Miami Heat vs. Philadelphia 76ers predictions pick betting line spread

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 1 seed Miami Heat (3-2) head to the Wells Fargo Center Thursday to play No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers (2-3) in a crucial Game 6 of their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series. Tip-off is set for 7 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami routed Philly 120-85 Tuesday in Game 5. The Heat outperformed the Sixers in all “four factors” and outscored Philly in 3 of the 4 quarters (they tied in the 2nd quarter). The Sixers had a 14-15 assist-to-turnover ratio while the Heat had a 26-14 assist-to-turnover ratio.

Heat F Jimmy Butler has been the best player in the series, averaging 26.6 points on 53.4% shooting with 7.4 rebounds, 5.8 assists and a plus-26 net rating.

The home team has won and covered the first 5 games of this series and the total is 2-3 Over/Under (O/U).

Heat at 76ers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:25 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | 76ers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +2.5 (-112) | 76ers -2.5 (-108)
Over/Under: 207.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Heat at 76ers key injuries

Heat

SG Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) out
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (knee) questionable

76ers

C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at 76ers picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 105, 76ers 102

Money line

LEAN HEAT (+110) since I like Miami plus the points, but can’t fully get there on the Heat’s ML because it’s not a big enough payout.

If Miami’s ML was north of +130, I’d take a stab but I’d rather grab the Heat’s spread and in-game the Sixers plus points for a “middle” if Miami goes up double digits.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

There’s value in the HEAT +2.5 (-112) because they are owning the 76ers -2.5 (-108) in turnover rate and rebounding. The most important thing in playoff basketball is accumulating possessions and Miami has a plus-24 rebound differential for the series and has committed 10 fewer turnovers.

Shooting comes and goes in basketball and these teams are tied in effective field goal shooting for the series. But, Miami was the best 3-point shooting team in the NBA during the regular season, 3rd in defensive turnover rate and had a much better rebounding rate than Philly.

Since the Heat should win the battle of possessions comfortably, I’ll take my chances that Miami’s elite 3-point shooters hit a few big shots in Philly Thursday and at least keep Game 6 close.

TAKE the HEAT +2.5 (-112).

Over/Under

PASS because my prediction aligns with the market’s projected score so there’s no value for me in this total.

If anything, I “lean” Under 207.5 (-115) since it’s an elimination game for Philly and this series has a 92.3 possessions per 48-minute pace while the average NBA team is playing at a 95.8 for these playoffs. Furthermore, these teams have a combined 46-60 O/U record vs. teams with a winning record.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers Game 4 lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The No. 3 seed Philadelphia 76ers (1-2) hope to even their Eastern Conference semifinals playoff series with the No. 1 seed Miami Heat (2-1) when they host Game 4 Sunday. Tip-off at the Wells Fargo Center is set for 8 p.m. ET (TNT). Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Sixers MVP Finalist C Joel Embiid returned to action after missing Games 1 and 2 with an orbital fracture and concussion he sustained in Philly’s first-round series-clinching victory at the Toronto Raptors April 28.

Embiid’s return immediately improved Philly’s defense, which held Miami to just 35.1% from the field (23.3% from behind the arc). He was particularly effective on Heat big Bam Adebayo, who averaged 23.5 points on 71.4% shooting in the first 2 games but only scored 9 points in Game 3.

Miami is 4-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) vs. Philly this season, which includes the playoffs, and the total is 2-5 Over/Under (O/U) in those meetings.

Heat at 76ers odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:44 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat +110 (bet $100 to win $110) | 76ers -135 (bet $135 to win $100)
Against the spread: Heat +1.5 (-105) | 76ers -1.5 (-120)
Over/Under: 206.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at 76ers key injuries

Heat

C Dewayne Dedmon (illness) questionable
SG Tyler Herro (ankle) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (hamstring) questionable
SF Caleb Martin (ankle) questionable
SG Max Strus (hamstring) questionable
PF P.J. Tucker (calf) questionable
PG Gabe Vincent (knee) questionable

76ers

C Joel Embiid (facial fracture) questionable

[tipico]

Heat at 76ers picks and predictions

Prediction

76ers 102, Heat 99

Money line

LEAN 76ERS (-135) because this series should go 6 or 7 games with Embiid back in the lineup and because Miami’s half-court offense was dreadful in Game 3.

First-year Heat PG Kyle Lowry looks washed up and Philly figured something out when it started blitzing Heat SG Tyler Herro on high ball screens in the second half of Game 2, forcing Herro into bad decisions and turnovers.

That said, Miami has the better coach, has more continuity and more playoff experience. Also, the Heat were down just 4 points heading into the 4th quarter of Game 3 before Philly combo guard Tyrese Maxey erupted for 14 4th-quarter points on 5 of 5 shooting (4 of 4 from behind the arc).

It’s only a LEAN to the 76ERS (-135) because I see Game 4 being a rock-fight and the Under is my favorite wager in this contest.

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

PASS with a lean to the 76ers -1.5 (-120) because there’s a Pros vs. Joe’s scenario in the betting market with the presumed sharp side backing Philly.

According to Tipico Sportsbook, more than 85% of the bets placed are on the Heat +1.5 (-105), but roughly two-thirds of the money is on the Sixers. Since professional bettors wager more money than your average Joe, the cash column of the betting splits is the one to follow.

However, since this is a toss-up game, I’m not keen about laying points with either side. PASS.

Over/Under

BET the UNDER 206.5 (-107) because there’s reverse line movement headed south of the total. Nearly 75% of the action and two-thirds of the money is on the Over (per Tipico), but the Heat-76ers total has been lowered from a 208-point opener down to the current number.

Also, this series is playing at a snail’s pace. For instance, Heat-76ers have a combined 90.4 possessions per 48 minutes through Game 3 and the slowest-paced team in the playoffs was the Utah Jazz at 91.0 possessions per 48.

Finally, 3 of the 4 referees in this game have officiated more Unders and the officiating crew has a combined 103-111 O/U record this season. Both teams’ superstars live at the foul line but they might have a tough time getting to the charity stripe Sunday.

BET the UNDER 206.5 (-107) for 1 unit.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia 76ers (43-27) host the Miami Heat (47-24) Monday at the Wells Fargo Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami has won 3 of its last 4 games — 1-3 against the spread (ATS) — which includes back-to-back home victories over the Detroit Pistons Tuesday (105-98) and the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday (120-108).

Philly was upset at home Sunday by the Toronto Raptors 99-83, busting a 2-game winning streak. In the last two weeks, the Sixers are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 2-4-1 ATS.

The Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Sixers this season and the total is 0-3 Over/Under (O/U).

Heat at 76ers odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.

Money line (ML): Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | 76ers +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread: Heat -1.5 (-112) | 76ers +1.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

Heat at 76ers key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable

76ers (not yet submitted)

None

[tipico]

Heat at 76ers odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 111, 76ers 104

Money line

BET the HEAT (-125) for 1 unit because they excel when playing with a rest advantage and the 76ers struggle in the second of back-to-backs.

Miami is 15-8 SU when playing with a rest advantage (plus-9.8 margin of victory) and Philly is 3-5 SU and ATS on zero rest days (minus-3.6 margin of victory).

Furthermore, the Heat have an identity and a huge coaching advantage in this spot. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the NBA and the primary reason the Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Sixers this season. Also, Joel Embiid and the Sixers have only beaten the Heat twice in Miami.

On top of that, Philly gets abused by good defenses. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Sixers are 9-11 SU versus teams in the top-10 of defensive rating with a minus-5.3 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th) and a minus-6.1 ATS margin (ranked last).

Finally, the Heat have been steamed from an underdog on the opener up to a favorite (according to VegasInsider.com) so it would appear as though Miami is the sharp side.

BET 1 unit on the HEAT (-125).

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Against the spread

PASS because Miami’s ML is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat so let’s not sweat needing a cover.

That said, Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games as a road favorite and 11-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record. Whereas Philly is 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine Heat-76ers games and 7-13 ATS at home when playing winning teams.

Miami’s ML is my preferred wager but I’d be willing to lay up to 3 points with the Heat if their ML increases to -140 or pricier.

Over/Under

PASS with a “lean” towards the Under 214.5 (-115) since Philly is 2-5-1 O/U in the second of a back-to-back, 3-5 O/U as home underdogs, Miami is 7-12 O/U when playing with a rest advantage and the Under has cashed in four consecutive Heat-76ers meetings.

However, there isn’t a big enough margin between my prediction and the projected total to lay any money on my lean.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]