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The Purdue Boilermakers (34-4) and UConn Huskies (36-3) meet in Monday’s National Championship Game. Tip-off from State Farm Arena in Glendale, Ariz., is slated for 9:20 p.m. ET (TBS). Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Purdue vs. UConn odds, and make our expert college basketball picks, predictions and best bets.
The No. 1 seed out of the Midwest Region, the Purdue Boilermakers, rolled off 5 consecutive wins and covers in the NCAA Tournament. They topped 16th-seeded Grambling 78-50 in the 1st round as 27-point favorites with the Under (137.5) cashing. They walloped 8th-seeded Utah State 106-67 in the 2nd round as 11.5-point favorites with the Over (150.5) hitting, and they ousted No. 5 seed Gonzaga 80-68 in the Sweet 16 as 4.5-point favorites as the Under (155.5) connected.
Purdue saved its best basketball for the Elite 8 and Final Four, though, really applying the defense against No. 2 seed Tennessee in the quarterfinals and 11th-seeded NC State in the semis. The Boilers were 3-point favorites in a 72-66 win vs. the Volunteers as the Under (148) hit, and they beat the Wolfpack 63-50 in a defensive battle to cover as 9.5-point favorites with the Under (147) coming in, helping them advance to the title game.
Just a season ago, the Boilermakers became the 2nd team in NCAA Tourney history — joining Virginia — to lose in the 1st round as a No. 16 seed, getting upset by Fairleigh Dickinson. Virginia lost to No. 16 seed UMBC in 2018, but the next season, the Cavaliers used that loss as motivation, rolling to the national title in 2019. Purdue is looking to do the same.
The defending champs from UConn, the No. 1 team in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll, stand in its way — Purdue is ranked 3rd.
- Championship Game: Purdue-UConn best prop bets
UConn is a perfect 8-0 in the postseason — ACC and NCAA Tournaments — while going 7-1 against the spread (ATS) in those games. Like Purdue, it is also 5-0 straight up (SU) and ATS in the NCAA Tourney.
The Huskies won 91-52 against 16th-seeded Stetson in the opening round, covering as 27.5-point favorites as the Under (146) cashed. They dumped 9th-seeded Northwestern 75-58 as 13-point favorites with the Under (137) hitting. They belted No. 5 seed San Diego State in a national title game rematch in the Sweet 16, claiming an 82-52 victory to easily cover as 12-point favorites as the Under (136.5) cashed.
In the Elite 8, 3rd-seeded Illinois was no match for UConn, as the Huskies covered an 8-point spread in a 77-52 win as the Under (154.5) again hit. In Saturday’s semifinal, UConn belted No. 4 seed Alabama 86-72 as a 10-point favorite and the Under (160.5) connected.
Purdue vs. UConn odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook’s; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Sunday at 6:32 p.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Purdue +225 (bet $100 to win $225) | UConn -275 (bet $275 to win $100)
- Against the spread: Purdue +6.5 (-105) | UConn -6.5 (-115)
- Over/Under (O/U): 145.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Purdue vs. UConn and predictions
Prediction
UConn 75, Purdue 67
Moneyline
UConn (-275) will cost 2.75 times the potential return. That’s way too expensive for not enough reward. While the Huskies have won 12 consecutive games, including 8 in the postseason, since getting cracked at Creighton by 19 points Feb. 20 — an 85-66 loss — you can’t bet this much for such a small return.
PASS and look to the spread instead.
Against the spread
UCONN -6.5 (-115) is a good play, although it’s a big number for the title game.
As mentioned, Purdue is also 5-0 SU and ATS in the NCAA Tournament, and C Zach Edey will be a handful for the Huskies to contain. However, while he is a special player, and guards Lance Jones and Fletcher Loyer will give the Boilers nice perimeter shooting, UConn is much deeper and well-balanced with a top-notch and experienced starting 5.
The fact UConn was in the title game last season, the lights will be a little less bright, and it should be able to navigate the waters a little more effectively if and when those waters get a little choppy.
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Over/Under
UNDER 145.5 (-110) is the best play on the board. It opened at 146.5, but didn’t stay there too long.
Both of these teams pride themselves on defense. UConn has allowed 58 or fewer points in 5 of the past 6 games dating back to the Big East Championship Game, and it has cashed the Under in all 6 of those games, while going low in 9 of the past 10 outings.
Purdue hasn’t been quite a good defensively, but it has allowed 68 or fewer points in all 5 NCAA Tournament games, and the Under is 4-1 in those outings.
UConn should be able to dent Purdue for a few more than its tournament average, but don’t look for this to be an up-tempo, high-scoring affair. It will be a grind.
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