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The Dayton Flyers (5-0) and No. 12 North Carolina Tar Heels (3-1) meet Monday in a first-round game of the holiday-week Maui Invitational in Honolulu. The opening tip at the Lahaina Civic Center is slated for 11:30 p.m. ET (ESPN2). Let’s analyze FanDuel Sportsbook’s college basketball odds around the Dayton vs. North Carolina odds, and make our expert college basketball picks and predictions.
Dayton last played on Wednesday, clocking a home-floor triumph over the 15.5-point underdog New Mexico Lobos. The Flyers drained a season-high 10 triples and were a rebounding plus-9 in winning 74-53. A high-frequency team when it comes to launching 3s, Dayton shot just 27.8% from distance over its first 3 games; they have connected on 36% of their treys in 2 games since.
North Carolina has already played a game in Hawaii. On Friday night (Saturday 12:30 a.m. ET start time), the Tar Heels covered a -15.5 spread in knocking off Hawaii 87-69. UNC survived an iffy rebounding night, allowing 15 UH offensive boards, by shooting 56.5% (effective) from the field, getting to the foul line 34 times and logging a plus-8 in turnover margin.
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Dayton vs. North Carolina odds
Provided by FanDuel Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list of college basketball odds. Lines last updated at 1:29 a.m. ET.
- Moneyline: Dayton +240 (bet $100 to win $240) | North Carolina -300 (bet $300 to win $100)
- Against the spread (ATS): Dayton +7.5 (-115) | North Carolina -7.5 (-105)
- Over/Under (O/U): 155.5 (O: -115 | U: -105)
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Dayton vs. North Carolina picks and predictions
Prediction
North Carolina 80, Dayton 70
Moneyline
No interest. PASS.
Against the spread
North Carolina is 6-2 ATS over its last 8 November games. Over its last 5 games when lined as an underdog of 5 points or more, Dayton is 1-3-1.
The Flyers’ 3-point shooting has been better in its last 2 games, but 1 of those games was against a D-III foe (Capital on Nov. 16) and UD’s overall perimeter game has not been what the smaller five needs to compete at a perhaps-top-25 level. Dayton enters Monday’s tilt shooting just 30.1% from distance. UD has also been leaving some points on the board when launching uncontested 15-footers: the Flyers have shot just 62% from the free-throw line.
UNC does not need the perimeter game cranking to be a highly effective offense. And the Tar Heels have a big size advantage in this matchup. They also have a few days’ advantage when it comes to the travel acclimation for this game.
Dayton has often played in these high-profile, resort-town tournaments in November, but usually the Flyers have played a slightly tougher early slate to perhaps be a bit more up to speed. That’s not the case this November. UD’s toughest foe so far has been KenPom No. 62 Northwestern (Nov. 9), and the Flyers trailed the Wildcats heading into the last 8 minutes of a home game against them before winning 71-66.
Up-tempo North Carolina has enough of a chance to bang out a double-digit win here that the value is on that side.
BACK THE TAR HEELS -7.5 (-105).
Over/Under
The last 11 times Dayton has been an underdog, the Under has gone 9-2.
These are 2 veteran teams that take good care of the basketball. The pace comparison makes for a sharp contrast with slow and deliberate UD up against quick-trigger UNC.
But Dayton’s defense looks to be ahead of its offense so far. With the neutral floor and perhaps some schedule-induced reasoning for throttling back late in the game, the UNDER 155.5 (-105) is the value side here.
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