Tag: Mets Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (39-36) welcome the New York Mets (34-41) to Citizens Bank Park Saturday for the 2nd of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1.

The Phillies were swept by the Mets earlier in the season but won 5-1 Friday evening. They are 7-2 over their last 9 games and 20-13 at home this season.

The Mets, on the other hand, are just 17-26 on the road this season and 3-7 over their last 10 games. New York has lost 5 of its last 6 and has slipped to 4th in the NL East.

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Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Scherzer (6-2, 4.04 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 64 2/3 IP.

  • The 3-time Cy Young Award winner is coming off an 8-inning, 1-earned run appearance against Houston on June 19
  • The Mets are 8-4 in his 12 starts
  • Scherzer has struggled as of late, allowing 5 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts.

Sanchez (0-0, 3.24 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 8 1/3 IP.

  • The Phillies are 2-0 in Sanchez’s 2 starts this season
  • He allowed 0 earned runs in 4 innings against the As his last time on the mound

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Phillies at home here, especially considering Scherzer has struggled as of late. New York also hasn’t played well on the road. Despite that, I’d take the run line for the better value.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES +1.5 (-150).

Philadelphia is 4-2 on the run line this season as a home underdog.

New York, on the flip side, is one of the worst teams in the MLB as a favorite, just 14-35. The Mets are also the worst team in the MLB on the run line following a loss at just 14-26.

Given their struggles on the road as well and the value on the Phillies as underdogs, take PHILLIES +1.5 (-150).

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9 (+100).

Despite not having played well lately, Scherzer remains one of the most awarded pitchers in baseball right now. Sanchez is also playing at a high level.

The Phillies have gone Under in 6 straight games and have scored 5 or fewer in 5 in a row. They are 28-40-7 O/U on the season. The Mets are 1-2 O/U in their last 3 games and are 33-38-4 O/U on the season.

Considering the trends, back the UNDER 9 (+100).

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (34-40) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-36) open up a 3-game set Friday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0

The Mets dropped 2 of 3 to the Astros in Houston earlier in the week and are scuffling at just 7-13 over the last 20. They’re now 14 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. They’ve had the Phillies’ number, though, at 17-5 over the last 2 seasons.

The Phils have lost 2 in a row after a 6-game winning streak. They are 7-3 and 18-12 over the last 10 and 30 games, respectively. The Phillies are at 19-13 at home and 19-23 on the road. They’re going to have to play better within the division than 5-10 if they hope to make another run.

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Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Senga (6-4, 3.53 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and a 11.0 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
  • 1 career start vs. Phillies: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K May 30 at home

Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and a 7.7 K/9 in 77 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K last Friday against the Oakland Athletics
  • 3 career starts vs. Mets: 0-2, 3.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 11 K in 14 1/3 IP

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline

I like the Mets here because Senga is really tough on lefties with a 2.02 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He has also given up just 5 extra-base hits in 146 at-bats to lefties this year. If you can contain Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, you have a good chance. And the Mets swept the Phils May 29-June 1.

I’ll take the METS +100.

Run line/Against the spread

Another reason I like the Mets is because Walker’s WHIP is a bit of fool’s gold. He has a .274 BABIP, which is below his 11-year career’s average. His walk rate is up, and his K-rate below his career average. That tells me he’s getting lucky on where the ball has been hit. 1B Pete Alonso homered Wednesday, and it was his 1st since he came off the IL June 18. So he could be about to heat up.

The Mets have 9 wins since May 23, and 8 of them have been by multiple runs. There’s enough data here for me to take a chance on METS -1.5 (+155).

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Over/Under

These have not been Over teams. In fact, the Over is just 3-7 in their last 10 meetings with one another. Senga has been a part of an Under cash in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Mets won 2-0 in his only start against the Phils.

I’ll take the UNDER 9.5 (-115) without hesitation.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (18-9) visit Citizens Bank Park to open a 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (11-14) Thursday. The series opener is slated for 6:45 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets lead 4-2

The Mets are coming off a 2-2 series split at home vs. the Atlanta Braves. New York has been exceptional away from home, going 9-4 and outscoring opponents 61-43.

The Phillies are coming off back-to-back home losses in a 2-game set with the Texas Rangers. Philadelphia lost 2 of 3 at New York last weekend and has dropped 4 of its last 5.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Walker (0-0, 0.00 ERA) is tabbed for his third start of the season. He has a 0.57 WHIP, 2.6 BB/9 and 6.4 K/9 through 7 IP.

  • Has faced these Phillies in his only other two starts (April 11, 30): 7 IP, 2H, 0R, 2 BB, 5K.
  • Current Phillies bats own an aggregate .844 OPS against him.

Nola (1-3, 3.90 ERA) has clocked a 0.94 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 through 27 2/3 IP.

  • Facing New York for a second straight outing and a third time in 2022. Owns a 3.55 ERA across his last 5 starts against the Mets, including a 5.79 ERA (6 ER, 9 1/3 IP) and 0-2 record this year.
  • Owns a career Citizens Bank Park ERA of 3.14 alongside a 1.07 WHIP and a K/BB ratio of 4.4 to 1.

Mets at Phillies odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -170 (bet $170 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL): Mets +1.5 (-150) | Phillies -1.5 (+122)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

Nola is in a likable spot at home and with a set of surface numbers that don’t match up with better underlying support figures. The Mets may be getting a bit too much credit for their performance to date against right-handers due to a .320 batting average on balls in play.

Walker threw just 73 pitches in his last start and is not stretched out.

Peg some MODERATE VALUE ON PHILADELPHIA (-170).

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Run line/Against the spread

Both bullpens yield a lot of fly balls, and with a batter’s wind in the forecast, the Phils winning by a larger margin is enough in play.

TAKE PHILADELPHIA -1.5 (+122).

Over/Under

While there’s a lean on the Over 8.5 (-105), there’s just not enough ammo on either side to move the needle. PASS.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (4-2) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (3-2) Wednesday for the finale of their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. First pitch is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets look for their second series win of the season in this set finale. New York was held to just 3 hits Tuesday in a 2-0 victory as it limited Philadelphia to just 2 doubles and 4 singles with 10 runners left on base.

The Phillies struck out 12 times against Mets pitching Tuesday while failing to draw a walk. After scoring 9 runs in the regular-season opener Friday, Philadelphia has plated 10 total runs across the past four outings.

Mets at Phillies: Projected starters

Mets RHP Max Scherzer vs. Phillies RHP Aaron Nola

Scherzer won his Mets debut Friday in Washington, one of his former teams, yielding 3 runs and 3 hits with 1 walk and 6 strikeouts across 6 innings.

  • Posted an 8-2 record, 2.05 ERA and .163 opponent batting average across 14 daytime starts in 2021 across 92 1/3 IP.
  • Dominated the Phillies in 2021, posting a 3-0 record and 1.23 ERA with 28 strikeouts across 22 IP over four starts.

Nola wasn’t terribly sharp in his Friday’s opener against Oakland, but he won, allowing 4 runs on 4 hits and no walks with 7 strikeouts across 6 IP.

  • Went 3-1 with a 4.08 ERA over 68 1/3 IP across 12 starts during the day in 2021, including his only complete game of the season.
  • Turned in a 1-1 record, 2.25 ERA and .241 opponent batting average with 33 strikeouts over 20 IP in four starts vs. NYM in 2021.

Mets at Phillies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+155) | Phillies +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Mets at Phillies prediction and picks

Prediction

Mets 3, Phillies 2

Money line

The METS (-105) scratched out a low-scoring win Tuesday, and you can expect similar results with Scherzer on the hill in this getaway day game. Runs should be at a premium with two aces on the bump, but New York proved to be capable of more timely hits in the middle game.

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Run line/Against the spread

The Phillies +1.5 (-190) will cost you two times your potential return, and it’s just not worth that kind of risk. If you like them with Nola on the hill in the finale, just play them straight up.

AVOID.

Over/Under

I wouldn’t make a habit of betting the UNDER 8.5 (-122) in games at the bandbox known as Citizens Bank Park, but we saw just 2 total runs Tuesday, and there isn’t a lot more offense expected with Scherzer and Nola expected to throw up plenty of donuts.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (3-2) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (3-1) Tuesday for the second game of their three-game set at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m (MLB Network). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

The Mets have dropped both of the past two outings after winning the first three games of the new season. That includes a 5-4 setback in the series opener in Philadelphia as the total pushed Monday.

The Phillies picked up the 5-4 win behind LHP Ranger Suarez in the opener. Philadelphia has averaged 4.8 runs per game through four outings while yielding 3.8 runs per outing.

Mets at Phillies: Projected starters

Mets RHP Tylor Megill vs. Phillies RHP Zack Wheeler

Megill picked up the win Thursday in Washington, allowing just 3 hits with 0 walks and 6 strikeouts across 5 scoreless innings.

  • Went 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA with a .260 opponent batting average in 41 2/3 IP in 8 starts on the road in 2021 while striking out 41 batters.
  • Yielded 4 runs, 5 hits and 1 walk across 4 2/3 innings in a loss at Philadelphia last August in his only career appearance against the Phillies.

Wheeler (14-10, 2.78 ERA in 2021) posted a 1.01 WHIP with 247 strikeouts across 32 starts in a tremendous 2021 season.

  • Went 7-5 with a 2.38 ERA and .200 opponent batting average with 149 strikeouts across 124 2/3 IP in 18 starts at home.
  • Was 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA across 34 1/3 IP over five starts against the New York Mets, his former team, in 2021.

Mets at Phillies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:20 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Mets at Phillies prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 2

Money line

The PHILLIES (-155) won the series opener, keeping up their mastery of the Mets. Philadelphia is 20-8 in the past 28 home games against New York while going 7-1 in the past eight meetings overall. It’s a good bet that the good times will continue for Philly with Wheeler on the bump.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+130) are worth a small wager on the run line.

Their first two wins of the season were by more than 2 runs, but the series opener was a 1-run game, so be careful. Still, with Wheeler, they should get really good pitching in a lower-scoring game.

Over/Under

The UNDER 8.5 (-102) is the lean after the total pushed in the series opener. Wheeler kept scores down last season, and the Under is 8-1-2 in the past 11 meetings while going 3-0-1 in the past four battles in Philadelphia.

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Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (3-1) take on the Philadelphia Phillies (2-1) Monday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:45 p.m. (FS1). Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

This is the first meeting of 2022 between these NL East rivals. These teams met 19 times in 2021, with the Phillies winning 10 of the meetings.

The Mets won the first three games of the season in Washington, outscoring the Nats 17-4, before losing the series finale, 4-2, Sunday.

The Phillies won the first two games of the season in an interleague series against the Oakland A’s, outscoring the opposition 14-7 before falling 4-1 in the finale Sunday.

Mets at Phillies: Projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Walker (7-11, 4.47 ERA in 2021) makes his first start of the season. He recorded 146 strikeouts with a .225 opponent batting average in 159 IP across 29 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Walker was 3-7 with a 5.82 ERA in 14 starts on the road across 68 IP, with the opposition hitting .258 against him.
  • Walker went 0-2 with a 3.76 ERA across five starts against Philadelphia in 2021, striking out 21 batters across 26.2 IP.

Suarez (8-5, 1.36 ERA) makes his first start of the season. He posted an impressive .194 opponent batting average across 106 IP with 107 strikeouts in 12 starts and 27 relief appearances in 2021.

  • Suarez went 6-1 with three saves in 14 relief appearances and eight starts with a complete game in 65.2 IP at home in 2021.
  • Suarez faced the Mets three times, including one start, while going 0-1 with a 1.93 ERA across 4 2/3 IP last season.

Mets at Phillies odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:45 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -155 (bet $155 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-160) | Phillies -1.5 (+130)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Mets at Phillies prediction and picks

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 4

Money line

The PHILLIES (-155) are worth a play as moderate favorites in the series opener. Philadelphia dominated New York last season, winning six of the final seven meetings, while going 5-2 in the final seven meetings at “The Vault”. Suarez looked like the real deal, and he’ll do a good job against Walker, who struggled on the road in 2021.

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Run line/Against the spread

The PHILLIES -1.5 (+130) are worth a roll of the dice on the run line. In each of the team’s first two wins of the season, the Phils also won by at least two runs in each outing. Look for the Phils to jump all over Walker early and often.

Over/Under

The OVER 9.5 (-107) is the lean, but play it lightly.

The wind will be blowing out to straightaway center field at 9-12 mph, so that could aid the hitters. It’s always difficult to play an Under at a bandbox like Citizens Bank Park anyway, but especially so when the wind is blowing out. Forget the fact the Under was 6-0-1 in the final seven meetings between these teams last season.

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If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Kevin J. Erickson on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (72-77) host the Philadelphia Phillies (76-72) Sunday for the finale of their three-game series at Citi Field. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Phillies lead 10-8.

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. He is 10-7 with a 3.49 ERA (165 IP, 64 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 across 27 starts and one relief appearance for the Phillies and Texas Rangers.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6-3, with 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 7 K Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs.
  • Gibson beat New York, 4-2, Aug. 6 with 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB and 3 K.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (144 PA): 4.81 FIP with a .328 batting average (BA), .379 wOBA, .378 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 16.7 K% and 86.0 mph exit velocity (EV).

LHP Rich Hill takes the ball for the Mets. Hill is 6-7 with a 3.88 ERA (144 IP, 62 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.2 K/9 over 28 starts and one relief appearance for the Mets and Tampa Bay Rays.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-0, with 5 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB and 4 K Monday against the St. Louis Cardinals.
  • Hill is 0-3 in nine starts and one relief outing with a 3.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 3.6 K/BB since joining the Mets.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster (58 PA): 1.36 FIP with a .204 BA, .216 wOBA, .243 xSLG, 27.6 K% and 89.1 mph EV.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 12:50 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Mets -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies +1.5 (-200) | Mets -1.5 (+160)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-130) because we have a “line freeze” in the betting market that favors New York, Hill’s advanced numbers against Philly’s lineup are more impressive than Gibson’s vs. the Mets and New York has been hitting better this month.

Roughly two-thirds of the action is on Philly’s money line but this line hasn’t budged since the opener, according to Pregame.com. What that tells me is oddsmakers would like to take more pro-Phillies money at this price. So my thought would be to do the opposite.

Furthermore, the Phillies are 21-25 vs. lefty starters and are 23rd in hard-contact rate against left-handed pitching. While Hill isn’t a top of the rotation guy for a playoff team, he has done well against Philadelphia’s lineup and grades in the 76th percentile in hard-hit rate.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because I don’t like New York’s money line enough to lay it with the Mets -1.5 (+160), even with the chunky payout, because New York is 17-38 ATS as a home favorite despite being 35-20 straight up in that situation.

Over/Under (O/U)

BET the UNDER 8.5 (-115) for 1 unit because the sharp side of the market is backing the Under whereas the public is backing the Over.

More than 70% of the cash is on the Under but nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Over. Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the crowd.

Also, these teams have a combined 4-12 O/U record when these starters take the mound, the Under is 5-0-1 in the last six Phillies-Mets games and Citi Field has the third-lowest runs scored by park factors.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The Philadelphia Phillies (75-72) stop by Citi Field Saturday to continue their three-game series with the New York Mets (72-76) at 7:15 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Phillies vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Philly beat New York 4-3 Friday in the series opener as Phillies ace Zack Wheeler earned a win with 5 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 1 BB and 6 K.

Season series: Phillies lead 7-4.

RHP Aaron Nola is Philly’s projected starter. Nola is 7-8 with a 4.58 ERA (163 IP, 83 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 11.2 K/9 over 29 starts.

  • Last outing: No-decision in Philly’s 5-4 home loss to the Colorado Rockies Sunday with 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 0 BB and 10 K.
  • Nola is 0-1 in three starts this year against New York with a 2.51 ERA (14 1/3 IP, 4 ER), 15 H, 4 BB and 24 K.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster: 3.39 FIP with a .245 batting average (BA), .319 wOBA, .348 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 30.0 K% and 86.2 mph exit velocity (EV) in 283 plate appearances (PA).

RHP Carlos Carrasco makes his 10th start for the Mets. Carrasco is 1-2 with a 5.59 ERA (38 2/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.29 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 this year.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 5 IP, 2 ER, 3 H, 4 BB and 5 K in a 7-6 home victory over the New York Yankees Sunday.
  • 2021 home splits: 0-1 with a 6.66 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 18 ER), 1.27 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in six starts.

Phillies at Mets odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Phillies -1.5 (+145) | Mets +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -122 | U: -102)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Philles 4

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the METS (-105) because we are getting “reverse line movement” in New York’s direction, Nola is less effective on the road and the Mets have hit much better this month than the Phillies.

For instance, according to Pregame.com, nearly 95% of the cash wagered is on the Phillies, but oddsmakers are moving their money line down from the -120 opener. It’s always a red flag in sports betting when sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

Also, Nola is just 3-5 in 16 road starts with a 5.56 ERA (3.45 road ERA), 1.24 WHIP (0.99 road WHIP) and 9.5 K/BB (4.1 K/BB on the road).

Finally, New York’s lineup has been a lot more productive in September. The Mets rank fourth in WAR, sixth in wOBA and seventh in wRC+ this month.

However, I can only “LEAN” METS (-105) because Carrasco has put together just one quality start and New York has lost five of its last six games, including four straight.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Slight “LEAN” to the METS +1.5 (-180) because I’d rather be greedy and bet New York’s money line at nearly even money.

But, the Mets on the run line is probably a better play since New York is 14-6 ATS as a home underdog while Philly has the second-worst cover rate as a road favorite at 6-24 ATS.

Furthermore, we have a “pros vs. joes” scenario in the betting market as there’s more money on New York’s run line but more bets have been placed on Philly covering (according to Pregame.com). Typically, it’s wiser in sports betting to follow the money especially when it’s flowing in the opposite direction as the public.

Lastly, this might be unconventional, but I wouldn’t rule out throwing the Mets +1.5 (-180) into a parlay with perhaps the Los Angeles Dodgers (-200) for a plus-money payout.

Over/Under (O/U)

PASS with a slight “lean” to the Over 7.5 (-122) because I’m not totally sold on either starter and have a hunch this total is just too low.

The reason the total is a no-go is I just don’t have a good enough read on the total and the presumed “sharp” money is on the Under whereas the public is betting Over. I don’t know what the “wiseguys” see, but I don’t want to fade them in this spot.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (56-52) travel to Citizens Bank Park Friday to start a three-game set with the Philadelphia Phillies (56-53) at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York has lost four of its last six games, and seven of the last 10, and is now just a half-game in front of Philly for first in the NL East. The Phillies are 12-9 since the All-Star Game but have won five straight games entering Friday.

Season series: Mets lead 8-5.

RHP Marcus Stroman makes his 23rd start for the Mets. Stroman is 7-10 with a 2.80 ERA (122 IP, 38 ER), 1.13 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9.

  • Last outing: Loss, 7-1, with 5 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 1 BB and 4 K against the Cincinnati Reds Sunday.
  • Stroman is 2-2 this season against Philly with a 1.35 ERA (20 IP, 3 ER), 1.05 WHIP and 2.8 K/BB in four starts.
  • vs. Phillies on the current roster (170 PA): 2.80 FIP with a .229 batting average (BA), .259 wOBA, .367 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 21.2 K% and 88.1 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Kyle Gibson is on the mound for the Phillies. Gibson is 7-3 with a 2.86 ERA (119 2/3 IP, 38 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 20 starts.

  • Last outing: Win, 15-4, with 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 2 BB and 5 K Sunday at the Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (75 PA): 5.49 FIP with a .354 BA, .425 wOBA, .430 xSLG, 22.7 K% and 85.9 mph EV.

Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 11:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-140) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under: 9.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 5

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the PHILLIES (-110) for a half unit because Philly has been raking lately and I’m higher on Gibson than Stroman in this spot. Also, Philly is 31-21 at home while New York is 23-32 on the road.

Philly’s lineup ranks second in WAR, third in wOBA, sixth in wRC+, and eighth in hard-contact rate over the last two weeks. On the other hand, New York’s lineup ranks in the bottom-10 in each of those categories in the past 14 days.

I’m hesitant to fully endorse the Phillies in this spot because their bullpen is terrible. Philly’s relievers have the fifth-worst FIP and home run per nine-inning rate and the ninth-worst K-BB%.

Usually, I’d be touting Philly’s First 5 Innings money line but Tipico Sportsbook only offers a three-way First 5 Innings money line so instead of chopping if it were tied after the 5th inning, we’d lose.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because the Phillies +1.5 (-180) is far too pricey considering how unreliable their bullpen has been. However, it’s a line I’ll keep my eye on throughout the day because Philly’s run line has a bit of value.

The reasons being the Phillies are an MLB-best 13-4 ATS as a home underdog and the Mets are 7-22 ATS with a minus-2.1 run line margin as a road favorite.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the OVER 9.5 (-112) for a half unit because the Over has cashed in seven of the last Mets-Phillies meetings in Philly and New York is 31-21-2 O/U on the road.

However, it’s only a slight “lean” since we are getting the worst of the number because the market has steamed this total up from the 8.5-run opener to the current price. I’m always leery about following a crowd in sports betting, which is another cause for concern with my OVER 9.5 (-112) lean.

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (10-11) and Philadelphia Phillies (13-14) wrap up their three-game series on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. First pitch is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET at Citizens Bank Park. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: Mets 5-3

Sunday is the rubber match of this series. The Phillies took Friday’s opener 2-1 and the Mets won 5-4 Saturday.

LHP David Peterson is New York’s projected starter for the finale. The southpaw is 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA (19 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.24 WHIP, 9.8 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 4 starts this season.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 3 K in a 2-1 Mets loss to the visiting Boston Red Sox Tuesday
  • 2021 vs. Phillies: 1-1, 6.30 ERA (10 IP, 7 ER), 10 H, 2 BB, 15 K in 2 starts
  • Career vs. Phillies: 1-1, 9.00 ERA (12 IP, 12 ER), 1.58 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in 3 starts

RHP Zach Eflin is penciled in to toe the bump for Philadelphia. He is 1-1 with a 3.58 ERA (32 2/3 IP, 13 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 7.4 K/9 and 0.6 BB/9 in 5 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 0 BB, 8 K in a 5-2 Phillies loss on the road at the St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • Career vs. Mets: 3-4, 5.21 ERA (57 IP, 33 ER), 1.32 WHIP, 7.9 K/9 in 11 starts, last facing them in 2019

MLB betting offers/promotions

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Mets at Phillies odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 9:40 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Phillies -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

PHILADELPHIA (-115) the STRONGEST PLAY – 1½ times your usual wager. New York’s offense is last in the NL with 3.0 runs scored per game.

Plus, the Mets might be without CF Brandon Nimmo and 3B J.D. Davis, who both exited Saturday’s game with hand injuries and are listed as day-to-day.

As mentioned above, this will be Peterson’s third start vs. New York this season. He yielded 6 earned runs in 4 innings of an 8-2 road loss April 7, but he bounced back seven days later. He held them to 1 earned run on 3 hits and no walks, while striking out 10 over 6 innings in a 5-1 home victory.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS. The Phillies (+1.5, -185) are a bit costly, while the Mets own the worst ATS record in the majors. Better to just AVOID.

ATS records: Mets 6-15 | Phillies 13-14

Over/Under (O/U)

Back the UNDER 8.5 (+100) to win 75% of 1 UNIT.

With the Mets’ hitting woes, the Under is 6-1-1 in their last 8 games. The Phillies are 4-2 to the Under in their last 6 outings.

O/U records: Mets 7-12-2 | Phillies 15-12

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Bet on this game now at BetMGM Sportsbook. For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

JOHNNY RECORD W-L SP ROI
2021 MLB 34-28-1 9-8-1 +2.855
2021 (all sports) 137-113-2 58-49-1 +16.405
*–SP: Strongest plays; ROI: Return on investment

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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