Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Wednesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

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The Dallas Mavericks (49-30) pay a visit to the Miami Heat (44-35) Wednesday. Tip-off from Kaseya Center is set for 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s lines around the Mavericks at Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

Season series: Dallas leads 1-0 with a 114-108 home win on March 7

Dallas routed the Charlotte Hornets 130-104 Tuesday while covering as a 12.5-point road favorite. G Luka Doncic had a triple-double with 39 points on 13-of-25 shooting, 12 rebounds and 10 assists. The Mavs have won 4 straight games.

Miami picked up a 117-111 win in double overtime over the Atlanta Hawks Tuesday while covering as a 3.5-point road favorite. G Tyler Herro scored 33 points while F Jimmy Butler added 25 and F Nikola Jovic scored 23. The Heat are 2-1 in their last 3 with 3 consecutive covers.

Mavericks at Heat odds

Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 6:19 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mavericks -240 (bet $240 to win $100) | Heat +198 (bet $100 to win $198)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks -6 (-106) | Heat +6 (-114)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 215 (O: -110 | U: -110)

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Mavericks at Heat key injuries

Mavericks

  • Not yet submitted

Heat

  • Not yet submitted

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

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Mavericks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 110, Heat 103

Moneyline

PASS. 

Dallas should win, but it’s not worth the risk. Look to the spread and/or total.

Against the spread

LEAN MAVERICKS -6 (-106).

Dallas has won each of its last 4 games and is 9-1 in its last 10 games. The Mavericks are also 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Dallas has won 3 of its last 4 matchups vs. the Heat and are 2-1 in the last 3 meetings in Miami.

Both the Heat (6-3-1) and the Mavericks (9-1) have been very good ATS in their last 10, which makes it hard to make a confident pick here.

Over/Under

LEAN UNDER 215 (-110).

The Under has hit in 4 of Dallas’ last 6 road games and is 7-3 in its last 10 overall. The Under has been safer for both teams this season, being 43-36 for Dallas and 46-33 for the Heat. The Under has also hit in 3 of the last 4 Dallas-Miami matchups.

Be aware the Over has hit in 7 consecutive games for the Heat.

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Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Saturday’s Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (37-40) and Miami Heat (40-37) meet Saturday night at the Miami-Dade Arena. Tip is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s lines around the Mavericks vs. Heat odds, and make our expert NBA picks and predictions.

The Mavericks suffered a 116-108 setback against the Philadelphia 76ers in the 3rd contest of the 5-game road trip, and Dallas is just 1-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) on the journey so far.

Overall, the Mavs are in a tailspin, winning just 3 times in the past 11 games, while going 1-3 ATS across the past 4 games overall. The Under has cashed in 4 in a row and 6 of the past 7 contests overall.

The Heat have dropped the past 3 outings, including the team’s most-recent game at home last Saturday against the Brooklyn Nets, 129-100. Miami is in the midst of a 9-22 ATS skid against the number.

These teams met in Dallas Jan. 20, and the Mavericks posted a 115-90 win as a 2-point underdog as the Under (218.5) connected.

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Mavericks at Heat odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 8:05 a.m. ET.

  • Moneyline (ML): Mavericks -105 (bet $105 to win $100) | Heat -115 (bet $115 to win $100)
  • Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +1.5 (-115) | Heat -1.5 (-105)
  • Over/Under (O/U): 224.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Mavericks at Heat key injuries

Mavericks

  • G Frank Ntilikina (knee) questionable

Heat

  • C Bam Adebayo (hip) questionable
  • F Nikola Jovic (back) out
  • G Kyle Lowry (knee) questionable

For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.

Mavericks at Heat picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Heat 101

Moneyline

The MAVERICKS (-105) are worth a play, mainly because of the possibility Adebayo sits for the Heat (-115).

Dallas is not exactly hot, either, losing 5 of its past 6 games overall. It did top the Heat earlier this season, and Miami could also be without Lowry, which would be a major issue.

Against the spread

The MAVERICKS +1.5 (-115) are struggling against the number lately, but they are a solid 3-1-1 ATS in the past 5 road games against teams with a winning home record.

The Heat -1.5 (-105) have managed to cover just 4 of the past 14 games at home, while going 2-10 ATS in the past 12 games when working on 2 days of rest, too. The Heat has managed to go 4-9 ATS in the past 13 after a straight-up loss, too.

Over/Under

UNDER 224.5 (-115) has cashed in 4 straight games for the Mavericks, while going 5-0 in the past 5 games on the road, too.

In addition, the Under is 7-0 in the past 7 for the Mavs on the road against teams with a winning home mark.

While the Over has cashed in 5 in a row at home for the Heat, the Under is 4-1 in the past 5 when working on 2 days of rest, and the Under is 7-2 in the past 9 against teams with a losing overall record.

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Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds, picks and predictions

Analyzing Tuesday’s Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat odds and lines, with NBA expert picks, predictions and best bets.

The Dallas Mavericks (33-24) head to South Beach Tuesday to play the Miami Heat (37-20) at the FTX Arena. Tip-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET. Below, we look at the Mavericks vs. Heat odds and lines, and make our expert NBA picks, predictions and bets.

Dallas had a 4-game winning and covering streak snapped by losing the second game of a home back-to-back with the Los Angeles Clippers 99-97 Saturday.

Miami has won 5 consecutive games – going 4-1 against the spread (ATS). The latest victory was a 115-111 decision over the Nets in Brooklyn, but the Heat failed to cover as 11-point favorites.

The Heat smacked the Mavs 125-110 in Dallas Nov. 2 as 2.5-point favorites and the Over cashed on a 211-point total.

Mavericks at Heat odds, spread and lines

Odds provided by Tipico Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1 p.m. ET.

  • Money line: Mavericks +145 (bet $100 to win $145) | Heat -180 (bet $180 to win $100)
  • Against the spread: Mavericks +4.5 (-112) | Heat -4.5 (-108)
  • Over/Under: 208.5 (O: -112 | U: -108)

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Mavericks at Heat key injuries

Mavericks

  • SF Reggie Bullock (hip) doubtful
  • PG Trey Burke (shoulder) questionable

Heat

  • SF Jimmy Butler (shoulder) questionable
  • PG Tyler Herro (knee) out
  • SF Caleb Martin (Achilles) questionable

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Mavericks at Heat odds, lines, picks and predictions

Prediction

Mavericks 107, Heat 104

Money line

SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+145) for a small wager with the plan of betting their spread harder. Dallas matches up well with Miami and we cannot sleep on the Herro’s absence in this game. Herro scored 25 points on 55.0% shooting with 4 assists and 0 turnovers versus the Mavs Nov. 2.

Furthermore, the Heat crash the glass, pressure ball handlers and can get hot from 3-point land. The Mavs are eighth in offensive turnover rate, first in defensive-rebounding rate and third in both defensive 3-point shooting percentage and 3-point attempts allowed per game.

Also, Miami struggles at home against good teams and Dallas is ninth in net rating. The Heat are 3-4 overall versus top-10 teams with a minus-4.1 adjusted-net rating, according to CleaningTheGlass.com.

Finally, these teams play a similar style and a ton of half-court basketball, but Dallas gets better looks than Miami (according to ShotQuality.com). The Mavs have the third-best shot quality differential winning percentage while the Heat are 10th.

Again, I’d only SPRINKLE on the MAVERICKS (+145) because their spread is the much sharper play.

Against the spread

Definitely BET the MAVERICKS +4.5 (-112) heavier than or instead of their money line. It is favorite wager in this game

Dallas is 7-4 ATS versus teams with a winning record and has covered two of its past three meetings with the Heat, while Miami has a minus-4.2 ATS margin versus top-10 teams (ranked 25th).

Over/Under

PASS.

My prediction is higher than the projected total, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in those numbers because there’s too much variance for how this game plays out.

Both teams play at a bottom-10 pace, so there might be fewer possessions, which typically means less scoring. But Miami is 11th in 3-point attempt rate and Dallas is seventh, and if either team gets hot from deep then an Under bet is in peril.

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