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The Miami Dolphins (1-0) travel to meet the New England Patriots (0-1) for Sunday Night Football at Gillette Stadium. Kickoff for the Week 2 matchup is 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC). Below, we analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Dolphins vs. Patriots odds, and make our expert NFL picks and predictions.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa fired out of the chute last week in Miami’s 36-34 win over the Los Angeles Chargers, as he passed for 466 yards, 3 TDs and 1 INT. WR Tyreek Hill went bonkers with 11 grabs for 215 yards and 2 TDs on 15 targets. The Fins were able to roll up 536 total yards of offense in the road victory.
The Patriots weren’t as fortunate, falling 25-20 at home against the visiting Philadelphia Eagles as 3.5-point underdogs. New England showed some fight as it slipped behind 16-0 after the 1st Quarter, outscoring Philly 14-0 in the 2nd Quarter to make things interesting. The 2nd Half went in favor of the defending NFC champs, however.
The home team won both matchups last season, with the Pats squeaking out a 23-21 win in Foxborough on New Year’s Day. Miami has won 4 of the past 5 meetings and has gone 5-0 against the spread (ATS) during the 5-game run. The Under has outpaced the Over 4-2 in the past 6 in the series.
As far as the weather is concerned, Hurricane Lee dealt a glancing blow to the New England area in the early part of the weekend. The weather pulled out of the area Saturday, and it should be partly cloudy with just a slight breeze and temperatures in the upper 60s for kickoff.
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Dolphins at Patriots odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:36 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Dolphins -154 (bet $154 to win $100) | Patriots +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dolphins -2.5 (-120) | Patriots +2.5 (-102)
- Over/Under (O/U): 46.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Dolphins at Patriots key injuries
Dolphins
- OL Terron Armstead (ankle, back, knee) questionable
- S Elijah Campbell (knee) questionable
- LB Jaelan Phillips (back) questionable
Patriots
- C David Andrews (hamstring) questionable
- OL Trent Brown (concussion) questionable
- DB Jonathan Jones (ankle) questionable
- OL Mike Onwenu (ankle) questionable
- WR DeVante Parker (knee) questionable
- OL Sidy Sow (concussion) questionable
- OL Cole Strange (knee) questionable
Dolphins at Patriots picks and predictions
Prediction
Patriots 25, Dolphins 23
Moneyline
The PATRIOTS (+130) are a solid play as short ‘dogs at home. It seems that everybody and their mother is picking the Dolphins to win this game, and it’s generally a good rule of thumb never to side with the public, especially when the percentage of wagers one way is rather decisive.
However, it’s more than just the public side. Head coach Bill Belichick will do everything in his power to throw a blanket on Hill, challenging the Dolphins pass game to beat his team. Fortunately for Miami, it has WR Jaylen Waddle, who should see an uptick in targets and production as a result. Hill certainly won’t get blanked, but he won’t go off like last week, either.
Against the spread
PATRIOTS +2.5 (-102) is the lean, although they’re a much more attractive play straight up on the moneyline.
You’re going against the public in siding with the home side, and you’re going against a 5-0 ATS trend in favor of the Dolphins in the past 5 meetings. However, I like New England at home and Belichick is certain to have his defense swarming against Miami’s air raid attack.
Over/Under
OVER 46.5 (-110) is the lean, but go lightly.
The Dolphins and Chargers combined for 70 points in Los Angeles and New England cashed the Over (43.5) against Philadelphia on its home field in Week 1. Weather won’t be a factor, so look for the passing game to be somewhat effective on both sides.
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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.
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