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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (93-55) and Milwaukee Brewers (76-68) continue a 3-game series Tuesday. First pitch from American Family Field is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 3-1

The Mets hoisted crooked numbers in 3 innings en route to taking Monday’s opener 7-2. New York has won 5 consecutive games and has outscored foes 30-10 in that stretch.

The Brewers had been hitting the ball well at home before running into a strong Max Scherzer effort Monday. Milwaukee had logged a fine .801 OPS while going 10-3 over its previous 13 games at home.

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Mets at Brewers projected starters

RHP Carlos Carrasco vs. RHP Aaron Ashby

Carrasco (15-6, 3.70 ERA) has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 141 IP in 26 starts.

  • Has a 2.68 ERA over his last 7 starts
  • Owns a 1.66 ERA, 1.02 WHIP over his last 4 road outings
  • Struck out a season-high 11 batters in his last start

Ashby (2-10, 4.58 ERA) has appeared in 23 games, making 17 starts. He has a 1.43 WHIP, 4.0 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 in 96 1/3 IP.

  • Returning from the IL (shoulder) to serve as an opener in a bullpen game for Milwaukee
  • Expected to be followed by LHP Brent Suter (3.92 ERA, 1.26 WHIP)

Mets at Brewers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:08 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -115 (bet $115 to win $100) | Brewers -105 (bet $100 to win $105)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+140) | Brewers +1.5 (-180)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -115 | U: -107)

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Mets at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 5, Mets 3

Money line

Milwaukee has played well at home. A bullpen game provides some hidden leverage for bettors, because the Brewers relief corps figures as one undervalued by its surface numbers. It’s a pen that does well to get a decent number of ground balls, yet its been tagged by a relatively high number of home runs on fly balls.

Carrasco is coming off a 105-pitch outing and his making his 2nd start off a stay on the IL. The veteran righty has gone past 95 pitches 4 times this season. The next-time-outs have resulted in a 6.52 ERA.

New York is coming off a game that saw it clinch a playoff berth for the 1st time since 2016. White the Mets still have a division flag to fight for, they may be in all-ahead-two-thirds mode in this one.

BACK THE BREWERS (-105).

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID. Milwaukee is the lean in principle, but the juice wipes out any value potential.

Over/Under

Can’t parse any expected-vs.-actual results value here: PASS.

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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Monday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (93-55) and Milwaukee Brewers (76-68) open a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from American Family Field is at 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze Tipico Sportsbook‘s lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Season series: New York leads 2-1

The Mets are coming off a 4-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates to wrap up a 7-game home stand at 4-3. New York now finds itself on the road where recent weeks have netted a mixed bag of results. The Mets are 8-8 over their last 16 games away from Citi Field; they’ve registered a sub-par 4.76 ERA over that stretch.

The Brewers are fresh off taking 2 of 3 games from New York’s American League entry over the weekend. Milwaukee downed the Yankees 7-6 Friday and 4-1 Saturday before dropping a 12-8 slugfest Sunday.

The Brewers’ offense has come alive of late, and the club has played quite well in its home park. Milwaukee owns a .750 OPS over its last 22 games. The Brewers have logged a fine .801 OPS while going 10-3 over their last 13 games at home.

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Mets at Brewers projected starters

RHP Max Scherzer vs. RHP Corbin Burnes

Scherzer (9-4, 2.26 ERA) has authored a 0.92 WHIP, 1.6 BB/9 and 10.8 K/9 through 127 2/3 IP across 20 starts.

  • Coming off the 15-day IL (oblique) for this start; last pitched Sept. 3 against the Washington Nationals with 1 ER allowed across 5 IP
  • Owns a 4.58 ERA over his last 3 road starts

Burnes (10-7, 2.97 ERA) is tabbed for his 30th start. He has a 0.98 WHIP, 2.4 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 179 IP.

  • Has logged a 1.93 ERA over 3 starts against New York (2021-22)
  • Owns a 5.34 ERA over his last 5 starts

Mets at Brewers odds

Provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:02 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets -108 (bet $108 to win $100) | Brewers -112 (bet $112 to win $100)
  • Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+160) | Brewers +1.5 (-200)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 6.5 (O: -130 | U: +105)

Claim your risk-free bet up to $350. Catch the excitement and start betting with Tipico Sportsbook! New customer offer in CO and NJ. 21+, see Tipico.com for Terms and Conditions. Bet now!

Mets at Brewers picks and predictions

Prediction

Brewers 4, Mets 3

Money line

The venue and Scherzer coming off the shelf are keys here. Burnes has held current New York batters to a whiff-heavy .621 OPS.

The Mets have lost 3 road-series openers in a row. They are 4-6 over their last 10 road games against over-.500 foes.

BACK THE BREWERS (-112).

Run line/Against the spread

AVOID. Milwaukee is the lean in principle, but the juice wipes out any value potential.

Over/Under

Can’t parse any expected-vs.-actual results value here: PASS.

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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Saturday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (73-80) face the Milwaukee Brewers (92-62) Saturday in the second game of a three-game series at American Family Field. The Brewers won the series opener 5-1 Friday. First pitch is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets LHP Rich Hill (6-7, 3.87 ERA) makes his 30th start and 31st appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 148 2/3 IP.

  • He is 0-3 across 10 starts and one relief appearance since joining New York. The Mets are 4-6 when he starts.
  • Allowed 2 runs on 6 hits across 4 2/3 innings in a 3-2 win Sept. 19 against the Philadelphia Phillies his last time out.

Brewers RHP Corbin Burnes (10-4, 2.34 ERA) makes his 27th start. He has a 0.94 WHIP, 1.8 BB/9 and league-leading 12.6 K/9 through 158 IP.

  • Has won eight straight decisions and has not taken a loss in a game since May 25.
  • The Brewers have not lost in his last 11 starts. The last time they lost with him on the mound was July 7 at the Mets when he allowed 1 earned run on 6 hits over 5 2/3 innings.

Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds courtesy of Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:24 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +175 (bet $100 to win $175) | Brewers -220 (bet $220 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-125) | Brewers -1.5 (+102)
  • Over/Under: 7.5 (O: -107 | U: -115)

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Prediction

Brewers 4, Mets 2

Money line (ML)

The Mets only have one win in their last nine games. They are 29-47 on the road and 36-52 against winning teams this season.

You can’t ignore the fact that the Brewers have won Burnes’ last 11 starts. They did lose five games in a row and were swept by the Cardinals before Friday’s opener, but they had won 9 of their 12 games prior.

Take the BREWERS  (-220).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Six of the Mets’ last eight losses were by at least 2 runs. At 34-42 ATS, the Mets have the third-worst record against the spread on the road.

Only two of the Brewers’ last 20 wins have been one-run games. They are 85-69 ATS overall this season.

As I expect a Brewers outright win, you can bet they will also cover.

Take the BREWERS -1.5 (+102).

Over/Under (O/U)

Eight of the last 12 games for the Mets had totals of 8 or more runs, while five of the last eight games for the Brewers have had totals of 8 or more.

However, none of the four games between the teams this season reached 8 total runs.

Only one of Hill’s last six starts has had 8 or more runs, while half of Burnes’ last eight starts have had at least 8 runs.

We should expect more good pitching Saturday.

Take UNDER 7.5 (-115).

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New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds, picks and prediction

Analyzing Friday’s New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers odds and lines, with MLB expert picks and predictions.

The New York Mets (73-79) and Milwaukee Brewers (91-62) open a three-game series Friday at American Family Field. First pitch is set for 8:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze the lines around the Mets vs. Brewers odds with MLB picks and predictions.

Mets RHP Tylor Megill (3-5, 4.57 ERA) makes his 17th start. He has a 1.29 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 10.2 K/9 through 80 2/3 IP.

  • Pitched to a 7.66 ERA over 24 2/3 innings across his last five outings.
  • Has been hurt by a 17.4% HR/FB rate and has struggled with contact as his Barrel rate, HardHit rate and Average Exit Velocity are all in the 29th or worse percentile.

Brewers LHP Eric Lauer (6-5, 3.03 ERA) makes his 19th start and 23rd appearance. He has a 1.14 WHIP, 3.1 BB/9 and 8.8 K/9 through 107 IP.

  • Has a 1.90 ERA and allowed only 3 home runs across 42 2/3 innings spanning his last eight starts.
  • His xFIP and xERA are nearly a full-run higher than his surface ERA as he has benefitted from a well-below-average .251 BABIP and well-above-average 80.5% left on base rate.

Mets at Brewers odds, lines, picks and prediction

MLB odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports for a full list. Odds last updated at 10:25 a.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mets +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Brewers -145 (bet $145 to win $100)
  • Against the spread/ATS: Mets +1.5 (-175) | Brewers -1.5 (+140)
  • Over/Under: 8.5 (O: -102 | U: -122)

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Prediction

Brewers 6, Mets 3

Money line (ML)

Milwaukee enters Friday’s contest on a five-game losing skid after being swept at home in a four-game series by the St. Louis Cardinals. New York comes in with just one win in its last eight games.

The Mets have struggled on the road all season, evidenced by their 29-46 record away from Citi Field, and have found no success against left-handed starters against whom they are 17-32.

The Brewers have an edge here in the starting pitching matchup and in relief pitching. This should be an excellent “get right” spot for them.

Back the BREWERS (-145).

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Run line/Against the spread (ATS)

Megill has allowed 4 or more earned runs in five of his nine starts since the beginning of August, so there may be adequate opportunity Friday for the Brewers to get their bats back in order after scoring just 10 runs in their four-game series against the Cardinals.

Milwaukee’s bullpen is second in SIERA, xFIP and K-BB% over the last 14 days, while New York is very middle-of-the-pack across those categories through the same timeframe.

Anticipating Milwaukee’s bullpen to hang on to any lead it’s given by Lauer, consider there is some value to be had with a play on MILWAUKEE -1.5 (+140).

Over/Under (O/U)

This number feels too low for two starting pitchers of this caliber, particularly at hitter-friendly Am Fam Field.

There should be enough action Friday to reach the OVER 8.5 (-102).

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