple code SBW22 for $15 OFF a Draft Prep or full-season subscription. New customer offer; expires 4/30/2022. Subscribe today and start winning!

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I don’t like L.A. enough to sprinkle on the Angels -1.5 (+140) because their lineup has been more sizzle than steak since the beginning of last season and hasn’t lived up to its potential.

Furthermore, Miami has one of the better bullpens in baseball so I wouldn’t rule out the Marlins relievers keeping this one close if Hernandez doesn’t get nuked.

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 9.5 (-102) because both starters are question marks, the weather forecast is predicting nearly 12 mph blowing out to right-centerfield and the presumed sharp side of the market is on the Over.

More than 70% of the cash is on the Over while nearly 60% of the bets placed are on the Under according to pregame.com. Typically, in sports betting, it’s wise to follow the money especially when it’s counter to the public.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (70-69) meet the Miami Marlins (57-81) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won the series opener Tuesday 9-4, which was keyed by a decisive 3-run top of the 6th inning punctuated by a Mets SS Francisco Lindor 2-run RBI single.

Season series: Mets lead 7-6.

LHP Rich Hill is New York’s projected starter. Hill is 6-6 with a 3.92 ERA (133 IP, 58 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 26 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in New York’s 6-2 win at the Washington Nationals Friday.
  • Hill has two no-decisions this season against Miami with a 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in two starts.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster (50 PA): 5.84 FIP with a .300 batting average (BA), .359 wOBA, .444 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 10.0 K% and 85.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins. Alcantara is 8-13 with a 3.36 ERA (171 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 4-3 loss at the Mets Thursday.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (124 PA): 4.79 FIP with a .293 BA, .343 wOBA, .505 xSLG, 13.7 K% and 86.4 mph EV.
  • Home splits: 2-5 with a 2.34 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 13 starts.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+155) | Marlins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS (-108) for a half unit because I give them a decent-sized edge in the starting pitching duel and there’s “reverse line movement“(RLM) headed in Miami’s direction.

Alcantara has better pitching peripherals against New York’s lineup than Hill does against Miami’s lineup. Also, Alcantara has a passing grade in EV, xSLG, barrel rate, expected wOBA and ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate. While Hill grades in the 37th percentile or worse in xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate, K% and chase rate.

Nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on New York’s money line according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. However, the Mets have been brought down from a -128 consensus money line favorites to the current price, and it’s always a red flag in sports betting when the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami’s run line insurance is far too pricey considering the roll the Mets have been on recently. New York is 8-2 in its last 10 games, seven of those victories by 2 or more runs.

For the record, the Mets are just 11-24 ATS as road favorites and the Marlins are 23-18 ATS as home underdogs.

However, Miami’s 56.1% cover rate as a home underdog isn’t high enough since the Marlins +1.5 (-180) has an implied win probability of 64.3%.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-130) for a tiny wager because there’s some RLM in the O/U market with the Under being ticked up despite a majority of bets and money being wagered on the Over. Plus the weather forecast is predicting double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.

Finally, Miami’s lineup ranks in the bottom-4 of the MLB vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K with the lowest hard-hit rate.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Marlins at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (55-78) play the New York Mets (65-67) Thursday at Citi Field in their series finale with the first pitch scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York is looking for for its second win in this series after Wednesday’s meeting was rained out and rescheduled for later in the season.

Season series: Marlins lead 6-5.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is on the rubber for the Marlins. He is 8-12 with a 3.27 ERA (165 1/3 IP, 60 ER), 2.6 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 27 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 6-1, with 7 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 1 BB and 12 K Saturday against the Cincinnati Reds.
  • 2021 road stats: 6-7 with a 4.24 ERA (80 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.31 WHIP and 2.5 K/BB across 14 starts.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (116 PA): 4.78 FIP with a .264 batting average (BA), .320 wOBA, .443 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 13.8 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Carlos Carrasco is New York’s projected starter. He is 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA (23 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9 through six starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 7 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 0 BB and 5 K in New York’s 3-2 loss to the San Francisco Giants Aug. 26.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster (32 PA): 1.63 FIP with a .250 BA, .259 wOBA, .266 xSLG, 21.9 K% and 87.8 mph EV.

Marlins at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-160) | Mets -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under: 6.5 (O: -135 | U: +110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Marlins 3, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Marlins (+140) because the Mets shouldn’t be this big of a favorite against any opponent given the dumpster fire New York’s 2021 has turned into. Also, Miami has its ace on the hill Thursday and the Marlins lead the Mets in the season series.

However, Carrasco’s previous start against a powerhouse Giants team was impressive and New York has won three straight games. Furthermore, the Marlins are 21-46 on the road and the Mets are 40-27 at home so I understand the pricing.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS +1.5 (-160) for a half unit as more of a fade of the Mets rather than a bet on Miami. New York is 17-34 ATS as a home favorite and 23-34 ATS vs. NL East foes. Whereas the Marlins are 29-26 ATS as a road underdog and 30-22 ATS against divisional opponents.

Moreover, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the ATS betting market. According to Pregame.com, nearly 85% of the cash is on Miami’s run line but a slight majority of the bets placed are on New York and it’s typically wiser to follow the money in sports betting.

Over/Under (O/U)

“LEAN” to the UNDER 6.5 (+110) for a half unit only because we are arriving to the party a little late. The Marlins-Mets game opened with a flat-7 total before the pro-Under money forced sportsbooks to lower the total.

And we have another “pros vs. joes” situation with the presumed “sharp” money being on the Under but more bets have been placed on the Over.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The Miami Marlins (47-62) visit the Colorado Rockies (48-61) Friday to start a three-game series at Coors Field. First pitch is scheduled for 8:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Marlins vs. Rockies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Miami took three of four against the New York Mets earlier this week following a four-game losing skid and is 5-5 in its last 10 games.

Colorado is also 5-5 in the past 10 games and has won four of the past six games including two games of a three-game series vs. the Chicago Cubs.

Season series: Marlins lead 2-1.

RHP Sandy Alcantara is Miami’s projected starter. Alcantara is 6-9 with a 3.12 ERA (132 2/3 IP, 46 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 22 starts.

  • Last outing: No decision in a 3-1 loss, with 7 IP, 0 ER, 2 H, 1 BB and 10 K Sunday against the New York Yankees.
  • 2021 road splits: 5-5 with a 3.71 ERA (63 IP, 26 ER), 1.30 WHIP and 2.3 K/BB in 11 starts.

RHP German Marquez makes his 23rd start for the Rockies. Marquez is 9-8 with a 3.58 ERA (130 2/3 IP, 52 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: Win, 5-3, with 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 7 K Saturday at the San Diego Padres.
  • 2021 home splits: 6-2 with a 3.29 ERA (76 2/3 IP, 28 ER), 1.15 WHIP and 2.4 K/BB in 13 starts.

Marlins at Rockies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:31 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Rockies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Marlins +1.5 (-145) | Rockies -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Prediction

Rockies 6, Marlins 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) because Marquez and Colorado have been awesome at home while Alcantara and Miami have struggled on the road.

For instance, Marquez’s impressive home splits come despite him making his home starts at the launching pad of Coors Field. He’s allowed just four home runs this year at Coors, three less than he’s given up on the road, and Marquez has pitched 22 innings more at home.

Furthermore, the Rockies have the highest winning percentage as a home favorite (18-5 overall record) and the Marlins are just 17-26 as a road underdog.

Also, compare Alcantara’s road numbers above to these home splits: 2.58 home ERA, 0.94 home WHIP and a 4.2 K/BB at home with a .555 opponent’s home OPS (.712 opponent’s OPS on the road).

On top of that, according to Pregame.com Colorado’s money line has been steamed up from -143 at open to the current number so “sharp” money is backing the Rockies.

However, I can only “LEAN” to the ROCKIES (-170) for a half unit at this price because it’s too far off the consensus market. Several books are offering Colorado’s money line in the -155 to -160 range.

Perhaps Tipico is ahead of the market or has more liability with the Rockies than other sportsbooks but I cannot ignore the price difference. Hopefully, Tipico is just offering a “sharp” money line because at least I’d feel better about my Colorado “lean”.

FANTASY BASEBALL: Serious about winning your league? Sign up for BaseballHQ.com to dominate the competition. Subscribe now!

Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the ROCKIES -1.5 (+115) for a tiny wager if at all because all six of Marquez’s wins at home have been by at least 2 runs.

However, I wouldn’t bet Colorado’s run line too heavily because Miami is 26-17 ATS as a road dog and the Rockies are 11-12 ATS as a home favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 9.5 (-107) for light wager for trendy reasons such as these teams being a combined 16-24 O/U with these starters on the mound, Miami’s 19-22-2 O/U record as a road dog and Colorado is 8-15 O/U as a home favorite.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1372]