The Philadelphia 76ers (43-27) host the Miami Heat (47-24) Monday at the Wells Fargo Center for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Heat vs. 76ers odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.
Miami has won 3 of its last 4 games — 1-3 against the spread (ATS) — which includes back-to-back home victories over the Detroit Pistons Tuesday (105-98) and the Oklahoma City Thunder Friday (120-108).
Philly was upset at home Sunday by the Toronto Raptors 99-83, busting a 2-game winning streak. In the last two weeks, the Sixers are 4-3 straight up (SU) and 2-4-1 ATS.
The Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Sixers this season and the total is 0-3 Over/Under (O/U).
Heat at 76ers odds, spread and lines
Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:12 a.m. ET.
- Money line (ML): Heat -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | 76ers +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
- Against the spread: Heat -1.5 (-112) | 76ers +1.5 (-108)
- Over/Under (O/U): 214.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)
Heat at 76ers key injuries
Heat
- SF Jimmy Butler (ankle) questionable
76ers (not yet submitted)
- None
[tipico]
Heat at 76ers odds, lines, picks and predictions
Prediction
Heat 111, 76ers 104
Money line
BET the HEAT (-125) for 1 unit because they excel when playing with a rest advantage and the 76ers struggle in the second of back-to-backs.
Miami is 15-8 SU when playing with a rest advantage (plus-9.8 margin of victory) and Philly is 3-5 SU and ATS on zero rest days (minus-3.6 margin of victory).
Furthermore, the Heat have an identity and a huge coaching advantage in this spot. Miami coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best in the NBA and the primary reason the Heat are 2-1 SU and ATS versus the Sixers this season. Also, Joel Embiid and the Sixers have only beaten the Heat twice in Miami.
On top of that, Philly gets abused by good defenses. According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), the Sixers are 9-11 SU versus teams in the top-10 of defensive rating with a minus-5.3 adjusted net rating (ranked 17th) and a minus-6.1 ATS margin (ranked last).
Finally, the Heat have been steamed from an underdog on the opener up to a favorite (according to VegasInsider.com) so it would appear as though Miami is the sharp side.
BET 1 unit on the HEAT (-125).
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Against the spread
PASS because Miami’s ML is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive than the Heat so let’s not sweat needing a cover.
That said, Miami is 6-0-1 ATS in the last seven games as a road favorite and 11-6 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record. Whereas Philly is 2-6-1 ATS in the last nine Heat-76ers games and 7-13 ATS at home when playing winning teams.
Miami’s ML is my preferred wager but I’d be willing to lay up to 3 points with the Heat if their ML increases to -140 or pricier.
Over/Under
PASS with a “lean” towards the Under 214.5 (-115) since Philly is 2-5-1 O/U in the second of a back-to-back, 3-5 O/U as home underdogs, Miami is 7-12 O/U when playing with a rest advantage and the Under has cashed in four consecutive Heat-76ers meetings.
However, there isn’t a big enough margin between my prediction and the projected total to lay any money on my lean.
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