UFC on ESPN+ 51: Manel Kape vs. Matheus Nicolau odds, picks and prediction

Previewing Saturday’s UFC on ESPN+ 51 fight between Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau, with MMA odds, picks, tips and predictions.

In a flyweight bout on Saturday’s main card, Manel Kape and Matheus Nicolau meet at UFC on ESPN+ 51 – also known as UFC Fight Night 187 or UFC Vegas 21 – at the UFC’s APEX Facility in Las Vegas. The early prelims kick off at 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+, and then the main card on ESPN+ at 8 p.m. Below, we analyze the UFC on ESPN+ 51 odds and lines, with picks and predictions.

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UFC on ESPN+ 51 Kape vs. Nicolau: Odds, spread and lines

Odds via BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:22 a.m. ET.

  • Fight result (2-way line): Kape -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Nicolau +110 (bet $100 to win $110)
  • Over/Under: 2.5 rounds (Over -140 | Under +115)
  • Will the fight go the distance? (Yes -105 | No -115)

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UFC on ESPN+ 51 Kape vs. Nicolau: Odds, lines, predictions and picks

Records: Kape 15-5 | Nicolau 15-3-1

Fight result (2-way line or money line)

The Portuguese native KAPE (-135) lost a unanimous decision to Alexandre Pantoja in his UFC debut on Feb. 6, 2021, on the Overeem-Volkov card. Kape had registered three KO/TKO victories prior to arriving at the UFC level.

Nicolau will be making his second try at the UFC after going 3-1 in his first go-around, including a unanimous-decision win over Louis Smolka at UFC 219 on Dec. 30, 2017.

Kape is a powerful puncher and a well-rounded fighter who can also get it done on the ground. That versatility will serve him well against the black belt Nicolau, who will be looking to damage Kape with kicks to the calves. If Kape can limit the damage to his legs, he’ll win this one going away.

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Over/Under (O/U)

Both of these young fighters are looking to stick around the UFC level for a while, and Kape is looking for his first-ever win with the company.

There will be nerves, as he tries for win No. 1, and Nicolau tries to get it right in his second go-around.

The books consider the distance bet a coin flip, but I think YES (-105) ‘WILL THE FIGHT GO THE DISTANCE?’ is a tremendous play given the inexperience on both sides.

They will be careful, they will not do things to put themselves in danger, and I believe KAPE ON POINTS (+300) is worth a look, too.

To watch the early prelims and prelims, sign up for ESPN+ now.

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UFC Fight Night 187 predictions: Edwards or Muhammad in welterweight showdown?

Check out our staff members’ picks for the UFC Fight Night 187 main card, featuring Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad.

Edwards
vs.
Muhammad
Cirkunov
vs.
Spann
Ige
vs.
Tucker
Grant
vs.
Martinez
Kape
vs.
Nicolau
Anders
vs.
Stewart
MMA Junkie readers’
consensus picks
2021: 18-15
edwards2021
Edwards
(68%)
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
(51%)
ige2021
Ige
(65%)
martinez2021
Martinez
(72%)
nicolau2021
Nicolau
(50.1%)
stewart2021
Stewart
(61%)
Dan Tom
@DanTomMMA
2021: 25-13
trophy copy 2020 Champion
edwards2021
Edwards
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
nicolau2021
Nicolau
stewart2021
Stewart
Ken Hathaway
@kenshathaway
2021: 24-14
trophy copy 2018 Champion
muhammad2021
Muhammad
spann2021
Spann
tucker2021
Tucker
martinez2021
Martinez
nicolau2021
Nicolau
stewart2021
Stewart
Danny Segura
@dannyseguratv
2021: 24-14
edwards2021
Edwards
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
stewart2021
Stewart
Brian Garcia
@thegoze
2021: 23-15
trophy copy 2017 Champion
edwards2021
Edwards
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
anders2021
Anders
John Morgan
@MMAjunkieJohn
2021: 23-15
edwards2021
Edwards
spann2021
Spann
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
stewart2021
Stewart
George Garcia
@MMAjunkieGeorge
2021: 23-15
muhammad2021
Muhammad
spann2021
Spann
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
anders2021
Anders
Simon Samano
@SJSamano
2021: 22-16
edwards2021
Edwards
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
nicolau2021
Nicolau
stewart2021
Stewart
Abbey Subhan
@kammakaze
2021: 21-17
edwards2021
Edwards
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
nicolau2021
Nicolau
stewart2021
Stewart
Farah Hannoun
@Farah_Hannoun
2021: 20-18
muhammad2021
Muhammad
cirkunov2021
Cirkunov
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
stewart2021
Stewart
Simon Head
@simonhead
2021: 20-18
trophy copy 2019 Champion*
edwards2021
Edwards
spann2021
Spann
ige2021
Ige
grant2021
Grant
nicolau2021
Nicolau
stewart2021
Stewart
Mike Bohn
@MikeBohnMMA
2021: 20-18
trophy copy 2014 Champion
edwards2021
Edwards
spann2021
Spann
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
anders2021
Anders
Nolan King
@mma_kings
2021: 19-19
edwards2021
Edwards
spann2021
Spann
ige2021
Ige
martinez2021
Martinez
kape2021
Kape
stewart2021
Stewart
Matt Erickson
@MMAjunkieMatt
2021: 18-20
muhammad2021
Muhammad
spann2021
Spann
tucker2021
Tucker
martinez2021
Martinez
nicolau2021
Nicolau
anders2021
Anders

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The UFC stays on its home turf in Las Vegas this week with a welterweight clash atop the bill.

UFC Fight Night 187 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.

(Click here to open a PDF of the staff picks grid in a separate window.)

Get action on UFC Fight Night 187: Place your legal, online bets in CO, IA, IN, MI, NJ, PA, TN, VA, WV at BetMGM Sportsbook. New customer offer: Risk-free first bet. Bet now!

In the main event, [autotag]Leon Edwards[/autotag] (18-3 MMA, 10-2 UFC) takes on replacement opponent [autotag]Belal Muhammad[/autotag] (18-3 MMA, 9-3 UFC) at welterweight. Edwards is a -275 favorite at BetMGM, and he has a 9-4 lead in the picks from our 13 editors, writers, videographers and radio hosts.

In the co-feature, [autotag]Misha Cirkunov[/autotag] (15-5 MMA, 6-3 UFC) meets [autotag]Ryan Spann[/autotag] (18-6 MMA, 4-1 UFC) at light heavyweight. Cirkunov is a slim -125 favorite, but it’s Spann with a 7-6 edge in the picks.

It’s a close fight from a betting perspective between featherweights [autotag]Dan Ige[/autotag] (14-3 MMA, 6-2 UFC) and [autotag]Gavin Tucker[/autotag] (13-1 MMA, 4-1 UFC) with Ige a -155 favorite. But he has a big 11-2 lead in the picks.

[autotag]Jonathan Martinez[/autotag] (13-3 MMA, 4-2 UFC) is the main card’s biggest favorite at -300 at bantamweight against [autotag]Davey Grant[/autotag] (10-4 MMA, 3-3 UFC). He’s also the biggest favorite from our staff pickers, near unanimous at 12-1.

[autotag]Manel Kape[/autotag] (15-5 MMA, 0-1 UFC) is a -140 favorite at flyweight against [autotag]Matheus Nicolau[/autotag] (15-2-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC), and he’s got just a narrow 7-6 edge in our picks.

And to open the main card, [autotag]Darren Stewart[/autotag] (12-6 MMA, 5-5 UFC) is a -185 favorite at middleweight against [autotag]Eryk Anders[/autotag] (13-5 MMA, 5-5 UFC), and he’s got a big 9-4 lead in the picks.

In the MMA Junkie reader consensus picks, Edwards (68 percent), Cirkunov (51 percent), Ige (65 percent), Martinez (72 percent), Nicolau (50.1 percent) and Stewart (61 percent) are the choices.

Check out all the picks above.

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UFC Fight Night 187: Make your predictions for Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad

We want your predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 187 event in Las Vegas.

We want your predictions for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 187 event in Las Vegas.

Our staff picks feature includes the consensus picks from MMA Junkie readers. Simply cast your vote for each bout below, and we’ll use the official tallies that are registered by Thursday at noon ET (9 a.m. PT).

Those MMA Junkie reader consensus picks will be part of the UFC Fight Night 187 main card staff predictions we release Friday ahead of the event. UFC Fight Night 187 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The event streams on ESPN+.

Make your picks for the fights below.