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The Dallas Mavericks (9-7) face off with the Miami Heat (6-7) Sunday. Tip-off from Kaseya Center is set for 6 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NBA odds around the Mavericks vs. Heat odds and make our expert NBA picks and predictions for the best bets.
Season series: First meeting; Dallas swept 2-0 last season
Dallas walked away with a 123-120 victory at the Denver Nuggets Friday while covering as a 4.5-point underdog. F Naji Marshall scored a career-high 26 points on 11-of-15 shooting off the bench for the Mavs, who have won 4 straight.
Miami routed the Philadelphia 76ers 106-89 Monday while covering as a 2.5-point home favorite. F Jimmy Butler had his best game of the year in the win, putting up 30 points with 5 assists and finishing with a +/- of +29. The Heat have held opponents to under 100 points in 2 of their last 3 wins.
Mavericks at Heat odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of NBA odds. Lines last updated at 11:45 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline (ML): Mavericks +125 (bet $100 to win $125) | Heat -150 (bet $150 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Mavericks +3.5 (-115) | Heat -3.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 222.5 (O: -110 | U: -110)
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Mavericks at Heat key injuries
Mavericks
- G Luka Doncic (wrist) out
- C Daniel Gafford (shoulder) questionable
Heat
- F Jimmy Butler (illness) questionable
- G Terry Rozier (foot) probable
For most recent updates: Official NBA injury report.
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Mavericks at Heat picks and predictions
Prediction
Mavericks 108, Heat 102
Moneyline
PASS.
I like the Mavericks to win here as slight +125 underdogs, but I am recommending passing on this bet because I am not a fan of doubling down for a team’s ML and spread. However, if you are okay with the risk, then you can divvy up units between here and the spread, but I recommend passing and playing the spread and/or Over/Under instead.
Against the spread
BET MAVERICKS +3.5 (-115).
Dallas has played well even with Doncic out and covered the spread in each of its last 4 games, while the Heat are 2-2 ATS in their last 4. The Mavericks have also covered 4 of the last 5 meetings.
After having nearly a week-long break, expect for the Heat to come out rusty, which will also help the Mavs cover here.
Over/Under
LEAN UNDER 222.5 (-110).
The Under has hit in each of the last 2 meetings between these squads and is 4-1 in the last 5.
With Doncic out, the Mavs are worse offensively and better defensively, and with how underwhelming Miami’s offense has been, the Under is the safer play here.
This is a lean because the Over is 2-0-1 in Dallas’ last 3 games and 3-1 in Miami’s last 4.
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