Tag: Mets Marlins odds picks prediction spread over/under betting line

New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Thursday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (70-70) and Miami Marlins (58-81) cap off a three-game NL East series Thursday at 6:40 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Marcus Stroman is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 9-12 with a 2.93 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 over 156 2/3 IP spanning 29 starts.

  • Owns an ERA that is a would-be career-best for a full season.
  • Has been quite good on the road with a 2.82 ERA over the last three years.

LHP Jesus Luzardo is the projected starting pitcher for the Marlins. Through 20 games (13 starts), Luzardo is 5-7 with a 7.00 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, and 4.5 BB/9 across 72 IP.

  • Struggled mightily through much of August but has been solid over his last two starts with 3 ER over 11 2/3 IP.
  • Has been beaten up by a low 64.5% left-on-base rate in posting a 7.15 ERA since the beginning of August.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 4:35 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -190 (bet $190 to win $100) | Marlins +155 (bet $100 to win $155)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (-108) | Marlins +1.5 (-112)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Prediction

Mets 6, Marlins 4

Money line (ML)

The Mets and Marlins split the first two games of this series but New York is an improved 8-3 over its last 11 games.

Miami is 14-23 over its last 37 games, but the Fish have won three straight series at home. They are 6-2 over their last eight home games against the Mets.

The season series is knotted at 7-7, and New York’s National League entry owns a slim 51-48 edge in run differential.

The best edge in this one is on the Mets but with the run line in play: PASS.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The Mets are 5-2 in their last seven series finales.

One strength of New York’s offense is its success a third time through when facing starters. That’s a problem area for Luzardo who has coughed up a .928 OPS in third-time-through situations.

Expect the Marlins to expose more of the soft underbelly of their relief corps.

BACK THE METS -1.5 (-108).

Over/Under (O/U)

A below-the-mean batting average on balls in play in high-leverage situations has been particularly hard on the New York nine.

Throw in some slight fade working against both bullpens, and TAKE THE OVER 7.5 (-115).

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Wednesday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (70-69) meet the Miami Marlins (57-81) Wednesday for the second game of their three-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

New York won the series opener Tuesday 9-4, which was keyed by a decisive 3-run top of the 6th inning punctuated by a Mets SS Francisco Lindor 2-run RBI single.

Season series: Mets lead 7-6.

LHP Rich Hill is New York’s projected starter. Hill is 6-6 with a 3.92 ERA (133 IP, 58 ER), 1.18 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9 and 8.1 K/9 in 26 starts and one relief appearance.

  • Last outing: No-decision with 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 2 BB and 4 K in New York’s 6-2 win at the Washington Nationals Friday.
  • Hill has two no-decisions this season against Miami with a 4.00 ERA (9 IP, 4 ER), 8 H, 3 BB and 7 K in two starts.
  • vs. Marlins on the current roster (50 PA): 5.84 FIP with a .300 batting average (BA), .359 wOBA, .444 expected slugging percentage (xSLG), 10.0 K% and 85.8 mph exit velocity (EV).

RHP Sandy Alcantara takes the mound for the Marlins. Alcantara is 8-13 with a 3.36 ERA (171 2/3 IP, 64 ER), 1.12 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.6 K/9 in 28 starts.

  • Last outing: Loss, 4-3, with 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 8 H, 0 BB and 6 K in Miami’s 4-3 loss at the Mets Thursday.
  • vs. Mets on the current roster (124 PA): 4.79 FIP with a .293 BA, .343 wOBA, .505 xSLG, 13.7 K% and 86.4 mph EV.
  • Home splits: 2-5 with a 2.34 ERA (84 2/3 IP, 22 ER), 0.93 WHIP and 4.8 K/BB in 13 starts.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 1:05 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -112 (bet $112 to win $100) | Marlins -108 (bet $108 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+155) | Marlins +1.5 (-190)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: +105 | U: -130)

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Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

“LEAN” to the MARLINS (-108) for a half unit because I give them a decent-sized edge in the starting pitching duel and there’s “reverse line movement“(RLM) headed in Miami’s direction.

Alcantara has better pitching peripherals against New York’s lineup than Hill does against Miami’s lineup. Also, Alcantara has a passing grade in EV, xSLG, barrel rate, expected wOBA and ranks in the 91st percentile in chase rate. While Hill grades in the 37th percentile or worse in xSLG, expected wOBA, barrel rate, K% and chase rate.

Nearly three-fourths of the cash wagered is on New York’s money line according to Pregame.com at the time of writing. However, the Mets have been brought down from a -128 consensus money line favorites to the current price, and it’s always a red flag in sports betting when the sportsbooks make the more popular side cheaper.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS because Miami’s run line insurance is far too pricey considering the roll the Mets have been on recently. New York is 8-2 in its last 10 games, seven of those victories by 2 or more runs.

For the record, the Mets are just 11-24 ATS as road favorites and the Marlins are 23-18 ATS as home underdogs.

However, Miami’s 56.1% cover rate as a home underdog isn’t high enough since the Marlins +1.5 (-180) has an implied win probability of 64.3%.

Over/Under (O/U)

Slight “LEAN” to the UNDER 7.5 (-130) for a tiny wager because there’s some RLM in the O/U market with the Under being ticked up despite a majority of bets and money being wagered on the Over. Plus the weather forecast is predicting double-digit winds blowing in from centerfield.

Finally, Miami’s lineup ranks in the bottom-4 of the MLB vs. left-handed pitching in advanced hitting metrics such as wRC+, wOBA and BB/K with the lowest hard-hit rate.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, expert picks and prediction

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (69-69) and Miami Marlins (57-80) play the opener of a three-game series at loanDepot park. First pitch is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets at Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Carlos Carrasco (0-2, 6.59 ERA) makes his 8th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 8.8 K/9 and 1.6 BB/9 through 28 2/3 IP.

  • Allowed three earned runs, four hits and a walk with five strikeouts across 5 1/3 innings in a no-decision against the Marlins last time out Thursday.
  • Has lasted at least five innings in each of his past three outings, and he has allowed just two home runs across the past 17 1/3 IP during the span.

Marlins RHP Edward Cabrera (0-1, 5.23 ERA) makes his 3rd start. He has a 1.35 WHIP, 3.5 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 through 10 1/3 IP.

  • Allowed three earned runs, seven hits and no walks with two strikeouts across four innings for his first major-league loss at Citi Field against the Mets last time out Aug. 31.
  • Has served up three homers in just 10 1/3 IP through his two major-league starts so far.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 7:00 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -175 (bet $175 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+100) | Marlins +1.5 (-120)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -120 | U: -105)

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Prediction

Mets 4, Marlins 3

Money line (ML)

The METS (-175) have alternated wins and losses in the past four outings. The last time the Mets faced the Marlins (+140) with Carrasco on the bump, it also resulted in a 4-3 win in Flushing. He has pitched well since returning to the team, and each of his past three outings have been one-run games. Look for another tight affair.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

The METS -1.5 (+100) are worth a small-unit play in this road series opener. They outscored the Marlins +1.5 (-120) 7-4 in a quick two-game sweep Aug. 31-Sept. 2. New York and Miami are just 6-6 against each other, so go lightly. But take a chance on the visitors working against a guy making just his third-career start.

Over/Under (O/U)

Play UNDER 7.5 (-105). The Under has cashed in five straight series openers for the Mets, while going 11-4-1 in the past 16 games on the road.

The Under is also 6-1 across the past seven for the Marlins against winning teams, too, while cashing in five of the previous six home games. Like the Marlins, the Under is 4-1 in the past five series openers, too.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (55-51) and Miami Marlins (46-61) continue a four-game NL East series Wednesday at 7:10 p.m. ET loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Carlos Carrasco is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He made his 2021 debut Friday and came off the 60-day injured list to throw 4 innings against the Cincinnati Reds with 1 run allowed on 3 hits and 1 walk, while striking out 4.

  • Owner of a 3.76 ERA, 1.20 WHIP over 1,246 1/3 career IP.
  • Did not go more than 3 IP in any of his three rehab starts in July.

RHP Zach Thompson is the projected starter for the Marlins. Across eight starts, he is 2-4 with a 2.33 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 through 38 2/3 IP.

  • The twenty-seven-year-old rookie has benefited from a .255 batting average on balls in play and a 7.7% HR/FB rate. Thompson has also pitched through a tough schedule and hasn’t yet pitched against a club ranked worse than 16th in OPS.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:10 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -160 (bet $160 to win $100) | Marlins +130 (bet $100 to win $130)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+111) | Marlins +1.5 (-140)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Marlins 5, Mets 4

Money line (ML)

Miami won the first two games of the series. With the twin setbacks in South Beach, New York has lost three games in a row and is just 8-12 over its last 20 games.

The Marlins’ wins come on the heels of a four-game losing skid. Miami is a dreadful 22-36 after playing near .500 ball through its first 49 games this season (24-25).

The pitching matchup in this game doesn’t warrant a full-unit play. There is too much uncertainty in the early innings of a game featuring hurlers who have combined for 42 2/3 IP in 2021. The lean on a partial-unit play is on MIAMI (+130).

The Fish have been undone by a woeful 11-22 mark in 1-run games. A team averaging 3.93 runs per game while allowing 3.91 RPG should not be 15 games below .500.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line. Consider Miami (+1.5) at a price closer to -130.

Over/Under (O/U)

The Over is 7-3 over the last 10 games between these two NL East foes in Miami.

Despite not piling up wins of late, the Mets offense is worthy of an uptick in respect. New York has clocked an above-average .759 OPS since July 1. The Mets bullpen has struggled of late and the Marlins ‘pen has been BABIP-lucky of late.

BACK THE OVER 7.5 (-107).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Miami Marlins odds and lines, with MLB picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (55-49) and Miami Marlins (44-61) open a four-game NL East series Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET at loanDepot park. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Marlins odds with MLB picks and predictions.

RHP Tylor Megill is the projected starting pitcher for the Mets. He is 1-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 through 35 1/3 IP spanning seven starts.

  • Enters this start on a roll with a 1.04 ERA and 1.04 WHIP across 5 starts in July.
  • Has benefited from a .270 batting average on balls in play and a 93.0% left-on-base rate.

LHP Jesus Luzardo is the projected starter for the Marlins. He is 2-4 with a 6.87 ERA, 1.63 WHIP, 9.5 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9 over 38 IP across six starts and seven relief appearances.

  • Was acquired from the Oakland Athletics last week. Owns a 4.79 career ERA.

Mets at Marlins odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 6:10 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -170 (bet $170 to win $100) | Marlins +140 (bet $100 to win $140)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets -1.5 (+105) | Marlins +1.5 (-130)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Marlins 4, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

The Mets are just 4-6 — with four 1-run victories — over their last 10 games. They are on the road after an 11-game homestand, and New York is just 6-9 over its last 15 games away from Citi Field.

The Marlins were swept over the weekend by the New York Yankees. The Marlins are just 6-14 since July 8. At home this season the Fish are a respectable 24-26 with a plus-21 run differential.

Luzardo is a wildcard, but MIAMI (+140) is a solid play. Megill is too far over his skis with a 2.04 surface ERA, and the New York bullpen isn’t in the best of shape heading into this set.

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

PASS on the run line and concentrate on the straight-up Miami play to get the best bang for your buck.

Over/Under (O/U)

Not much of a lean here — just a sliver of room on the UNDER 7.5 (-115).

For more sports betting picks and tips, visit SportsbookWire.com. Please gamble responsibly.

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Gannett may earn revenue from audience referrals to betting services. Newsrooms are independent of this relationship and there is no influence on news coverage. This information is for entertainment purposes only. We make no representations or warranties as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of any content.

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