Mets Phillies odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (81-67) and Philadelphia Phillies (89-59) battle Sunday as they put a bow on a 3-game NL East series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 5-3

New York took the opener of this series 11-3 and then fell 6-4 Saturday. The setback in the 2nd game marked the end of a 3-game Mets win streak at Citizens.

On Saturday, the Phillies banged out 4 extra-base hits in winning for the 4th time in their last 5 games. Those 5 games were at home where Philadelphia owns a league-best 51-26 record.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Peterson (9-2, 2.98 ERA) is tabbed for his 19th start. He owns a 1.35 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 7.3 K/9 in 102 2/3 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 4 1/3 IP, 4 ER (5 R), 8 H, 2 BB, 2 K in 6-2 defeat at Toronto Blue Jays 6-2 Tuesday
Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 5.30 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.46 WHIP, 11.9 K/9 in 8 appearances (7 starts)

Sanchez (10-9, 3.33 ERA) is making his 29th start. He has a 1.24 WHIP, 2.0 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 through 165 IP.

Last outing: No-decision, 6 IP, 0 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 2-1 home win vs. Tampa Bay Rays Monday
Career vs. Mets: 1-2, 4.26 ERA (25 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 7 appearances (4 starts)

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Mets +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Phillies -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-175) | Phillies -1.5 (+145)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 6, Mets 5

Moneyline

New York is just 5-11 across its last 16 games vs. the PHILLIES (-150).

Peg Peterson as a fade candidate due to some favorable batting-average-on-balls-in-play numbers. Sanchez owns a wide gulf in his home-road splits: He’s logged a 2.11 ERA at Citizens and a 5.13 ERA elsewhere. Overall, he owns a 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP over his last 5 starts.

The Phillies are 51-26 at home but just 36-41 ATS in those games. PHILADELPHIA (-150) is worth a partial-unit play.

Run line/Against the spread

Look to the ML action for the best leverage: PASS.

Over/Under

Four of the last 5 Mets-Phillies games at Citizens have cashed on the Over. Six of Philadelphia’s last 8 games have hit the Over.

The lefty-lefty matchup on the mound plays into strengths for both lineups. Philadelphia (.792 OPS vs. lefties) and New York (.774 OPS vs. lefties) rank No. 1 and No. 4, respectively, in OPS against port-siders.

FanDuel Sportsbook has the best tag here. BACK THE OVER 8.5 (+100).

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (81-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-59) meet Saturday to continue a 3-game NL East series. The start time at Citizens Bank Park is slated for a 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network) 1st pitch. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-2

The Mets rode a 6-run 5th frame to an eventual 11-3 victory in Friday’s series opener. New York is 3-1 on their road trip and 6-1 across its last 7 games away from home.

The Phillies had a 3-game win streak snapped in Friday’s setback. Philadelphia is 8-3 over its last 11 at home.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Luis Severino vs. LHP Kolby Allard

Severino (10-6, 3.74 ERA) is making his 29th start. He owns a 1.25 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 7.8 K/9 through 166 IP across 28 starts.

Last outing: No-decision, 6 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 3-1 loss vs. Cincinnati Sunday
Career vs. Phillies: 1-0, 0.00 ERA (7 IP, 0 ER), 6 H, 0 BB, 9 K
Owns a 1.95 ERA over his last 5 starts

Allard (2-0, 3.50 ERA) is making his 4th start (5th appearance). He has a 1.33 WHIP, 1.0 BB/9 and 6.5 K/9 through 18 IP.

Last start: Win, 5 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 0 BB, 5 K Aug. 25 against Kansas City Royals
Has never faced the Mets
Was 3-9 with a 5.66 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 84 K’s in 90 2/3 IP between Double-A and Triple-A this year

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:50 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Mets -110 (bet $110 to win $100) | Phillies -110 (bet $110 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+150) | Phillies +1.5 (-185)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 6, Phillies 4

Moneyline

Severino is in a groove and so are the Metropolitans. New York is 12-2 over its last 14 games; its pitching has cranked out a fine 2.14 over that stretch.

Allard logged a 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP over his 3 most recent turns at Triple-A Lehigh Valley.

The Over is the top leverage play in this one, but METS (-110) has value.

Run line/Against the spread

The tag here, especially if you can still get a +155, makes New York a worthy play on the Run Line. Both clubs are right on the league average for frequency of 1-run games. Mostly a coin flip with the above ML action, and the play could depend on nuanced line moves either way.

PASS or take this instead of the ML.

Over/Under

Six of the last 9 Mets-Phillies games at Citizens Bank Park have hit the Over. And the Over has cashed in 5 of Philly’s last 7 games.

There is some slight fade to the Severino and Allard lines. Expected ERAs are higher. The Mets have not put up gaudy numbers in their recent surge, but they were certainly comfy at the plate Friday when they had a pair of doubles and 4 round-trippers among 11 hits.

On a warm day, look for the OVER 9 (+100).

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (80-66) and Philadelphia Phillies (88-58) meet Friday to open a 3-game NL East series. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network/ESPN+). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-2

New York is continuing a road trip that opened with the Mets taking 2 of 3 at the Toronto Blue Jays Monday-Wednesday. Since Aug. 29, New York’s National League entry is 11-2, and that stretch includes a 6-1 mark on the road.

Philadelphia has won 3 straight games and is 14-8 over its last 18. That span includes the Phillies going 8-2 in their own yard. For the season, the Phils own a robust .667 win percentage in home games.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Aaron Nola

Quintana (8-9, 4.09 ERA) makes his 29th start. He has a 1.31 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 7.0 K/9 in 152 IP.

Last outing: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-0 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Saturday
Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 0-2, 3.94 ERA (59 1/3 IP, 26 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 10.8 K/9 in 11 starts
Has allowed just 1 ER over his last 18 IP after having posted 8.27 ERA over his 1st 4 starts in August

Nola (12-7, 3.41 ERA) is making his 30th start. He has authored a 1.18 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 8.5 K/9 through 177 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 9-5 defeat at Miami Marlins Saturday
Career vs. Mets: 10-8, 3.21 ERA (159 2/3 IP, 57 ER), 1.10 WHIP, 11.2 K/9 in 27 starts

Who’s going yard? Here’s a breakdown of today’s best home run props with our top picks. Include the BetMGM bonus code SBWIRE to score a $1,500 first-bet offer.

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of MLB odds. Lines last updated at 9:20 a.m. ET.

Moneyline: Mets +135 (bet $100 to win $135) | Phillies -160 (bet $160 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-155) | Phillies -1.5 (+125)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

Philadelphia is 5-2 across the last 7 series meetings. Both New York wins in that set were by 1-run margins; 4 of Philly’s 5 wins were by 4-plus runs. The Mets are 2-6 over their last 8 games at Citizens Bank Park. The Phils have won 5 straight series openers.

The Phillies are a solid play in this Friday series opener against a starting pitcher who figures as being too far out over his skis of late. Over his last 4 starts, Quintana has benefited from a high rate of stranding batters and a low rate of fly balls leaving the yard as home runs. On Friday, he’s up against a Philadelphia nine that leads the league in OPS against southpaws (.800).

The last time Nola faced the Mets, he threw a shutout (May 14).

Both bullpens are solid, but the New York relief corps last some recent analytics that paint the picture of giving some ground.

FanDuel Sportsbook offers the leverage tag here: BACK THE PHILLIES (-158).

Run line/Against the spread

PASS: Better leverage can be found on the ML.

Over/Under

Philadelphia owns an .876 OPS over its last 9 games. With the way the Phils hit lefties and with Quintana being a fade candidate, the OVER 8.5 (-110) — with that price being available at FanDuel Sportsbook — is a slight lean.

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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (27-36) and Philadelphia Phillies (45-19) wrap up a 2-game London Series at London Stadium Sunday. First pitch is scheduled for 10:10 a.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 4-1

The Phillies picked up a 7-2 win Saturday at London Stadium as moderate favorites (-157) with the Under (9.5) just hanging on. 1B Bryce Harper went 3-for-4 with a solo HR and pleased the crowd with a soccer-esque celebration a la Manchester City’s Jack Grealish after scoring a goal.

Philadelphia, which owns the best record in the majors, has won 4 in a row, and 7 of the past 8 games. The pitching staff has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of those 8 games, too. The Under is on an impressive 8-0-1 run in the past 9 games, and 11-2-1 in the past 14 outings.

The Mets saw a modest 3-game winning streak come to a close, while going 5-3 in the past 8 outings. The Under cashed, snapping a 5-0-1 run to the Over.

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Mets vs. Phillies projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Quintana (1-5, 5.17 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.39 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 62 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 4 K in 5-4 home loss vs. Arizona Diamondbacks June 2
2024 daytime splits: 1-1, 3.86 ERA (28 IP, 12 ER), 1.07 WHIP, .216 opponents’ batting average (OBA), 4 HR, 8 BB, 19 K in 5 starts
Career vs. Phillies (regular season): 0-2, 3.72 ERA (55 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 11.3 K/9 in 10 starts dating back to 2013
2024 vs. Phillies: 1 start, no-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 4 K in 6-5 road win in 11 innings May 16

Walker (3-1, 5.73 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 37 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 5 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 5 K in 5-4 home loss in 10 innings vs. St. Louis Cardinals June 2
2024 daytime splits: 2-1, 5.89 ERA (18 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.64 WHIP, .338 OBA, 3 HR, 5 BB, 12 K in 3 starts
Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.44 ERA (36 2/3 IP, 14 ER), 1.23 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 7 starts dating back to 2014
2024 vs. Mets: 1 start, no-decision, 3 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 1 K in 6-5 home loss in 11 innings May 16

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Mets vs. Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:33 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Phillies -142 (bet $142 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-162) | Phillies -1.5 (+134)
Over/Under (O/U): 10.5 (O: -106 | U: -114)

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Mets vs. Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 8, Mets 5

Moneyline

First-place PHILADELPHIA (-142) is a solid play to secure the 2-game London Series sweep, but don’t be surprised if there are plenty of twists and turns along the way.

Walker has been very giving in his 7 starts to date, but the Mets (+120) have the southpaw Quintana going, and he has also been hit hard at times this season.

Run line/Against the spread

If you’re a little more adventurous, Philadelphia -1.5 (+134) at plus-money is worth a look. However, play one or the other as it makes little sense to bet both the moneyline and the run line.

The Phillies pounded the Mets Saturday, but Walker is a little less of a sure thing since he has been knocked around at times. Still, with the Philadelphia offense backing him, it should result in another win for the powerhouse Phils.

Over/Under

OVER 10.5 (-106) might be the best play on the board.

The Philadelphia offense picked up 7 runs in Saturday’s game at London Stadium, but the New York offense wasn’t able to follow suit. However, the Mets could get well against Walker, who has coughed up at least 1 HR in 6 of his 7 starts, including a total of 8 long balls in just 37 2/3 innings.

The Over is 2-0-1 in Quintana’s past 3 starts outside of Citi Field, including an Over result against the Phillies May 16. The Over is 6-1 in Walker’s 7 starts this season.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (19-23) hope to avoid a 4-game sweep as they take on the Philadelphia Phillies (31-13) Thursday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 3-0

Philadelphia defeated New York 10-5 Wednesday, cashing as a -190 home favorite. After missing Tuesday’s win with a migraine, 1B Bryce Harper had a huge night, going 3-for-5 with a 1st-inning homer and a 2-run double in the 5th.

Mets manager Carlos Mendoza admitted after the Mets’ 5th loss in 6 games that his team is “just not clicking right now” as they enter Thursday already 11 games back of Philadelphia in the NL East. On the bright side, DH J.D. Martinez homered in the 8th inning, his 2nd in the last 5 games.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Quintana (1-4, 5.44 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 1.55 WHIP, 3.9 BB/9 and 6.1 K/9 in 41 1/3 innings

Last start: Loss, 5 IP, 4 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 3 K in 4-2 home setback to New York Mets Friday
Career at Citizens Bank Park: 0-2, 4.97 ERA (29 IP, 16 ER), 1.31 WHIP, 4 HR, 13.3 K/9 in 5 starts
Career vs. Phillies: 0-2, 3.75 ERA (50 1/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.21 WHIP, 11.8 K/9 in 9 starts

Walker (3-0, 4.82 ERA) makes his 4th start. He has a 1.34 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 18 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K in 8-3 victory at Miami Marlins Saturday
Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.24 ERA (33 1/3 IP, 12 ER), 1.17 WHIP, 6.2 K/9 in 6 starts
2023 vs. Mets: 1-2, 3.91 ERA (23 IP, 10 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 5.5 K/9 in 4 starts

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:31 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +122 (bet $100 to win $122) | Phillies -144 (bet $144 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the Spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-172) | Phillies -1.5 (+142)
Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: +100 | U: -122)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

BET PHILLIES (-144).

The Phillies are 24-10 in Walker’s starts since he signed a 4-year, $72 million contract after the 2022 season. His offense should be able to offer enough run support as only the Dodgers boast a better OBP (.345) vs. left-handed pitchers than the Phillies.

If you are looking to reduce the juice and prolong a sweat, pairing Phillies ML with Dodgers ML (-300 at home vs. Cincinnati) pays out roughly +125.

Run line/Against the Spread

PASS.

I personally rather avoid laying a run and a half on the home team in a division rivalry. Walker has surrendered more homers in his career to left-handed batters in less plate appearances against compared to right-handed batters. So, it would not come as a surprise if LF Brandon Nimmo went deep early on.

Over/Under

BET UNDER 8.5 (-122).

Despite struggling in Wednesday’s loss, the Mets bullpen still possess a 2.98 ERA, good for 3rd best in MLB. Quintana did allow 3 ERs or less in 5 of 6 starts to begin the season, so there is a decent chance he’s able to meander successfully through this Phillies lineup a couple of times and pave way to the pen.

Ultimately, New York just does not generate enough offense consistently. Plus, the Mets’ highest paid player SS Francisco Lindor is hitless in the 3 losses vs. the Phillies and is now down to a .200 average on the season.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (19-22) and Philadelphia Phillies (30-13) open a 2-game set at Citizens Bank Park Wednesday. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0 after a 2-game sweep at Citi Field Monday and Tuesday

The Phillies beat the Mets 5-4 in 10 innings Monday and then again 4-0 Tuesday. They have won 4 of their last 5 games and 11 of their last 13. Philadelphia is 24-19 against the spread (ATS) on the season and sits 1st in the NL East. It is 15-7 straight up at home.

The Mets have lost 2 straight to the Phillies, having come off a series in which they lost 2 of 3 to the Atlanta Braves. New York has lost 4 of its last 5 and 7 of its last 10. It is 20-21 ATS on the season. The Mets are 9-8 straight up on the road.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Joey Lucchesi vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Lucchesi makes his season debut. He had a 1.31 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 46 2/3 innings in 2023.

2023 road splits: 2-0, 2.59 ERA (24 1/3 IP, 7 ER), 23 H, 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K in 5 starts
Career vs. Phillies: 2-0, 1.29 ERA (14 IP, 2 ER), 0.79 WHIP, 8.4 K/9 in 2 starts and 1 relief appearance — last faced them in 2021

Suarez (7-0, 1.50 ERA) makes his 9th start. He has a 0.72 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9 and 9.2 K/9 in 54 innings.

Last start: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 9 K in 8-2 road win over Miami Marlins Friday
2024 home splits: 3-0, 2.08 ERA (26 IP, 6 ER), 12 H, 2 HR, 3 BB, 26 K in 4 starts
Career vs. Mets: 2-3, 4.03 ERA (30 IP, 6 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 9.3 K/9 in 6 starts and 7 relief appearances, including 1-1 with a 4.05 ERA (13 1/3 IP, 6 ER) in 2 starts last season

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +164 (bet $100 to win $164) | Phillies -196 (bet $196 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread: Mets +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+108)
Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -122 | U: +100)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

PASS.

The Phillies (-196) are just too pricey to take on the moneyline here. Suarez has been an ace this season, making the Mets as underdogs not worth the value either. Ultimately, pass on this one.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES -1.5 (+108).

The Phillies went 2-0 ATS in the 2-game set in Queens, playing as underdogs in the 1st game and then as favorites in the 2nd (a 4-0 win). Philadelphia is 11-11 ATS at Citizens Bank Park and 9-9 ATS as a home favorite. The Phillies have covered in every one of Suarez’s starts.

The Mets are 9-12 ATS following a loss, the 7th-worst team in that situation. New York also has a pitcher on the mound who is making his 1st appearance of the season and could have some rust.

Take PHILLIES -1.5 (+108).

Over/Under

LEAN OVER 7.5 (-122).

Philadelphia has gone Over in Suarez’s last 2 starts and scored a combined 22 runs over that span. It has been on fire offensively as of late, scoring at least 4 runs in 5 straight games. The Phillies have topped the total in 4 of their last 5.

The Mets are 1-1 O/U in this series and 19-22 O/U on the season. The Mets are the best Over-hitting road team in MLB with an 11-6 O/U record. With those trends in mind, take OVER 7.5 (-122).

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (71-83) and Philadelphia Phillies (85-69) play game 3rd game of a 4-game series Saturday. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is slated for 4:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: tied 4-4

The Mets suffered a 2nd straight loss Friday, falling 5-4 in the 10-inning series opener. N.Y. has been outscored 27-25 by Philadelphia over their 8 head-to-head matchups. The Mets are 21-23 against the NL East this season and have been eliminated from postseason contention.

Philadelphia’s victory Friday preserved its 5-game buffer as the top NL Wild Card. The Phillies averaged 5.18 runs per game at home, the 6th-most in MLB, which has led to their 45-31 record at Citizens Bank Park.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP Jose Quintana vs. RHP Zack Wheeler

Quintana (3-5, 3.02 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.3 BB/9 and 6.2 K/9 in 65 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 2 K in 8-4 home victory vs. Cincinnati Reds Sunday
2023 road stats: 2-3, 3.65 ERA (37 IP, 15 ER), .250 opponent batting average (OBA) in 6 games

Wheeler (12-6, 3.63 ERA) will make his 31st start. He has a 1.07 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and 10.0 K/9 in 181 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 2 BB, 5 K in 7-1 road win vs. Atlanta Braves Monday
2023 vs. Mets: No-decision, 5 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 8 K in 7-6 home win June 25
2023 home stats: 4-2, 4.25 ERA (78 1/3 IP, 37 ER), .228 OBA in 13 starts

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Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 7:39 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +155 (bet $100 to win $155) | Phillies -190 (bet $190 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-130) | Phillies -1.5 (+105)
Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Phillies 3

Moneyline

BET METS (+155).

These teams have split their 8-games and only 2 total runs separate them along those meetings. I think it’s worth a shot to put at least half a unit on the Mets to win this game at +155.

Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

I’ll stick to the moneyline with this game. I don’t want to put -150 on the Mets getting the run and a half and I’m not confident enough in the Phillies to cover this line.

Over/Under

AVOID.

After going under this total in their first 5 games against each other, these two teams have been over in their last 3 meetings. I really don’t have a good feeling either way in this matchup, so I’m going to just avoid it.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (71-81) open a 4-game series against the Philadelphia Phillies (83-69) Thursday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET (FOX). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 4-2

The Mets cruised to an 8-3 win over the Miami Marlins on Wednesday. N.Y. is 8 games back of the Chicago Cubs for the final Wild Card spot in the NL with only 10 games remaining on its schedule.

The Phillies beat the Atlanta Braves 6-5 in extra innings Wednesday as 2B Bryson Stott hit a 2-run double in the top of the 10th inning to win. Philadelphia has won 4 of its last 6 games and currently holds the top Wild Card Spot in the NL.

Mets at Phillies projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Ranger Suarez

Peterson (3-8, 5.22 ERA) makes his 20th start. He has a 1.59 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 100 IP.

Last start: No-decision, 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 10 K in a 5-3 home loss to the Cincinnati Reds Friday.
2023 road stats: 1-6, 7.35 ERA (49 IP, 40 ER) in 10 starts and 2 relief appearances.
Career vs. Phillies: 1-2, 4.83 ERA (31 2/3 IP, 17 ER) in 6 starts and 1 relief appearance.

Suarez (3-6, 3.80 ERA) makes his 21st start. He has a 1.40 WHIP, 3.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 through 113 2/3 IP.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 4 BB, 5 K in a 6-1 road victory over the St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
Home stats: 0-3, 4.94 ERA (54 2/3 IP, 30 ER) in 10 starts
Career vs. Mets: 1-3, 3.73 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 13 ER) in 5 starts and 7 relief appearances

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Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:44 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Phillies -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Phillies -1.5 (+115)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: +100 | U: -120)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 5, Mets 3

Moneyline

While the Phillies (-175) should come away with the win on Thursday, I’ll PASS on their moneyline at the current odds. If you can get Philadelphia’s moneyline at -160 odds or better, then I’d feel more comfortable playing it straight up.

Run line/Against the spread

PHILLIES -1.5 (+115) is the play in this game with Philadelphia being the much better team at this point in the season. In the first 6 meetings between these NL East teams this season, 5 of them were decided by at least 2 runs.

Peterson has dreadful road splits this season and the Phillies boast the 5th-best ISO (.225), the 8th-best wOBA (.356), and the 8th-best wRC+ (123) against left-handed pitching since the beginning of August.

Over/Under

UNDER 9 (-120) is the lean in this contest despite the Phillies swinging a hot bat right now. The Under is 5-1 in the first 6 meetings between N.Y. and Philadelphia this season.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Philadelphia Phillies (39-36) welcome the New York Mets (34-41) to Citizens Bank Park Saturday for the 2nd of a 3-game series. First pitch is set for 4:05 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1.

The Phillies were swept by the Mets earlier in the season but won 5-1 Friday evening. They are 7-2 over their last 9 games and 20-13 at home this season.

The Mets, on the other hand, are just 17-26 on the road this season and 3-7 over their last 10 games. New York has lost 5 of its last 6 and has slipped to 4th in the NL East.

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Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. LHP Cristopher Sanchez

Scherzer (6-2, 4.04 ERA) makes his 13th start. He has a 1.16 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 9.5 K/9 through 64 2/3 IP.

The 3-time Cy Young Award winner is coming off an 8-inning, 1-earned run appearance against Houston on June 19
The Mets are 8-4 in his 12 starts
Scherzer has struggled as of late, allowing 5 or more earned runs in 2 of his last 3 starts.

Sanchez (0-0, 3.24 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 8 1/3 IP.

The Phillies are 2-0 in Sanchez’s 2 starts this season
He allowed 0 earned runs in 4 innings against the As his last time on the mound

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:55 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Phillies +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+125) | Phillies +1.5 (-150)
Over/Under (O/U): 9 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Phillies 4, Mets 3

Moneyline

PASS.

I like the Phillies at home here, especially considering Scherzer has struggled as of late. New York also hasn’t played well on the road. Despite that, I’d take the run line for the better value.

Run line/Against the spread

BET PHILLIES +1.5 (-150).

Philadelphia is 4-2 on the run line this season as a home underdog.

New York, on the flip side, is one of the worst teams in the MLB as a favorite, just 14-35. The Mets are also the worst team in the MLB on the run line following a loss at just 14-26.

Given their struggles on the road as well and the value on the Phillies as underdogs, take PHILLIES +1.5 (-150).

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Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 9 (+100).

Despite not having played well lately, Scherzer remains one of the most awarded pitchers in baseball right now. Sanchez is also playing at a high level.

The Phillies have gone Under in 6 straight games and have scored 5 or fewer in 5 in a row. They are 28-40-7 O/U on the season. The Mets are 1-2 O/U in their last 3 games and are 33-38-4 O/U on the season.

Considering the trends, back the UNDER 9 (+100).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Philadelphia Phillies odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (34-40) and Philadelphia Phillies (38-36) open up a 3-game set Friday at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is at 7:05 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-0

The Mets dropped 2 of 3 to the Astros in Houston earlier in the week and are scuffling at just 7-13 over the last 20. They’re now 14 games behind Atlanta in the NL East. They’ve had the Phillies’ number, though, at 17-5 over the last 2 seasons.

The Phils have lost 2 in a row after a 6-game winning streak. They are 7-3 and 18-12 over the last 10 and 30 games, respectively. The Phillies are at 19-13 at home and 19-23 on the road. They’re going to have to play better within the division than 5-10 if they hope to make another run.

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Mets at Phillies projected starters

RHP Kodai Senga vs. RHP Taijuan Walker

Senga (6-4, 3.53 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 5.2 BB/9 and a 11.0 K/9 in 71 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 6 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K vs. St. Louis Cardinals Saturday
1 career start vs. Phillies: Win, 7 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 0 BB, 9 K May 30 at home

Walker (7-3, 4.31 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.28 WHIP, 3.6 BB/9 and a 7.7 K/9 in 77 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 8 IP, 1 ER, 7 H, 0 BB, 8 K last Friday against the Oakland Athletics
3 career starts vs. Mets: 0-2, 3.14 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 11 K in 14 1/3 IP

Mets at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets +100 (bet $100 to win $100) | Phillies -120 (bet $120 to win $100)
Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-190) | Phillies -1.5 (+155)
Over/Under (O/U): 9.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

Mets at Phillies picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 5, Phillies 3

Moneyline

I like the Mets here because Senga is really tough on lefties with a 2.02 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. He has also given up just 5 extra-base hits in 146 at-bats to lefties this year. If you can contain Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, you have a good chance. And the Mets swept the Phils May 29-June 1.

I’ll take the METS +100.

Run line/Against the spread

Another reason I like the Mets is because Walker’s WHIP is a bit of fool’s gold. He has a .274 BABIP, which is below his 11-year career’s average. His walk rate is up, and his K-rate below his career average. That tells me he’s getting lucky on where the ball has been hit. 1B Pete Alonso homered Wednesday, and it was his 1st since he came off the IL June 18. So he could be about to heat up.

The Mets have 9 wins since May 23, and 8 of them have been by multiple runs. There’s enough data here for me to take a chance on METS -1.5 (+155).

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Over/Under

These have not been Over teams. In fact, the Over is just 3-7 in their last 10 meetings with one another. Senga has been a part of an Under cash in 4 of his last 5 starts. The Mets won 2-0 in his only start against the Phils.

I’ll take the UNDER 9.5 (-115) without hesitation.

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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Additional MLB coverage:
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