The 5th-seeded Miami Hurricanes (29-7) look to take down the 4-seed Connecticut Huskies (29-8) in the Final Four in Houston on Saturday at 8:49 p.m. (CBS). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Miami vs. UConn odds as we make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
Miami, ranked No. 15 in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, will look to take down another ranked team in No. 12 UConn to reach its 1st National Championship game. The Hurricanes have used elite shooting in the tournament to make it this far.
After shooting 59% from the field against Houston in the Sweet 16, Miami turned around and overcame a 13-point deficit in the Elite 8 with a 52% performance against Texas. While Nigel Pack gets the most attention due to his NIL package, Jordan Miller was the player who led Miami back, scoring 27 points.
Miller became the 1st player since Duke’s Christian Laettner to score more than 25 points in a tournament game on 100% shooting; he was 7-for-7 from the field and 13-for-13 from the free throw line. He will need to repeat that performance against a UConn team that has been dominating this postseason.
The Huskies could become the 1st team since the 2004 Huskies to get to the Final Four while winning all its games by 15 or more points and also win the National Championship. According to ESPN, UConn is the 1st team to make it to the Final Four while winning all its games by 15-plus points and winning its Sweet 16 game and its Elite 8 game by more than 20 points since the 1996 Kentucky Wildcats — a team which also won the title.
Dan Hurly’s team has been the best team in the tournament and have yet to have any missteps. This game could be the beginning of the coronation for UConn’s next championship.
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Miami at UConn odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Friday at 4:23 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Miami +200 (bet $100 to win $200) | UConn -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Miami +5.5 (-110) | UConn -5.5 (-110)
- Over/Under (O/U): 149.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)
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Miami at UConn picks and predictions
Prediction
UConn 80, Miami 71
Moneyline
PASS.
UConn has been the best team in the tournament. Miami very well could be playing the 2nd-best. And while UConn is on a level of its own this postseason, -250 is simply too much to wager on a straight bet. So, it is just best to pass on this in favor of other plays.
Against the spread
BET UCONN -5.5 (-110).
UConn was ranked top 6 in the NET (NCAA Evaluation Tool) ranking from the time it finished its 14-0 start through now. Even after losing 6 of 8 games, the talent UConn had only allowed the Huskies to drop from 1st to 6th, and they have now returned to No. 1 after their dominating effort in this tournament.
After winning all its games by at least 15 points, UConn will have a tougher time with Miami. But the game will still not be close, and the Huskies are likely to run away with yet another game on their way to the title game.
The Hurricanes have used elite shooting to stay in the tournament after almost being bounced in the 1st round by Drake. UConn has a tough defense and the depth to bring in wave after wave of top athletes. Miami will finally meet its match in Houston. Miami is the lowest ranked team in the NET ranks left in the tournament and it will show in this game.
The 5.5 points is not enough of a cushion and UConn will win another double-digit game as the lone elite team left.
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Over/Under
BET OVER 149.5 (-108).
Miami has gone Over the total in all its games this tournament. UConn has gone Over the total in 2 of its 4 games.
Gonzaga was the top offensive team in the nation this season but were only able to put up 54 points against UConn. With the shooting ability Miami has shown, the Hurricanes will at least get to 65 and with the ability of UConn to score, this will make the game get to the Over.
Against 2 offensive teams in Iona and Gonzaga, UConn has averaged 84.5 points. It was also able to put up 88 points against a talented Arkansas team. While 80 points for the Huskies is a relative certainty, if Miami gets to 70 — and it has hit at least 85 in its last 3 games — this is an easy Over. If you would rather make just a play on the spread, fine. But if making a wager on the total, the Over is the only way to play it.
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