Miami Heat odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line – Page 3

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Washington Wizards at Miami Heat and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Washington Wizards (17-16) travel to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (21-13) at FTX Arena. The tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Wizards vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Miami enters on a three-game winning streak with victories over the Indiana Pacers, Detroit Pistons, and Orlando Magic.

Over the past two weeks, the Heat are 5-2 straight-up (SU), 3-4 ATS and 3-4 O/U with the eighth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.7 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Washington got clobbered 117-96 by the Philadelphia 76ers Sunday as 4-point home underdogs. The Wizards are 2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS and 4-2 O/U in the last 14 days with the 26th-ranked adjusted net rating (minus-9.1 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

This is the regular-season rubber match between these teams with the home team winning and covering the first two meetings, and either side of the total cashing in each contest.

Wizards at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

Money line: Wizards +205 (bet $100 to win $205) | Heat -260 (bet $260 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Wizards +6.5 (-115) | Heat -6.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Wizards at Heat key injuries

Wizards

SG Bradley Beal (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Rui Hachimura (health and safety protocols) out
SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (health and safety protocols) out
PG Raul Neto (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

PF P.J. Tucker (knee) questionable
PG Kyle Lowry (health and safety protocols) out
C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Deposit $10 or more, get $100 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Wizards at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 107, Wizards 95

Money line

PASS since I like Miami to win outright but not enough to lay it with the Heat (-260). However, Miami wing Jimmy Butler returned from an eight-game absence in the Heat’s last game vs. the Magic.

Before his injury, Butler was playing at an All-NBA-caliber. Butler is third in PER, Win Shares per 48 and box plus/minus. Furthermore, Butler is averaging 30.5 points per game on 57.9% shooting with a plus-29 net rating vs. the Wizards this season.

Against the spread

BET 1 unit on the HEAT -6.5 (-107) because they’ve been hit by sharp money early and this is a better spot for Miami.

For instance, this game opened with the Heat laying 6 points but is increasing due to pro-Miami action. Both teams are missing a bunch of players due to COVID but that’s already accounted for in the line.

With that in mind, the Heat are 5-1 ATS at home vs. teams with a winning record. While the Wizards are 6-13-1 ATS on the road and 1-4-1 ATS when being spotted 5-7 points.

Over/Under

“LEAN” to the UNDER 208.5 (-107) since we are getting reverse line movement despite most of the situation-based trends suggesting Wizards-Heat would be a low-scoring game.

According to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app, a vast majority of the money is on the Over, but the total for this game has been lowered from the 210-point lookahead number.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Indiana Pacers (13-18) head to South Beach Tuesday for a 7:30 p.m. game against the Miami Heat (18-13) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Pacers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Indiana snapped a two-game losing skid Thursday by beating the Detroit Pistons 122-113 but failed to cover as a 10.5-point home favorite.

The Pacers are 3-2 straight-up (SU), 3-2 ATS and 2-3 O/U the last two weeks with the sixth-best non-garbage time net rating (plus-5.4 points per 100 possessions), according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).

Miami had its two-game win streak snapped with a 100-90 loss at the Pistons as a 6.5-point favorite. The Heat is 4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS and 2-4 O/U over the last 14 days with the seventh-ranked non-garbage time net rating (plus-4.9 points per 100 possessions), per CTG.

These teams are tied 1-1 SU and ATS in their regular-season series heading into the rubber match and both sides of the total has cashed.

Pacers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:10 a.m. ET.

Money line: Pacers -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Heat +102 (bet $100 to win $102)
Against the spread (ATS): Pacers -1.5 (-115) | Heat +1.5 (-107)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -108 | U: -112)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Pacers at Heat key injuries

Pacers

None.

Heat

SG Tyler Herro (quadriceps) questionable
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
PF P.J. Tucker (knee) out
SG Caleb Martin (health and safety protocols) out

Pacers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Pacers 108, Heat 97

Money line

TAKE the PACERS (-125) for 1 unit because they have a higher rebounding rate and better ball security. Indiana also led Miami in all “four factors” in their first meeting this season and in three of the “four factors” in the second.

The Heat are definitely without three of their starters and could be without Sixth Man of the Year candidate, Herro.

Butler has only played in one game this month and Miami is 22nd in non-garbage time net rating (minus-3.0 points per 100 possessions) in December (CTG). Compare that to Indiana who’s eighth in non-garbage time net rating this month (plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions).

The Pacers are not only playing better but are the more well-rested team. Indiana hasn’t played since Dec. 16 whereas Miami last played Sunday.

GIMME the PACERS (-125).

Against the spread

PASS on the Pacers -1.5 (-115) since Indiana’s money line is only 10 cents on the dollar more expensive. For what it’s worth, the Pacers are 6-8 ATS on the road and the Heat are 8-4 ATS at home.

However, Indiana is 5-2 ATS on the road versus teams with a winning record and 3-2-1 ATS and a plus-4.9 spread differential when playing with a rest advantage.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 209.5 (-112) because a boatload of money has been dumped on the Over, according to both Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports app. However, both of these teams rank 23rd or lower in pace and the Under has cashed in eight of the past 11 Pacers-Heat meetings.

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and, soon, IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Chicago Bulls at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Chicago Bulls (17-9) head to South Beach Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET tip-off against the Miami Heat (15-11) at FTX Center. Below, we look at the Bulls vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Chicago had its four-game win streak snapped Wednesday with a 115-92 loss at the Cleveland Cavaliers. The Bulls are 4-2 straight-up (SU), 4-2 ATS and 3-3 O/U over the last two weeks with the 10th-best efficiency differential according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CtG).

Miami upset the Milwaukee Bucks 113-104 as a 6.5-point home underdog Thursday but is just 3-4 SU in its last seven games. The Heat are 3-4 ATS and 4-3 O/U with the 25th-best efficiency differential over the past two weeks (CtG).

The Heat won the first regular-season meeting with the Bulls 107-104 in Chicago Nov. 27 as 1-point road favorites and the Over cashed on a 209.5-point total. However, both teams were at full health whereas each is missing a plethora of contributors for this meeting.

Bulls at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:20 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bulls -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Heat -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Bulls +1.5 (-122) | Heat -1.5 (-102)
Over/Under (O/U): 209.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bulls at Heat key injuries

Bulls

SG Alex Caruso (hamstring) questionable
SF DeMar DeRozan (health and safety protocols) out
SF Derrick Jones (health and safety protocols) out
PG Coby White (health and safety protocols) out

Heat

SG Duncan Robinson (quadriceps) probable
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out
SF Jimmy Butler (back) out

Bulls at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Heat 109, Bulls 104

Money line

“LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) because they are 6-2 SU as an underdog with a plus-5.1 scoring margin. I also trust Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra to get more out of his shorthanded roster than Chicago head coach Billy Donovan.

Miami was deeper even before Chicago’s COVID-related absences. The Heat have the fifth-highest scoring bench in the NBA with the fifth-best plus/minus whereas the Bulls had the second-worst scoring bench.

DeRozan ranks 93rd percentile of wings in on/off efficiency differential and he scored a game-high 28 points on 57.9% shooting in the first Bulls-Heat meeting this season.

Moreover, Miami does a good job defending how Chicago plays. The Bulls run a lot of action through pick-and-roll (PnR) offense and attempt the most long-mid-range jumpers (per CtG), but the Heat play good PnR defense and have the best defensive field goal percentage versus long-mid-range jumpers.

The reason why I only “LEAN” to the HEAT (-110) is that the Bulls have by far the best player on the floor in G Zach LaVine. I’m high on LaVine this season and he’s ascended to one of the best 20 players in the NBA.

Against the spread

PASS since Miami’s money line is only 8 cents on the dollar pricier than the Heat -1.5 (-102) so there’s no use in fussing with the points in this game.

That said, the trend of Miami’s 7-1 ATS record as an underdog with a plus-10.1 ATS margin applies here since this game is priced as a coin-flip.

Over/Under

PASS since it’s hard to predict how these teams will operate with all the missing players.

The previous three Bulls-Heat games have gone Over the total and I think there’s a better chance of a shootout than a rock-fight in this one, but I don’t have a strong enough conviction in that to bet it.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Milwaukee Bucks (16-9) head to “South Beach” Wednesday for a 7:30 p.m. ET game against the Miami Heat (14-11) at FTX Arena. Below, we look at the Bucks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Milwaukee has won 10 of its last 11 games including two straight over the Heat Saturday and the Cleveland Cavaliers Monday. The Bucks’ only loss in that 11-game span came in a game Giannis Antetokounmpo missed with an injury. Milwaukee is 11-14 ATS and 10-15 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.

The Heat have lost four of their last five games (1-4 ATS) including back-to-back losses against the Bucks Saturday and Memphis Grizzlies Monday. Miami is 14-11 ATS and 15-10 O/U with the ninth-best net rating.

This is the third game between these teams this season and the home side pummeled the visitors in their first two meetings. The Over cashed in each game.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA December 8 breakdown

Bucks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Bucks -290 (bet $290 to win $100) | Heat +225 (bet $100 to win $225)
Against the spread (ATS): Bucks -6.5 (-110) | Heat +6.5 (-110)
Over/Under (O/U): 216.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Bucks at Heat key injuries

Bucks

Nothing affecting gambling odds.

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (tailbone) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Bucks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 117, Heat 103

Money line

PASS because even though Milwaukee should roll past Miami, the Bucks are too expensive for any NBA regular-season favorite. All it takes is an in-game injury or a cold shooting night for any team to lose.

Against the spread

BET BUCKS -6.5 (-110) because Milwaukee is a 60-win team, in my opinion, and 60-win teams crush injury-ravaged opponents like Miami.

Injuries have muted the excitement of this matchup between two budding rivals that have eliminated each other from consecutive postseasons. There’s no love lost between these two and I don’t see the Bucks taking it easy on the Heat just because they are banged up.

Milwaukee blasted Miami this past weekend without Giannis in the lineup. With Giannis projected to start, the Heat have to pick their poison with Giannis or F Khris Middleton. Miami wing P.J. Tucker can only guard one of them and he’ll probably get lit up in this matchup either way.

Granted, this is an ultra-square play because everyone in the market is betting Milwaukee here.

However, aside from the “fade the public” angle and a random terrible shooting night from the Bucks, what are the pro-Heat arguments?

I’ll just BET the BUCKS -6.5 (-110) for 1 unit and be somewhat surprised if it doesn’t cash.

Over/Under

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-112) for a small wager because I much prefer the Milwaukee side more than the total in this contest.

However, I don’t see the Bucks having any problems scoring points against the Heat who are without their two best defensive players.

Milwaukee also allows the most 3-point attempts per game and Miami has several 3-point shooters that can get hot.

If the Bucks are hammering the Heat, I could see the OVER 216.5 (-112) cashing late from some garbage-time 3-pointers by Miami.

That said, I only “LEAN” to the OVER 216.5 (-108) because the Heat are also missing two of their best offensive players and the Bucks are sixth in defensive efficiency.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s San Antonio Spurs at Golden State Warriors odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Golden State Warriors (19-3) host the San Antonio Spurs (7-13) Saturday at Chase Center for an 8:30 p.m. ET tip-off. Below, we look at the Spurs vs. Warriors odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Golden State got revenge on the Phoenix Suns with a 118-96 home victory Friday after the Suns snapped the Warriors’ seven-game winning streak Tuesday. The Warriors are 16-5-1 ATS and 6-16 O/U with the top net rating in the NBA.

San Antonio has won the last three games over the Boston Celtics, Washington Wizards and Portland Trail Blazers following a six-game losing skid. The Spurs are 11-9 ATS and 9-10-1 O/U with the 15th-best net rating.

The Warriors won and covered two of their three regular-season meetings with the Spurs last year and the Under cashed in all three contests.

Spurs at Warriors odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Spurs +310 (bet $100 to win $310) | Warriors -410 (bet $410 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Spurs +8.5 (-120) | Warriors -8.5 (-105)
Over/Under (O/U): 217.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Spurs at Warriors key injuries

Spurs

SF Devin Vassell (thigh) doubtful

Warriors

SF Andre Iguodala (knee) doubtful

Spurs at Warriors odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Warriors 110, Spurs 105

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Spurs (+310) because that’s a chunky payout and San Antonio’s spread is the side I’m on.

Maybe if I like what I’m seeing from the Spurs I’ll make an in-game wager. But, preflop, I’ll PASS.

Against the spread

GIMME the SPURS +8.5 (-120) because there are more pro-San Antonio arguments. Obviously, everyone is going to be betting on the Warriors in this game and it’s hard to blame them. But, if it were that easy everyone would be a professional sports gambler.

Furthermore, the Spurs are better than their record indicates. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, San Antonio has a minus-2.5 win differential based on net efficiency. Essentially, the Spurs should have 2.5 more wins.

Moreover, San Antonio has a winning ATS record and is 6-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record. Also, San Antonio is trending in the right direction.

Over the past two weeks, the Spurs are 3-2 overall with the eighth-best efficiency differential (plus-5.5) and the second-best ATS margin (plus-11.2), according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

In addition, could this be a letdown game for Golden State? Because the Warriors just played a back-to-back miniseries with the second-best team in the West.

And Golden State’s previous three games were against playoff teams from last season. On the other hand, I’m assuming the Spurs will have peak motivation for their meeting with the best team in the NBA.

The SPURS +8.5 (-120) is my favorite wager in this game.

Over/Under

BET a small wager on the UNDER 217.5 (-107) for some trendy reasons and betting market rationale.

First of all, the Spurs are 1-8-1 O/U with a minus-13.4 margin vs. the total and the Warriors are 4-9 O/U with a minus-4.4 margin vs. the total. On top of that, we are seeing “reverse line movement” (RLM) in the Under’s direction.

According to Pregame.com and the Yahoo! Sports App, a vast majority of the action is on the Over. But, oddsmakers have lowered the total from 219.5 on the lookahead line down to the current number.

It’s a red flag whenever see sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper. That gives off a trap game vibe. Let’s fade the market movement and BET UNDER 217.5 (-107).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Miami Heat (14-9) visit the “Cream City” Saturday for an 8 p.m. ET game against the Milwaukee Bucks (14-9) at the Fiserv Forum. Below, we look at the Heat vs. Bucks odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Miami is 3-3 overall and 2-4 ATS over its past six games with the latest being a 113-104 road win over the Indiana Pacers Friday. The Heat are 14-9 ATS and 14-9 O/U with the fifth-best net rating.

Milwaukee had its eight-game winning streak snapped Thursday in a 97-93 road loss to the Toronto Raptors in a game Giannis Antetokounmpo missed. The Bucks are 10-13 ATS and 8-15 O/U with the seventh-best net rating.

Milwaukee swept Miami in the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs last season (4-0 ATS) and won two of three regular-season meetings. However, the Heat blasted the Bucks 137-95 in their first meeting this season Oct. 21.

Heat at Bucks odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:50 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +220 (bet $100 to win $220) | Bucks -280 (bet $280 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Heat +6.5 (-112) | Bucks -6.5 (-108)
Over/Under (O/U): 211.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Heat at Bucks key injuries

Heat

SF Jimmy Butler (back) out
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) out

Bucks

SF Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) doubtful
PG George Hill (knee) probable

Heat at Bucks odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Bucks 116, Heat 112

Money line

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Heat (+220) because Miami plus the points is the side I’m on. Plus I think the Heat are too well-coached to be getting more than +200 against a team missing its best player.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is having an MVP-caliber season thus far and we’ve seen how mediocre the Bucks can be when they are without one of their Big 3.

Against the spread

“LEAN” to the HEAT +6.5 (-112) based on the rationale above, but I’d wait to get an official announcement on Giannis’s game status before placing a wager.

If Giannis plays, the Bucks will probably smack the Heat. If Giannis doesn’t play then we’ll still get points with the Heat.

Furthermore, Giannis grades in the 99th percentile of on/off court efficiency differential, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

On top of that, Milwaukee is 0-2 overall without Giannis in the lineup and 3-5 overall when Khris Middleton was sidelined. The point is, the Bucks are far less profitable if one of these guys isn’t in the lineup.

For what it’s worth, there’s also a “fade the market” angle to play here since a vast majority of bettors are backing Milwaukee despite the probable absence of Giannis.

Also, Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra is one of the best coaches in the league, which is a major reason the Heat are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.

Granted, the Heat are without their two best players but there’s just more value in the road underdog in this spot.

“LEAN” the HEAT +6.5 (-115) pending Giannis’s final game status.

Over/Under

BET the OVER 211.5 (-115) for 1 unit as my favorite play in this contest because of how these teams match up. For instance, these Heat-Bucks games in recent seasons have been 3-point shootouts.

Since the beginning of 2019, Miami has an average 3-point attempt rate of 45.6% and Milwaukee has a 43.4% average 3-point attempt rate in their 16 head-to-head meetings, which includes the postseason. To put that into perspective, those rates would be in top-5 across the NBA this year.

Moreover, I think the Heat picks up the pace and tries to turn this game into a 3-point shootout to compensate for Butler and Adebayo’s absence. Miami knows it’ll be significantly outgunned and the Heat’s best chance to win this game is to get hot from behind the arc.

Because Milwaukee is one of the fastest-paced, highest 3-point shooting teams in the Association, I think the Bucks will engage in a high-octane game.

Lastly, the market is hammering the Under in this game presumably because Giannis will most likely be out. But, you could make the argument Giannis’ absence affects Milwaukee’s defense as much as its offense.

Plus roughly 80% of the action is on the Over according to both the Yahoo! Sports app and Pregame.com. Eight out of 10 bettors don’t beat the House. And all the pro-Over money has steamed the Heat-Bucks total down four points from the opener. I’ll fade the market and all that line movement.

BET THE OVER 211.5 (-115).

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s Cleveland Cavaliers at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Cleveland Cavaliers (11-10) head down to “South Beach” for a 7:30 p.m. ET tip-off with the Miami Heat (13-8) at FTX Center. Below, we look at the Cavaliers vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions, and bets.

Cleveland has won back-to-back games against the Orlando Magic and Dallas Mavericks following a five-game losing skid. The Cavs are 14-7 ATS and 7-14 O/U with the 11th-best net rating (plus-1.4).

Miami has alternated between winning and losing over its last six games with the latest being a 120-111 home loss to the Denver Nuggets Monday. However, the Heat were without both F Jimmy Butler and G Tyler Herro for that contest. Miami is 13-8 ATS and 13-8 O/U with the fourth-best net rating (plus-5.3).

The Heat hammered the Cavs in all three regular-season meetings last year, each by a double-digit margin and the Over has cashed in six straight Heat-Cavs meetings.

Also see: Bet Slippin’ Podcast: NBA December 1 breakdown

Cavaliers at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:48 p.m. ET.

Money line: Cavaliers +160 (bet $100 to win $160) | Heat -200 (bet $200 to win $100)
Against the spread (ATS): Cavaliers +4.5 (-107) | Heat -4.5 (-115)
Over/Under (O/U): 206.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

PLAY: Free, daily sports pick’em contests. Play now!

Cavaliers at Heat key injuries

Cavaliers

SF Cedi Osman (back) out
SF Dean Wade (calf) out

Heat

SG Tyler Herro (rest) probable
SF Jimmy Butler (back) questionable
C Bam Adebayo (thumb) questionable
C Dewayne Dedmon (knee) questionable

Cavaliers at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Cavaliers 107, Heat 102

Money line

Slight “LEAN” to the CAVALIERS (+160) for a tiny wager — if at all — because I like Cleveland plus the points and see a little value in the underdog’s money line.

It would be best to get any Cavs money line wagers in sooner rather than later because if Butler, Adebayo and Dedmon get announced out, the payout will plummet. That said, the much wiser bet in this game is Cleveland’s spread.

Against the spread

BET the CAVALIERS +4.5 (-107) for 1 unit because they’ve covered four straight games and the four Cleveland lost ATS prior were well within reach.

From Nov. 13-18, the Cavaliers were 0-4 ATS against the Boston Celtics (twice), Brooklyn Nets and Golden State Warriors. However, Cleveland missed an ATS win by a combined two points in both games against Boston and six combined points versus Golden State and Brooklyn.

In their meeting with the Warriors Nov. 18, the Cavs were without three starters and actually won three of the four quarters. Cleveland failed to cover due to Golden State outscoring the Cavs 26-8 in the fourth quarter.

Furthermore, Cleveland has the second-best cover rate as an underdog at 12-5-1 ATS and is 7-3-1 ATS at home this season.

Cleveland generates the third-most shot attempts off of cuts according to ShotQuality.com and attempts the fourth-highest rate of field goals at the rim according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Whereas Miami is dead-last in defensive shot quality vs. field goals off of cuts and 28th in defensive field goal percentage vs. shots at the rim.

Finally, the Cavs have been hit by “sharp money” as Cleveland has been lowered from an 8-point underdog on the lookahead line down to the current price.

The CAVALIERS +4.5 (-107) is my favorite bet in this game.

Over/Under

PASS with a slight “LEAN” to the OVER 206.5 (-110) since that has been hit by sharp money as well.

There is some basketball logic to taking the Over in Cavaliers-Heat. Cleveland generates a lot of its offense off of cuts and shots at the rim.

Miami’s defense gives up easy looks off of cuts and doesn’t have the best rim protection. Plus if the Heat are without three frontcourt players then the Cavs should have an easier time getting to the rim. Also, Cleveland doesn’t defend post-up offense well and Miami thrives out of the post offensively.

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1622]

Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Tuesday’s Miami Heat at Philadelphia 76ers NBA betting odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (4-4) are in the City of Brotherly Love Tuesday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off against the Philadelphia 76ers (7-4) at the Wells Fargo Center. Below, we analyze the Heat-76ers NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

Miami’s scheduled game against the Boston Celtics this past Sunday was postponed since the Heat didn’t have a minimum of eight players active for the contest due to COVID-related absences. In their last game on Jan. 9, the Heat held off the Washington Wizards last night in a 128-124 road win but couldn’t get the cover as 7.5-point favorites.

A short-handed 76ers team was clubbed last night by the Atlanta Hawks 112-94 as 6-point road underdogs. Philadelphia was missing a few starters such as All-Star Ben Simmons and 3-point marksman SG Seth Curry and their offensive tanked because of it. The 76ers shot 40.2% from the field and 22.2% from three in the loss to the Hawks.

Both rosters are without several key contributors and Miami’s team has taken the biggest hit. For what it’s worth, the Heat have beaten the 76ers in three straight and Miami won last year’s season series 3-1 (2-1-1 ATS).

Heat at 76ers: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:45 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat +275 (bet $100 to win $275) | 76ers -350 (bet $350 to win $100)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat +8.5 (-120) | 76ers -8.5 (+100)
Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

Heat at 76ers: Key Injuries

Heat

C Bam Adebayo (COVID-19) out
PG Goran Dragic (COVID-19) out
SF Jimmy Butler (COVID-19) out
SF Moe Harkless (COVID-19) out
SG Avery Bradley (COVID-19) out
PG Kendrick Nunn (COVID-19) out

76ers

PG Ben Simmons (knee) probable
SG Furkan Korkmaz (thigh) out
SG Seth Curry (COVID-19) out
SF Tobias Harris (COVID-19) out
SG Shake Milton (COVID-19) out
SF Matisse Thybulle (COVID-19) out

Special NBA Betting Promotion!

Place a $1 bet on either team’s money line, WIN an additional $100 (in free bets) if either team hits a 3-pointer during the game today. Promotion available in CO, IN, NJ, TN and WV. IA and PA residents, don’t miss BetMGM‘s risk-free, first-bet offer! MI residents, BetMGM is coming to your state soon — register early for special promotion.

Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Heat at 76ers: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

76ers 116, Heat 102

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. The Heat-76ers handicap boils down to who has more available productive players. So it’s either a bet on Philadelphia or a pass. However, there’s no way you can pay this much for a 76ers outright win regardless of the Heat’s situation.

Against the spread (ATS)

We haven’t seen how the Heat will look with all their missing players, but I have to fade them given what we saw last night out of the 76ers. C Joel Embiid played really well vs. the Hawks yesterday, but Philadelphia got smacked around.

The 76ers appear to be getting Simmons back, and their rookie PG Tyrese Maxey has stepped up offensively since Curry has been sidelined. Maxey has scored 15, 36 and 16 with at least 50% field-goal shooting in each outing over his past three games.

Philadelphia simply has more bodies and I lean 76ERS +8.5 (+100) for a half-unit.

Over/Under (O/U)

According to Pregame.com, money is pouring in on the Over in Heat-76ers and I’m following the money here. There’s absolutely no defense in the Heat’s backcourt so the 76ers are going to get into the paint at will. Miami will have to chuck threes – because how else will the Heat score points?

GIMME OVER 208.5 (-115) for 1 unit.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

3 observations: Joel Embiid returns, but Sixers blown out by Hawks (Sixers Wire)
Hoops Hype Rumors: Heat | 76ers

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]

Miami Heat at Boston Celtics odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Sunday’s Miami Heat at Boston Celtics NBA betting odds and lines, with basketball picks, tips and predictions.

The Miami Heat (4-4) are in Beantown Sunday for a 7 p.m. ET tip-off against the Boston Celtics (7-3) in the TD Garden. Below, we analyze the Heat-Celtics NBA betting odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

The Heat held off the Washington Wizards last night in a 128-124 road win but couldn’t get the cover as 7.5-point favorites. The shooting percentages were pretty equal between the two but, the major differences in the game were Miami out-rebounding the 67-48, and the Heat had crisper ball movement, throwing seven more assists than the Wizards.

Boston also beat the Wizards albeit more convincingly—a 116-107 win at home—but covered as 3.5-point favorites. Celtics’ stars balled out as usual: Jayson Tatum scored a team-high 32 points on 14-of-27 shooting and Jaylen Brown put up 27 points adding 13 rebounds and 5 assists.

Elephant in the room: This should be a revenge spot for the Celtics after being eliminated in six games by Miami in last season’s Eastern Conference Finals but, Boston’s injury report scrolls. For what it’s worth, Boston was 2-1 last season’s regular-season series vs. Miami (2-1 ATS) but 2-0 in non-bubble games.

Heat at Celtics: Betting odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:30 p.m. ET.

Money line: Heat -300 (bet $300 to win $100) | Celtics +230 (bet $100 to win $230)
Against the spread/ATS: Heat -7.5 (-110) | Celtics +7.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 212.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

Heat at Celtics: Key Injuries

Heat

C Meyers Leonard (shoulder) probable

Celtics

SF Jayson Tatum (COVID) out
C Robert Williams (COVID) out
PF Grant Williams (COVID) out
SF Jaylen Brown (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Semi Ojeleye (health and safety protocols) questionable
PF Tristan Thompson (health and safety protocols) questionable
PG Kemba Walker (knee) out

Special NBA Betting Promotion!

Place your legal, online sports bets at BetMGM! Terms and conditions apply. Bet now!

Heat at Celtics: Odds, betting lines, predictions and picks

Prediction

Heat 117, Celtics 101

Money line (ML)

PASS ON THE MONEY LINE. Miami is the right side in this one, but it’s too expensive to bet Heat (-300) for an outright win.

Against the spread (ATS)

Miami is trying to get on the plus side of the win-loss column, and this is a bit of a revenge spot. Granted, it’s not a full-fledged revenge spot given it’s only the regular season, and the Celtics are without Tatum.

But it’s not just the Tatum loss that the Celtics have to sweat, Boston is also without Kemba Walker and Brown (the Celtics’ leading scorer). In fact, this Boston injury report is nearly as lengthy as the New England Patriots’ in Week 17.

There’s no question we’ll get a full effort out of Boston with head coach Brad Stevens working the gears, but to me, it’s more of a question of “how long can the Celtics keep this game within a single-digit margin?”

This line has already moved up from Boston laying 3.5 points on the opener and every schnook and square are going to take Miami tonight. The best we can hope for is that the three-game NFL Wild Card Weekend slate distracts bettors enough so they don’t push this line past my buy-price.

For now, I’d TAKE HEAT -7.5 (-110) for 1.5 units.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS ON THE TOTAL with a lean on Under 212.5 (-110). But, aside from the obvious (the absences of Boston’s best scorers), I don’t have a strong feel for the total.

Want some action on this one? Place a bet at BetMGM now. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Also see:

Boston’s Kemba Walker cleared to begin practicing with team (Celtics Wire)
Hoops Hype Rumors: Heat | Celtics

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage.

[lawrence-newsletter]

[lawrence-auto-related count=3 category=1368]