Tag: Mets Padres odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Sunday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (42-47) and San Diego Padres (42-47) close out a 3-game set Sunday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 4:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-2

The Mets had their 6-game winning streak snapped with a 3-1 loss Saturday. They were only able to muster 3 hits in the game. They are now 12-18 over the last 30 games and sit 18 1/2 games back in the NL East.

Padres lefty Blake Snell delivered one of his best starts of the year. He went 6 shutout frames, allowing 1 hit and 3 walks while fanning 11. The Friars are 5-5 and 15-15 over the last 10 and 30 games, respectively. San Diego improved to 24-23 at home.

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Mets at Padres projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Joe Musgrove

Scherzer (8-2, 4.03 ERA) makes his 16th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 in 82 2/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 6 IP, 4 ER, 5 H, 2 BB, 9 K vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Tuesday
  • Last 5 starts vs. Padres: 3-1, 1.97 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, 37 K in 32 IP

Musgrove (7-2, 3.56 ERA) makes his 14th start. He has a 1.20 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 in 73 1/3 innings.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 11 K vs. Los Angeles Angels Tuesday
  • Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 0-5, 6.33 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 28 K in 27 IP

Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10:54 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

It’s unusual to see Mad Max with a 4 ERA. If the season ended today, it would be his worst ERA since 2011. He has owned the Padres, though, and been great at Petco. He’s 3-1 with a 2.61 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 63 K’s in 41 1/3 IP in 7 starts there. Musgrove has been great, too, with a 2.09 ERA in his last 7 starts. But I’m going to take the plus-money with Scherzer

Take the METS +105.

Run line/Against the spread

The RL is too saturated to pick a side here. So I’m looking at Scherzer’s K’s. He has fanned at least 8 in 4 straight starts and 6 of 7. So I’m willing to throw down on MAX SCHERZER OVER 6.5 K’S (-140).

He has had a rough 1st half, and he’ll look to make a statement as it closes.

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Over/Under

Saturday was an old-fashioned pitcher’s duel, and I look for Sunday to be the same. The Mets are 3-6-1 O/U over the last 10, and San Diego is 6-2-2. The Over is 4-6 over the last 10 games between the teams. This total has hit just once in the last 6 meetings, and I could see it dropping to 7.5.

Before it does, take the UNDER 8 (-115).

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New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The New York Mets (42-46) and San Diego Padres (41-47) play the 2nd of a 3-game set Saturday at Petco Park. First pitch is at 10:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 3-1

Don’t ring the alarm just yet, but the Mets have won 6 straight games after securing a 7-5 victory in 10 innings Friday in the series opener. That’s half of the win total they have over their last 30 games as they have stumbled to 17 1/2 games back of the NL East-leading Atlanta Braves. New York improved to 5-1 in extra innings by scoring 4 runs in the top 10th inning Friday in a game that had been tied 3-3 since the top of the 5th frame.

The Padres had won 4 of 5 entering this series and sit 9 1/2 games out in the NL West. The Friars are 8-12 and 14-16 over the last 20 and 30 games, respectively, as they just have not found consistency. San Diego is 5-15 in 1-run games.

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Mets at Padres projected starters

LHP David Peterson vs. LHP Blake Snell

Peterson (2-6, 6.61 ERA) makes his 11th start. He has a 1.67 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 in 49 IP.

  • Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 1 ER, 3 H, 3 BB, 3 K vs. San Francisco Giants Sunday
  • 1 career start vs. Padres: 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K on April 11

Snell (5-7, 3.03 ERA) makes his 18th start. He has a 1.26 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 11.8 K/9 in 92 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 5 IP, 0 ER, 7 H, 4 BB, 7 K Monday against Los Angeles Angels
  • Last 5 starts vs. Mets: 2-3, 3.60 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 28 K in 25 IP

Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:34 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Padres -175 (bet $175 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-140) | Padres -1.5 (+115)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 5, Mets 4

Moneyline

The bugaboos for Snell, other than injuries, have been his control. He reaches a ton of 3-ball counts, has a lot of walks and naturally doesn’t go very deep into games. He has only allowed 70 hits in 92 innings and has struck out 121. That tells you how good his stuff is. I like the Padres here, but not at this price – especially when the Mets have won 6 straight.

PASS.

Instead, let’s focus on Snell’s 7.5-strikeout number. He had 7 K’s in his last start and 8+ in 5 straight before that. So it’s within his abilities to fan 8 here. However, the Mets are the 5th-toughest team to strike out. Snell has also averaged just 4.5 K’s over his last 4 starts against them. I’ll take BLAKE SNELL UNDER 7.5 K’s (-120).

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets are hot, but the main concern is the 6.61 ERA on the mound Saturday. Peterson has been good in his last 2 starts, yielding just 1 ER in 10 IP. I think he can keep the Mets at least in the game to try to win the battle of bullpens.

Take the METS +1.5 (-140).

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Over/Under

San Diego is 7-1-2 O/U over their last 10 games and the Mets are 3-5-2. The Over is 4-6 in the last 10 meetings between the clubs. One of the teams has scored at least 5 runs in 7 of the last 8 meetings. There also figures to be a lot of traffic on the bases with the number of walks each pitcher gives up.

LEAN OVER 8 (-115).

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For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The New York Mets (41-46) open a 3-game road series against the San Diego Padres (41-46) Friday. First pitch from Petco Park is at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mets vs. Padres odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Mets lead 2-1

The Mets are hot. New York has won 5 straight games — all against the NL West — and is coming off a 3-game sweep over the NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks in the first half of a 6-game road trip. The Mets closed out the series with a 9-0 shutout win on Thursday.

The Padres are also coming off a series sweep. San Diego took all 3 games at home against the Los Angeles Angels, a series punctuated with a 5-3 victory on Wednesday. The Friars went 5-12 in the 17 games prior to their series with the Angels.

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Mets at Padres projected starters

RHP Justin Verlander vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Verlander (3-4, 3.66 ERA) makes his 12th start. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.3 BB/9 and 7.7 K/9 through 64 IP.

  • Last start: Win, 7 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 5 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 4-1 home win over San Francisco Giants on Saturday
  • Has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of his 11 starts

Darvish (5-6, 4.84 ERA) makes his 15th start. He has a 1.23 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 9.6 K/9 through 80 IP.

  • Last start: Loss, 6 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 6 K in 4-2 road loss to Giants on June 21
  • Went 1-2 with 7.71 ERA in last 3 starts before missing a couple of turns due to a non-COVID-19 illness

Mets at Padres odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 10 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -125 (bet $125 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-200) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Mets at Padres picks and predictions

Prediction

Mets 4, Padres 3

Moneyline

The Mets have allowed only 11 runs during their 5-game win streak and have won 4 of their last 5 road games. Verlander has allowed 2 or fewer runs in 7 of 11 starts this season and only 1 run across his last 2 outings.

Darvish is making his first start since June 21 and had a 7.71 ERA in his last 3 outings.

BET METS (+105).

Run line/Against the spread

The Mets’ 36-51 ATS record is the 2nd-worst in the league, but they have covered the spread in 6 straight games and in 9 out of their last 12.

The Padres have covered the spread in 5 straight games but were 3-12 ATS in their previous 15. They are 10-15 ATS as home favorites.

However, since we’re going with the Mets to win outright Friday that’s a much better value than taking Mets +1.5 (-200) with the run of insurance.

PASS.

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Over/Under

Verlander’s last 4 starts, and 5 out of his last 6, had fewer than 8 total runs.

Nine out of the Padres’ last 10 games have reached at least 8 total runs.

Four of the Mets’ last 5 have reached at least 8 runs but 5 of their last 10 have not.

With how Verlander has been pitching, I LEAN UNDER 8 (-115).

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New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The San Diego Padres (38-19) host the New York Mets (33-22) Tuesday at Petco Park for the 2nd of their 3-game series with the first pitch scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

N.Y. jumped on San Diego SP Blake Snell by scoring 3 runs in the top of the 1st inning and never looked back, winning the series opener 11-5. Mets 3B Eduardo Escobar hit for the cycle and SP Carlos Carrasco went 7 innings, allowing just 2 earned runs on 5 hits and 0 walks with 10 strikeouts.

Monday’s Mets-Padres meeting was their 1st of the season. The Mets won the 2021 series 4-3 with a plus-5 run differential.

Padres at Mets projected starters

RHP Taijuan Walker vs. RHP Yu Darvish

Walker is 3-1 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 4.6 K/9 in 40 2/3 IP over 8 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 2-0 Thursday at the Los Angeles Dodgers with 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 7 H, 1 BB and 2 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Padres: One start, a 4-3 loss in San Diego June 3 with 5 IP, 4 R (3 ER), 7 H, 4 BB and 2 K.

Darvish is 4-3 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 60 1/3 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: Lost 5-2 Wednesday at the St. Louis Cardinals with 7 2/3 IP, 5 ER, 7 H, 1 HR, 2 BB and 4 K.
  • 2021 vs. the Mets: One start, a 4-3 home win vs. N.Y. June 3 with 5 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 1 HR, 1 BB and 5 K.

Padres at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:51 a.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets +105 (bet $100 to win $105) | Padres -130 (bet $130 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets +1.5 (-205) | Padres -1.5 (+165)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Mets 3

Money line

LEAN PADRES (-130).

Darvish has better pitching peripherals than Walker and 4 of Darvish’s 6 pitches have a minus-run value (RV) whereas just 1 of Walker’s 6 pitches has a minus-RV, according to Statcast.

Darvish has been a lot sharper at home. Darvish is 2-1 at home with a 1.71 ERA (5.82 road ERA), 0.68 WHIP (1.41 road WHIP) and 5.0 K/BB rate (2.3 K/BB rate on the road).

I cannot fully get behind San Diego’s ML because New York’s lineup is far more productive vs. right-handed pitching than the Padres. In fact, San Diego’s lineup is 24th in wRC+ (86) and 26th in wOBA (.286) against righties, according to FanGraphs.

LEAN PADRES (-130).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Padres -1.5 (+165) is a no-go because they are 5-13 RL as home favorites and I wouldn’t bet San Diego’s ML and N.Y.’s RL even though the Mets +1.5 (-205) are 9-3 RL as road underdogs.

PASS.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 7.5 (-105).

The Over 7.5 (-120) has taken some sharp money hence it being pricier than the Under and N.Y. is 7-3-2 O/U as road underdogs, which explains the “lean.”

But, these teams have a combined 5-12 O/U when these starters get the nod, the Padres are 6-11-1 O/U as home favorites and Petco Park is 27th in park factor, aka it’s extremely pitcher-friendly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at San Diego Padres odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (37-19) head to Petco Park Monday to start a 3-game series with the San Diego Padres (33-21) at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Padres vs. Mets odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York is 8-2 straight up (SU) in the last 10 games, which includes a split of a 4-game series at the Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday-Sunday.

San Diego is 5-5 SU in the last 10 but won the last 3 of a 4-game series at the Milwaukee Brewers Thursday-Sunday.

Season series: First meeting – the Mets won last year’s season series 4-3 despite being outscored 23-18.

Padres at Mets projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. LHP Blake Snell

Carrasco is 6-1 with a 3.63 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.1 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 57 IP over 10 starts.

  • Last start: 5-0 home win vs. the Washington Nationals Wednesday behind 5-scoreless IP, 4 H, 5 BB and 5 K
  • Never faced San Diego in 13-year career

Snell is 0-2 with a 4.80 ERA (15 IP, 8 ER), 1.06 WHIP, 8 H, 2 HR, 8 BB and 18 K in 3 starts.

  • Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 2 ER, 2 H, 3 BB, 6 K in 3-2 loss at St. Louis Cardinals Tuesday
  • 2021 vs. the Mets: 1-1, 2.45 ERA (11 IP, 3 ER), 6 H, 4 BB, 14 K in 2 starts

Padres at Mets odds and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:41 p.m. ET.

  • Money line (ML): Mets -103 (bet $103 to win $100) | Padres -117 (bet $117 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+165) | Padres +1.5 (-205)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -120)

Exclusive USA TODAY Network offer: Deposit $10 or more, get $200 in instant bet credits at Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Place your legal, online sports bets at Tipico. Let’s make this interesting. Bet now!

Padres at Mets picks and predictions

Prediction

Padres 4, Mets 2

Money line

BET 1 unit on the PADRES (-117).

The Mets are just 9-9 SU vs. lefty starters and their lineup ranks 16th in wRC+ (104), 15th in wOBA (.310) and 23rd in hard-hit rate (27.3%) against left-handed pitching, per FanGraphs.

Also, this is a “Pros vs. Joe’s” game in the betting market with the presumed sharp money being on San Diego’s ML. More money is on the Padres, while more bets have been placed on the Mets, according to Pregame.com.

Since professional bettors put up more dough than your average Joe, let’s follow the money. BET PADRES (-117).

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Run line/Against the spread

PASS.

The Padres are 7-16 RL at home, while the Mets -1.5 are 19-10 RL on the road. I wouldn’t bet San Diego’s ML and New York’s RL.

PASS.

Over/Under

BET 1 unit on UNDER 7.5 (-120).

These teams are a combined 4-9 O/U when these starters take the hill, the Padres are 6-16-1 O/U at home and Petco Park has the lowest park factor – meaning it’s the most pitcher-friendly venue in the MLB.

Also, there’s a line freeze in the betting market with a majority of the action on Over 7.5 (-105), but the total hasn’t budged off the opener, according to Pregame.com. This suggests oddsmakers are confident in their price and willing to take more pro-Over money.

Go the other way and BET UNDER 7.5 (-120).

Bet legally online with a trusted partner: Tipico Sportsbook, Sportsbook Wire’s official sportsbook partner in CO, NJ and soon IA. Bet now!

If you’re looking for more sports betting picks and tips, access all of our content at SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW, or try out our USA TODAY Parlay Calculator. Please gamble responsibly.

Follow Geoff Clark on Twitter. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter and like us on Facebook.

Additional MLB coverage:
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Gannett may earn revenue from Tipico for audience referrals to betting services. Tipico has no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. See Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. 21+ only. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA).

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